07/26/2008 11:00PM

Spa Babies for 7/26

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Welcome to Spa Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile contest at the meet. Hopefully, we'll end up with a tidy profit.

Friday's results:
Race 2: Forest Tango scratched; second choice Join in the Dance finished first
Race 4: Vinnies Wild Tale finished fourth

Saturday, July 26, 2008

Race 2
6 Furlongs
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-olds
Purse $62,000

1. Prince of Wealth (Empire Maker - Dreams Gallore, by Silver Ghost)
Trainer: William Mott
- Foaled February 7, 2006 in Kentucky
- sire was a multiple Grade 1 route winner (8-4-3-1, $1,985,800, 1-2 at two, won debut, unraced in main track sprints, 2-2 in mud/slop)
- sire is 1-25 (4%) with juvenile debut runners
- sire is 1-27 (4%, $0.30 ROI) with all debut runners in 2008 (older winner going long on turf)
- dam was a Grade 1 route winner (16-5-5-2, $588,615, 2-3 at two, won debut, 2-4 in main track sprints, 2-3 in mud/slop, cost $40,000 as a juvenile)
- Silver Ghost is 4-33 (12%, $2.82 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2008 (one juvenile debut winner)
- this is dam's first runner
- dam a half-sister to multiple turf stakes-winner Fateful Dream (18-5-2-4, $294,472, 1-3 at two in France, unraced in main track sprints, unraced in mud/slop)
- dam a half-sister to Grade 3 route winner Absent Friend (49-7-4-11, $340,796,unraced at two, 0-3 in main track sprints, 2-9 in mud/slop)
- dam a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed juvenile turfer Giant Chieftan (14-3-0-3, $124,903, 1-4 at two, unraced in dirt sprints, 2-3 in mud/slop)
- trainer is 27-237 (11%, $1.08 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 8-71 (11%, $0.90 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners at Saratoga
- trainer was 15-113 (13%, $1.23 ROI) with all debut runners in 2007 (fourteen with Lasix, two with blinkers, seven with Kent Desormeaux aboard, ten juvenile debut winners, six at Saratoga)
- June 27, July 23 workouts match barn's entrymate Successful Mission

1A. Successful Mission (Successful Affair - Ava Knowsthecode, by Cryptoclearance)
Trainer: William Mott
- Foaled March 2, 2006 in Kentucky
- half-brother to Grade 2 sprint winner Keyed Entry (12-4-1-1, $322,852, 1-1 at two, 4-8 in main track sprints, 1-3 in mud/slop)
- half-brother to turf stakes-winner Alex's Allure (12-3-2-0, $69,270, 0-2 at two, unraced in main track sprints, 0-2 in mud/slop)
- $360,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2007)
- sire was a multiple Grade 2 winner (22-8-2-4, $654,681, 3-6 at two, 7-13 in main track sprints, 0-2 in mud/slop)
- sire is 19-97 (20%) with juvenile debut runners
- sire is 4-24 (17%, $1.21 ROI) with all debut runners in 2008 (all older runners)
- dam was Grade-placed on turf (29-3-5-3, $156,596, 0-5 at two, 0-3 in main track sprints, unraced in mud/slop)
- Cryptoclearance is 5-59 (8%, $0.96 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2008 (two juvenile debut winners)
- dam has four runners, three winners, four juvenile runners, three juvenile winners, one juvenile debut winner
- dam a half-sister to juvenile stakes-winning router Ava Singstheblues (14-2-1-1, $41,713, 2-6 at two, 0-2 in main track sprints, 0-1 in mud/slop)
- dam a half-sister to stakes-winning sprinter Time for Romance (12-3-4-1, $92,250, unraced at two, 3-11 in main track sprints, unraced in mud/slop)
- trainer is 27-237 (11%, $1.08 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 8-71 (11%, $0.90 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners at Saratoga
- trainer was 15-113 (13%, $1.23 ROI) with all debut runners in 2007 (fourteen with Lasix, two with blinkers, seven with Kent Desormeaux aboard, ten juvenile debut winners, six at Saratoga)
- May 14, June 27, July 23 workouts match barn's entrymate Prince of Wealth
- May 28, June 3 workouts matches barn's juvenile Pious David (finished third in career debut at Saratoga on July 25)
- May 28 workout matches barn's juvenile Charlie Trumper (finished fifth in career debut at Saratoga on July 25)
- June 3 workout went .04 slower than Charlie Trumper
- June 3 workout went .04 slower than Prince of Wealth

2. Sean Avery (Cherokee Run - Latin Lynx, by Forest Wildcat)
Trainer: Allen Iwinski
- Foaled March 8, 2006 in Kentucky
- $30,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2007)
- sire was a Grade 1 sprint winner (28-13-5-5, $1,531,818, 5-7 at two, won debut, 10-17 in main track sprints, 4-6 in mud/slop)
- sire is 27-293 (9%) with juvenile debut runners
- sire is 2-33 (6%, $0.73 ROI) with all debut runners in 2008 (both juvenile debut winners)
- dam was a juvenile winner on turf in England (7-1-0-1, $18,082, 1-3 at two, debut winner, 0-1 in main track sprints, 0-1 in mud/slop, cost $240,000 as a yearling)
- Forest Wildcat is 3-27 (11%, $1.97 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2008 (one juvenile debut winner)
- dam has one runner, no winners, one juvenile runner
- second dam is juvenile stakes-winning sprinter Senita Lane (16-2-4-3, $54,730, 2-5 at two, 2-13 in main track sprints, 0-2 in mud/slop)
- trainer is 4-29 (14%, $0.93 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 0-5 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners at Saratoga
- April 20 workout matches barn's juvenile Smokin Hero (finished second in career debut at Belmont on June 15 with 70 Beyer)
- May 9 workout went .02 faster than Smokin Hero
- May 28 workout went .02 slower than barn's three-year-old Pa Pa Ed (finished third in 'n1x' allowance at Belmont on June 14 with 70 Beyer)
- July 9 workout went .02 slower than barn's four-year-old Vaunt (74 dirt Beyer, 94 on turf)

3. Munnings (Speightstown - La Comete, by Holy Bull)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
- Foaled March 20, 2006 in Kentucky
- $150,000 RNA weanling (Fasig-Tipton Fall November 2006)
- $150,000 yearling (Fasig-Tipton Select August 2007)
- out yearling (Keeneland September 2007)
- $1,700,000 juvenile (Fasig-Tipton February 2008)
- first-crop sire was a Grade 1 sprint winner (16-10-2-2, $1,258,256, 0-1 at two, 10-15 in main track sprints, 2-3 in mud/slop)
- sire is 2-8 (25%, $1.62 ROI) with juvenile debut runners in 2008
- dam was unraced
- Holy Bull is 1-26 (4%, $0.19 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2008 (juvenile debut winner)
- dam has two runners, one winner, one juvenile runner, no juvenile winners
- dam a half-sister to Grade 2 winner Lasting Approval (16-6-5-1, $510,266, 1-3 at two, 0-1 in main track sprints, unraced in mud/slop)
- dam a half-sister to stakes-placed turf runner Warrior Song (11-4-2-0, $167,413, 0-1 at two, 0-1 in main track sprints, 0-1 in wet/slop)
- dam a half-sister to stakes-placed (Japan) Taiki Zillion (35-6-2-2, 1-2 at two)
- trainer is 96-446 (22%, $1.56 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 21-104 (20%, $1.42 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners at Saratoga
- trainer is 14-75 (19%, $1.52 ROI) with all debut runners in 2008 (all with Lasix, one with blinkers, seven juvenile debut winners, eleven ridden by John Velazquez, three for this owner)
- worked one furlong in 10.00 prior to the February sale
- June 16 workout went .01 slower than barn's three-year-old filly Charming (finished tenth in Serena's Song Stakes at Monmouth on July 13 with 0 Beyer)
- June 22 workout went .02 faster than barn's juvenile filly Pride (finished fourth in Astoria Staks at Belmont on June 29 with 52 Beyer)
- June 29 workout went .01 faster than Charming
- July 6 workout went .02 faster than barn's four-year-old Hesogoodwithmoney (finished first in $20,000 starter handicap at Belmont on July 13 with 101 Beyer)

4. Great Crusade (Awesome Again - Victory U. S. A., by Victory Gallop
Trainer: D Wayne Lukas
- Foaled April 1, 2006 in Kentucky
- $750,000 yearling (Fasig-Tipton Select August 2007)
- sire was a multiple Grade 1 winner (12-9-0-2, $4,374,590, unraced at two, 0-1 in main track sprints, 2-2 in mud/slop)
- sire is 11-141 (8%) with juvenile debut runners
- sire is 2-19 (11%, $1.97 ROI) with all debut runners in 2008 (one juvenile debut winner)
- dam was a Grade 2 sprint winner (12-3-2-3, $615,829, 2-6 at two, won debut, 3-5 in main track sprints, 0-1 in mud/slop, cost $525,000 as a juvenile)
- Victory Gallop was 1-3 (33%, $6.73 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2007 (juvenile debut winner)
- this is dam's first runner
- trainer is 10-182 (5%, $0.76 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 0-43 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners at Saratoga
- trainer was 1-39 (3%, $0.47 ROI) with all debut runners in 2007 (juvenile debut winner with Lasix and blinkers for this owner)
- May 5 workout matches barn's juvenile filly Danceyoursocksoff (finished seventh in career debut at Churchill Downs on July 6 with 51 Beyer)
- May 13 workout matches barn's juvenile Buzzin and Dreamin (finished eighth in career debut at Churchill on June 25 with 37 Beyer)
- May 21, June 17 workouts match barn's juvenile Maloof Magic (finished tenth with 30 Beyer in career debut at Churchill on July 2 with 30 Beyer)
- July 7 workout matches barn's three-year-old filly Tazarine (84 main track Beyer, 89 on turf)
- July 17 workout matches barn's juvenile Flying Private (finished fifth in July 23 maiden special at Saratoga with 44 Beyer)

5. Pointing Home (Point Given - Palace Story, by Palace Music)
Trainer: Charles Dickey
- Foaled June 6, 2006 in Kentucky
- half-brother to juvenile stakes-winner Boot Scootin Daddy (52-7-5-5, $118,070, 2-7 at two, 2-17 in main track sprints, 2-10 in mud/slop)
- half-brother to juvenile stakes-placed Boxcar Express (54-6-8-3, $68,975, 1-6 at two, 5-44 in main track sprints, 0-3 in mud/slop)
- $50,000 yearling (OBS Select August 2007)
- sire was a multiple Grade 1 winner (13-9-3-0, $3,968,500, 3-6 at two, 1-2 in main track sprints, 1-1 in mud/slop)
- sire is 22-180 (12%) with juvenile runners
- dam was placed (22-0-3-4, $4,786, 0-6 at two, 0-16 in main track sprints, 0-6 in mud/slop, cost $5,500 as a yearling)
- dam has eight runners, six winners, six juvenile runners, three juvenile winners
- second dam is juvenile stakes-winning turf runner Exclusive Story (9-2-0-1, $50,481, 2-5 at two, 0-2 in main track sprints, unraced in mud/slop)
- trainer is 1-8 (13%, $2.60 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles returning from 31-60 day layoffs

6. Just a Coincidence (Forestry - Scads, by Forty Niner)
Trainer: Nicholas Zito
- Foaled April 26, 2006 in Kentucky
- half-brother to Grade 3-placed turf runner Plenty (12-4-4-1, $189,625, unraced at two, 0-2 in main track sprints, unraced in mud/slop)
- $200,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2007)
- $500,000 RNA juvenile (Fasig-Tipton February 2008)
- out juvenile (Keeneland April 2008)
- sire was a Grade 1 sprint winner (11-7-1-2, $591,225, unraced at two, 4-7 in main track sprints, 0-1 in mud/slop)
- sire is 20-138 (14%) with juvenile debut runners
- sire is 3-35 (9%, $0.77 ROI) with all debut runners in 2008 (one juvenile debut winner, one older winner out of a Forty Niner mare)
- Forestry - Forty Niner 'nick' is stakes-winning sprinter Fall Fashion (15-3-2-3, $106,995, 1-3 at two, 2-9 in main track sprints, 1-4 in mud/slop)
- dam was a winner (11-4-1-4, $129,790, unraced at two, 2-2 in main track sprints, 0-1 in mud/slop)
- Forty Niner is 2-22 (9%, $1.01 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2008 (one juvenile debut winner)
- dam has six runners, four winners, four juvenile runners, two juvenile winners, one juvenile debut winner
- dam a half-sister to multiple Grade 2 winner Conserve (42-10-9-6, $628,132, 1-5 at two, 0-4 in main track sprints, 0-1 in mud/slop)
- trainer is 24-176 (14%, $1.93 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 14-73 (19%, $2.68 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners at Saratoga
- trainer is 1-12 (8%, $0.50 ROI) with all debut runners in 2008 (older debut winner with Lasix)
- worked on furlong in 10.3 prior to the February sale
- June 25 workout matches barn's juvenile Brave Victory (finished second in career debut at Saratoga on July 23 with 75 Beyer)

7. New Providence (Runaway Groom - Dixieland Fantasy, by Dixieland Band)
Trainer: George Arnold II
- Foaled February 7, 2006 in Florida
- half-brother to juvenile stakes-winning sprinter Dixie High (6-2-0-2, $125,945, 2-5 at two, 2-4 in main track sprints, unraced in mud/slop)
- half-brother to multiple stakes-winning sprinter Dixie Dreamer (23-5-4-1, $311,252, 2-5 at two, won debut, 5-19 in main track sprints, 0-2 in mud/slop)
- sire was a Grade 1 route winner (18-6-5-1, $347,537, unraced at two, 2-4 in main track sprints, 1-1 in mud/slop)
- sire is 50-484 (10%) with juvenile debut runners
- sire is 2-17 (12%, $2.05 ROI) with all debut runners in 2008 (one juvenile debut winner)
- dam was unraced (cost $130,000 as a yearling)
- Dixieland Band is 8-69 (12%, $1.49 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2008 (three juvenile debut runners)
- dam has five runners, five winners, three juvenile runners, two juvenile winners, one juvenile debut winner
- trainer is 12-76 (16%, $2.44 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 1-21 (5%, $1.11 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners at Saratoga
- trainer is 1-16 (6%, $0.28 ROI) with all debut runners in 2008 (older debut runner with Lasix)

8. Masked Man (Mineshaft - Catcher, by Storm Cat)
Trainer: Dallas Stewart
- Foaled February 12, 2006 in Kentucky
- half-brother to stakes-placed Cobblestone Road (13-2-1-4, $70,736, 0-7 at two, 0-6 in main track sprints, 1-1 in mud/slop)
- sire was a multiple Grade 1 route winner (18-10-3-1, $2,283,402, unraced at two, unraced in main track sprints, 1-1 in mud/slop)
- sire is 13-69 (19%) with juvenile runners
- dam was a multiple stakes-placed sprinter (14-2-5-0, $78,071, 1-6 at two, 2-13 in main track sprints, 1-2 in mud/slop)
- dam has five runners, three winners, three juvenile runners, no juvenile winners
- dam a full sister to multiple Grade 1 winner Cat Thief (30-4-9-8, $3,951,012, 2-7 at two, 1-7 in main track sprints, 0-2 in mud/slop)
- trainer is 18-94 (19%, $2.20 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juvenile starters
- trainer is 3-14 (21%, $3.11 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juvenile starters at Saratoga

Analysis:
Rusty Arnold sent out some live juvenile debuters last year at Saratoga including Morakami (finished first at 10-1), Veiled Prophet (third at 7-1), and Banner Day (second at 13-1). He sends out a well-bred newcomer named NEW PROVIDENCE on Whitney Day following a string of morning workouts over the Keeneland Polytrack.
JUST A COINCIDENCE's workout on June 25 matches up with Nick Zito's Brave Victory, the game runner-up finisher of the Opening Day maiden. Just a Coincidence was bought back for a half-million bucks earlier this year. Expect a good showing from this son of Forestry.
SEAN AVERY looms an intriguing longshot. He shows some solid workouts, and is bred for speed on both sides of the pedigree.
SUCCESSFUL MISSION is by an excellent debut sire, and the Mott-Desormeaux team did very well with juvenile firsters here last meet. Entrymate PRINCE OF WEALTH may want more distance as a son of Belmont Stakes winner Empire Maker. MASKED MAN is also bred to go long. He's a son of Mineshaft out of a full sister to Breeders' Cup Classic winner Cat Thief. The chestnut should improve off his debut effort at Churchill for a barn that does well with second-time starters. POINTING HOME exits a Churchill race that produced at least three next-out winners. GREAT CRUSADE cost $750,000 as a yearling, but Lukas doesn't have great stats with firsters, and the workouts only give out mixed signals. MUNNINGS cost $1,700,000 earlier this year, and debuts for the always-dangerous team of Todd Pletcher and John Velazquez. He wouldn't be a surprise, but likely will take a lot of money.

Selections:
1. New Providence
2. Just a Coincidence
3. Sean Avery

The play:
New Providence to Win and Place at 4-1 odds or more

Meet record based on starts, wins, top pick (after scratches) in the money, and profit/loss of that day's play ($2 wager):
8-1-6 (- $3.80)