08/03/2007 11:00PM

Spa Babies for 8/5


Welcome to Spa Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile maiden contest at the meet, and hopefully will end up with a tidy profit.

Saturday’s result: Mythical Pegasus finished 2nd

Detailed analysis will return for Monday’s card:

Sunday, August 4, 2007
Race 2
6 1/2 Furlongs
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-old fillies
Purse $62,000

Nick Zito has already sent out a juvenile debut winner this meet, and his ESTHER GOT EVEN looks ready to roll on Sunday. A full sister to stakes-placed sprinter Debbie Got Even (7-3-1-1, $98,818, won debut at the Spa last year for Zito), the homebred shows steady workouts, and finds a short field for her unveiling.
LUCKY COPY has the potent Pletcher-Velazquez combination in her corner, but Lucky Copy is really bred for grass. The dam was Grade 3-placed on the lawn, and her only other foal to race, Copyco, went 0-3 on dirt before finding his stride on the weeds. CALL HER THE CAT and DISCREETPROBATION both rallied belatedly in the slower division of juvenile filly maiden special weights at Churchill Downs. The latter’s pedigree is chock-full of blacktype as she’s a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Britt’s Jules, Grade 1-placed Social Probation, stakes-placed sprinter Dirty Rush, and multiple stakes-winning sprinter Probationready.

1. Esther Got Even
2. Lucky Copy
3. Call Her the Cat

The play: Esther Got Even to win at 7-2 or more.

Race 5
1 1/16 Miles (Turf)
Maiden Special Weight (New York-breds)
2-year-old fillies

Purse $57,000

DOSE OF REALITY is bred both sides for turf, and makes first start for new ownership group after an even effort at Belmont. Trainer Gary Contessa shows a flat-bet profit over the last year with horses trying grass for the first time, and his filly should appreciate stretching out with a stamina-building workout on display.
Todd Pletcher finally got off the schneid with his juvenile maidens on Friday, and his entry of SIBLEY and DESAFINADO should be tough in here. The former is a half-sister to turf stakes-placed performer Margarita Maggie while Desafinado is a half to three first-turf winners including Irving’s Baby (Grade 3 dirt winner), and Grade 2 turf winner Deeliteful Irving. Desafinado’s dam banked almost 250K on the lawn. QUEEN OF PROTOCOL ran into a hot Pletcher firster named Sea Chanter in her career debut, but she was well-received at the windows herself, and passed some tired horses for the place. ON JODI’S ACCOUNT had the misfortune to face next-out Schuylerville runner-up I Promise in career debut. She has some stamina breeding on the bottom of her pedigree, and may show improved speed from her inside berth.
SHERINE took money for her debut, and is a half to a solid turf winner. With Red Ransom on the bottom of her pedigree, you have to think she’ll like the surface switch.

1. Dose of Reality
2. Sibley
3. Queen of Protocol

The Play: Dose of Reality to win at 3-1 or more.

Meet record based on starts, wins, top pick (after scratches) in the money, and profit/loss of that day's play ($2 wager): 16-2-7 (-$9.80)