08/04/2008 11:00PM

Spa Babies for 8/2

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Welcome to Spa Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile contest at the meet. Hopefully, we'll end up with a tidy profit.

Thursday's result:
Race 2: Bounissimo finished seventh.

Friday's result:
No two-year-old races

Saturday, August 2, 2008

Race 2
6 1/2 Furlongs
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-olds
Purse $62,000

1. Tufao (Holy Bull - Tipperary Melody, by Rahy)
Trainer: William Mott
- Foaled March 24, 2006 in Kentucky
- $65,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2007)
- $460,000 juvenile (Keeneland April 2008)
- sire was a multiple Grade 1 winner (16-13-0-0, $2,481,760, 4-4 at two, 5-5 in main track sprints, 1-3 in mud/slop)
- sire is 16-263 (6%) with juvenile debut runners
- sire is 1-25 (4%, $0.22 ROI) with all debut runners in 2008 (juvenile debut winner)
- dam was a Grade 3-placed sprinter at two (6-1-3-1, $68,540, all races sprinting on the main track at two, 0-2 in mud/slop, cost $375,000 as a yearling)
- dam has five runners, two winners, one juvenile runner, no juvenile winners, one mud/slop runner, no mud/slop winners
- Rahy is 3-36 (8%, $0.94 ROI) as the broodmare sire of all debut runners in 2008 (all older debut winners)
- second dam is stakes-winning sprinter Saratoga Sizzle (21-4-4-2, $137,818, 1-5 at two, won debut, 4-19 in main track sprints, unraced in mud/slop)
- female family of Grade 2 turf winner Autumn Glitter, Grade 3 winner Confirmed Dancer, and Grade 2 winner Hollycombe
- trainer is 27-242 (11%, $1.06 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 8-74 (11%, $0.86 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners at Saratoga
- trainer is 0-30 with debut runners in 2008
- worked a quarter-mile in 21.2 prior to the April sale

1A. Powerchord (Touch Gold - Fancy Clancy, by Rahy)
Trainer: William Mott
-Foaled February 1, 2006 in Kentucky
- half-brother to stakes-winning router Fancy Fusaichi (13-4-3-2, $224,559, unraced at two, 0-3 in main track sprints, 2-3 in mud/slop)
- sire was a multiple Grade 1 route winner (15-6-3-1, $1,679,907, 1-4 at two, won debut, 2-3 in main track sprints, unraced in mud/slop)
- sire is 21-204 (10%) with juvenile debut runners
- sire is 2-31 (6%, $1.71 ROI) with all debut runners in 2008 (both older debut winners)
- dam was a turf winner (9-3-1-0, $67,210, unraced at two, all races on turf)
- dam has three runners, three winners, two juvenile runners, no juvenile winners, two mud/slop runners, one mud/slop winner
- Rahy is 3-36 (8%, $0.94 ROI) as the broodmare sire of all debut runners in 2008 (all older debut winners)
- dam a half-sister to stakes-winner (France) Fabuleux Dancer (5-1-2-0, $24,751, unraced at two)
- dam a half-sister to Group 3-placed (France) Danseur Fabuleux (13-0-4-3, $25,139, 0-2 at two, dam of Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Arazi, and British Group 1 winner Noverre)
-dam a half-sister to Grade 3 winner Doubles Partner (12-6-1-0, $180,869, 1-2 at two, 3-6 in main track sprints, 1-2 in mud/slop)
- dam a half-sister to stakes-placed (France) Sakura Patrick (12-2-1-1, $40,801, 0-2 at two)
- dam a half-sister to Grade 1 turf winner Joyeux Danseur (14-8-0-1, $645,228, unraced at two, 0-1 in main track sprints, unraced in mud/slop)
- trainer is 27-242 (11%, $1.06 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 8-74 (11%, $0.86 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners at Saratoga
- trainer is 0-30 with debut runners in 2008

2. Coach Gravy (Grand Slam - Caiseal Ros, by Roi Danzig)
Trainer: Steven Asmussen
- Foaled March 10, 2006 in Kentucky
- withdrawn yearling (Keeneland September 2007)
- sire was a multiple Grade 1 winner at two (15-4-5-2, $971,292, 3-5 at two, won debut, 1-4 in main track sprints, 1-3 in mud/slop)
- sire is 34-270 (13%) with juvenile debut runners
- sire is 6-57 (11%, $0.75 ROI) with all debut runners in 2008 (one juvenile debut winner)
- dam was a Group 3 winner in Ireland (18-5-3-3, $117,284, 3-6 at two, unraced in main track sprints, 0-1 in mud/slop)
- dam has five runners, four winners, one juvenile runners, no juvenile winners, one mud/slop runner, one mud/slop winner
- Roi Danzig is 1-1 (100%, $6.60 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2008 (older debut runner)
- dam a half-sister to stakes-winner (Puerto Rico) Titilda (25-5-5-2, $27,518, 1-12 at two)
- dam a full sister to stakes-placed (Hong Kong) Cashel Market (99-9-7-5, $406,421, 1-2 at two)
- trainer is 132-670 (20%, $1.85 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 7-31 (23%, $1.45 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners at Saratoga
- trainer is 35-177 (20%, $1.61 ROI) with all debut runners in 2008 (34 with Lasix, 25 juvenile debut winners, one for this owner)
- June 17 workout matches barn's juvenile filly Gold Plated (finished sixth in career debut over Presque Isle Downs' Tapeta surface on July 11 with 34 Beyer)
- June 17 workout matches barn's three-year-old filly Livelovelaugh (finished second in $35,000 maiden claimer at Churchill Downs on June 21 with 53 Beyer)
- June 24 workout matches barn's juvenile filly War Echo (finished seventh in career debut at Saratoga on July 27 with 34 Beyer)
- July 1 workout matches barn's juvenile filly Remedy (finished eighth in career debut on grass on July 28 at Saratoga with 66 Beyer)

3. Keeping the Honor (Tapit - Mepanache, by Deputy Minister)
Trainer: Patrick Reynolds
- Foaled March 9, 2006 in Kentucky
- $80,000 weanling (Keeneland November 2006)
- $185,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2007)
- $200,000 RNA juvenile (Fasig-Tipton February 2008)
- out juvenile (Keeneland April 2008)
- first-crop sire was a Grade 1 route winner (6-3-0-0, $557,300, 2-2 at two, unraced in main track sprints, 0-1 in mud/slop)
- sire is 1-26 (4%) with all juvenile runners in 2008
- dam was unraced
- this is dam's first runner
- dam a half-sister to juvenile stakes-winning sprinter Miss Valid Pache (48-5-5-7, $166,023, 2-7 at two, 5-38 in main track sprints, 1-9 in mud/slop)
- dam a half-sister to multiple Grade 3 winner Valid Expectations (27-12-3-6, $596,092, 4-7 at two, 10-23 in main track sprints, 3-4 in mud/slop)
- dam a half-sister to Grade 3 sprint winner Little Sister (38-17-8-5, $720,568, 2-4 at two, 17-37 in main track sprints, 2-4 in mud/slop)
- dam a half-sister to stakes-placed sprinter Copelan's Pache (47-7-4-5, $193,507, 2-4 at two, 6-36 in main track sprints, 0-2 in mud/slop)
- dam a half-sister to juvenile stakes-winning sprinter Littleexpectations (17-6-2-1, $205,480, 4-4 at two, 6-15 in main track sprints, 0-1 in mud/slop)
- dam a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed sprinter Babyexpectations (10-2-1-3, $60,185, 2-4 at two, 2-10 in main track sprints, 1-2 in mud/slop)
- dam a half-sister to juvenile Grade 3-placed sprinter Red Apache (8-2-2-0, $95,400, 2-6 at two, 2-7 in main track sprints, unraced in mud/slop)
- trainer is 1-16 (6%, $1.66 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juvenile starters
- trainer is 0-1 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners at Saratoga
- worked one furlong in 10.4 prior to the February sale

4. Viscount (Orientate - Art Student, by El Prado)
Trainer: Seth Benzel
- Foaled April 2, 2006 in Kentucky
- $62,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2007)
- $350,000 juvenile (Keeneland April 2008)
- half-brother to juvenile stakes-winner Art Show (24-5-9-5, $243,500, 2-6 at two, 1-2 in main track sprints, 1-1 in mud/slop)
- sire was a multiple Grade 1 sprint winner (19-10-3-0, $1,716,950, 0-2 at two, 8-11 in main track sprints, 2-2 in mud/slop)
- sire is 15-100 (15%) with juvenile debut runners
- sire is 4-32 (12%, $1.11 ROI) with all debut runners in 2008 (three juvenile debut winners)
- dam was a stakes-winner (3-3-0-0, $38,047, unraced at two, 2-2 in main track sprints, unraced in mud/slop, cost $52,000 as a yearling)
- dam has two runners, two winners, two juvenile runners, one juvenile winner, two mud/slop runners, two mud/slop winners
- El Prado is 3-42 (7%, $1.15 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2008 (one juvenile debut winner)
- trainer is 0-1 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- this is trainer's first debut runner of 2008
- worked a quarter mile in 21.2 prior to April sale

5. Spaniard (Candy Ride - Shameful, by Flying Chevron)
Trainer: Bob Baffert
- half-brother to multiple Grade 1 winner Indian Blessing (8-6-2-0, $1,847,200, 3-3 at two, 3-3 in main track sprints, 2-2 in mud/slop)
- first-crop sire was a multiple Grade/Group 1 (USA/Argentina) winner (6-6-0-0, $749,149, unraced at two, 1-1 in main track sprints, unraced in mud/slop)
- sire is 4-25 (16%) with all juvenile runners in 2008
- dam was a stakes-winning sprinter (12-4-3-2, $241,345, unraced at two, all races in main track sprints, 0-1 in mud/slop, cost $14,000 as a weanling, and $50,000 as a yearling)
- dam has three runners, three winners, three juvenile runners, one juvenile winner, two mud/slop runners, one mud/slop winner
- dam a half-sister to stakes-winning router Little Matth Man (36-4-2-3, $223,166, 2-8 at two, 2-18 in main track sprints, 2-5 in mud/slop)
- trainer is 25-121 (21%, $1.26 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juvenile starters
- trainer is 1-3 (33%, $1.67 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juvenile starters at Saratoga

6. Nowhere to Hide (Vindication - Stirring, by Seeking the Gold)
Trainer: Nicholas Zito
- Foaled February 1, 2006 in Kentucky
- $200,000 weanling (Keeneland November 2006)
- $250,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2007)
- sire was a Grade 1 route winner at two (4-4-0-0, $680,950, 4-4 at two, 2-2 in main track sprints, unraced in mud/slop)
- sire is 10-59 (17%) with juvenile debut runners
- sire is 4-26 (15%, $1.32 ROI) with all debut runners in 2008 (one juvenile debut winner)
- dam was unraced
- this is dam's first runner-
Seeking the Gold is 4-33 (12%, $2.28 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2008 (all older debut winners)
- dam a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Handpainted (12-5-2-2, $435,406, 3-4 at two, won debut, 4-7 in main track sprints, unraced in mud/slop)
- dam a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed router Serenading (11-3-6-1, $240,001, unraced at two, 0-2 in main track sprints, unraced in mud/slop)
- trainer is 24-177 (14%, $1.94 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 14-74 (19%, $2.58 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners at Saratoga
- trainer is 2-14 (14%, $1.30 ROI) with all debut runners in 2008 (one juvenile debut winner at this meet, both winners with Lasix)
- June 10, June 17 workout matches barn's juvenile Brave Victory (finished second in career debut at Saratoga with 75 Beyer)
- June 17 workout went .01 slower than barn's three-year-old He's Solid Gold (finished third in 'n2L' allowance at Belmont on July 12 with 83 Beyer)

7. Fieldstone (Werblin - Stormy Future, by Future Storm)
Trainer: Dale Romans
- Foaled May 2, 2006 in Florida
- $47,000 short yearling (OBS Winter January 2007)
- $82,000 yearling (OBS Select August 2007)
- out yearling (Keeneland September 2007)
- withdrawn juvenile (OBS Open March 2008)
- first-crop sire was multiple Grade 2-placed (10-2-1-3, $120,615, 2-2 at two, 2-9 in main track sprints, unraced in mud/slop)
- sire is 2-11 (18%) with all juvenile runners in 2008
- dam was placed sprinting in the mud (3-0-1-0, $7,020, 0-1 at two, all races sprinting on the main track in mud/slop)
- dam has two runners, one winner, one juvenile runner, no juvenile winners, no mud/slop runners
- second dam is juvenile stakes-winning sprinter Perilous Star (7-3-1-2, $52,049, 2-3 at two, 3-7 in main track sprints, 1-1 in mud/slop)
- trainer is 20-144 (14%, $1.02 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juvenile starters
- trainer is 0-18 over the past five years with second-time juvenile starters at Saratoga

8. Precious Package (Golden Missile - Silver Ridan, by Silver Deputy)
Trainer: Richard Dutrow Jr.
- Foaled May 3, 2006 in Kentucky
- sire was a Grade 1 route winner (25-7-7-4, $2,194,510, 0-1 at two, 0-1 in main track sprints, 2-3 in mud/slop)
- sire is 39-389 (10%) with juvenile runners
- Golden Missile - Silver Deputy 'nick' has produced multiple stakes-winner Miss Missile (18-8-1-1, $284,319, 5-11 at two, 6-10 in main track sprints, 2-2 in mud/slop)
- Golden Missile - Silver Deputy 'nick' has produced stakes-winner Ginger Bay (6-3-2-0, $96,262, 0-1 at two, all races in main track sprints, unraced in mud/slop)
- dam was a sprint winner (2-1-0-0, $25,890, unraced at two, all races sprinting on the main track, unraced in mud/slop, cost $172,000 as a yearling)
- dam has three runners, two winners, two juvenile runners, no juvenile winners, two mud/slop runners, one mud/slop winner
- dam a half-sister to stakes-winner Brilliant Prospect (15-6-4-3, $85,975, 1-1 at two, 4-13 in main track sprints, 1-1 in mud/slop)
- dam a half-sister to stakes-winner Snowberg (19-6-8-4, $455,728, 2-4 at two, 5-12 in main track sprints, 0-1 in mud/slop)
- trainer is 11-60 (18%, $1.00 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juvenile starters
trainer is 2-12 (17%, $1.31 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juvenile starters at Saratoga

9. Blank Check (Awesome Again - Jostlin Kate, by Fit to Fight)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
- Foaled April 3, 2006 in Kentucky
- $230,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2007)
- entered juvenile (Fasig-Tipton Spring May 2008)
- sire was a multiple Grade 1 route winner (12-9-0-2, $4,374,590, unraced at two, 0-1 in main track sprints, 2-2 in mud/slop)
- sire is 11-142 (8%) with juvenile debut runners
- sire is 2-20 (10%, $1.87 ROI) with all debut runners in 2008 (one juvenile debut winner)
- dam was a route winner (22-3-4-0, $29,379, 0-3 at two, 0-11 in main track sprints, 1-6 in mud/slop, cost $54,000 as a yearling)
- dam has one runner, no winners, one juvenile runner, no mud/slop runners
- Fit to Fight is 3-30 (10%, $1.13 ROI) as the broodmare sire of all debut runners in 2008 (all older debut winners)
- second dam is stakes-winner Foolin Spruce (48-12-7-6, $234,282, 2-6 at two, 1-7 in main track sprints, 5-9 in mud/slop)
- trainer is 97-450 (22%, $1.57 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
-trainer is 22-107 (21%, $1.47 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners at Saratoga
- trainer is 16-82 (20%, $1.57 ROI) with all debut runners in 2008 (all winners with Lasix, one with blinkers, nine juvenile debut winners, two debut winners this meet)
June 26 workout went .03 slower than barn's juvenile Footnote This (finished sixth in career debut at Saratoga on July 27 with 37 Beyer)
- July 18 workout went .05 slower than barn's juvenile Keep 'Em Movin Dan (finished second in career debut at Saratoga on July 31 with 78 Beyer)

10. Luv Gov (Ten Most Wanted - City of Silver, by Nepal)
Trainer: D Wayne Lukas
- Foaled February 12, 2006 in Kentucky
- first-crop sire was a Grade 1 route winner (13-5-3-1, $1,718,460, 0-1 at two, unraced at two, 0-1 in mud/slop)
- sire is 0-28 with all juvenile runners in 2008
- dam was a sprint winner (5-1-0-0, $17,030, unraced at two, all races sprinting on the main track, 0-1 in mud/slop)
- dam has two runners, one winner, two juvenile runners, no juvenile winners, one mud/slop runner, no mud/slop winners
- dam a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed Silver Launch (16-3-2-3, $156,370, 1-6 at two, 2-7 in main track sprints, 0-2 in mud/slop)
- trainer is 11-162 (7%, $0.99 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juvenile starters
- trainer is 3-39 (8%, $1.37 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juvenile starters at Saratoga

Analysis:
Nick Zito sent out juvenile debut winner Miss Ocean City earlier in the meet off a series of three and four furlong workouts, and repeats the pattern with NOWHERE TO HIDE, a $250,000 yearling from the family of With Approval and Touch Gold. Nowhere to Hide shows a sharp bullet workout on June 10, and deserves respect based on connections and pedigree.
POWERCHORD may be bred more for grass, and is cross-entered at Monmouth on Saturday afternoon. He is a half-brother to a stakes-winner on the main track, however, and Bill Mott is overdue for a debut winner.
KEEPING THE HONOR has lots of speed on the bottom of his pedigree, and can improve off his debut. He broke poorly that day, and Pat Reynolds (trainer of record for Big Brown's win here last summer) removes the blinkers.
BLANK CHECK makes career debut for the dangerous Todd Pletcher barn, but it's interesting to note that Pletcher's go-to rider, John Velazquez, opts for SPANIARD. That one, a half-brother to champion Indian Blessing, exits a key race at Hollywood, and may appreciate the move to dirt. PRECIOUS PACKAGE raced greenly at Monmouth, but switches to Prado for excellent barn. FIELDSTONE comes out of a Churchill race that produced three next-out winners. COACH GRAVY hails from a top debut barn, but has lots of grass pedigree, and draws a tough post. LUV GOV raced wide in a key race at Churchill, but must improve off that 39 Beyer effort. TUFAO cost $460,000 earlier in the year. VISCOUNT shows solid drills for trainer Seth Benzel, a former assistant to Pletcher.

Selections:
1. Nowhere to Hide
2. Powerchord
3. Keeping the Honor

The play:
Nowhere to Hide to Win at 5-2 odds or greater

Record based on starts, wins, top pick (after scratches) in the money, and profit/loss of that day's play ($2 wager):
15-3-7 (+ $6.60)