08/26/2007 11:00PM

Spa Babies for 8/27

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Welcome to Spa Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile maiden contest at the meet, and hopefully will end up with a tidy profit.

Sunday’s results:
Race 3: War Pass finished first
Race 5: Blowing Kisses finished third

Race 4:
6 Furlongs
Jena Jena Stakes (New York Breds)
2-year-old fillies

Purse $80,000

Analysis:
EXPECT THE END chased a promising Todd Pletcher-trained filly named New York City Girl when tackling winners for the first time in the Colleen Stakes at Monmouth. She seems to have some tactical speed, and may sit a nice trip stalking the early pace.
MYAKKA was a very impressive maiden winner for Linda Rice, and may have the best early speed in the field. She has that race over the track in her favor, and should be prominent when they turn for home. BET THE DIVA was a facile winner at Belmont, and shows a solid work tab in preparation for her stakes debut. She will likely face more pace pressure in this spot, and may be forced to rate, and she didn’t beat much on July 15 (of the four horses from that race to start again, the best next-out Beyer was a 57).
Conversely, SPEAK PROUDLY defeated a pair of next-out winners in her maiden tally. She’ll have to hustle from her inside post position, and is giving up valuable experience to the top three selections.

Selections:
1. Expect the End
2. Myakka
3. Bet the Diva

The play: No play

Race 5
5 1/2 Furlongs
Maiden Special Weight (New York Breds)
2-year-old fillies
Purse $56,000

1. Supporter (Hook and Ladder – Loyal American, by Quiet American)
Trainer: Ramon Hernandez
- Foaled April 11
- first-crop sire was a Grade 2 sprint winner (19-6-2-3, $388,120, 1-1 at two, 6-18 in dirt sprints)
- sire is 6-16 (38%, $5.03 ROI) with juvenile debut runners in 2007
- dam was a route winner (31-3-5-3, $77,500, 0-4 at two, 0-7 in dirt sprints, 2-15 in mud/slop)
- this is dam’s first runner
- second dam is stakes-placed sprinter Obligated Sue (37-4-8-10, $158,810, unraced at two, 4-34 in dirt sprints, 0-3 in mud/slop)
- Quiet American is 2-37 (5%, $0.37 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2007
- trainer is 6-38 (16%, $3.03 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 3-13 (23%, $5.09 ROI) with debuting Spa Babies
- trainer is 1-9 (11%, $2.29 ROI) with debut runners in 2007
- August 6 workout went .01 slower than barn’s juvenile filly Slipstone (won career debut on August 10 with 45 Beyer)
- August 15 workout went .02 faster than barn’s juvenile filly Madam Commander (finished second in August 22 maiden special weight with 47 Beyer)

1a. Farri H. (Hook and Ladder - Schifarri, by Gulch)
Trainer: John Kimmel
- Foaled May 21
- sire was a Grade 2 sprint winner (19-6-2-3, $388,120, 1-1 at two, 6-18 in dirt sprints)
- sire is 6-22 (27%) with juvenile runners
- dam was unraced
- dam has eight runners, four winners, three juvenile runners, no juvenile winners
- second dam was multiple Grade 3-placed Lambros (18-5-2-4, $144,790, unraced at two, 3-15 in dirt sprints, 1-1 in mud/slop)
- female family of stakes-winner Jedina (dam of Grade 1 winner Clabber Girl, Grade 1 route winner Fappiano, Grade 3 winner Portroe, and Group 1 turf winner Torrential
- trainer is 9-65 (14%, $1.15 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles
- trainer is 2-11 (18%, $2.26 ROI) with second-time juveniles

2. Jet Setting (Forestry – Gone Musical, by Gone West)
Trainer: Steven Asmussen
- Foaled March 27
- $425,000 yearling (Fasig-Tipton Select August 2006)
- withdrawn juvenile (Fasig-Tipton February 2007)
- sire was a Grade 1 sprint winner (11-7-1-2, $591,225, unraced at two, 4-7 in dirt sprints, 0-1 in mud/slop)
- sire is 18-113 (16%) with juvenile debut runners
- sire is 4-38 (11%, $1.09 ROI) with debut runners in 2007
- dam was a sprint winner at two (6-2-0-0, $52,805, 2-2 at two, 2-5 in dirt sprints, 0-2 in mud/slop)
- this is dam’s first runner
- dam a half-sister to stakes-placed Native Rhythm (35-4-6-3, $161,803, 1-4 at two, 2-11 in dirt sprints)
- Gone West is 8-52 (15%, $1.79 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2007
- trainer is 125-594 (21%, $2.07 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 7-31 (23%, $1.37 ROI) with debuting Spa Babies
- trainer is 27-119 (23%, $1.98 ROI) with debut runners in 2007
- July 17 workout matches barn’s juvenile Prince Hope (finished fourth in career debut on turf at Ellis Park on August 19 with 52 Beyer), and juvenile filly Star of Merit (finished sixth in career debut on turf at Ellis Park on July 29 with 41 Beyer)
- July 24 workout matches barn’s juvenile E Bate (finished sixth in career debut at Ellis Park on August 18 with 51 Beyer)
- July 30 workout matches barn’s juvenile Crap Shoot (finished fifth in career debut in maiden special weight on Arlington’s polytrack with on August 25)

3. My Anna Rose (City Zip – Addie’s Pride, by Circulating)
Trainer: Gary Sciacca
- Foaled May 8
- $29,000 RNA weanling (Keeneland November 2005)
- $14,000 RNA yearling (Fasig-Tipton Preferred August 2006)
- $33,000 juvenile (Fasig-Tipton May 2007)
- sire was a Grade 1 sprint winner at two (23-9-5-4, $818,225, 5-11 at two, 9-16 in dirt sprints, 1-1 in mud/slop)
- sire is 11-73 (15%) with juvenile debut runners
- sire is 4-34 (12%, $0.80 ROI) with debut runners in 2007
- dam was stakes-placed (14-3-5-2, $28,753, 0-1 at two, 3-12 in dirt sprints, 0-1 in mud/slop)
- dam has two runners, one winner, two juvenile runners, no juvenile winners
- dam a half-sister to juvenile stakes-winner Sum Flare (35-5-1-4, $29,530, 1-6 at two, 4-28 in dirt sprints, 0-3 in mud/slop), sprint stakes-winner Ashlea’s Debut (25-2-5-4, $41,811, 1-5 at two, 2-13 in dirt sprints, 0-1 in mud/slop), juvenile stakes-placed sprinter Regal Dancer (21-1-5-5, $19,994, 0-6 at two, all races in dirt sprints, 0-1 in mud/slop)
- Circulating is 1-2 (50%, $3.70 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2007
- trainer is 1-30 (3%, $1.55 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 0-5 with debuting Spa Babies
- worked one furlong in 10.60 prior to the May sale

4. Linden Ave (Dream Run - Tricky Move, by Tricky Creek)
Trainer: Timothy Hills
- Foaled February 15
- $50,000 short yearling (OBS January 2006)
- withdrawn juvenile (Fasig-Tipton May 2007)
- half-sister to sprint stakes-winner Multiplication (4-2-1-0, $102,740, unraced at two, 2-3 in dirt sprints)
- first-crop sire was a Grade 2 sprint winner (25-5-6-4, $456,734, 1-2 at two, 5-20 in dirt sprints, 0-3 in mud/slop)
- sire is 1-14 (7%) with juvenile runners
- dam was a multiple stakes-winner (27-4-3-5, $112,956, 1-10 at two, 2-19 in dirt sprints, 1-9 in mud/slop, cost $3,700 as a yearling)
- dam has three runners, two winners, two juvenile runners, no juvenile winners
- trainer is 13-88 (15%, $1.02 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles
- trainer is 0-5 with second-time Spa Babies

5. Meriwether Jessica (Freud – Chunter’s Joy, by Northern Jove)
Trainer: Michael McDonald
- Foaled April 22
- $25,000 yearling (Fasig-Tipton Preferred August 2006)
- $95,000 juvenile (OBS February 2007)
- withdrawn juvenile (OBS June 2007)
- sire was Group 2-placed on turf in Ireland (12-1-2-1, $44,016, 0-3 at two, unraced in dirt sprints)
- sire is 9-60 (15%) with juvenile debut runners
- sire is 3-25 (12%, $1.32 ROI) with debut runners in 2007
- dam was multiple stakes-placed (22-5-3-3, $74,365, unraced at two, 5-17 in dirt sprints, 1-7 in mud/slop)
- dam has four runners, four winners, two juvenile runners, no juvenile winners
- second dam a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed Missouri Force (24-4-3-5, $75,798, 3-9 at two, won debut, 4-22 in dirt sprints, 0-1 in mud/slop), and stakes-placed router Dimanno (24-4-3-5, $88,167, 0-3 at two, 0-14 in dirt sprints, 1-3 in mud/slop)
- Northern Jove is 1-16 (6%, $2.49 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2007
- trainer is 9-70 (13%, $1.70 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 0-2 with debuting Spa Babies
- trainer is 1-10 (10%, $1.14 ROI) with debut runners in 2007
- worked a furlong in 10.60, and another furlong in 10.40 prior to the February sale
- August 1 workout matches barn’s juvenile filly Unicorn Girl (finished fourth in career debut in 75K maiden claimer on August 3 with 46 Beyer)

6. Vain Vixen (Good and Tough - Uppity, by Colony Light)
Trainer: Thomas Bush
- Foaled May 5
- $6,000 yearling (Fasig-Tipton Preferred August 2006)
- out juvenile (Keeneland April 2007)
- withdrawn juvenile (OBS April 2007)
- half-sister to stakes-winner Two Sixty Four (19-7-3-3, $197,025, unraced at two, 1-3 in dirt sprints, 0-2 in mud/slop), and stakes-placed sprinter Market Psychology (5-2-1-1, $78,981, 1-2 at two, all races in dirt sprints, 1-1 in mud/slop)
- sire was a Grade 2 sprint winner (23-9-5-2, $809,341, unraced at two, 9-21 in dirt sprints, 1-1 in mud/slop)
- sire is 43-256 (17%) with juvenile runners
- dam was unraced
- dam has five runners, three winners, two juvenile runners, one juvenile winner
- dam a half-sister to multiple Grade 2 winner Top Secret (31-11-7-1, $997,647, 3-6 at two, 5-12 in dirt sprints, 1-5 in mud/slop), multiple stakes-winning sprinter Tate (21-4-5-7, $199,787, 0-1 at two, all races in dirt sprints, 0-3 in mud/slop), sprint stakes-winner West’s Secret (17-5-2-3, $176,381, unraced at two, 5-15 in dirt sprints, 0-1 in mud/slop), and stakes-placed Secret Forest (12-3-4-2, $134,905, unraced at two, 1-5 in dirt sprints)
- trainer is 0-4 over the past five years with second-time juveniles adding blinkers
- trainer is 0-1 with that angle with Spa Babies

7. Golden Spirits (Hennessy – My Lady Avie, by With Approval)
Trainer: David Donk

- Foaled February 9
- sire was a Grade 1 sprint winner at two (9-4-3-0, $580,400, all races at two, 4-6 at two, 0-1 in mud/slop)
- sire is 25-207 (12%) with juvenile debut runners
- sire is 3-39 (8%, $0.91 ROI) with debut runners in 2007
- dam was a route stakes-winner at two (17-2-1-1, $120,240, 2-4 at two, 0-1 in dirt sprints, 1-4 in mud/slop (cost $21,000 as a yearling, and $100,000 as a juvenile)
- this is dam’s first runner
- dam a half-sister to multiple sprint stakes-winner Doc Calls Her Kate (17-7-0-4, $204,793, 1-1 at two, 7-16 in dirt sprints, 0-2 in mud/slop), multiple stakes-placed S’more Smoke (29-6-3-6, $137,090, 0-2 at two, 2-13 in dirt sprints, 0-2 in mud/slop)
- With Approval is 2-37 (5%, $0.36 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2007
- trainer is 4-84 (5%, $1.85 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 1-14 (7%, $5.11 ROI) with debuting Spa Babies
- trainer is 1-18 (6%, $1.06 ROI) with debut runners in 2007
- July 31 workout went .03 faster than barn’s four-year-old Mount Weather (finished fourth in John D. Marsh Stakes on turf at Colonial on August 5 with 77 Beyer; 79 dirt Beyer)

8. Nicole Cat (Tomorrows Cat – I Sweep Again, by End Sweep)
Trainer: Keith O’Brien
- Foaled January 26
- sire was a Grade 2 route winner (15-4-4-2, $516,090, 1-4 at two, 1-6 in dirt sprints, 0-1 in mud/slop)
- sire is 13-116 (11%) with juvenile debut runners
- dam was placed on turf (4-0-1-1, $13,020, 0-1 at two, 0-1 in dirt sprints, cost $30,000 as a yearling)
- dam has one runner, no winners, one juvenile runner
- dam a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed juvenile Alert the Pilgrim (39-6-4-5, $65,647, 1-9 at two, 1-13 in dirt sprints, 0-2 in mud/slop)
- End Sweep is 1-25 (4%, $0.62 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2007
- trainer is 0-15 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 0-3 with debuting Spa Babies
- July 7 workout went .02 faster than barn’s three-year-old filly Lady Alice (finished fifth in turf maiden special weight on July 27 with 61 Beyer)
- July 14 workout went .02 slower than barn’s four-year-old filly Flying Sappho (finished 12th in ‘n1x’ turf allowance on July 26 with 64 Beyer; 49 dirt Beyer)
- July 21 workout matches Flying Sappho
- August 11 workout matches barn’s three-year-old Wheelaboy (72 dirt Beyer)

9. Like a Rose (Hook and Ladder – Midnight Tank, by Tank’s Prospect)
Trainer: Gary Contessa
- Foaled April 26
- $60,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2006)
- $105,000 juvenile (OBS March 2007)
- half-sister to stakes-placed sprinter Tank’s Expectation (65-9-10-5, $322,812, 2-9 at two, 9-59 in dirt sprints, 2-11 in mud/slop), and multiple stakes-placed Battle Tank (43-6-6-5, $199,988, 2-4 at two, won debut, 1-22 in dirt sprints, 0-4 in mud/slop)
- sire was a Grade 2 sprint winner (19-6-2-3, $388,120, 1-1 at two, 6-18 in dirt sprints)
- sire is 6-16 (38%, $5.03 ROI) with juvenile debut runners in 2007
- dam was a winner (22-2-4-2, $40,410, 0-4 at two, 1-11 in dirt sprints, 0-2 in mud/slop, cost $19,000 as a yearling)
- dam has six runners, five winners, four juvenile runners, three juvenile winners, one juvenile debut winner
- dam a half-sister to stakes-winner Corbett (28-4-2-7, $35,378), stakes-winner Grey Gauntlet (47-2-6-6, $101,674, unraced at two, 0-8 in dirt sprints, 0-3 in mud/slop), stakes-winner Chores at Dawn (49-7-6-6, $178,403, 0-3 at two, 4-17 in dirt sprints, 1-3 in mud/slop), and stakes-placed The Mahz (57-4-2-8, $23,695, 1-1 at two, 3-45 in dirt sprints, 0-2 in mud/slop)
- trainer is 15-161 (9%, $1.05 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 3-44 (7%, $1.05 ROI) with debuting Spa Babies
- trainer is 6-45 (13%, $1.51 ROI) with debut runners in 2007
- worked a quarter-mile in 22.60, and another quarter-mile in 21.80 prior to the March sale
- July 15 workout went .01 faster than ex-barnmate - five-year-old P J Indy (finished sixth in 35K turf claimer on July 21 with 74 Beyer; 83 dirt Beyer)
- July 27 workout went .04 slower than barn’s juvenile filly Libor Rate (finished second in career debut on turf on August 24 with 78 Beyer)

10. Meredith Bay (Judge T C – Camden Bay, by Two Punch)
Trainer: Patrick Kelly
- Foaled February 5
- sire was a Grade 2 winner (28-11-6-0, $826,826, 3-6 at two, 4-9 in dirt sprints, 0-2 in mud/slop)
- sire is 12-185 (6%) with juvenile debut runners
- sire is 2-36 (6%, $0.95 ROI) with debut runners in 2007
- dam was placed sprinting (10-0-0-1, $10,960, 0-2 at two, 0-8 in dirt sprints, 0-2 in mud/slop, cost $110,000 as a juvenile)
- this is dam’s first runner
- dam a full sister to multiple stakes-winner Flying Punch (41-9-6-5, $268,994, 1-5 at two, 7-28 in dirt sprints, 0-5 in mud/slop)
- Two Punch is 4-47 (9%, $0.83 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2007
- trainer is 3-42 (7%, $1.95 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 0-7 with debuting Spa Babies
- August 5 workout went .03 slower than barn’s nine-year-old Evening Attire (finished third in 100K optional claimer on August 10 with 84 Beyer)

11. Cape Cod Escape (American Chance – Quick Escape, by Geiger Counter)
Trainer: Scott Schwartz
- Foaled January 22
- $14,000 RNA yearling (Keeneland September 2006)
- $25,000 juvenile (OBS April 2007)
- sire was a multiple Grade 2 winner (37-10-8-4, $847,977, 3-5 at two, 8-19 in dirt sprints, 1-4 in mud/slop)
- sire is 16-164 (10%) with juvenile debut runners
- dam was a winner (15-3-0-3, $26,200, 0-5 at two, 2-12 in dirt sprints, 1-3 in mud/slop)
- this is dam’s first runner
- dam a half-sister to multiple Grade 3 turf winner Sweetest Thing (13-6-4-1, $857,094, unraced at two, all races on turf), and stakes-placed sprinter Bold Thing (34-4-6-3, $221,937, 0-5 at two, 1-18 in dirt sprints)
- Geiger Counter is 1-24 (4%, $0.24 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2007
- trainer is 1-36 (3%, $0.20 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 1-13 (8%, $0.55 ROI) with debuting Spa Babies
- worked one furlong in 10.80 prior to the April sale
- June 19, June 27, July 2, July 14 workouts match juvenile filly Hot Gold (finished sixth in career debut in 75K maiden claimer on August 3 with 33 Beyer)
- July 8 workout went .01 slower than Hot Gold

12. City of Lights (City Zip – Perfect Mount, by Claramount)
Trainer: Anthony Dutrow
- Foaled April 28
- $32,000 RNA juvenile (OBS April 2007)
- sire was a Grade 1 sprint winner at two (23-9-5-4, $818,225, 5-11 at two, 9-16 in dirt sprints, 1-1 in mud/slop
- sire is 11-73 (15%) with juvenile debut runners
- sire is 4-34 (12%, $0.80 ROI) with debut runners in 2007
- dam was unraced
- this is dam’s first runner
- Claramount is 1-4 (25%, $2.25 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2007
- trainer is 21-125 (17%, $1.17 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 0-3 with debuting Spa Babies
- trainer is 3-33 (9%, $1.02 ROI) with debut runners in 2007
- worked one furlong in 10.80 prior to the April sale
- July 3 workout matches barn’s juvenile filly Sherine (finished third in career debut at Belmont on July 11 with 47 Beyer)

Analysis:
MEREDITH BAY shows an interesting workout on August 5, and the daughter to Judge T C should offer good value in her debut. Trainer Pat Kelly has made some noise at this meet, and the dam’s full sister was a capable sprinter.
LIKE A ROSE sold for $105,000 earlier this year, and the young sire is having a fantastic first crop in 2007. She shows some good workouts, and trainer Gary Contessa usually has them ready to run first-out. GOLDEN SPIRITS attracts John Velazquez for her debut, and while trainer David Donk has a poor win rate with firsters, this filly shows some nice workouts.
LINDEN AVE did not have an easy trip in career debut, yet still finished ahead of next-out winner Beam of Love. She has the experience edge over many of her rivals, and can’t be dismissed. NICOLE CAT shows decent workouts, but may need a race before we see her best stuff. JET SETTING goes out for top debut barn, and sold for a whopping $425,000 last year, but is saddled with the tough inside post, and the works fail to impress. CITY OF LIGHTS must avoid wide trip going into the turn, but the July 3 workout indicates she has some speed, and trainer Tony Dutrow does well out of the box.

Selections:
1. Meredith Bay
2. Like a Rose
3. Golden Spirits

The play: Meredith Bay to win and place at 8-1 odds or more

Meet record based on starts, wins, top pick (after scratches) in the money, and profit/loss of that day's play ($2 wager): 51-13-25 (+$26.40)