07/24/2007 11:00PM

Spa Babies for 7/26

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Welcome to Spa Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile maiden contest at the meet, and hopefully will end up with a tidy profit.

Yesterday’s results:
Race 2: Immortal Eyes scratched, second pick Bold Trust finished second.
Race 8: Subtle Aly finished first (paid $10.20 to win)

Thursday, July 26, 2007
Race 2
5 1/2 Furlongs
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-old fillies
Purse $62,000

1. Buona Sera (Not For Love – Wewarrenju, by Damascus)
Trainer: Thomas Bush
Foaled May 18, 2005 in Maryland…$50,000 yearling (Fasig-Tipton October 2006), $95,000 RNA juvenile (Fasig-Tipton March 2007)…half-brother to multiple turf stakes-winner Vice On Ice (26-7-4-1, $193,430, 1-3 at two, all wins on grass)…sire was stakes-placed (29-6-7-5, $178,870, 1-4 at two, 3-14 in dirt sprints)…sire is 25-172 (15%) with juvenile debut runners (has five older debut winners this year)…dam was unplaced (3-0-0-0, $0, unraced at two, 0-2 in dirt sprints)…dam has nine foals of racing age, eight runners, seven winners, five juvenile runners, two juvenile winners, one juvenile debut winner…dam a half-sister to Grade 2-placed juvenile sprinter Roy (17-3-2-3, $91,567, 1-4 at two, 2-10 in dirt sprints), stakes-winner Adira (20-10-3-2, $246,802, 1-2 at two, 1-3 in dirt sprints), and multiple Group 3-placed turfer Ivor Jewel (in France)…trainer is 6-47 (13%, $2.68 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners (2-10, 20%, $6.24 ROI at Saratoga)…trainer has three older debut winners this year (all with Lasix, one with front bandages)…worked 1 furlong in 10.60 prior to the February sale.

2. Cozy Mesa (Sky Mesa – Cozy Island, by Cozzene)
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Foaled February 3, 2005 in Kentucky…first-crop sire was a Grade 1 sprint winner at two (6-3-1-1, $633,076, 3-3 at two, 2-2 in dirt sprints)…sire is 2-13 (15%) with juveniles…dam was Grade 2-placed (15-3-6-2, $160,444, unraced at two, unraced in dirt sprints)…this is dam’s first foal…second dam a half-sister to multiple Grade/Group 3-placed turfer Hawk Spell…trainer is 18-173 (10%, $0.82 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles (4-38, 11%, $0.77 ROI with second-time juveniles at Saratoga).

3. Twisted Tale (Tale of the Cat – Call Now, by Wild Again)
Trainer: Steven Asmussen
Foaled April 19, 2005 in Kentucky…withdrawn yearling (Keeneland September 2006)…sire was a Grade 2 sprint winner (9-5-1-2, $360,900, unraced at two, 1-3 in dirt sprints)…sire is 124-638 (19%) with juveniles…sire-broodmare sire ‘nick’ produced sprint stakes-winner Wild Tale (30-7-5-4, $333,030, 1-2 at two)…dam was a Grade 2 winner at two (15-5-3-2, $368,765, 3-5 at two, 3-9 in dirt sprints)…dam has four foals of racing age, three runners, one winner, one juvenile runner, no juvenile winners…dam a half-sister to Grade 3-placed sprinter Carol’s Wonder (19-3-8-2, $117,160, 0-2 at two, 3-18 in dirt sprints), Grade 1 winner Olympio (17-9-4-0, $1,456,315, 2-4 at two, 4-5 in dirt sprints), and a full sister to stakes-winning sprinter Your Call (12-3-5-0, $99,940, 1-4 at two, all races sprinting)…trainer is 127-461 (28%, $1.85 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles (6-15, 40%, $1.52 ROI with second-time juveniles at Saratoga).

4. Magnificent Truth (Stormy Atlantic – True Life, by El Gran Senor)
Trainer: Mark Hennig
Foaled February 18, 2005 in Kentucky…$6,200 yearling (Fasig-Tipton October 2006)…sire was a multiple stakes-winning sprinter (15-6-2-1, $148,126, 0-1 at two, all races sprinting)…sire is 28-224 (13%) with juvenile debut runners (has nine debut winners this year, two juveniles)…dam was placed (11-0-2-1, $2,622, 0-2 at two in Ireland, all races on grass, sold for $100,000 as a weanling, and for $92,000 as a yearling)…dam has two foals of racing age, one starter, no winners, no juvenile runners…second dam is a full sister to Grade 2 winner Image of Reality (26-8-3-4, $211,290, dam of Grade 1 turf winner Toussaud, granddam of Grade 1 turf winner Chester House, Grade 1 winner Honest Lady, Grade 2 turf winner Decarchy, Grade 1 turf winner Chiselling, and multiple Grade 1 winner Empire Maker)…trainer is 11-130 (8%, $2.11 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile firsters (4-33, 12%, $4.22 ROI at Saratoga)…trainer has one juvenile debut winner this year (Lasix on)…April 28, June 8, June 15, June 22 workouts match up with barn’s juvenile filly Bratigo (finished fourth in career debut on July 2 at Philadelphia with 45 Beyer)…May 10, May 18, May 25, June 1 workouts match up with barn’s juvenile filly Southern Alibi (finished sixth in career debut on June 29 at Belmont with 32 Beyer).

5. Ellie’s Buddha (Buddha – Ellie’s Mambo, by Kingmambo)
Trainer: Patrick Biancone
Foaled March 30, 2005 in Kentucky…$47,000 RNA weanling (Keeneland November 2005)…sire was a Grade 1 route winner (4-3-0-0, $489,600, 0-1 at two, 1-2 in dirt sprints)…sire is 3-49 (6%) with juvenile debut runners (has five debut winners this year, two juveniles)…dam was unraced (cost $250,000 as a yearling)…dam has two foals of racing age, one runner, no winners, one juvenile runner…dam a half to Group 3-placed runner Kelly’s Olympics (South Africa)…trainer is 17-72 (24%, $1.80 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners (6-26, 23%, $1.70 ROI at Saratoga)…trainer has two older debut winners this year (both with Lasix and Leparoux).

6. Alachua (Grand Slam – Wildcat Victory, by Forest Wildcat)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Foaled May 9, 2005 in Kentucky…$60,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2006), $335,000 juvenile (OBS February 2007, *fifth-highest priced of sale)…sire was a multiple Grade 1 winner at two (15-4-5-2, $971,292, 3-5 at two, won debut, 1-4 in dirt sprints)…sire is 30-224 (13%) with juvenile firsters (has three older debut winners this year)…dam was a winner (6-2-0-0, $47,412, unraced at two, 2-5 in dirt sprints)…dam has two foals of racing age, one runner, one winner, no juvenile runners…dam a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Secret Liaison (14-7-2-0, $342,719, unraced at two, 6-13 in dirt sprints)…trainer is 89-386 (23%, $1.66 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners (22-98, 22%, $1.54 ROI at Saratoga)…trainer has 15 debut winners this year (all with Lasix, eight with John Velazquez, 10 juveniles)…worked 1 furlong in 10.40 prior to the February sale.

7. Forest Trail (Forest Wildcat – Manoa, by Seeking the Gold)
Trainer: Claude McGaughey III
Foaled March 18, 2005 in Kentucky…half-sister to Grade 1-placed Carriage Trail (7-3-0-2, $139,831, 1-1 at two, 2-3 in dirt sprints)…sire was a multiple Grade 3 sprint winner (20-9-2-1, $478,862, 2-5 at two, all races sprinting)…sire is 35-245 (14%) with juvenile debut runners (has four debut winners this year, two juveniles over synthetic surfaces)…dam was multiple Grade 3-placed (25-4-7-5, $262,952, unraced at two, 0-5 in dirt sprints)…dam has four foals of racing age, three runners, one winner, one juvenile runner, one juvenile winner, one juvenile debut winner…trainer is 7-65 (11%, $1.47 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners (4-27, 15%, $2.47 ROI at Saratoga).

Analysis:
COZY MESA rallied belately over a speed-favoring Churchill Downs surface (six of eight main track winners were within a length of the leader at the pace call) when a runner-up in the faster division of juvenile filly maiden special weights on July 1. She galloped out nicely after the fact, and gets another furlong to work with here. It just wouldn’t be Saratoga without at least one Marylou Whitney-owned runner in the winner’s circle.
TWISTED TALE showed good speed in her career debut, but couldn’t keep up with then-stablemate Subtle Aly (returned to win the Schuylerville here yesterday for Richard Dutrow Jr.) in the lane. She should be prominent from the opening bell for dangerous connections. FOREST TRAIL has a classy pedigree, and figures to be racing in the clear after breaking from far outside post position. MAGNIFICENT TRUTH has an underrated pedigree, but the bargain yearling purchase catches a tough field.
ALACHUA debuts for the always-dangerous Pletcher barn, and is bred for speed on both sides of the pedigree.

Selections:
1. Cozy Mesa
2. Twisted Tale
3. Forest Trail

The play: Cozy Mesa to win at 2-1 odds or more.

Race 8
Sanford Stakes (Grade 2)
2-year-olds
Purse $150,000

Analysis:
READY’S IMAGE had the look of one of Todd Pletcher’s top juveniles when tearing up the Keeneland polytrack in the workouts leading up to his debut. He didn’t disappoint at first asking in Lexington, and after failing to overcome the slop in the Kentucky Breeders’ Cup, he exploded with the addition of blinkers to win the Tremont. He doesn’t need the lead to win, and may sit a fine tracking trip while racing in the clear.
FED WATCHER earned a huge Beyer Speed Figure in his career debut, and he figures to be on the engine once again on Thursday. This is a tougher spot, however, and the pace will likely be hotter than the one he set at Belmont. TALE OF EKATI overcame pace pressure to run away with his debut at Belmont as a universal good thing at even money, but may be under the gun from his inside post position.
SOK SOK rallied from off the pace to graduate at Churchill Downs, and that experience should help him in this speed-filled field.

Selections:
1. Ready’s Image
2. Fed Watcher
3. Tale of Ekati

The play: Ready’s Image to win at 9-5 odds or more.

Meet record based on starts, wins, top pick (after scratches) in the money, and profit/loss of that day's play: 2-1-2 (+$8.20)