08/03/2009 11:00PM

Spa Babies for 8/5

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Welcome to Spa Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile contest at the meet. Hopefully, we'll end up with a tidy profit.

Monday's results: 
Race 2:  EIRE'S RUN finished fifth
Race 3:  DROVER scratched; second choice KING KITTEN finished fifth
Race 5:  BEAUTIFUL SONG scratched; second choice CRYSTAL OCEAN scratched; third choice LISA'S KITTEN finished fourth 

Week 1 Recap:  12-2-5 (- $6.50)

Both good and bad wagering luck were thrown into the opening week mix.  Kid Kate was a SpaBaby top selection, but the bet on her nose became moot when her race was rained off the grass.  She won anyway at 9-2 odds.  Fortune smiled on us on Monday afternoon as top selection Eire's Kid ran poorly, but was bailed out in the wagering portion by 5-1 entrymate Ibboyee.  The quest for our fourth straight profitable Spa Baby summer sits at -$6.50.

Wednesday, August 5, 2009

Race 4
1 1/16 Miles (Turf)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-olds
Purse $51,000

1.  MILL POND (Friends Lake - Sunday Play, by Defensive Play)
TRAINER:  William Phipps
JOCKEY:  Edgar Prado
DATE FOALED:   April 13, 2007
STATE FOALED:   Kentucky
AUCTION:   $47,000 RNA weanling (Keeneland, November 2007); $130,000 yearling (Keeneland, September 2008)
SIRE RACE RECORD:   Grade 1 route winner (7-3-0-1, $696,400, 2-3 at two, unraced on turf, 1-2 in wet)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:   22-133 (17%) with juvenile runners; 0-43 with turf runners
DAM RACE RECORD:   Unraced
DAM PRODUCE RECORD:  3 runners, 2 winners, 3 juvenile runners, 0 juvenile winners, 2 turf runners, 0 turf winners, 2 wet runners, 0 wet winners
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  BARTER TOWN (half-brother, Grade 1-placed router, 13-3-5-1, $353,180, unraced at two, 0-1 on turf); PERFECT SUNDAY (half-brother, Group 3 winner on turf in England)
TRAINER INFORMATION:  1-3 (33%, $13.46 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile runners)

1A (AE).  RYVIT (Tapit- Ryvnine, by Broad Brush)
TRAINER:  William Phipps
JOCKEY:  Jose Lezcano
DATE FOALED:   March 9, 2007
STATE FOALED:   Kentucky
AUCTION:   $145,000 short yearling (Keeneland, January 2008); $160,000 yearling (Keeneland, September 2008); Withdrawn juvenile (Fasig-Tipton, February 2009); $120,000 juvenile (Fasig-Tipton Spring, May 2009)
SIRE RACE RECORD:   Grade 1 route winner (6-3-0-0, $557,300, 2-2 at two, unraced on turf, 0-1 in wet)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:   3-63 (5%) with juvenile debut runners; 4-31 (13%) with first-turf runners; 4-30 (13%, $4.48 ROI) with all debut runners in 2009 (all older winners, one on turf)
DAM RACE RECORD:   Unraced
DAM PRODUCE RECORD:  This is dam's first starter
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  TENNIS LADY (full sister, Grade 3 winner, 27-7-5-5, $283,047, 1-4 at two, won debut, 3-10 on turf, 1-2 in wet); CONCERN (full brother, multiple Grade 1 route winner, 30-7-7-11, $3,079,350, 1-7 at two, 0-1 on turf, 0-1 in wet); BROAD EXPECTATIONS (full brother, stakes-placed router, 10-3-0-1, $53,940, 1-1 at two, 0-1 on turf, 0-1 in wet); LUCKY CLONE (stakes-placed, 30-8-7-5, $169,345, 0-2 at two, 0-1 on turf, 0-1 in wet)
BROODMARE SIRE INFORMATION:  9-55 (16%, $2.25 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2009 (3 juvenile debut winners)
TRAINER INFORMATION:  1-3 (33%, $13.46 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners on turf; 1-6 (17%, $6.73 ROI) with all debut runners in 2009 (juvenile debut winner on turf with Lasix and Jose Lezcano on for this owner)
NOTABLE WORKOUT INFORMATION:  Worked 1 furlong in 11.2 prior to the May auction; July 6 workout matches entrymate MILL POND (finished ninth in career debut on turf at Belmont on July 11 with 25 Beyer); July 6 workout matches barn's juvenile SNEAKING SUSPICION (finished eighth in career debut on turf at Belmont on July 11 with 32 Beyer)

2.  CALIPARI (Mr. Greeley - Concentric, by Shadeed)
TRAINER:  Todd Pletcher
JOCKEY:  John Velazquez
DATE FOALED:   March 10, 2007
STATE FOALED:   Kentucky
BLACKTYPE SIBLINGS:  CIRCLE OF LIFE (half-sister, Grade 1 sprint winner at two, 10-3-1-2, $268,925, 2-4 at two, won debut, 0-1 on turf, 0-1 in wet)
AUCTION:   Withdrawn weanling (Keeneland, November 2007); $90,000 RNA yearling (Keeneland, September 2008); Entered juvenile (Fasig-Tipton, February 2009); $175,000 juvenile (Keeneland, April 2009)
SIRE RACE RECORD:   Multiple Grade 3 sprint winner (16-5-6-0, $474,452, 2-6 at two, unraced on turf, 1-4 in wet)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:   31-284 (11%) with juvenile debut runners; 33-328 (10%) with first-turf runners; 7-32 (22%, $2.38 ROI) with all debut runners in 2009 (one juvenile debut winner on turf, one older winner on turf)
DAM RACE RECORD:   Placed routing (10-0-1-0, $13,330, 0-1 at two, 0-3 on turf, cost $50,000 as yearling)
DAM PRODUCE RECORD:  7 runners, 5 winners, 5 juvenile runners, 1 juvenile debut winner, 4 turf runners, 0 turf winners, 5 wet runners, 2 wet winners
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  MAGIC SQUALL (half-brother, stakes-placed, 60-9-5-10, $129,159, unraced at two, 0-7 on turf, 3-8 in wet)
BROODMARE SIRE INFORMATION:  0 debut winners as a broodmare sire in 2009
TRAINER INFORMATION:   16-94 (17%, $1.32 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners on turf (9-39, 23%, $1.89 ROI at Saratoga); 19-85 (22%, $2.44 ROI) with all debut runners in 2009 (6 juvenile debut winners, 1 at this meet, 4 older winners on turf, 9 with John Velazquez aboard, 18 with Lasix)
NOTABLE WORKOUT INFORMATION:  Worked 1 furlong in 10.1 prior to the April auction; May 31, June 15 workouts match barn's juvenile GOOD TO BE SEEN (finished fourth in career debut on dirt at Belmont on July 16 with 37 Beyer, unraced on turf); June 15 workout went .04 slower than barn's juvenile RULE (finished third in career debut on dirt at Belmont on July 19 with 66 Beyer, unraced on turf); June 22 workout matches barn's three-year-old filly ETINCELLE (finished sixth in career debut on turf at Belmont on July 17 with 62 Beyer); July 6 workout matches barn's juvenile JACK IN THE PULPIT (19 Beyer on dirt, unraced on turf); July 17 workout matches barn's four-year-old filly VRAIMENT ROUGE (top Racing Post Rating of 95 on turf)

2B (MTO).  IN JUST WE TRUST (Forest Danger - Trust Fund, by Conquistador Cielo)
TRAINER:  Todd Pletcher
JOCKEY:  John Velazquez
DATE FOALED:   March 30, 2007
STATE FOALED:   Kentucky
AUCTION:   $190,000 weanling (Keeneland, November 2007); $275,000 yearling (Keeneland, September 2008)
SIRE RACE RECORD:   Grade 1 sprint winner (8-5-1-0, $423,000, unraced at two, 5-6 in main track sprints)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:    1-19 (5%) with juvenile runners (first crop)
DAM RACE RECORD:   Sprint winner (21-4-3-1, $41,047, 1-6 at two, 4-20 in main track sprints, 0-3 in wet)
DAM PRODUCE RECORD:  4 runners, 2 winners, 3 juvenile runners, 0 juvenile winners, 4 main track sprint runners, 2 main track sprint winners
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  MY TRUSTY CAT (half-sister, Grade 1 sprint winner, 31-8-8-2, $902,753, 2-6 at two, 6-18 in main track sprints, 0-6 in wet)
TRAINER INFORMATION:  78-328 (24%, $1.49 ROI) over the past five years with second-out juveniles (14-71, 20%, $1.28 ROI at Saratoga)

3.  VAMOS A VER (Smart Strike - Spring Star, by Deputy Minister)
TRAINER:  H. Graham Motion
JOCKEY:  Ramon Dominguez
DATE FOALED:   May 26, 2007
STATE FOALED:   Pennsylvania
SIRE RACE RECORD:   Grade 1 route winner (8-6-1-0, $337,376, unraced at two, unraced on turf)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:   37-263 (14%) with juvenile debut runners; 42-369 (11%) with first-turf runners; 4-46 (9%, $1.12 ROI) with all debut runners in 2009 (1 juvenile debut winner, 2 older winners on turf)
NICKING INFORMATION:  CURLIN (multiple Grade 1 winner, 16-11-2-2, $10,501,800, unraced at two, 0-1 on turf, 2-2 in wet); TENPINS (Grade 2 route winner, 17-9-3-2, $1,133,448, unraced at two, unraced on turf, 2-4 in wet); SUPER FREAKY (Grade 3 turf winner, 20-3-4-3, $385,498, 1-4 at two, 3-14 on turf, first-turf winner)
DAM RACE RECORD:   Placed sprinting (1-0-0-1, $1,860, unraced at two, sprinted in the mud)
DAM PRODUCE RECORD:  This is dam's first starter
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  SPRING SEASON (half-sister, stakes-winner on turf, 30-5-7-8, $286,405, 0-1 at two, 4-22 on turf, 0-3 in wet)
BROODMARE SIRE INFORMATION:  11-91 (12%, $1.69 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2009 (2 juvenile debut winners, 4 older winners on turf)
TRAINER INFORMATION:  3-33 (9%, $0.,60 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners on turf (1-5, 20%, $2.16 ROI at Saratoga); 2-33 (6%, $0.27 ROI) with all debut runners in 2009 (both juvenile debut winners with Lasix, one on turf)
NOTABLE WORKOUT INFORMATION:  May 7, May 14, May 21 workouts match barn's juvenile NOAH'S DREAM (finished seventh in career debut on dirt at Delaware on June 29 with 43 Beyer, unraced on turf); May 7, May 14, May 21 workouts match barn's juvenile PENDULUM (finished second in career debut over Presque Isle's Tapeta surface on July 2 with 44 Beyer, 68 Beyer on dirt at this meet); May 21 workout matches barn's juvenile WHAT A WILDCAT (finished fifth in career debut on turf at Colonial Downs on June 21 with 25 Beyer); May 28, June 18, June 25 workouts match barn's juvenile SPANGLED STAR (finished ninth in career debut on turf at Colonial Downs on July 18 with 0 Beyer); June 5 workout matches entrymate CUTTER (finished third in career debut on dirt at Delaware Park on July 14 with 59 Beyer); June 12 workout matches barn's three-year-old filly ANSWER (finished eleventh in maiden special weight on turf at Colonial Downs on June 27 with 51 Beyer); June 12 workout matches barn's four-year-old filly JAZZ JAM (84 Beyer top on turf, best Racing Post Rating of 100 on turf in Europe); June 12, July 16 workouts matches barn's juvenile PEACE FIRE (finished first in career debut on turf at Colonial Downs on June 21 with 42 Beyer, finished fifth on turf in the Chenery Stakes at Colonial Downs on July 25 with 53 Beyer)

3X (MTO).  CUTTER (Saint Liam - Brite Diamond, by Deputy Minister)
TRAINER:  H. Graham Motion
JOCKEY:  Ramon Dominguez
DATE FOALED:   April 8, 2007
STATE FOALED:   Kentucky
AUCTION:   $20,000 RNA yearling (Keeneland, September 2008)
SIRE RACE RECORD:   Multiple Grade 1 route winner, 20-9-6-1, $4,456,995, unraced at two, 0-1 in main track sprints, 0-1 in wet)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:   2-24 (8%) with juvenile runners (first crop)
DAM RACE RECORD:   Sprint winner (15-3-1-2, $65,017, unraced at two, 3-7 in main track sprints, 0-1 in wet, cost $75,000 as juvenile)
DAM PRODUCE RECORD:  This is dam's first starter
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:   FOWDA (half-sister, multiple Grade 1 winner, 17-6-4-4, $721,634, unraced at two, 2-4 in main track sprints, 0-1 in wet); OTANI (half-brother, stakes-placed sprinter, 66-13-9-5, $86,075, 0-1 at two, 11-47 in main track sprints, 0-9 in wet)
TRAINER INFORMATION:  23-142 (16%, $1.59 ROI) over the past five years with second-out juveniles (2-9, 22%, $1.74 ROI at Saratoga)

4.  MESA VISTA (Sky Mesa - Gata Secreta, by Spinning World)
TRAINER:  D. Wayne Lukas
JOCKEY:  Alan Garcia (second call)
DATE FOALED:   February 2, 2007
STATE FOALED:   Kentucky
AUCTION:   $110,000 weanling (Keeneland, November 2007); $200,000 yearling (Fasig-Tipton Select, August 2008); $500,000 juvenile (Fasig-Tipton, February 2009)
SIRE RACE RECORD:   Grade 1 sprint winner at two (6-3-1-1, $633,076, 3-3 at two, unraced on turf, 1-1 in wet)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:   43-245 (18%) with juvenile runners; 6-67 (9%) with first-turf runners
DAM RACE RECORD:   Unplaced (3-0-0-0, $0, unraced at two, 0-1 on turf, $25,000 yearling)
DAM PRODUCE RECORD:  2 runner, 0 winners, 1 juvenile runner, 0 turf runners, 1 wet runner
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  DUBLEO (half-brother, Grade 2 winner at two, 13-7-1-1, 6-9 at two, $422,134, 6-9 at two, 5-9 on turf, first-turf winner, 1-1 in wet)
TRAINER INFORMATION:  1-4 (25%, $4.75 ROI) over the past five years with second-out juveniles switching to turf, and going sprint to route (1-1, 100%, $19.00 at Saratoga)
NOTABLE WORKOUT INFORMATION:  Worked 2 furlongs in 22.0 prior to the February auction; July 6, July 14, July 23 workouts match barn's juvenile INDIAN COUNCIL (61 Beyer on dirt, unraced on turf).

5.  DEAN'S KITTEN (Kitten's Joy - Summer Theatre, by Ide)
TRAINER:  Michael Maker
JOCKEY:  Julien Leparoux
DATE FOALED:   February 10, 2007
STATE FOALED:   Kentucky
SIRE RACE RECORD:   Multiple Grade 1 winner on turf (14-9-4-0, $2,075,791, 2-4 at two, 9-12 on turf)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:   5-34 (15%) with juvenile runners (first crop); 2-12 (17%) with turf runners
DAM RACE RECORD:   Sprint winner (18-3-2-1, $21,557, 0-7 at two, unraced on turf, 1-5 in wet, cost $25,000 as weanling)
DAM PRODUCE RECORD:  3 runners, 2 winners, 2 juvenile runners, 0 juvenile winners, 2 turf runners, 0 turf winners, 2 wet runners, 1 wet winner
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  ANGIE'S TREASURE (half-sister, stakes-placed, 29-6-5-7, $130,230, 1-3 at two, 0-1 on turf, 2-3 in wet)
TRAINER INFORMATION:  0-1 over the past five years with juveniles on turf in second start following layoff.

6.  CITRUS KID (Lemon Drop Kid - Orange Ice, by Ginistrelli)
TRAINER:  Gary Contessa
JOCKEY:  Rajiv Maragh
DATE FOALED:   May 8, 2007
STATE FOALED:   Kentucky
BLACKTYPE SIBLINGS:   SOLO PRACTITIONER (half-brother, stakes-placed at two, 30-4-4-6, $110,402, 2-6 at two, 0-1 on turf, 0-6 in wet); HARRY'S HALO (half-brother, stakes-winner, 34-5-4-4, $161,444, 1-3 at two, 1-4 on turf, 0-5 in wet)
AUCTION:   $70,000 yearling (Keeneland, September 2008); $50,000 juvenile (OBS Open, March 2009)
SIRE RACE RECORD:   Multiple Grade 1 winner (24-10-3-3, $3,245,370, 2-6 at two, unraced on turf, 1-6 in wet)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:   11-117 (9%) with juvenile debut runners; 28-205 (14%) with first-turf runners; 2-18 (11%, $0.83 ROI) with all debut runners in 2009 (one juvenile debut winner at this meet)
DAM RACE RECORD:   Route winner (3-1-1-0, $10,145, unraced at two, unraced on turf)
DAM PRODUCE RECORD:  10 runners, 9 winners, 10 juvenile runners, 6 juvenile winners, 1 juvenile debut winner, 5 turf runners, 2 turf winners, 10 wet runners, 4 wet winners
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  Female family of Grade 2 route winner SONKISSER
BROODMARE SIRE INFORMATION:  0 winners as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2009
TRAINER INFORMATION:  1-19 (5%) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners on turf (1-5, 20%, $1.34 ROI at Saratoga); 1-31 (3%, $0.62 ROI) with all debut runners in 2009 (older winner with Lasix)
NOTABLE WORKOUT INFORMATION:  Worked 2 furlongs in 21.3 prior to the March auction; June 20 workout went .02 slower than barn's juvenile EIGHTYFIVEINAFIFTY (finished third with 79 Beyer in career debut on dirt at Saratoga on August 1, unraced on turf)

7.  STARLIGHTER (Vindication - Chula, by Broad Brush)
TRAINER:  William Mott
JOCKEY:  Shaun Bridgmohan
DATE FOALED:   January 18, 2007
STATE FOALED:   Florida
SIRE RACE RECORD:   Grade 1 route winner at two (4-4-0-0, $680,950, all races at two, unraced on turf)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:   16-100 (16%) with juvenile debut runners; 4-61 (7%) with first-turf runners; 2-29 (7%, $0.53 ROI) with all debut runners in 2009 (1 juvenile debut winner)
DAM RACE RECORD:   Multiple stakes-placed (20-3-3-2, $69,704, unraced at two, 3-16 on turf, first-turf winner, 0-1 in wet)
DAM PRODUCE RECORD:  1 runner, 1 winner, 1 juvenile runner, 0 juvenile winners, 1 turf runner, 1 turf winner
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  TEE CAT (half-brother, stakes-winner, 37-8-9-2, $198,467, 0-1 at two, 0-4 on turf, 3-6 in wet);  AMON (half-brother, stakes-placed on turf, 44-9-6-7, $167,662, 0-2 at two, 8-31 on turf, 0-2 in wet); SNUG HARBOUR (16-6-0-1, stakes-winner, $164,100, 1-5 at two, 1-3 on turf, first-turf winner, 0-1 in wet):
BROODMARE SIRE INFORMATION:  9-55 (16%, $2.25 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2009 (3 juvenile debut winners)
TRAINER INFORMATION:  9-84 (11%, $0.90 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners on turf (3-26, 12%, $0.80 ROI at Saratoga); 4-46 (9%, $1.57 ROI) with all debut runners in 2009 (all older winners, 3 on turf, 2 with Lasix, 1 with blinkers)
NOTABLE WORKOUT INFORMATION:  May 31 workout matches barn's juvenile COME FROM BEHIND (finished fourth in career debut on dirt on July 9 at Belmont with 62 Beyer, won on dirt at Saratoga; unraced on turf)

8.  PADDY O'PRADO (El Prado - Fun House, by Prized)
TRAINER:  Dale Romans
JOCKEY:  Miguel Mena
DATE FOALED:   February 15, 2007
STATE FOALED:   Kentucky
AUCTION:   $105,000 yearling (Keeneland, September 2008)
SIRE RACE RECORD:   Group 1 winner on turf at two in Ireland (9-4-1-0, $236,987, 4-6 at two, all races on turf, first-turf winner)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:   138-906 (15%) with juvenile runners; 47-466 (10%) with first-turf runners 
DAM RACE RECORD:   Grade 2 winner (29-5-11-6, $432,922, 1-2 at two, 4-23 on turf, first-turf winner)
DAM PRODUCE RECORD:  2 runners, 1 winner, 2 juvenile runners, 1 juvenile winner, 1 turf runner, 0 turf winners, 1 wet runner, 0 wet winners
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  ROUNDABOUT (half-brother, multiple stakes-placed on turf, 14-3-3-2, $133,059, 0-2 at two, all races on turf); EARLY FLYER (half-brother, Grade 2 sprint winner, 15-4-5-2, $371,140, 1-2 at two, unraced on turf, 1-1 in wet); RUSH AROUND (half-brother, stakes-placed, 32-5-7-3, $156,217, 0-1 at two, 0-1 on turf, 0-4 in wet)
TRAINER INFORMATION:  2-14 (14%, $0.68 ROI) over the past five years with second-out juveniles switching to turf, and going sprint to route (0-4 at Saratoga)
NOTABLE WORKOUT INFORMATION:  July 27 workout matches barn's juvenile filly TAPITSFLY (finished first in maiden special weight on dirt at Saratoga on August 3 with 76 Beyer)

9.  PRECIPICE TRAIL (Giant's Causeway - Manoa, by Seeking the Gold)
TRAINER:  Claude McGaughey III
JOCKEY:  Kent Desormeaux
DATE FOALED:   May 13, 2007
STATE FOALED:   Kentucky
BLACKTYPE SIBLINGS:   CARRIAGE TRAIL (full sister, Grade 1 route winner, 16-6-2-3, $746,628, 1-1 at two, 2-8 on turf, first-turf winner); FOREST TRAIL (half-sister, Grade 3-placed, 16-2-5-3, $144,032, 0-4 at two, 1-9 on turf, 1-2 in wet)
SIRE RACE RECORD:   Multiple Group 1 winner on turf in Europe (13-9-4-0, $3,078,989, 3-3 at two, 9-12 on turf, first-turf winner)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:   12-141 (9%) with juvenile debut runners; 27-248 (11%) with first-turf runners; 1-27 (4%, $0.53 ROI) with all debut runners in 2009 (older winner)
NICKING INFORMATION:  COWBOY CAL (multiple Grade 2 route winner, 15-6-4-1, $871,810, 2-3 at two, 4-9 on turf); SWIFT TEMPER (Grade 2 route winner, 27-5-3-3, $1,033,346, 1-6 at two, 0-3 on turf, 1-5 in wet)
DAM RACE RECORD:   Multiple Grade 3-placed (25-4-7-5, $262,952, unraced at two, 0-3 on turf, 1-5 in wet)
DAM PRODUCE RECORD:   5 runners, 2 winners, 2 juvenile runners, 1 juvenile debut winner, 3 turf runners, 2 turf winners, 1 first-turf winner, 2 wet runners, 1 wet winner
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  SEARCH PARTY (full sister, Grade 3-placed, 25-6-2-6, $258,254, 0-2 at two, 0-1 on turf, 1-4 in wet); PROXY STATEMENT (half-sister, Grade 2-placed router at two, 8-3-0-1, $105,700, 2-3 at two, won debut, unraced on turf, 0-1 in wet)
BROODMARE SIRE INFORMATION:  7-46 (15%, $2.29 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2009 (3 juvenile debut winner, 1 juvenile debut winner on turf, 1 older winner on turf)
TRAINER INFORMATION:  3-13 (23%, $3.44 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners on turf (2-7, 29%, $3.74 ROI at Saratoga); 1-11 (9%, $0.80 ROI) with all debut runners in 2009 (older winner without Lasix)

10.  LUCKYLEAD (Harlan's Holiday - Ashwood C C, by Cryptoclearance)
TRAINER:  Kenneth McPeek
JOCKEY:  Robby Albarado
DATE FOALED:   March 29, 2007
STATE FOALED:   Kentucky
AUCTION:   Withdrawn yearling (Fasig-Tipton Summer, July 2008); Out yearling (Keeneland, September 2008); $52,000 yearling (Fasig-Tipton, October 2008)
SIRE RACE RECORD:   Multiple Grade 1 route winenr (22-9-6-1, $3,632,664, 4-6 at two, unraced on turf, 1-4 in wet)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:   50-278 (18%) with juvenile runners; 22-180 (12%) with turf runners
DAM RACE RECORD:   Multiple stakes-winner (52-17-15-6, $581,329, 1-3 at two, 0-1 on turf, 4-16 in wet)
DAM PRODUCE RECORD:  This is first starter
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  ASHWOOD TIE (half-brother, multiple stakes-placed, 20-5-4-6, $77,290, 0-4 at two, unraced on turf, 0-3 in wet)
TRAINER INFORMATION:  24-92 (26%, $2.64 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles on turf (2-6, 33%, $2.15 ROI at Saratoga)

11 (AE).  NOVEL NOTION (Tale of the Cat - Mini Chat, by Deputy Minister)
TRAINER:  Michael Trombetta
JOCKEY:  Cornelio Velasquez
DATE FOALED:   January 24, 2007
STATE FOALED:   Kentucky
BLACKTYPE SIBLINGS:   DIXIE CHATTER (half-brother, Grade 1 winner at two, 13-4-0-4, $464,606, 2-4 at two, 2-6 on turf)
AUCTION:   $140,000 yearling (Keeneland, September 2008); Entered juvenile (Fasig-Tipton, February 2009); Withdrawn juvenile (Keeneland, April 2009); Withdrawn juvenile (Barretts, May 2009)
SIRE RACE RECORD:   Grade 2 sprint winner (9-5-1-2, $360,900, unraced at two, 1-1 on turf, 2-2 in wet)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:   165-892 (18%) with juvenile runners; 127-1073 (12%) with turf runners
NICKING INFORMATION:  PRINCE ROONEY (stakes-winning sprinter at two, 2-2-0-0,  $68,225, all races at two, unraced on turf)
DAM RACE RECORD:   Unraced
DAM PRODUCE RECORD:  2 runners, 1 winner, 2 juvenile runners, 1 juvenile winner, 2 turf runners, 1 turf winner
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  CAT CHAT (half-sister, Grade 2 sprint winner, 7-3-1-1, $154,040, 1-1 at two, unraced on turf)
TRAINER INFORMATION:  2-10 (20%, $1.06 ROI) over the past five years with second-out juveniles on turf

12 (AE).  GRAND PIANO MAN (Grand Slam - Musical Miss, by Seattle Song)
TRAINER:  George Weaver
JOCKEY:  Javier Castellano
DATE FOALED:   May 23, 2007
STATE FOALED:   Kentucky
BLACKTYPE SIBLINGS:   DRIVE THRU BLUES (stakes-placed at two, 34-2-4-9, $107,709, 0-9 at two, 1-7 on turf, 0-4 in wet); GILT TRIP (half-sister, stakes-winning router, 12-2-3-1, $105,900, 0-3 at two, unraced on turf, 0-1 in wet); TRION GEORGIA (half-brother, stakes-winner, 41-11-6-8, $378,660, 1-4 at two, 0-1 on turf, 2-6 in wet)
AUCTION:   $25,000 weanling (Keeneland, November 2007); $70,000 yearling (Keeneland, September 2008); Withdrawn juvenile (Fasig-Tipton, February 2009); Out juvenile (OBS Open, March 2009); $80,000 juvenile (Keeneland, April 2009)
SIRE RACE RECORD:   Multiple Grade 1 winner at two (15-4-5-2, $971,292, 3-5 at two, won debut, 0-1 on turf, 1-3 in wet)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:   39-302 (13%) with juvenile debut runners; 37-332 (11%) with first-turf runners; 2-41 (5%, $0.46 ROI) with all debut runners in 2009 (both older winners)
DAM RACE RECORD:   Winner (32-4-3-0, $43,039, 0-2 at two, 0-3 on turf, 0-6 in wet, cost $15,000 as yearling)
DAM PRODUCE RECORD:  8 runners, 6 winners, 5 juvenile runners, 1 juvenile winner, 4 turf runners, 3 turf winners, 6 wet runners, 2 wet winners
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  PRISSY ONE (half-sister, 40-3-5-13, $153,243, 1-5 at two, won debut, 2-13 on turf, first-turf winner, 0-5 in wet)
BROODMARE SIRE INFORMATION:  0 debut winners as a broodmare sire in 2009
TRAINER INFORMATION:  1-32 (3%, $0.32 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners on turf (0-16 at Saratoga); 3-23 (13%, $0.90 ROI) with all debut runners in 2009 (1 juvenile debut winner, 2 with Lasix)
NOTABLE WORKOUT INFORMATION:  Worked 1 furlong in 10.2 prior to the April auction.

13 (MTO).  SAINT ELIGIUS (Saint Liam - Great Connection, by Dayjur)
TRAINER:  Kiaran McLaughlin
JOCKEY:  Alan Garcia (first call)
DATE FOALED:   February 18, 2007
STATE FOALED:   Kentucky
BLACKTYPE SIBLINGS:  GUANA (half-sister, stakes-winner on turf, 17-4-2-2, $137,382, 1-3 at two, all races on turf); GREAT NEWS (half-sister, stakes-winner on turf in France, 11-4-1-2, $84,531, 3-4 at two, all races on turf)
SIRE RACE RECORD:   Multiple Grade 1 route winner, 20-9-6-1, $4,456,995, unraced at two, 0-1 in main track sprints, 0-1 in wet)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:   2-24 (8%) with juvenile runners (first crop)
DAM RACE RECORD:   Sprint winner (3-1-0-1, $18,770, all races sprinting on the main track at two, cost $45,000 as yearling)
DAM PRODUCE RECORD:  7 runners, 4 winners, 6 juvenile runners, 2 juvenile winners, 6 turf runners, 3 turf winners
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  THRILLA IN MANILA (half-brother, Grade 3-placed at two, 105-12-21-12, $191,099, 1-8 at two, 11-93 in main track sprints, 3-16 in wet); HOUSTON CONNECTION (Grade 3-placed at two, 40-9-7-5, $162,469, 2-8 at two, 1-9 in main track sprints, 0-6 in wet); WINNING CONNECTION (half-brother, multiple stakes-winner, 71-21-9-13,  $519,177, 0-4 at two, 1-3 in main track sprints, 1-8 in wet); UNBRIDLED LASSIE (half-sister, Grade 1-placed router, 7-3-1-3, $170,220, unraced at two, 1-1 in main track sprints); BANKRUPTCY COURT (half-brother, Grade 3-placed, 10-4-3-2, $162,230, unraced at two, 1-1 in main track sprints, 0-1 in wet)
TRAINER INFORMATION:  23-101 (23%, $2.68 ROI) over the past five years with second-out juveniles (1-10, $1.68 ROI at Saratoga)

Analysis:  PADDY O'PRADO ran into a very promising Steve Asmussen-trained two-year-old named Thiskyhasnolimit in his career debut at Churchill Downs, and was only beaten 4 1/2 lengths for second in that sloppy heat.  The July 27 bullet grass work matches up with Tapitsfly, a juvenile filly that won her maiden for Dale Romans in an off-the-turf affair on Monday. 
DEAN'S KITTEN should stetch out effectively as his sire, Kitten's Joy, was known for his routing prowess on the turf.  He should show good tactical speed in his second start of the form cycle for high-percentage connections. 
CALIPARI is a half-brother to Grade 1 winner Circle of Life, but going two turns is a daunting task for a debut runner, even one trained by Todd Pletcher. 
LUCKYLEAD has valuable turf route experience as he was nipped on the line at Ellis Park on July 11.  He really seemed to improve with the switch to grass as well as with the addition of Lasix to the arsenal, but these are likely tougher than what he faced in Kentucky.
NOVEL NOTION raced evenly in his career debut on grass, but will break from a tough outside post position if he gets in from the also-eligible list.  RYVIT is by a Wood Memorial winner out of a full sister to Breeders' Cup Classic hero Concern so distance shouldn't be an issue.  VAMOS A VER boasts the same sire-broodmare 'sire' nick as Horse of the Year Curlin, but the workouts fail to excite.  MILL POND must improve off dull debut run at Belmont.  PRECIPICE TRAIL and STARLIGHTER may both need a race.  GRAND PIANO MAN will draw a wide berth if he gets in.  MESA VISTA may show stretchout speed for trainer that sent out second-time starter/first-time turfer Ninth Client to an upset score last summer at the Spa.  CITRUS KID shows some interesting workouts.  SAINT ELIGIUS and CUTTER can't be counted out if this race is washed to the main track.  IN JUST WE TRUST drew into Monday's third race, and is likely to scratch.

Selections:  1.  Paddy O'Prado  2.  Dean's Kitten  3.  Calipari

The Play:  Paddy O'Prado to Win and Place at 5-1 odds or greater