09/05/2011 8:13AM

Saratoga: Spa Babies for Sept. 5, Race 6

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Welcome to Spa Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile contest at the meet and hope for a tidy profit.

In past years, I would list the stats for each horse before writing up my analysis, selections and wagering strategy. In order to streamline the content, this year's Spa Babies will showcase written analyses of each juvenile race. Each analysis will include relevant statistical information. Following the analysis, top three selections and wagering strategy will be provided.

Race 6
5 1/2 Furlongs (Turf)
Maiden Special Weight (New York Breds)
2-year-olds
Purse $40,000

Analysis:
5. T. J.'S BODYLAN (Freud - I'm So Classy, by Dixie Brass, March 23, 2009, $5,000 Fasig-Tipton Select October yearling, $25,000 OBS Spring April juvenile) worked 2 furlongs in 21.1 prior to the April auction).  He is by a Group 2-placed turfer (1-12, 44K, 0-3 at two, 1-12 on turf) that is 20-149 (13%) with juvenile debut runners (1-21, 5%, $1.11 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 older winner on turf) and 27-161 (17%) with first-turf runners. The dam was unraced and has foaled 0 winners from 1 runner (0-0 with 2yos, 0-1 with turfers).  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed Fountain'sprincess (1-15, 75K, 0-2 on turf). Trainer Linda Rice is 4-12 (33%, $2.39 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in statebred maiden special weight turf sprints (3-7, 43%, $2.89 ROI at Saratoga). Rice is 3-43 (6%, $0.79 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

7. LITTLE DALE (Yankee Gentleman - Our Mimi, by Our Emblem, April 29, 2009, $3,000 Fasig-Tipton October yearling, $24,000 RNA OBS Spring April juvenile, Withdrawn OBS Open June juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.1 prior to the April auction.  He is by a stakes-winner (4-10, 202K, 0-1 on turf) that is 65-395 (16%) with juvenile runners and 36-257 (14%) with turf runners.  The dam was a winner (3-22, 98K, 0-1 at two, 1-4 on turf) and has foaled 1 winner from 2 runners (0-2 with juveniles, 0-1 with turfers).  The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed Iztla (9-44, 152K, 1-2 at two, 0-5 on turf).  Trainer Dale Romans is 0-1 over the past five years with juveniles returning from 31-60 day layoffs in statebred maiden special weight turf sprints. Showed good speed in turf debut, but drifted out very badly in the stretch.  That cost him the win and he hasn't shown a great amount of stamina in his short career.

11. ADRIATIC SPIRIT (Wild Desert - Dinah's Pearls, by Dynaformer, March 11, 2009) is by a stakes-winning router (3-20, 1.0M, 2-8 at two, 1-4 on turf) that is 1-16 (6%) with juveniles and 0-2 with turf runners from his first crop of 2011.  The dam, a $25,000 juvenile, was a turf winner (1-23, 87K, 0-2 at two, 1-22 on turf) and has foaled 2 winners from 3 runners (0-3 with juveniles, 0-3 with turfers).  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winner Cat Shaker (4-54, 190K, 1-5 at two, 1-21 on turf). Trainer David Donk is 0-3 over the past five years with second-time juveniles in statebred maiden special weight turf sprints (0-1 at Saratoga). Enjoyed a decent trip in career debut, but still finished behind a drifting Little Dale.  Capable of normal second-out improvement.

12. SLEEPY FREUD (Freud - Pierian Spring, by Signal Tap, January 12, 2009) is by a Group 2-placed turfer (1-12, 44K, 0-3 at two, 1-12 on turf) that is 20-149 (13%) with juvenile debut runners (1-21, 5%, $1.11 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 older winner on turf) and 27-161 (17%) with first-turf runners. The dam was a sprint winner (1-8, 38K, 1-2 at two, won debut, 0-3 on turf) and has foaled 1 winner from 2 runners (0-2 with 2yos, 0-0 with turfers). This is the family of multiple Group 1 winner (Argentina) Forlano. Trainer Linda Rice is 4-12 (33%, $2.39 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in statebred maiden special weight turf sprints (3-7, 43%, $2.89 ROI at Saratoga). Rice is 3-43 (6%, $0.79 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

4. MY PAL OF PALS (City Zip - U R Theweakestlink, by Mountain Cat, February 28, 2009, $19,000 RNA OBS Winter January short yearling, $40,000 Fasig-Tipton Preferred August yearling) is by a juvenile Grade 1 sprint winner (9-23, 818K, 5-11 at two, 0-2 on turf) that is 40-218 (18%) with juvenile debut runners (8-41, 20%, $2.85 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 5 juvenile debut winners, 2 at this meet, 1 on turf) and 31-202 (15%) with first-turf runners.  The dam, a $35,000 yearling and $13,000 juvenile, was unplaced (0-1) and has foaled 3 winners from 3 runners (0-3 with 2yos, 1-3 with turfers). The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Mellow Roll (7-24, 555K, 5-7 at two, won debut). Trainer Gary Sciacca is 0-1 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in statebred maiden special weight turf sprints.  Sciacca is 2-45 (4%, $1.49 ROI) with all debut runners since January 1, 2007.

6. MIA POPPY (Forest Wildcat - Fiddlers Song, by Songandaprayer, April 18, 2009, $20,000 RNA Fasig-Tipton Select October yearling) is by a multiple Grade 3 sprint winner (9-20, 478K, 2-5 at two) that is 48-390 (12%) with juvenile debut runners (3-31, 10%, $0.51 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 3 juvenile debut winners) and 40-355 (11%) with first-turf runners. The dam, a $35,000 juvenile, was unplaced (0-3, 1K) and has foaled 0 winners from 1 runner (0-0 with 2yos, 0-0 with turfers). This is the family of Grade 3 winner Alabama Nana (11-32, 427K, 1-2 at two, 0-2 on turf). Trainer Dominick Schettino is 0-2 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in statebred maiden special weight turf sprints.  Schettino is 10-84 (11%, $2.01 ROI) with all debut runners since January 1, 2008.

1. WESTERN TRYST (Western Expression - Pride of Trieste, by Old Trieste, March 22, 2009) is by a Grade 1-placed sprinter (3-16, 140K, 0-1 on turf) that is 28-304 (9%) with juveniles and 62-618 (10%) with turfers. The dam, a $75,000 weanling and $55,000 juvenile, was a sprint winner (1-12, 12K) and has foaled 0 winners from 2 runners (0-2 with juveniles, 0-1 with turfers).  This is the family of Grade 3 winner Unknown Heiress (5-27, 73K, 1-12 at two).  Trainer Phil Serpe is 0-31 over the past five years with juveniles on turf (0-11 at Saratoga). Showed speed before packing it in going two turns.  Seems well-placed in this turf sprint.

10. FREUDIAN THERAPIST (Freud - Jazzy Discovery, by Regal Discovery, May 2, 2009) is by a Group 2-placed turfer (1-12, 44K, 0-3 at two, 1-12 on turf) that is 74-475 (16%) with juvenile runners and 128-947 (14%) with turf runners. The dam was unplaced (0-1) and has foaled 1 winner from 4 runners (0-3 with juveniles, 0-2 with turfers).  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winning turfer Ma Femme (4-26, 170K, 4-23 on turf).  Trainer John Campo Jr. is 0-1 over the past five years with juveniles returning from 31-60 day layoffs in statebred maiden special weight turf sprints (0-1 at Saratoga). Still a bit green, he'll have to improve here.
1a. MANERO (Disco Rico - Gracefully Done, by Deputy Commander, March 13, 2009) is by a multiple Grade 3 sprint winner (9-17, 532K, 2-3 at two) that is 7-61 (11%) with juvenile debut runners (1-13, 8%, $0.768 ROI with all debut runners in 2011) and 6-73 (8%) with first-turf runners. The dam, a $20,000 yearling, was unplaced (0-6, 4K, 0-5 on turf) and has foaled 1 winner from 2 runners (1-1 with 2yos, debut winner, 0-2 with turfers). The third dam is Grade 1 winner Dawn's Curtsey (5-28, 364K, 1-2 at two, 4-21 on turf). Trainer Phil Serpe is 0-5 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in statebred maiden special weight turf sprints (0-3 at Saratoga). Serpe is 3-59 (5%, $2.11 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

8. IMAGE OF DISCO (Disco Rico - Momma's Image, by Marquetry, February 11, 2009) is by a Grade 3 sprint winner (9-17, 532K, 2-3 at two) that is 25-185 (14%) with juveniles and 6-73 (8%) with first-turfers. The dam was a first-turf winner (1-16, 33K, 0-1 at two, 1-10 on turf) and has foaled 1 winner from 2 runners (1-2 with juveniles, 0-0 with turfers). The dam is a full sister to stakes-winning sprinter To Marquet (5-20, 198K, 1-4 at two, 0-5 on turf).  The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winning sprinter Pretty Imposing (7-27, 276K, 0-1 at two, 0-4 on turf).  Trainer James Ryerson is 0-1 over the past five years with second-time juveniles going dirt to turf in statebred maiden special weight sprints.  Didn't do much in maiden claimer on dirt, but was saddled with a tough outside post.

2. COROFIN (Flashy Bull - Shesadreamcatcher, by Yonaguska, April 17, 2009, $3,200 OBS Winter January short yearling, Withdrawn Fasig-Tipton October yearling) is by a Grade 1 route winner (5-19, 844K, 1-6 at two) that is 4-26 (15%, $1.47 ROI) with juvenile debut runners and 0-2 with first-turfers from his first crop of 2011. The dam, a $28,000 weanling, was a sprint winner (2-11, 34K, 2-9 at two) and has foaled 1 winner from 1 runner (1-1 with 2yos, 0-0 with turfers). The dam is a half-sister to multiple Grade 2-placed Sultry Substitute (4-27, 267K, 0-2 at two, 3-10 on turf). Trainer Keith O'Brien is 0-1 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in turf sprints. O'Brien is 1-45 (2%, $0.88 ROI) with all debut runners since January 1, 2004.

3. CHARLIE'S PUNCH (Silver Wagon - Uno Dos, by Two Punch, April 12, 2009, $9,000 Fasig-Tipton Preferred August yearling) is by a multiple Grade 1 sprint winner (7-25, 1.1M, 2-4 at two) that is 0-3 with juvenile debut runners and 0-1 with first-turfers from his first crop of runners in 2011. The dam, a $25,000 yearling, was a sprint winner (6-30, 79K, 0-1 on turf) and has foaled 5 winners from 6 runners (2-3 with 2yos, 1 debut winner, 0-1 with turfers).  Charlie's Punch is a half-brother to juvenile stakes-placed sprinter Treetop's Glory (2-19, 29K, 1-5 at two) and stakes-placed Willy's Wicked Way (11-49, 192K). The dam is a half-sister to Grade 3 winner Rugged Bugger (14-42, 380K, 6-17 on turf). Trainer Joe Aquilino is 0-1 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in statebred maiden special weight turf sprints.  Aquilino is 4-120 (3%, $0.77 ROI) with all debut runners since January 1, 2002.

9. HOPE STILL SPRINGS (Corinthian - Restored Hope, by He's Bad, May 7, 2009, $110,000 Fasig-Tipton Select August yearling) is by a Grade 1 route winner (6-12, 1.2M, 1-2 at two) that is 1-27 (4%, $0.11 ROI) with juvenile debut runners (1 at this meet) and 0-4 with first-turfers from his first crop of runners in 2011. The dam was a multiple Grade 3 winner (7-16, 286K) and has foaled 6 winners from 8 runners (0-2 with 2yos, 2-6 with turfers, 1 first-turf winner).  Hope Still Springs is a half-brother to Grade 3 turf winner Sabellina (7-38, 531K, 7-33 on turf, first-turf winner). This is the family of stakes-placed Gnarley (5-76, 59K, 1-6 at two, won debut, 0-5 on turf). The July 8, August 5, August 18 workouts match trainer Bruce Brown's 3-year-old filly The Point Is (finished eleventh in maiden special weight on turf on July 23 with 15 Beyer, fell in maiden special weight on turf on August 24). The July 15 workout matches Brown's 4-year-old filly Ready for Autumn (finished sixth in maiden special weight on turf on August 6 with 53 Beyer). Brown is 0-1 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in statebred maiden special weight turf sprints. Brown is 2-13 (15%, $1.52 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

13. TUG OF WAR (Smarty Jones - Lake Champlain, by War Chant, May 5, 2009, $6,000 RNA Keeneland November weanling 2009; Withdrawn OBS Spring April juvenile) is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (8-9, $7.6M, 2-2 at two, 2-2 sprinting) that is 28-165 (17%) with juveniles. The dam, a $200,000 yearling, was placed sprinting at two (0-9, 10K, 0-3 at two, 0-2 sprinting) and has foaled 2 winners from 3 runners (0-3 with juveniles, 2-3 with sprinters). Tug of War is a half-brother to stakes-placed Icelain Dan (1-7, 28K, 0-2 at two, 1-5 sprinting). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed juvenile sprinter Skipping Stars (0-8, 0-3 at two, 0-6 sprinting) and Grade 1 sprint winner Forest Danger (5-8, 423K, 5-6 sprinting).  Trainer Ramon Hernandez is 2-58 (3%, $0.55 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles in statebred maiden special weight dirt sprints (2-23, 9%, $1.39 ROI at Saratoga). Capable if the race is rained to the main.

Selections:
1. T. J.'s Bodylan
2. Little Dale
3. Adriatic Spirit

The Play:
T. J.'s Bodylan to Win and Place at 4-1 odds or greater.