09/03/2011 9:27PM

Saratoga: Spa Babies for Sept. 4, Race 6

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Welcome to Spa Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile contest at the meet and hope for a tidy profit.

In past years, I would list the stats for each horse before writing up my analysis, selections and wagering strategy. In order to streamline the content, this year's Spa Babies will showcase written analyses of each juvenile race. Each analysis will include relevant statistical information. Following the analysis, top three selections and wagering strategy will be provided.

Saturday's results:

Race 2: Da Vinci finished tenth
Race 7: Go West finished fourth
Race 12: Think I'm Hooked scratched; second-choice Saratoga Snacks finished first

Sunday, September 4, 2011
Race 6
1 1/16 Miles (Turf)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-old fillies
Purse $51,000

Analysis:

11. PIANIST (More Than Ready - Red Piano, by Red Ransom, May 25, 2009 in Kentucky, $100,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a Grade 1 sprint winner (7-17, 1.0M, 5-7 at two, won debut) that is 34-311 (11%) with juvenile debut runners (3-43, 7% with all debut runners in 2011, 1 juvenile debut winner, 1 older winner on turf) and 55-384 (14%) with first-turfers.  The dam was a turf winner (2-5, 59K, 2-5 on turf) and has foaled 1 winner from 2 runners, 0-2 with 2yos, 0-2 with turfers). The dam is a half-sister to multiple Grade 3-placed Stanislavsky (1-6, 75K).  The July 6, July 19, July 25, August 8 workouts match trainer Chad Brown's juvenile filly Street Savy (finished second in career debut on dirt on August 21 with 53 Beyer). The July 12 workout went .03 slower than Brown's juvenile Go West (finished fourth in career debut on dirt on September 3). The August 14 workout went .04 slower than Street Savy.  The August 21 workout matches Brown's 4-year-old filly Zagora (98 turf Beyer, 112 Racing Post Rating on Turf). Brown is 4-24 (17%, Positive ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf routes (3-13, 23%, Positive ROI at Saratoga). Brown is 4-36 (11%, $1.54 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

6. FORMATIVE  (Dynaformer - Formal Approval, by Kingmambo, March 27, 2009 in Kentucky, $170,000 Fasig-Tipton Fall November weanling, $130,000 RNA Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Grade 2 winner (7-30, 671K, 1-5 at two, 2-7 on turf) that is 138-1171 (12%) with juveniles and 943-6605 (14%) with turfers.  The Dynaformer - Kingmambo breeding 'nick' has produced German champion Wiener Walzer (4-14, 775K, 0-1 at two, 4-14 on turf), British champion Ocean Silk (4-22, 370K, 0-1 at two, 4-21 on turf) and Grade 1 turf winner Gozzip Girl (5-14, 814K, 1-2 at two, 5-12 on turf).  The dam was placed on turf overseas (0-6, 5K, 0-6 on turf) and has foaled 0 winners from 3 runners (0-2 with juveniles, 0-3 with turfers). The dam is a half-sister to Japanese stakes-winner Maruka Diesis (5-24, 1.3M), French Group 3 juvenile turf winner Woodland Melody (3-4, 57K, 3-3 at two, 3-4 on turf) and British Group 3 juvenile turf winner Saintly Speech (2-2, 43K, 2-2 at two, 2-2 on turf).  Trainer Bill Mott is 6-58 (10%) over the past five years with second-time juveniles in maiden special weight turf routes (2-17, 12% at Saratoga). Didn't have an easy trip while racing a bit greenly in career debut and should move forward with that effort under her belt. Note, however, that the three horses to return from that race all failed to hit the board next-out.

15. HOLIDAY'S JEWEL (Harlan's Holiday - Denali Red, by Crafty Prospector, March 1, 2009 in Kentucky, $75,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner 9-22, 3.6M, 4-6 at two) that is 25-180 (14%) with juvenile debut runners (5-47, 11%, $2.76 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 juvenile debut winner at this meet) and 19-146 (13%) with first-turfers.  The dam, a $40,000 yearling, was unplaced (0-5, 0-4 at two, 0-1 on turf) and has foaled 1 winner from 1 runner (0-1 with 2yos, 1-1 with turfers, first-turf winner). The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winning sprinter Tricky Six (4-17, 93K, 3-7 at two). The August 1 workout matches trainer Carlos Martin's juvenile Gossip Column (finished second in career debut in $75,000 maiden claimer on grass on August 11 with 71 Beyer). Martin is 0-3 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf routes.  Martin is 3-19 (16%, $3.69 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

1. DIVINE LUCK (Ghostzapper - Oh What a Windfall, by Seeking the Gold, May 3, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a multiple Grade 1 winner (9-11, 3.4M, 1-2 at two, won debut) that is 6-61 (10%) with juvenile debut runners (11-44, 25%, $2.76 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 4 juvenile debut winners, 3 older winners on turf) and 12-85 (14%) with first-turfers.  The dam was a Grade 1 winner at two (4-18, 363K, 3-7 at two, 0-2 on turf) and has foaled 2 winners from 5 runners (0-1 with 2yos, 2-4 with turfers).  Divine Luck is a half-sister to Grade 2-placed turfer Pick Six (4-36, 328K, 3-30 on turf) and Grade 2-placed router Conservative (2-22, 161K, 0-3 at two, 1-11 on turf). The dam is a full sister to multiple Grade 1 winner Heavenly Prize (9-18, 1.8M, 2-3 at two, won debut), Grade 3-placed router Hunting Hard (3-12, 103K, 0-1 on turf) and juvenile Grade 1-placed router Dancinginmydreams (1-3, 64K, 1-3 at two, won debut). Trainer Shug McGaughey is 1-15 (7%, $1.24 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf routes (0-9 at Saratoga).  McGaughey is 1-18 (5%, $2.32 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

2. SINGN ON THEMOON (Malibu Moon - Listen to My Song, by Unbridled's Song, February 13, 2009 in Kentucky, $110,000 RNA Fasig-Tipton Select August yearling, Out Keeneland September yearling, $85,000 RNA OBS Select March juvenile, Out Keeneland April juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.3 prior to the March auction.  She is by a juvenile sprint winner (1-2, 33K, 1-2 at two) that is 161-828 (19%) with juveniles and 28-293 (10%) with first-turfers.  The dam, a $600,000 yearling, was unraced and has foaled 2 winners from 3 runners (0-2 with 2yos, 1-1 with turfers). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winning router Indy Bird (4-17, 136K, 2-9 at two), Grade 2 sprint winner Listen Here (4-10, 287K, 3-4 at two), Grade 3-placed Listen (3-7, 70K, 0-2 on turf) and stakes-placed sprinter Parade the Flag (5-20, 89K, 0-2 at two, 0-1 on turf). Trainer Gary Contessa is 0-8 over the past five years with second-time juveniles going dirt to turf and sprint to route in maiden special weights (0-2 at Saratoga). No match for runaway winner over muddy going in career debut.  May show better speed stretching out.  It's probably too early to give up on her just yet.

5. GOLDRUSH GIRL (Political Force - Chasethegold, by Touch Gold, January 22, 2009 in Kentucky, $60,000 Fasig-Tipton Summer July yearling) is by a Grade 1 route winner (4-17, 607K, 1-5 at two) that is 2-12 (17%, $2.12 ROI) with juvenile debut runners and 0-1 with first-turfers from his first crop of 2011. The dam was Grade 3-placed (3-16, 154K, 0-2 at two, 3-10 on turf, first-turf winner) and has foaled 1 winner from 1 runner (0-0 with 2yos, 1-1 with turfers). The dam is a half-sister to Grade 1 route winner Albertus Maximus (6-17, 1.3M, 0-1 at two, 0-1 on turf). The July 30, August 6, August 12, August 18, August 24 workouts match trainer Ken McPeek's juvenile filly Very Special Lady (scheduled to debut in Race 7). McPeek is 3-33 (9%, $2.33 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf routes (1-11, 9%, $4.40 ROI at Saratoga). McPeek is 4-50 (8%, $1.08 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

10. DANCING SOLO (Giant's Causeway - Dancing Alone, by Kingmambo, February 28, 2009 in Kentucky, $100,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Group 1 turf winner (9-13, 3.0M, 3-3 at two, 9-12 on turf, first-turf winner) that is 18-197 (9%) with juvenile debut runners (8-44, 18%, $2.91 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 3 juvenile debut winners, 1 at this meet, 1 older debut winner on turf) and 38-361 (11%) with first-turf runners.  The Giant's Causeway - Kingmambo breeding 'nick' has produced Grade 1 turf winner Red Giant (6-12, 1.0M, 0-2 at two, 6-9 on turf, first-turf winner) and British Group 1 turf winner Maid's Causeway (4-11, 644K, 3-7 at two, 4-11 on turf). The dam was unraced and this is her first starter. The dam is a half-sister to Grade 3-placed Gravette (4-11, 123K) and juvenile Grade 2-placed sprinter Waycross (3-11, 94K, 1-4 at two, won debut, 0-2 on turf). The dam is a full sister to multiple Grade 1 turf winner Voodoo Dancer (11-21, 1.4M, 2-3 at two, 11-20 on turf, first-turf winner). The July 7, July 14 workouts match trainer Todd Pletcher's juvenile Hunt Crossing (won career debut on dirt on August 3 with 87 Beyer). The July 14 workout matches Pletcher's juvenile Our Entourage (finished second in career debut on dirt on August 27 with 60 Beyer). The July 21 workout went .03 faster than Pletcher's juvenile filly Lisa T. (scheduled to make career debut in Race 7). The August 10 workout matches Pletcher's juvenile filly Disposablepleasure (finished fourth in career debut on turf on August 14 with 65 Beyer).  The August 18 workout went .01 faster than Lisa T.  The August 30 workout went .03 faster than Pletcher's juvenile filly Patrice Merion (70 turf Beyer). Pletcher is 7-67 (10%) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf routes (5-33, 15% at Saratoga). Pletcher is 24-100 (24%, $1.64 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

8. KARLOVY VARY (Dynaformer - The Right Pew, by Pulpit, February 3, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a multiple Grade 2 winner (7-30, 671K, 1-5 at two, 2-7 on turf) that is 39-381 (10%) with juvenile debut runners (3-28, 11%, $2.06 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 2 debut winners on turf) and 102-727 (14%) with first-turfers.  The dam, a $230,000 yearling, was a sprint winner (1-8, 30K) and has foaled 3 winners from 3 runners (0-2 with 2yos, 1-2 with turfers).  Karlovy Vary is a full sister to Grade 2-placed Rocket Legs (5-34, 196K, 0-1 at two, 2-22 on turf). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed Shop Hill (4-36, 241K, 0-1 at two, 3-16 on turf), multiple Grade 2 winner Great Intentions (7-20, 425K, 1-1 at two, 0-1 on turf) and multiple stakes-winning turfer Sea Road (4-16, 187K, 1-3 at two, 4-15 on turf). The August 6 workout matches trainer Rusty Arnold's 3-year-old filly Rocket Shoes (58 turf Beyer). The August 26 workout matches Arnold's juvenile New Wave (finished second in the P. G. Johnson Stakes at Saratoga on August 31 with 70 Beyer). Arnold is 0-11 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf routes (0-1 at Saratoga). Arnold is 4-22 (18%, $6.12 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

9. ZULTANITE (El Corredor - Roaming Wild, by Wild Again, January 31, 2009 in Kentucky, $23,000 RNA Keeneland November 2009, $57,000 Fasig-Tipton Summer July yearling) is by a Grade 1 route winner (7-10, 727K, 1-2 at two) that is 81-736 (11%) with juveniles and 22-244 (9%) with first-turf runners. The dam, a $25,000 yearling, was a first-turf winner (2-8, 34K, 2-4 at two, 2-5 on turf, first-turf winner) and has foaled 0 winners from 2 runners (0-2 with 2yos, 0-1 with turfers). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winning sprinter Cedar Knolls (6-25, 312K, 0-1 at two, 0-1 on turf). The September 1 workout matches trainer David Donk's juvenile Adriatic Spirit (64 turf Beyer).  Donk is 1-11 (9%, $1.30 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles going dirt to turf and sprint to route in maiden special weights (1-5, 20%, $2.88 ROI at Saratoga). Chased Spinaway entrant And Why Not when cold on the board going 6 1/2 furlongs on the dirt, but it's interesting that Dominguez take the mount.

14. QUEEN OF ENGLAND (English Channel - Babae, by Barkerville, April 23, 2009 in Kentucky, Withdrawn Keeneland November weanling, $10,000 RNA Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Grade 1 turf winner (13-23, 5.3M, 1-1 at two, 13-22 on turf, first-turf winner) that is 4-32 (13%) with juveniles and 2-13 (15%) with turfers from his first crop of 2011.  The dam was a multiple Grade 3 turf winner (14-40, 755K, 2-7 at two, 14-38 on turf) and has foaled 2 winners from 5 runners (0-3 with 2yos, 0-4 with turfers in North America).  The dam is a half-sister to Peruvian Group 1 winner Zorro Rojo (4-11, 38K, 0-1 on turf) and stakes-winning turfer Queen of Hearts (2-8, 160K, 2-6 on turf). Trainer John Kimmel is 9-48 (19%, $3.04 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles on turf (3-13, 23%, $4.70 ROI at Saratoga). Makes first start for new ownership after faltering in career debut.  The runner-up from that race returned to graduate going long on grass with a 72 Beyer.

7. HEART OF DESTINY (Lion Heart - Doc's Destiny, by Doc's Leader, February 14, 2009 in Kentucky, $12,000 RNA Fasig-Tipton Summer July yearling) is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (5-10, 1.3M, 3-3 at two) that is 88-560 (16%) with juveniles and 13-144 (9%) with first-turfers.  The dam was stakes-placed (4-13, 152K, 4-11 on turf, first-turf winner) and has foaled 2 winners from 6 runners (0-5 with juveniles, 0-3 with turfers).  Heart of Destiny is a half-brother to Grade 2-placed router Brother Bobby (3-13, 298K, 0-1 at two).  This is the female family of multiple Grade 1 winner Life's Hope (15-87, 845K). Trainer James Baker is 0-1 over the past five years with second-time juveniles going dirt to turf and sprint to route in maiden special weight (0-1 at Saratoga).  Split two next-out winners when third in career debut on the dirt (runner-up graduated with a 74 Beyer while the fourth-finisher dropped in for $50,000 to win with a 54).

13. SWEET AND LOVELY (Street Cry - Sunbeam Music, by Fly So Free, March 18, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a multiple Grade/Group 1 route winner (5-12, 5.1M, 1-5 at two) that is 40-255 (16%) with juveniles and 16-128 (13%) with first-turfers. The dam was placed sprinting (0-1, 2K, 0-1 at two) and has foaled 2 winners from 4 runners (1-2 with 2yos, 0-1 with turfers in North America). The dam is a half-sister to Grade 1 route winner Nobiz Like Shobiz (7-13, 1.5M, 2-3 at two, 3-5 on turf, first-turf winner) and Grade 2-placed sprinter Hello Broadway (2-9, 149K, 1-3 at two, 0-1 on turf). The August 25 workout went .01 slower than trainer Ian Wilkes' juvenile Timely Tally (finished sixth in maiden special weight on dirt on September 3). Trainer Ian Wilkes is 0-1 over the past five years with second-time juveniles going dirt to turf and adding Lasix (0-1 at Saratoga). Lots of changes for second lifetime start.  Note that this barn does better second-out than with firsters so improvement is possible.

3. CAROLINA LIGHT (Rockport Harbor - Perpetual Light, by Sunny's Halo, February 22, 2009 in Kentucky, $85,000 RNA Keeneland September yearling) is by a juvenile Grade 2 route winner (5-8, 324K, 4-4 at two) that is 10-96 (10%) with juvenile debut runners (6-49, 12%, $1.56 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011, 4 juvenile debut winners, 1 at this meet) and 2-47 (4%) with first-turfers. The dam was a route winner (1-9, 17K) and has foaled 5 winners from 6 runners (1-4 with 2yos, 0-5 with turfers).  Carolina Light is a half-sister to Grade 3 route winner Scrappy T (3-17, 645K, 1-5 at two, 0-1 on turf) and multiple Grade 2 sprint winner Tar Heel Mom (11-27, 811K, 0-1 on turf). The dam is a half-sister to juvenile stakes-placed sprinter Flash Camera (6-42, 47K, 3-11 at two, won debut, 0-2 on turf) and multiple stakes-winning sprinter Sarasa (9-33, 157K, 2-6 at two, 0-2 on turf).  Trainer Stanley Hough is 0-7 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf routes (0-6 at Saratoga). Hough is 0-2 with all debut runners in 2011.

12. LADY OF SHAMROCK (Scat Daddy - Blushing Issue, by Blushing John, March 12, 2009 in Kentucky, $35,000 RNA Keeneland November weanling, $80,000 Fasig-Tipton Summer July yearling, Withdrawn Fasig-Tipton February juvenile, $11,000 Fasig-Tipton Spring May juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.4 prior to the May auction.  She is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (5-9, 1.3M, 3-5 at two, won debut) that is 4-37 (11%, $0.82 ROI) with juvenile debut runners and 2-12 (217%) with first-turf runners from his first crop of 2011.  The dam, a $50,000 juvenile, was unplaced (0-3, 0-3 at two, 0-1 on turf) and has foaled 4 winners from 6 runners (1-3 with 2yos, 2-4 with turfers).  Lady of Shamrock is a half-sister to Grade 2 sprint winner Smooth Jazz (5-11, 321K) and multiple stakes-winner She's Sensational (6-16, 174K, 4-8 on turf, first-turf winner). The dam is a half-sister to French stakes-winning turfer Johnny Mountain, Grade 1 winner Royal Chariot (7-19, 659K, 4-9 on turf, first-turf winner) and juvenile stakes-placed Burning Hope (2-16, 109K, 1-6 at two, 1-10 on turf).  Trainer Ronny Werner is 0-3 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf routes.  Werner is 1-15 (6%, $1.36 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

4. SALSA MAMBO (Include - Miss Special Salsa, by Mr. Greeley, March 25, 2009 in Kentucky, $14,000 RNA Keeneland November weanling, $10,000 OBS Open August yearling, $35,000 OBS Spring April juvenile) worked a furlong in 10.1 prior to the April auction. She is by a Grade 1 route winner (10-20, 1.6M, 0-2 at two) that is 79-516 (15%) with juveniles and 13-156 (8%) with first-turfers. The Include - Mr. Greeley breeding 'nick' has produced Grade 3-placed router Infrattini (1-6, 107K, 0-1 at two). The dam, a $230,000 weanling and $145,000 juvenile, was unraced and has foaled 1 winner from 2 runners (0-1 with
juveniles, 0-1 with turfers). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed Four Song Limit (2-11, 81K, 0-5 at two, 2-7 on turf) and multiple stakes-winner Victoryasecret (8-18, 217K, 0-1 at two, 3-6 on turf). Trainer Gary Contessa is 2-14 (14%, $7.71 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles going dirt to turf and sprint to route in maiden special weight (0-3 at Saratoga).

16. NEBRASKA (Street Cry - Honest Lady, by Seattle Slew, January 27, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a multiple Grade/Group 1 route winner (5-12, 5.1M, 1-5 at two, 1-3 sprinting) that is 11-102 (11%) with juvenile debut runners (2-18, 11%, $1.11 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 juvenile debut winner at this meet). The Street Cry - Seattle Slew breeding 'nick' has produced juvenile Grade 3 route winner Globetrotter (3-6, 295K, 2-3 at two, won debut, 1-1 sprinting). The dam was a Grade 1 winner (6-15, 894K, 1-1 at two, 5-10 sprinting) and has foaled 6 winners from 6 runners (3-4 with 2yos, 2-3 with sprinters). Nebraska is a half-sister to French stakes-winning turfer Phantom Rose (3-6, 98K), Grade 1 sprint winner First Defence (6-14, 580K, 1-3 at two, 4-10 sprinting) and British juvenile stakes-winning turfer Honest Quality (2-6, 49K, 2-4 at two). The dam is a half-sister to Grade 1 turf winner Chester House (6-21, 1.9M, 1-2 at two, won debut), Grade 2 turf winner Decarchy (6-19, 703K, 1-1 at two), Grade 1 turf winner Chiselling (3-10, 410K) and multiple Grade 1 route winner Empire Maker (4-8, 1.9M, 1-2 at two, won debut). The July 15, August 8 workouts match trainer Bill Mott's juvenile filly Sweet Zapper (finished second in career debut on turf on August 19 with 68 Beyer).  Trainer Bill Mott is 9-109 (8%, $0.99 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (4-49, 8%, $0.62 ROI at Saratoga). Mott is 3-43 (6%, $1.19 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

Selections:
1. Pianist
2. Formative
3. Holiday's Jewel

The Play:
Pianist to Win at 5-2 odds or greater