08/04/2008 11:00PM

Spa Babies for 7/31

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Welcome to Spa Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile contest at the meet. Hopefully, we'll end up with a tidy profit.

Wednesday's results:
Race 2: Akalina finished first
Race 5: Double Domino finished first

Thursday, July 31, 2008

Race 2
5 1/2 Furlongs
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-olds
Purse $62,000

1. Tapit's Brew (Tapit - Looking for a Star, by Sea Hero)
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
- Foaled February 8, 2006 in Kentucky
- $30,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2007)
- $280,000 juvenile (OBS Open March 2008)
- first-crop sire was a Grade 1 route winner (6-3-0-0, $557,300, 2-2 at two, unraced in main track sprints, 0-1 in mud/slop)
- sire is 1-15 (7%, $0.52 ROI) with juvenile debut runners in 2008
- dam was unplaced (3-0-0-0, $0, 0-2 at two, all races in main track sprints, 0-1 in mud/slop)
- dam has one runner, no winners, one juvenile runner, no mud/slop runners
- Sea Hero is 1-10 (10%, $0.36 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2008 (older debut winner)
- dam a full sister to Grade 2-placed Mandarin Marsh (34-4-5-6, $174,786, 1-7 at two, 1-6 in main track sprints, 0-3 in mud/slop)
- dam a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Holy Fashion (12-4-1-2, $83,030, 2-3 at two, won debut, 4-11 in main track sprints, 1-1 in mud/slop)
- trainer is 17-132 (13%, $1.74 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 2-27 (7%, $0.68 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners at Saratoga
- trainer is 5-28 (18%, $2.19 ROI) with all debut runners in 2008 (all winners with Lasix, three juvenile debut winners, four with Alan Garcia aboard)
- worked one furlong in 10.2 prior to the March sale
- June 27 workout matches barn's juvenile filly Jockey O (finished sixth in career debut at Monmouth in $50,000 maiden claimer on July 20 with 28 Beyer)
- July 6 workout went .02 faster than barn's juvenile Sello (finished fifth in career debut on turf at Belmont on July 11 with 52 Beyer)
- July 28 workout matches barn's juvenile Winthrop House (67 Beyer)

2. Gentleman Jeter (Yankee Gentleman - B. W. Chargit, by Meadowlake)
Trainer: William Mott
- Foaled February 25, 2006 in Kentucky
- $75,000 yearling (Fasig-Tipton Summer July 2007)
- $175,000 RNA juvenile (OBS Select February 2008)
- half-brother to stakes-placed B. W. Beetle (11-3-4-0, $46,835, unraced at two, 2-6 in main track sprints, 1-2 in mud/slop)
- sire was a stakes-winner (10-4-1-0, $202,547, unraced at two, 3-7 in main track sprints, 1-1 in mud/slop)
- sire is 7-39 (18%) with juvenile debut runners
- sire is 1-15 (7%, $1.88 ROI) with all debut runners in 2008 (older debut winner)
- dam was a sprint winner at two (3-1-0-0, $9,220, 1-2 at two, all races in main track sprints, unraced in mud/slop, cost $82,000 as a juvenile)
- dam has three runners, three winners, one juvenile runner, one juvenile winners, two mud/slop runners, one mud/slop winner
- Meadowlake is 7-64 (11%, $0.83 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2008 (two juvenile debut winners)
- dam a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed Light Them All (100-8-26-14, $191,593, 0-3 at two, 1-32 in main track sprints, 0-7 in mud/slop)
- dam a half-sister to multiple Grade 2-placed Let Goodtimes Roll (26-5-6-3, $206,034, unraced at two, 3-13 in main track sprints, unraced in mud/slop)
- trainer is 27-241 (11%, $1.06 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 6-73 (11%, $0.87 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners at Saratoga
- trainer was 15-113 (13%, $1.23 ROI) with all debut runners in 2007 (14 winners with Lasix, two with blinkers, 10 juvenile debut winners, six debut winners at Saratoga, seven with Kent Desormeaux aboard, eight for this owner)
- worked one furlong in 10.1 prior to the February sale
- July 4 workout matches barn's juvenile Charlie Trumper (finished fifth in career debut at Saratoga on July 25 with 49 Beyer)

3. After Shock (Elusive Quality - Shawnee Country, by Chief's Crown)
Trainer: Dallas Stewart
- Foaled April 15, 2006 in Kentucky
- $45,000 RNA yearling (Keeneland September 2007)
- sire was a multiple Grade 3 winner on turf (20-9-3-2, $413,284, unraced at two, 5-12 in main track sprints, 3-5 in mud/slop)
- sire is 66-413 (16%) with juvenile runners
- dam was a multiple Grade 3 winner (11-5-0-1, $430,660, 3-7 at two, 2-6 in main track sprints, 1-2 in mud/slop, cost $200,000 as a yearling)
- dam has four runners, no winners, two juvenile runners, two mud/slop winners
- dam a half-sister to stakes-placed Sir Hopeful (18-4-7-0, $66,625, 0-2 at two, 4-15 in main track sprints, unraced in mud/slop)
- trainer is 18-95 (19%, $2.18 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juvenile starters
- trainer is 3-15 (20%, $2.91 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juvenile starters at Saratoga

4. Keep'em Movin Dan (Distorted Humor - Queen of Money, by Corporate Report)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
- Foaled March 31, 2006 in Kentucky
- $875,000 yearling (Fasig-Tipton Select August 2007)
- half-brother to stakes-placed sprinter Miss Skagit State (10-1-1-2, $41,006, unraced at two, all races in main track sprints, 0-1 in mud/slop)
- half-brother to juvenile stakes-winning sprinter Pocketfullofpesos (12-5-0-0, $192,516, 3-4 at two, 5-11 in main track sprints, 1-1 in mud/slop)
- half-brother to multiple stakes-winner Quiet Cash (23-9-5-2, $355,541, 1-6 at two, 4-5 in main track sprints, 3-3 in mud/slop)
- sire was a multiple Grade 2 sprint winner (23-8-5-3, $769,964, unraced at two, 7-13 in main track sprints, 0-2 in mud/slop)
- sire is 38-204 (19%) with juvenile debut runners
- sire is 6-39 (15%, $2.80 ROI) with all debut runners in 2008 (all older winners)
- dam was a Grade 3 winner (8-3-1-1, $167,325, 2-5 at two, 2-4 in main track sprints, 2-3 in mud/slop, cost $25,000 as a yearling)
- dam has six runners, six winners, three juvenile runners, three juvenile winners, five mud/slop runners, two mud/slop winners
- Corporate Report is 1-10 (10%, $7.84 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2008 (juvenile debut winner)
- trainer is 97-449 (22%, $1.60 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 22-106 (21%, $1.45 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners at Saratoga
- trainer is 16-81 (20%, $1.53 ROI) with all debut runners in 2008 (all winners with Lasix, one with blinkers, nine juvenile debut winners, two winners at this meet, 13 wtih John Velazquez aboard)
- June 11 workout matches barn's juvenile filly Me You and Her (finished seventh in career debut at Monmouth on July 19 with 24 Beyer)

5. Bounissimo (Cherokee Run - Floral Beauty, by Gone West)
Trainer: Kenneth McPeek
- Foaled January 20, 2006 in Kentucky
- $270,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2007)
- sire was a Grade 1 sprint winner (28-13-5-5, $1,531,818, 5-7 at two, won debut, 10-17 in main track sprints, 4-6 in mud/slop)
- sire is 27-294 (9%) with juvenile debut runners
- sire is 2-34 (6%, $0.71 ROI) with all debut runners in 2008 (both juvenile debut winners)
- dam was unraced (cost for $450,000 as a yearling)
- dam has one runner, one winner, one juvenile runner, one juvenile winner, one juvenile debut winner, no mud/slop runners
- Gone West is 5-38 (13%, $1.38 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2008 (all older debut winners)
- dam a half-sister to stakes-placed Wow (18-3-1-2, $81,855, 0-1 at two, 1-5 in main track sprints, 2-3 in mud/slop)
- dam a half-sister to Group 3 (France) turf winner Kentucky Dynamite (11-3-2-2, $243,796, 1-3 at two, unraced in main track sprints, unraced in mud/slop)
- trainer is 15-138 (11%, $2.10 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 1-12 (8%, $1.35 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners at Saratoga
- trainer is 5-26 (19%, $2.76 ROI) with all debut runners in 2008 (four winners with Lasix, two with Robby Albarado aboard, three juvenile debut winners)

6. Fast Draw (Gone West - Bright Candles, by El Gran Senor)
Trainer: D Wayne Lukas
- Foaled February 5, 2006 in Kentucky
- $925,000 RNA yearling (Keeneland September 2007)
- half-brother to stakes-placed sprinter Dodie Mae (8-2-0-1, $45,215, 2-7 at two, 2-7 in main track sprints, unraced in mud/slop)
- half-brother to multiple stakes-winner Leestown (32-6-5-2, $322,167, 2-11 at two, 3-12 in main track sprints, 2-8 in mud/slop)
- full brother to multiple Grade 1 juvenile winner Grand Slam (15-4-5-2, $971,292, 3-5 at two, 1-4 in main track sprints, 1-3 in mud/slop)
- half-brother to stakes-placed Gold Market (7-1-4-1, $59,160, 1-5 at two, 1-4 in main track sprints, unraced in mud/slop)
- half-brother to Grade 3-placed Miner's Lamp (25-3-8-2, $176,415, 1-3 at two, 3-20 in main track sprints, 2-4 in mud/slop)
- sire was a Grade 1 route winner (17-6-4-2, $682,251, 1-4 at two, 3-5 in main track sprints, 3-5 in mud/slop)
- sire is 103-566 (18%) with juvenile runners
- dam was a multiple stakes-winner (34-5-6-8, $405,091, 1-4 at two, 4-17 in main track sprints, 0-4 in mud/slop, cost $675,000 as a yearling)
- dam has 12 runners, 10 winners, 11 juvenile runners, five juvenile winners, eight mud/slop runners, three mud/slop winners
- dam a half-sister to stakes-winner (UAE) Shebl (20-4-3-4, $73,786, 1-9 at two, 0-5 in main track sprints)
- dam a half-sister to stakes-winner Bonus Money (39-7-3-7, $229,551, 0-7 at two, 1-11 in main track sprints, 1-4 in mud/slop)
- dam a half-sister to multiple Grade 3 turf winner Christmas Gift (22-7-4-1, $387,176, 2-6 at two, 0-3 in main track sprints, 0-1 in mud/slop)
- trainer is 11-162 (7%, $0.99 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juvenile starters
- trainer is 3-38 (8%, $1.41 ROI) over the past five years with second-time starters at Saratoga

7. Insider (Out of Place - Doe River, by Kris S.)
Trainer: Patrick Kelly
- Foaled February 16, 2006 in Florida
- sire was a Grade 3 route winner (25-8-6-7, $733,450, unraced at two, 2-4 in main track sprints, 1-3 in mud/slop)
- sire is 36-298 (12%) with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 1-12 (8%, $0.82 ROI) with all debut runners in 2008 (juvenile debut winner)
- Out of Place - Kris S. 'nick' has produced Grade 3 winner Royal Place (47-7-5-7, $428,837, 1-4 at two, won debut, 2-12 in main track sprints, 0-3 in mud/slop)
- Out of Place - Kris S. 'nick' has produced multiple Grade 3 winner Meetyouathebrig (18-6-3-3, $347,005, 3-5 at two, won debut, 4-10 in main track sprints, 0-2 in mud/slop)
- Out of Place - Kris S. 'nick' has produced stakes-winning router Sort It Out (21-4-3-1, $312,318, 1-6 at two, 0-3 in main track sprints, 0-2 in mud/slop)
- Out of Place - Kris S. 'nick' has produced stakes-winner Always My Place (18-7-4-3, $91,558, 1-2 at two, 2-7 in main track sprints, 0-1 in mud/slop)
- dam was a winner (13-2-2-1, $41,761, unraced at two, 0-1 in main track sprints, 1-2 in mud/slop)
- dam has three runners, two winners, two juvenile runners, two juvenile winners, one juvenile debut winner, two mud/slop runners, no mud/slop winners
- Kris S. is 1-50 (2%, $0.56 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2008 (older debut winner)
- dam a half-sister to Grade 1 route winner Sir Beaufort (34-10-10-4, $1,149,130, 0-3 at two, 4-10 in main track sprints, 2-3 in mud/slop)
- trainer is 3-44 (7%, $1.85 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 0-9 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners at Saratoga

8. Valiancy (Tale of the Cat - Sobinka, by Sadler's Wells)
Trainer: Steven Asmussen
- Foaled April 1, 2006 in Kentucky
- entered yearling (Fasig-Tipton Summer July 2007)
- $100,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2007)
- $100,000 juvenile (OBS Select February 2008)
- sire was a Grade 2 sprint winner (9-5-1-2, $360,900, unraced at two, 1-3 in main track sprints, 2-2 in mud/slop)
- sire is 146-769 (19%) with juvenile runners
- dam was a winner on turf in France (11-3-0-1, $16,039, unraced at two, 0-1 in main track sprints, 0-1 in mud/slop)
- this is dam's first runner
- second dam is stakes-winner (France) Krajina (9-3-0-0, $68,494, 0-4 at two, all races on grass in France)
- female family of Grade 1 turf winner Tuzla
- trainer is 137-531 (26%, $1.78 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juvenile starters
- trainer is 8-21 (38%, $3.03 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juvenile starters at Saratoga (three winners this meet)
- worked one furlong in 10.1 prior to the February sale

Analysis:
BOUNISSIMO sold for $270,000 last year, and is a grandson of Chelsea Flower, a Grade 1 winner on turf ($568,305 in earnings). Trainer Ken McPeek shows excellent numbers with debut runners in 2008.
VALIANCY took tons of money for his debut at Churchill Downs, but broke poorly, and had to settle for second in the slower division of juvenile maiden special weights on July 2. Steve Asmussen excels with young horses, and his charge should be in a good forward spot when they turn for home.
FAST DRAW, a full brother to Grand Slam, showed good speed in his debut at Churchill, but faltered in the slower division of maiden special weights on July 5. Expect Edgar Prado to have him on or near the lead.
GENTLEMAN JETER is bred both sides for speed, but Bill Mott is 0-29 this year with debut runners. AFTER SHOCK was dead on the board in his debut at Churchill, but that was the race that went faster than Valiancy's maiden heat. Still, he needs to improve off that performance. TAPIT'S BREW sold very well earlier this year, but is stuck inside. KEEP'EM MOVIN DAN wouldn't be a surprise as a Pletcher-Velazquez project, but the workouts don't entice. INSIDER boasts a potent sire-broodmare sire 'nick,' but may need a start.

Selections:
1. Bounissimo
2. Valiancy
3. Fast Draw

The Play:
Bounissimo to Win and Place at 9-2 odds or more.

Record based on starts, wins, top pick (after scratches) in the money, and profit/loss of that day's play ($2 wager):
14-3-7 (+ $10.60)