09/03/2011 9:29PM

Saratoga: Spa Babies for Sept. 4, Race 7

Email

Welcome to Spa Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile contest at the meet and hope for a tidy profit.

In past years, I would list the stats for each horse before writing up my analysis, selections and wagering strategy. In order to streamline the content, this year's Spa Babies will showcase written analyses of each juvenile race. Each analysis will include relevant statistical information. Following the analysis, top three selections and wagering strategy will be provided.

Race 7
7 Furlongs
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-old fillies
Purse $50,000

Analysis:

1. TAPAJO (Tapit - Sleep Away Camp, by Bertrando, May 3, 2009 in Kentucky, $65,000 Keeneland September yearling, Withdrawn OBS Spring April juvenile, $70,000 OBS Open June juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.3 prior to the June auction).  She is by a Grade 1 route winner (3-6, 557K, 2-2 at two) that is 19-156 (12%) with juvenile debut runners (4-46, 9%, $1.24 ROI with all debut runners in 2011). The dam was placed routing (0-7, 5K, 0-5 sprinting) and has foaled 5 winners from 5 runners (2-3 with 2yos, 2 juvenile debut winners, 4-5 with sprinters). Tapajo is a half-sister to juvenile stakes-placed sprinter Spooked (1-16, 50K, 1-7 at two, won debut, 1-16 sprinting). The dam is a half-sister to Grade 3 sprinter Black Jack Road (14-44, 525K, 14-42 sprinting). The July 15, July 22 workouts match trainer Steve Asmussen's juvenile Voodoo Daddy (finished first in career debut on August 17 with 90 Beyer). The August 1 workout went .03 slower than Voodoo Daddy. The August 17 workout matches Asmussen's juvenile filly Barbados Beauty (finished fifth in maiden special weight on August 25 with 51 Beyer). Asmussen is 58-389 (15%) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (8-43, 19% at Saratoga). Asmussen is 11-106 (10%, $1.15 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

4. LISA T. (Awesome Again - Supercharger, by A.P. Indy, March 31, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (9-12, 4.3M, 0-1 sprinting) that is 15-201 (7%) with juvenile debut runners (4-40, 10%, $0.75 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 juvenile debut winner). The dam was a winner (3-8, 91K, 2-6 sprinting) and has foaled 3 winners from 3 runners (2-2 with 2yos, 1 juvenile debut winner, 2-3 with sprinters).  The Awesome Again - A.P. Indy breeding 'nick' has produced Grade 3 route winner Awesome Chic (3-12, 216K, 1-2 at two, 2-7 sprinting). Lisa T. is a half-sister to Grade 1 route winner Super Saver (3-10, 1.8M, 2-4 at two, 0-1 sprinting) and Grade 3 route winner Brethren (3-5, 224K, 2-2 at two, 1-1 sprinting). The dam is a full sister to juvenile Grade 3 winner Accelerator (4-24, 414K, 2-5 at two, 0-4 sprinting), Grade 2 winner Daydreaming (7-16, 696K, 1-3 at two, won debut, 1-2 sprinting) and Grade 1 sprinter Girolamo (5-11, 443K, 1-3 at two, won debut, 3-6 sprinting). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winning router Harborage (2-8, 118K, 0-2 at two, 0-1 sprinting). The July 6, July 14 workouts match trainer Todd Pletcher's juvenile Parachute Coney (finished third in career debut on September 3 with 68).  The July 21 workout went .03 slower than Pletcher's juvenile Dancing Solo (scheduled to debut on grass in Race 6). The July 28 workout went .04 faster than Pletcher's 4-year-old Ibboyee (finished first in the John Morrissey Stakes on August 3 with 96 Beyer). The August 18 workout went .01 slower than Dancing Solo. Pletcher is 61-268 (23%, $1.61 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (20-85, 24%, $1.88 ROI at Saratoga).  Pletcher is 24-100 (24%, $1.64 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

3. CENTRIQUE (Malibu Moon - Penny Marie, by Sky Classic, April 20, 2009 in Virginia, $60,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a juvenile sprint winner (1-2, 33K, 1-2 at two, 1-2 sprinting) that is 161-828 (19%) with juveniles. The dam, a $27,000 yearling and $180,000 juvenile, was a multiple stakes-winner (7-17, 351K, 3-4 sprinting) and has foaled 2 winners from 4 runners (0-3 with 2yos, 0-4 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed Blue Creek (5-28, 150K, 0-4 at two, 4-21 sprinting).  Trainer Robert Ribaudo is 0-1 over the past five years with second-time juveniles in maiden special weight dirt sprints. Faced a very promising runaway winner in career debut and can certainly move forward off that effort.

10. BE WITH ME (Corinthian - Sonoma Song, by Unbridled's Song, March 14, 2009 in Kentucky, $85,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a Grade 1 route winner (6-12, 1.2M, 1-2 at two, 0-1 sprinting) that is 3-40 (8%) with juveniles from his first crop of 2011. The dam, a $550,000 yearling, was placed sprinting at two (0-2, 6K, 0-1 at two, 0-1 sprinting) and this is her first starter. The dam is a half-sister to Grade 3 route winner Saint Marden (4-8, 159K, 0-2 sprinting), stakes-winner Sweet Lips (6-13, 565K, 1-3 sprinting) and multiple Grade 1-placed router Nehro (1-7, 885K, 0-1 at two, 0-1 sprinting).  Trainer Jimmy Jerkens is 6-16 (38%, $1.89 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles in maiden special weight dirt sprints (1-2, 50%, $2.40 ROI at Saratoga). Finished behind Centrique in debut, but barn has good numbers with second-out babies.

9. SEA ISLAND (Pulpit - Resort, by Pleasant Colony, February 9, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a multiple Grade 2 route winner (4-6, 728K, 1-1 sprinting) that is 38-3034 (13%) with juvenile debut runners (4-32, 13%, $0.86 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 older winner at this meet). The dam was multiple Grade 1-placed (4-19, 247K, 1-2 at two, 1-3 sprinting) and has foaled 2 winners from 3 runners (1-1 with 2yos, 0-2 with sprinters). Sea Island is a full sister to Grade 2 route winner Sightseeing (2-18, 508K, 1-5 at two, 0-2 sprinting). The dam is a half-sister to Grade 2 route winner Living Vicariously (5-15, 356K, 1-5 at two, 2-5 sprinting) and Grade 3 winner With Distinction (6-29, 447K, 5-18 sprinting).  Trainer Shug McGaughey is 0-44 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (0-15 at Saratoga).  McGaughey is 1-18 (5%, $2.32 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

7. TRADING PAINT (Indian Charlie - Nesselrode, by Lemon Drop Kid, February 2, 2009 in Kentucky, $65,000 RNA Keeneland September yearling, $175,000 OBS Select March juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.2 prior to the March auction.  She is by a Grade 1 route winner (4-5, 616K, 1-1 at two, 2-2 sprinting) that is 38-244 (16%) with juvenile debut runners (3-38, 8%, $1.05 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 2 juvenile debut winners). The dam, a $460,000 weanling, was unplaced (0-1, 2K, 0-1 at two, 0-1 sprinting) and this is her first starter.  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winner Desert Gold (6-12, 243K, 2-4 sprinting). The August 6, August 12 workouts match trainer Al Stall's juvenile Seven Lively Sins (finished third in career debut on August 31 with 72 Beyer). Stall is 7-38 (18%) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (0-8 at Saratoga). Stall is 8-40 (20%, $1.68 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

5. REFINING (Malibu Moon - Good Cause, by Giant's Causeway, foaled February 8, 2009 in Florida, $37,000 RNA Keeneland September yearling) is by a juvenile sprint winner (1-2, 33K, 1-2 at two, 1-2 sprinting) that is 161-828 (19%) with juveniles. The dam was unraced and this is her first starter. The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winner Tee Cat (8-37, 198K, 0-1 at two, 3-15 sprinting), multiple stakes-placed Chula (3-20, 69K), stakes-placed Amon (9-44, 167K, 0-2 at two, 0-3 sprinting) and stakes-winner Snug Harbour (6-16, 164K, 1-5 at two, 3-7 sprinting). Trainer Bill Mott is 7-38 (18%, $1.69 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles in maiden special weight dirt sprints (4-18, 22%, $2.67 ROI at Saratoga). Tackled an extremely tough field earlier in the meet and wasn't disgraced.  Mott is better second-out and Refining wouldn't be a surprise.

11. FLASHY IN PINK (Flashy Bull - Laelia, by Marquetry, February 14, 2009 in Kentucky, $19,000 RNA Keeneland November weanling, Withdrawn Fasig-Tipton Summer July yearling, $17,000 Keeneland September yearling, $95,000 Fasig-Tipton February juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.1 prior to the February auction. She is by a Grade 1 route winner (5-19, 844K, 1-6 at two, 1-6 sprinting) that is 11-49 (22%) with juveniles from his first crop of 2011.  The dam was placed (0-6, 11K, 0-1 at two, 0-4 sprinting) and this is her first starter.  The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed No Affair (4-20, 105K, 1-4 at two, 4-14 sprinting).  Trainer Todd Pletcher is 20-94 (21%, $1.04 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles in maiden special weight dirt sprints (5-39, 13%, $0.51 ROI at Saratoga). Raced greenly in her debut and must improve a bit.

8. LADY CLARA (Hard Spun - Victorica, by Exbourne, March 20, 2009 in Kentucky, $50,000 Keeneland September yearling, Withdrawn OBS Select March juvenile, Out Keeneland April juvenile, $50,000 Fasig-Tipton Spring juvenile) worked 2 furlongs in 22.3 prior to the May auction.  She is by a Grade 1 sprint winner (7-13, 2.6M, 3-3 at two, 4-4 sprinting) that is 2-21 (10%, $0.99 ROI) with juvenile debut runners from his first crop of 2011.  The dam was a stakes-winner (5-30, 293K, 2-3 at two, won debut, 2-3 sprinting) and has foaled 1 winner from 4 runners (1-2 with 2yos, 0-2 sprinting).  Lady Clara is a half-sister to Irish juvenile stakes-winning turfer King Hesperus (2-39, 221K, 1-3 at two). The dam is a half-sister to British stakes-winning turfer Noble Minstrel. The June 7 workout matches trainer Michael Trombetta's juvenile filly What'smineismine (finished third in career debut at Parx on July 1 with 23 Beyer). The June 15 workout matches Trombetta's juvenile filly Sunday Appeal (finished third in $30,000 maiden claimer at Delaware on June 20 with 23 Beyer). The July 9, August 6, August 13 workouts match Trombetta's juvenile Super Saturday (finished fourth in career debut on turf on September 3).  The June 15 workout matches Trombetta's 4-year-old filly Vanishing Grey (finished first in 'n2L' allowance over the Tapeta surface at Presque Isle Downs on July 27 with 78 Beyer).  The June 15 workout matches Trombetta's 3-year-old filly Lady in the Park (finished fifth in $25,000 maiden claimer over the Tapeta surface at Presque Isle Downs on June 18 with 33 Beyer). The July 16, August 6 workouts match Trombetta's 3-year-old filly Purely Love (finished first in career debut on August 25 in $50,000 maiden claimer with 69 Beyer). The August 6 workout matches Trombetta's juvenile French Lieutenant (finished fourth in career debut over the Tapeta surface at Presque Isle Downs on August 24 with 34 Beyer). The August 6 juvenile matches Trombetta's juvenile Yes He Did (finished first in career debut in $50,000 maiden claimer at Monmouth on July 15 with 37 Beyer). The August 21 workout matches Trombetta's juvenile Dehere of the Cat (finished fifth in the Gold and Roses Stakes on September 2 with 71 Beyer). Trombetta is 18-77 (23%, $1.78 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (2-8, 25%, $2.61 ROI at Saratoga). Trombetta is 4-33 (12%, $1.68 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011. 

6. NEWBIE (Bernardini - Changeisgonnacome, by Cherokee Run, March 19, 2009 in New York) is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (6-8, 3.0M, 0-1 sprinting) that is 9-52 (17%) with juvenile debut runners (8-48, 17%, with all debut runners in 2011, 5 juvenile debut winners, 1 at this meet). The dam, a $32,000 yearling, was a juvenile stakes-winning sprinter (3-16, 172K, 2-6 at two, 3-7 sprinting) and this is her first starter. The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winning turfer Little Miss Pamela (3-14, 127K, 2-5 at two, won debut, 0-1 sprinting).  Trainer John Kimmel is 8-52 (15%, $2.24 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (4-19, 21%, $3.61 ROI at Saratoga). Kimmel is 1-10 (10%, $0.75 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

2. VERY SPECIAL LADY (Rock Hard Ten - Thunderous Ovation, by Thunder Gulch, January 12, 2009, $50,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Grade 1 winner (7-11, 1.8M, 2-2 sprinting) that is 7-53 (13%) with juvenile debut runners (6-38, 16%, $2.71 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 juvenile debut winner). The dam, a $70,000 yearling, was unplaced (0-1, 1K) and this is her first starter.  The dam is a half-sister to multiple Grade 3 turfer Sharp Performance (4-7, 279K). The July 30, August 6, August 12, August 18, August 24 workouts match trainer Ken McPeek's juvenile filly Goldrush Girl (scheduled to debut in Race 6). McPeek is 10-71 (14%, $2.23 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (0-16 at Saratoga). McPeek is 4-50 (8%, $1.08 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

Selections:
1. Tapajo
2. Lisa T.
3. Centrique

The Play:
Tapajo to Win and Place at 5-1 odds or greater