09/03/2011 9:32PM

Saratoga: Spa Babies for Sept. 4, Race 10


Welcome to Spa Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile contest at the meet and hope for a tidy profit.

In past years, I would list the stats for each horse before writing up my analysis, selections and wagering strategy. In order to streamline the content, this year's Spa Babies will showcase written analyses of each juvenile race. Each analysis will include relevant statistical information. Following the analysis, top three selections and wagering strategy will be provided.

Race 10
7 Furlongs
Spinaway Stakes (Grade 1)
2-year-old fillies
Purse $250,000

LADY PECAN won her maiden for a $75,000 tag over the Woodbine polytrack, but was purchased privately following that race and the new connections are showing confidence by placing her in the Grade 1 Spinaway for her dirt debut.  Trainer Bob Baffert has won with 28% of his Saratoga runners over the past five years and Lady Pecan may work out a good stalking trip behind a solid pace.

Trainer Wesley Ward has been high on JUDY THE BEAUTY since the very start and the Ghostzapper filly has repaid his confidence with three straight wins in three different countries.  She was a bit late to make her final lead change when winning the Shady Well Stakes on July 17, but draws a comfortable outside post and has been working quickly over the dirt at Aqueduct. The fourth-place finisher from the Shady Well, Quality Lass, returned to graduate at Woodbine by seven lengths with an 81 Beyer.

GEORGIE'S ANGEL looked strong winning her career debut at Churchill Downs for Todd Pletcher and she backed up that performance by taking advantage of a pace collapse in the Grade 3 Schuylerville here on Opening Day.  Georgie's Angel has excellent tactical speed and may wind up tracking the early leaders while saving early ground.

GRACE HALL put away a pace challenger en route to winning her career debut at Delaware for high-percentage trainer Tony Dutrow.  She may end up with first run on the pacesetter going into the turn, but that maiden win has yet to produce much (the three horses to come back ran Beyers of 57, 14 and 2 in their next starts).

TRUE FEELINGS looks like a progressive sort that will appreciate the additional furlong of the Spinaway.  She rallied from off the pace to win her debut at Delaware for Dutrow and was slowly gaining on Georgie's Angel in the Schuylerville.  A blazing early pace would set things up quite nicely for this closer.
BORN BULLISH dominated maidens in her debut at Belmont and the third- and fourth-place finishers from that race returned to graduate.  She had a hint of trouble in her first start against winners in the Colleen Stakes at Monmouth and can be forwardly-placed with an alert break.

BAFFLE ME hasn't left the gate on time in either of her two starts, but perhaps the addition of blinkers will get her head into the game.  She won her maiden at Monmouth over two next-out winners and finished ahead of Born Bullish in the Colleen.  She has some late pop but may be best played on the bottom of exotic wagers.

AND WHY NOT rallied powerfully to win her debut at 6 1/2 furlongs over "good" going, but the Beyer Speed Figure didn't come back very fast (64).  She's bred to be a nice one, is certainly eligible to move forward off that promising debut and should get some pace to attack.  She will have to break from an intimidating inside post, however.

VUKOVAR showed high speed in the Schuylerville, but was left panting for air when the real running began.  The connections remove blinkers in the hope of settling her down a bit, but she still should be up and on the lead under Corey Nakatani.  She still has some class questions to answer.

1. Lady Pecan
2. Judy the Beauty
3. Grace Hall

The Play:
Lady Pecan to Win and Place at 9-2 odds or greater

* Meet record based on starts, wins, top pick (after scratches) in the money, and profit/loss of that day's play ($2 wager, scheduled surface only): 76-16-36 (-$31.30)