08/20/2009 11:00PM

Spa Babies for 8/22

Email

Welcome to Spa Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile contest at the meet.
Hopefully, we'll end up with a tidy profit.

Friday's results:
Race 3 - Red Rally finished first
Race 6 - Awesome Maria finished first

***Due to time constraints, the detailed statistical analysis is unavailable.  It will return for Sunday's card***

Saturday, August 22, 2009

Race 2
5 1/2 Furlongs
Maiden Special Weight (NY-Breds)
2-year-olds
Purse $48,400

Analysis:
CITY TROOPER broke like a shot in his career debut at Belmont, but was caught in a race-long speed duel with eventual winner, and subsequent Monmouth stakes-placed runner, Dahlgren Chapel.  He was easily second-best in that race, and he then ran into a sharp Bill Mott-trained second-time starter on Opening Day at the Spa.  He's quick enough to grab the lead in this spot, but also versatile enough to sit off WISE STOP if need be. 
Wise Stop set slow fractions here 19 days ago, and opened up a big lead turning for home, but he still couldn't stave off Ibboyee's late rally.  The half-brother to stakes-placed router Smart Coupons has the experience edge over his rivals, and should appreciate the slight cutback in distance. 
CATS KITTY, a half-brother to juvenile stakes-winner, Spanky Fischbein, makes his career debut for excellent barn, and the most recent workout matches up with Tom Bush's three-year-old Summer Share, a runner-up in an entry-level allowance race on dirt at Belmont on June 13 with a 74 Beyer Speed Figure. 
SHRIMP DANCER may eventually be a bit more effective at route distances as he's a son of the longwinded Kitten's Joy out of a dam that won a couple of routes as a two-year-old.  That last work looks sharp as it matches up with David Donk's three-year-old filly Sapphire Sky, the winner of yesterday's Biogio's Rose Stakes at the Spa. 
FENWAY FAITHFUL has proved popular at public auction.  The son of Grand Slam went for $120,000 as a weanling, $123,000 the following year, and followed it up with a $125,000 price tag in February after working a furlong in 10.2.  The unplaced dam cost $1,000,000 as a yearling as she's a direct descendant of blue hen broodmare Courtly Dee.  NEVER GIVE UP makes first start for new owner-trainer combination after finishing behind City Trooper.  He was twice an auction RNA ($7,000 yearling, $24,000 yearling), but his second dam is a half-sister to Horse of the Year Holy Bull. TWO SONS worked a quarter-mile in 22.1 before being bought back for $40,000 at the OBS March sale.  Trainer Gary Contessa doesn't have a great record with juvenile debut runners over the years, but he has sent out some live firsters to minor awards at this meet.  Two of BISHOP OF NOLA's works match up with Bobbi O., a juvenile debut winner for Ken McPeek earlier in the meet.  His second dam won the Grade 3 Tempted as a two-year-old filly.  CAPRIDGE is a May foal out of a multiple stakes-winner on grass.  He's a half to a pair of blacktype earners, but may want more ground, and ultimately turf, as the second dam was the millionaire lawn mower Capades.

Selections:
1.  City Trooper  2.  Wise Stop  3.  Cats Kitty

The Play:
City Trooper to Win at 9-5 odds or greater

***

Race 4
5 1/2 Furlongs
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-old fillies
Purse $55,000

Analysis:
CAT DAY is a half-sister to Storm Play, a colt that earned a 110 Beyer Speed Figure in winning the Best of Luck Stakes going nine furlongs at Aqueduct over muddy going in 2008. Tony Dutrow and Ramon Dominguez have teamed up for a pair of debut winners in New York this season, and Cat Day shows some interesting workouts.  The August 5 move matches up with Dutrow's veteran sprinter Lord Snowdon, a multiple stakes-winner that won for a $40,000 tag in his most recent start at Belmont.  The most recent drill matches up with Three in the Bag, a stakes-placed older horse that has hit the board in his last seven races. 
BASHOOSHA's dam won the Grade 3 Oaklawn Breeders' Cup going long with a 100 Beyer Speed Figure, and she finished only a length behind the all-world mare Azeri when third in the 2002 La Canada Stakes at Santa Anita.  A $575,000 yearling by Distorted Humor, Bashoosha wouldn't be a surprise for the always-dangerous Kiaran McLaughlin, but she does draw the sometimes-intimidating inside post position. 
AMAZING ANNA, a $65,000 yearling purchase, resold for $140,000 in March after scorching a quarter-mile in 20.3 seconds.  The unplaced dam is a half-sister to Notably Frosty, a multiple stakes-winner of over 400K.  She doesn't show a published work in the last 17 days, but this barn is excellent with debut performers. 
SPEIGHTFUL LADY, a $170,000 yearling, went for $350,000 after working the co-fastest furlong (10.1) at the Fasig-Tipton February auction.  The dam, a five-time sprint winner, took the Grade 3 Chaposa Springs Handicap with a 97 Beyer. 
SARATOGA FLING didn't have the easiest trip in her career debut, and the $210,000 yearling (originally a $120,000 weanling) can certainly improve off that race.  Her dam won the Dearly Precious Stakes sprinting with an 84 Beyer.  WHOOPTY WHOOPTY is bred both sides for speed, and the dam won the Grade 3 Las Flores Handicap with a 94 Beyer (she won first-out as a newly-turned three-year-old going six furlongs with a career-best 102 Beyer).  RUMPUS ROOM raced wide in the slop for her debut effort, and the half to Desert Phantom (a juvenile stakes-winner on grass in England) draws the far outside stall once again.  CANE CANDY may want more ground.  Both of her dam's career victories came in route races, and Cane Candy's full brother, the stakes-placed Santana Six, is 2-6 in his career with both wins going long.  SQUID INK has a precocious and speedy pedigree, and the barn wins plenty of these races.  The dam's lone win came in the Three Chimneys Juvenile, and her only other foal to race was a juvenile debut winner before becoming multiple stakes-placed (Love Buzz is only 1-21 lifetime, however).  MARK TO MARKET is out of a dam that won two stakes races in Ohio as a juvenile filly.  This is a very shrewd barn, and Mark to Market was bought back for $90,000 in March after working a furlong in 10 seconds flat.

Selections:
1.  Cat Day  2.  Bashoosha  3.  Speightful Lady

The Play:
Cat Day to Win and Place at 9-2 odds or greater

***

Race 7
1 1/16 Miles (Turf)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-olds
Purse $51,000

Analysis:
BECKY'S KITTEN should relish today's additional distance as well as the surface switch to the lawn.  He's by Kitten's Joy, a multiple Grade 1 turf winner that has done pretty well thus far with his first crop (a couple of first-turf successes already).  The dam raced exclusively on grass, winning one of eight races, and her sire is Cozzene, a turf champion.  The second dam is by the top grass runner and sire Theatrical, and the third dam, Grade 3 winner Vivano, gives class to the bloodlines.  Becky's Kitten earned a fast 82 Moss Pace Figure in an off-the-turf race at Belmont, and may attempt to lead these from flagfall to finish under Alan Garcia. 
Trainer Eddie Kenneally has already sent out six debut winners in 2009, including one at this meet with Julien Leparoux aboard.  The combination will try with ASPHALT in this spot.  The dam has already thrown first-turf (and stakes-placed) winner Impressive Star, and stakes-winning router Rikman, and she herself is kin to graded winners Incinerate and Fan the Flame.  Note that Kenneally doesn't usually do his best work with debut runners in route races.  According to Formulator Web trainer statistics, he is 0-25 over the past five years with firsters in route races. 
TEE EM ARR, a $47,000 RNA as a short yearling in January 2008, sold for $50,000 in August of that year before going for $60,000 in March of 2009.  He worked a quick two furlongs in 21 seconds flat prior to the most recent auction, and boasts a strong turf pedigree.  His sire finished first in both the Tattersalls Gold Cup and Arlington Million.  Trainer Leroy Jolley has sent out a winner at the boutique meet. 
STATELY VICTOR will attempt to become the first winner for the popular sire Ghostzapper.  He draws a cozy inside post, and his dam was a terror on the grass, winning the Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup on Keeneland's sod.  A yearling buyback at $110,000, Stately Victor was easily the sales-topper at the Adena Springs Two-Year-Olds in Training Sale in March. 
VAMOS A VER adds blinkers after a wide journey on grass, but draws a tough outside post once again for Graham Motion.  He'll probably move forward off his debut if he draws into the body of the race.  MINT MAKER's dam was a Grade 2 winner going short on the main track so it's interesting that he makes his debut in a turf route.  He shows some quick works, but the $90,000 yearling RNA ($100,000 juvenile RNA after working a quarter-mile in 21.0) may need one.  EL COMMODORE makes the two sprints to a route move for Bill Mott, and she's a half-sister to Fancy Fusaichi, a stakes-winner going long.  El Commodore seems to have some speed, and will probably be forwardly-placed under Kent Desormeaux.  OUTLAW MAN sold for $50,000 as a weanling, and $150,000 as a yearling, and this barn has been going well of late.  This dam is a half-sister to the good turf performers Misty Sixes and Broadway View.  ULTERIOR MOTIVE and MODERN COWBOY both debut for Todd Pletcher with each showing a long string of workouts.  The latter is out of Western Woman, a stakes-winner going short on dirt in Southern California, and is a half to Hype, a Grade 3-placed turf runner.  Ulterior Motive is the first foal out of an unraced half-sister to Alabama and Test winner Society Selection.  GIBSON LAND has a solid pedigree, and can improve adding blinkers for his first turf route.  REMITTANCE, SAINT ELIGIUS, WINSLOW HOMER, ON VACATION, and I'VE GOT THE FEVER are scheduled to compete only if the race is washed off the grass.

Selections:
1.  Becky's Kitten  2.  Asphalt  3.  Tee Em Arr

The Play:
Becky's Kitten to Win at 5-2 odds or greater (turf only)

***

Race 8
6 1/2 Furlongs
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-olds
Purse $55,000

Analysis
DISCREETLY MINE, a half-brother to Cigar Mile winner Discreet Cat, multiple stakes-winner Pretty Wild, and Grade 3-placed miler Discreet Treasure, is out of Alabama winner Pretty Discreet, and has shown high speed in his two starts to date.  In his career debut at Belmont, he fended off two pace challengers before falling short to late-rallier Bulls and Bears.  Last time out, he simply may have been too keyed up with blinkers (blitzed the first five-eighths in 56 3/5).  Stanley Hough won the opening leg of Friday's Pick 4 with an experienced juvenile, and Discreetly Mine looks like the one to catch.
VISION D'AMOUR is the first foal out of a half-sister to Noisette, a Grade 3 winner on turf, and Roi Maudit, a multiple stakes-winner with earnings of almost 200K.  The August 16 work matches up with trainer Bill Mott's juvenile Come From Behind, a second-out winner at Saratoga with an 85 Beyer Speed Figure.  The young sire, Saarland, has struggled with debut types to the tune of 1-32 lifetime, however.
FLEXTHEGOLDENPIPES, a $95,000 RNA earlier this year, finished behind Discreetly Mine three weeks ago, but can improve for excellent, underrated trainer.   This dam is an unplaced half-sister to the fleet sprinter Gibson County, a multiple stakes-winner of 376K.
RYVIT turns back in distance, switches from turf to dirt, and adds blinkers for his second lifetime start so there are plenty of angles in attendance for a colt that should go off at solid odds.  He's the first foal out of an unraced full sister to Breeders' Cup Classic winner Concern, cost $145,000 as a weanling, $160,000 as a yearling, and $120,000 earlier this year, and may appreciate getting to race on the main track.
HAMMERING BUCKEYE's dam not only won her debut at two, but she also took the Grade 2 Turfway Breeders' Cup en route to 414K in earnings.  Originally a $7,000 yearling, the Stormin Fever colt resold for $110,000 in May after working a furlong in 10.2.  He doesn't show a published workout in the last 22 days. CALVELLO clunked up for third in his career debut, but took a step backward when racing greenly at the Spa.  The addition of blinkers should help him keep his focus this time around.  SUPER SAVER is a firster out of a winning full sister to Grade 3 winner Accelerator (second in the Wood Memorial, third in the Met Mile), and Daydreaming (Grade 2 stakes winner).  Todd Pletcher and John Velazquez are an extremely potent first-out combination.  The August 9 workout matches up with Brother Bird, Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird's half-brother that finished third for Pletcher in his career debut earlier in the meet.  GATHERING CLOUD, a $45,000 yearling, resold for $100,000 earlier this year after working a quarter-mile in 21.1.  Several workouts match up with Barclay Tagg's juvenile Gun Rock, a runner-up here in his career debut on August 9.  NORTHERN GIANT is the first starter out of an unraced half-sister to multiple Grade 1 winner Take Charge Lady.  The August 15 workout matches up with Soundman, a runner-up in an optional claimer for juveniles yesterday afternoon for Mr. Lukas.  DOUBLE O UNO sold for $85,000 last year, but went for $165,000 after working two furlongs in 21 flat in February.  That last workout matches up with Fearless Cowboy, the third-place finisher of the Saratoga Special earlier in the week for Kiaran McLaughlin.  The dam was a multiple stakes-winner of over 225K. QUICK RIDE is the first starter out of a juvenile sprint-winning half-sister to Grade 1 winner, and successful sire, Jade Hunter.  Mr. Zito has struggled with debut runners this year, though, and the workouts fail to entice.  PINDERS GAP goes out for barn that sent out a juvenile debut runner to finish second on yesterday's card.  This dam was multiple stakes-placed, but the sire, Deputy Commander, is a very poor first-out stallion with a 9-204 record with juvenile debut runners.

Selections:
1.  Discreetly Mine  2.  Vision d'Amour  3.  Ryvit

The Play:
Discreetly Mine to Win at 9-5 odds or greater
.


Meet record based on starts, wins, top pick (after scratches) in the money, and profit/loss of that day's play ($2 wager):  41-8-23 (+ $9.10)