09/05/2011 7:09AM

Saratoga: Spa Babies for Sept. 5, Race 2

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Welcome to Spa Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile contest at the meet and hope for a tidy profit.

In past years, I would list the stats for each horse before writing up my analysis, selections and wagering strategy. In order to streamline the content, this year's Spa Babies will showcase written analyses of each juvenile race. Each analysis will include relevant statistical information. Following the analysis, top three selections and wagering strategy will be provided.

Sunday's results:
Race 6: Pianist finished second
Race 7: Tapajo finished third
Race 10: Lady Pecan finished eighth

Monday, September 5, 2011
Race 2
5 1/2 Furlongs
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-olds
Purse $50,000

Analysis:
2. LOVE TO RUN (Pulpit - I Love America, by Quiet American, May 6, 2009 in Kentucky, $200,000 RNA Keeneland September yearling, $190,000 OBS Select March juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.2 prior to the March auction.  He is by a multiple Grade 2 route winner (4-6, 728K, 1-1 sprinting) that is 125-799 (16%) with juveniles. The dam, a $200,000 weanling and $220,000 yearling, was a route winner (1-15, 48K, 0-2 sprinting) and this is her first starter.  The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed Apak (9-77, 235K, 2-5 at two, 7-64 sprinting), Group 1-placed turfer Adair (1-3, 86K, 1-1 at two), Grade 3-placed turfer Cyclorama (2-7, 108K, 1-1 at two) and stakes-winning turfer Dynaman (5-20, 128K, 0-2 sprinting). Trainer John Kimmel is 4-21 (19%, $1.59 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles in maiden special weight dirt sprints (2-6, 33%, $2.18 ROI at Saratoga). Gave a sustained wide run in career debut after hopping a bit at the start and can move forward with normal second-out improvement.

7. SEEKER (Hard Spun - Classic Olympio, by Olympio, March 18, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a Grade 1 sprint winner (7-13, 2.6M, 3-3 at two, 4-4 sprinting) that is 6-38 (16%) with juveniles from his first crop of 2011. The dam, a $27,000 weanling, was a multiple stakes-winning sprinter (6-19, 336K, 3-6 at two, 6-15 sprinting) and has foaled 3 winners from 4 runners (1-4 with 2yos, 3-4 with sprinters. Seeker is a half-brother to multiple stakes-winner Classify (9-25, 336K, 0-4 at two, 7-16 sprinting) and stakes-winning sprinter Simplify (4-22, 261K, 1-3 at two, 4-20 sprinting). The dam is a half-sister to juvenile stakes-winning sprinter Mr. Felipe (2-3, 56K, 2-3 at two, 2-3 sprinting) and multiple stakes-placed Dewey's Trick (4-20, 180K, 1-10 sprinting). Trainer Steve Asmussen is 62-186 (33%, $2.40 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles in maiden special weight dirt sprints (8-22, 36%, $3.39 ROI at Saratoga). Pressed the pace over speed-friendly track in career debut.  This barn has awesome numbers with second-out babies and Seeker looms a dangerous pace factor.

5. BILL OF RIGHTS (Tiznow - Sweet Damsel, by Turkoman, April 22, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (8-15, 6.4M, 0-1 sprinting) that is 18-203 (9%) with juvenile debut runners (3-63, 5%, $0.33 ROI with all debut runners in 2011). The dam, a $9,500 yearling and $41,000 juvenile, was a winner (5-33, 66K, 0-3 at two, 0-7 sprinting) and has foaled 6 winners from 6 runners (2-3 with 2yos, 3-6 with sprinters). Bill of Rights is a half-brother to Grade 3-placed Caroline's Gold (4-13, 156K, 1-4 at two, 2-7 sprinting).  Bill of Rights is a full brother to multiple Grade 1 route winner Colonel John (6-15, 1.7M, 2-4 at two, 1-3 sprinting) and Grade 1-placed router Mr. Hot Stuff (3-23, 229K, 0-3 at two, 0-2 sprinting). The second dam is stakes-winner Grande Dame (3-17, 81K, 0-4 sprinting). The July 28 workout went .05 faster than trainer Eoin Harty's juvenile Right to Vote (finished second in career debut on August 13 with 81 Beyer). Harty is 1-31 (3%, $0.37 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (0-15 at Saratoga). Harty is 4-16 (25%, $2.23 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

6. TIZ YANKEE (Tiznow - Petite Chatte, by Storm Cat, March 13, 2009 in Kentucky, $165,000 Keeneland September yearling, Withdrawn Fasig-Tipton February juvenile) is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (8-15, 6.4M, 0-1 sprinting) that is 18-203 (9%) with juvenile debut runners (3-63, 5%, $0.33 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 older debut winner out of a Storm Cat mare). The Tiznow - Storm Cat breeding 'nick' has produced multiple juvenile Grade 1 winner Folklore (4-8, 945K, 4-7 at two, 3-7 sprinting) and Grade 3 route winner American Lion (3-9, 417K, 2-3 at two, 2-4 sprinting). The dam, a $200,000 yearling, was unplaced (0-2, 3K, 0-2 at two, 0-2 sprinting) and has foaled 2 winners from 2 runners (1-1 with 2yos, 2-2 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed router Saintly Persuasion (2-6, 79K, 0-1 sprinting). The August 20 workout matches trainer Nick Zito's juvenile Hard Nosed (finished first in maiden special weight at Suffolk Downs on September 3 with 53 Beyer). Zito is 10-119 (8%, $1.49 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (3-55, 5%, $0.66 ROI at Saratoga). Zito is 1-38 (3%, $0.40 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

4. TRUSTED CHOICE (Langfuhr - Cascade Rose, by Giant's Causeway, January 29, 2009 in Kentucky, $80,000 Keeneland November weanling, $220,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Grade 1 winner (9-23, 698K, 8-12 sprinting) that is 32-363 (9%) with juvenile debut runners (4-55, 7%, $1.10 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 3 juvenile debut winners). The dam, a $325,000 weanling, was a juvenile stakes-placed router (1-11, 32K, 1-4 at two, won debut, 1-6 sprinting) and this is her first starter. The second dam is stakes-winning sprinter Rose Frances (3-14, 83K, 3-13 sprinting). The August 21 workout matches trainer Mark Hennig's 3-year-old Chinglish (finished sixth in the Grade 3 Saranac Stakes on turf on September 4 with a 79 Beyer). The August 27 workout matches Hennig's juvenile filly Baffle Me (finished sixth in the Grade 1 Spinaway Stakes on September 4 with a 52 Beyer). Trainer Mark Hennig is 5-65 (8%, $1.46 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (0-18 at Saratoga). Hennig is 1-15 (6%, $0.91 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

8. LIGHT OF TRUTH (Birdstone - Buckles and Kinks, by Waquoit, January 25, 2009 in Kentucky, $170,000 Keeneland November weanling, $150,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (5-9, 1.5M, 2-3 at two, won debut, 1-2 sprinting) that is 7-63 (11%) with juvenile debut runners (no debut winners this year). The dam was multiple stakes-placed (2-19, 106K, 1-3 at two, won debut, 2-9 sprinting) and has foaled 5 winners from 6 runners (1-3 with 2yos, debut winner, 5-6 with sprinters).  Light of Truth is a half-brother to multiple stakes-winning sprinter Bronze Abe (11-32, 520K, 3-9 at two, won debut, 11-30 sprinting) and multiple stakes-winner Fire Hero (14-65, 323K, 0-3 at two, 2-8 sprinting). The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed My Mafalda (7-24, 103K, 1-2 at two, 4-14 sprinting), multiple stakes-placed Lord Herrman (5-34, 81K, 0-2 at two, 3-19 sprinting), multiple stakes-placed juvenile Eagle Mill (21-82, 218K, 2-5 at two, won debut, 17-66 sprinting) and stakes-placed router Mill Song (3-19, 50K, 0-1 at two, 3-11 sprinting).

The August 27 workout matches trainer Phil Serpe's juvenile The Snickers Kid (finished third in career debut in $35,000 maiden claimer on August 31 with 39 Beyer). Serpe is 1-18 (6%, $4.22 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (1-8, 13%, $9.50 ROI at Saratoga). Serpe is 3-59 (5%, $2.11 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

1. MCKINLEY SQUARE (Street Cry - My Boston Gal, by Boston Harbor, February 13, 2009 in Kentucky, $650,000 Fasig-Tipton Select August 2010, Out Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Grade/Group 1 route winner (5-12, 5.1M, 1-5 at two, 1-3 sprinting) that is 11-102 (11%) with juvenile debut runners (2-18, 11%, $1.11 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 juvenile debut winner at this meet). The dam, a $95,000 yearling, was a multiple Grade 2 winner (5-13, 500K, 3-3 at two, 3-7 sprinting) and has foaled 1 winner from 1 runner (1-1 with 2yos, juvenile debut winner, 0-0 with sprinters).  McKinley Square is a half-brother to French Group 3-placed juvenile turfer Emirates Dream (2-11, 55K, 1-4 at two, won debut). The third dam is Grade 3 winner Cinegita (3-7, 54K, 1-3 at two). Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin is 28-140 (20%, $1.75 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (7-46, 15%, $1.17 ROI at Saratoga). McLaughlin is 5-30, 17%, $1.64 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

3. START THE PARTY (Grand Slam - Evil's Causeway, by Giant's Causeway, April 28, 2009 in Florida, Withdrawn OBS Select August yearling, Withdrawn Keeneland September yearling, $47,000 RNA OBS Select March juvenile, $37,000 RNA Fasig-Tipton Spring May juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.3 prior to the March auction and 2 furlongs in 22.0 prior to the May auction.  He is by a multiple Grade 1 juvenile winner (4-15, 971K, 3-5 at two, won debut, 1-4 sprinting) that is 47-381 (12%) with juvenile debut runners (5-58, 9%, $0.92 ROI with all debut runners, 3 juvenile debut winners). The dam was unraced and has foaled 2 winners from 2 runners (1-2 with 2yos, 1-1 with sprinters).  Start the Party is a half-brother to juvenile stakes-winning sprinter True Way of Grace (1-14, 103K, 1-7 at two, 1-4 sprinting).The dam is a half-sister to juvenile stakes-placed sprinter Echeverria (2-16, 65K, 2-5 at two, 2-12 sprinting) and juvenile Grade 3 sprint winner Evil Minister (2-11, 126K, 2-5 at two, 2-5 sprinting). Trainer Dallas Stewart is 6-64 (9%, $2.07 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (3-18, 17%, $6.17 ROI at Saratoga). Stewart is 1-39 (2%, $1.77 ROI) with all debut runners since January 1, 2010.

9. VILLANDRY (Mr. Greeley - Al Beedaa, by Swain, April 19, 2009 in Kentucky, $50,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Grade 3 sprint winner (5-16, 474K, 2-6 at two, 4-11 sprinting) that is 35-334 (10%) with juvenile debut runners (1-44, 2%, $0.10 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 juvenile debut winner). The dam was unplaced in England (0-6, 3K, 0-2 at two) and has foaled 2 winners from 2 runners (0-2 with 2yos, 1-2 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to Grade 3-placed turfer Hittias (7-34, 134K), French stakes-winning turfer Hispanolia (2-9, 55K, 0-1 at two), Italian Group 2 turf winner Oumaldaaya (3-10, 47K, 1-3 at two) and British Group 1 turf winner Erhaab (4-11, 905K, 2-6 at two).  Trainer Jimmy Jerkens is 9-49 (18%, $2.01 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (2-11, 18%, $2.64 ROI at Saratoga). Jerkens is 1-31 (3%, $0.30 ROI) with all debut runners since January 1, 2010.

Selections:
1. Love to Run
2. Seeker
3. Bill of Rights

The Play:
Love to Run - Seeker Exacta
Love to Run - Bill of Rights Exacta