09/02/2011 10:11PM

Saratoga: Spa Babies for Sept. 3, Race 7

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Welcome to Spa Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile contest at the meet and hope for a tidy profit.

In past years, I would list the stats for each horse before writing up my analysis, selections and wagering strategy. In order to streamline the content, this year's Spa Babies will showcase written analyses of each juvenile race. Each analysis will include relevant statistical information. Following the analysis, top three selections and wagering strategy will be provided.

Race 7
7 Furlongs
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-olds
Purse $50,000

Analysis:
5. GO WEST (Tiznow - Cimarron Forest, by Forestry, May 13, 2009 in Kentucky, $200,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (8-15, 6.4M, 0-1 sprinting) that is 18-203 (9%) with juvenile debut runners (3-62, 5%, $0.34 ROI with all debut runners in 2011,). The dam was unplaced (0-1) and this is her first starter. The dam is a half-sister to Grade 3-placed turfer Andover Lady (3-11, 130K). The June 17, August 26 workouts match trainer Chad Brown's juvenile Clip the Coupons (finished first in career debut on August 13 with 82 Beyer).  The July 6 workout went .01 slower than Brown's juvenile filly Book Review (finished second in career debut on August 14 with 76 Beyer). The August 8 workout matches Book Review.  The August 8 workout matches Brown's 3-year-old filly Yawkey Way (finished eighth in an 'n2x' optional claimer on August 31 with 46 Beyer). The July 31 workout went .02 slower than Brown's juvenile Fantastic Song (finished first in career debut on turf on August 20 with 68 Beyer). The August 20 workout matches Brown's 3-year-old Self Control (finished first in a maiden special weight on September 1 with 83 Beyer). Brown is 4-23 (17%, $1.76 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (4-12, 33%, $3.39 ROI at Saratoga). Brown is 4-34 (11%, $1.64 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

9. AFRICANIST (Johannesburg - Mekko Hokte, by Holy Bull, April 26, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a multiple Grade/Group 1 juvenile winner (7-10, 1.0M, 7-7 at two) that is 19-212 (9%) with juveniles.  The dam, a $67,000 weanling and $13,500 yearling, was a juvenile stakes-winning sprinter (3-13, 76K, 2-4 at two, 3-10 sprinting) and has foaled 1 winner from 3 runners (1-3 with juveniles, 1-3 with sprinters).  Africanist is a half-brother to Grade 2 sprinter My Jen (4-9, 203K, 3-3 at two, 4-9 sprinting).  The third dam is stakes-winner Silver in Flight (5-21, 147K). Trainer Eddie Kenneally is 3-18 (17%, $1.78 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles in maiden special weight dirt sprints (2-7, 29%, $2.72 ROI at Saratoga). Rated back to a comfortable stalking position in midpack and saved ground on the turn of his debut.  Eased out in midstretch and rallied for the place behind big-figure winner.

3. INVOCATION (Pulpit - Missamerica Bertie, by Quiet American, Foaled February 14, 2009 in Kentucky, $240,000 RNA Fasig-Tipton Select August yearling, Out Keeneland September yearling, $250,000 Fasig-Tipton February juvenile, Out Keeneland April juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.2 prior to the February auction.  He is by a multiple Grade 2 route winner (4-6, 728K, 1-1 sprinting) that is 125-796 (16%) with juveniles.  The dam was placed routing (0-4, 7K) and this is her first starter.  The dam is a half-sister to Grade 2 winner Hurricane Bertie (14-35, 904K, 2-7 at two, 13-32 sprinting), stakes-placed sprinter My Poppy Bert (10-52, 228K, 1-2 at two, 9-47 sprinting), and multiple Grade 2 winner Allamerican Bertie (8-14, 799K, 1-3 sprinting).  Trainer John Kimmel is 4-21 (19%, $1.59 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles in maiden special weight dirt sprints (2-6, 33%, $2.18 ROI at Saratoga). Broke poorly in debut and was hustled hard to get back into the race.  Cut the corner turning for home, rallied nicely for third and galloped out well.  Should improve here.

7. LITTLE WYATT (Rockport Harbor - Open Minded, by Wharf, April 25, 2009 in Kentucky, Entered Fasig-Tipton Winter February short yearling, $8,500 Keeneland September yearling, $100,000 Fasig-Tipton Spring May juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.2 prior to the May auction.  He is by a juvenile Grade 2 route winner (5-8, 324K, 4-4 at two, 2-2 sprinting) that is 10-94 (11%) with juvenile debut runners (6-49, 12%, $1.56 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 4 juvenile debut winners, 1 at this meet). The dam was Grade 3-placed (4-26, 149K, 1-5 at two, 2-9 sprinting) and has foaled 1 winner from 2 runners (0-1 with 2yos, 1-2 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed Publisher's Phil (7-20, 118K, 0-2 sprinting) and multiple stakes-winner Emerald Earrings (10-25, 494K, 1-1 at two, 4-9 sprinting). Trainer Bobby Barbara is 0-20 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (0-7 at Saratoga). Barbara is 6-64 (9%, $2.36 ROI) with all debut runners since January 1, 2006.

4. JULIUS CAESAR (Empire Maker - Redhead Riot, by Top Account, March 17, 2009 in Kentucky, Withdrawn OBS Select August yearling, $330,000 OBS Select March juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.1 prior to the March auction.  He is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (4-8, 1.9M, 1-2 at two, won debut) that is 10-99 (10%) with juvenile debut runners (3-27, 11%, $0.83 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 2 juvenile debut winners). The dam was a Grade 2-placed sprinter (5-19, 231K, 5-19 sprinting) and has foaled 2 winners from 2 runners (0-0 with 2yos, 1-2 with sprinters). This is the family of multiple Grade 1 winner Tempest Queen (8-19, 289K, 0-3 at two). The July 24 workout matches trainer Al Stall's juvenile Seven Lively Sins (finished third in career debut on August 31 with 72 Beyer). Stall is 7-37 (19%, $1.12 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (0-7 at Saratoga). Stall is 8-39 (20%, $1.72 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

2. TIMELY TALLY (Mr. Greeley - Score, by A.P. Indy, March 7, 2009 in Kentucky, $220,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Grade 3 sprint winner (5-16, 474K, 2-6 at two, 4-11 sprinting) that is 123-930 (13%) with juveniles.  The dam was unplaced (0-2, 1K, 0-2 sprinting) and has foaled 1 winner from 2 runners (0-1 with 2yos, 1-2 with sprinters).  The dam is a full sister to stakes-winning router Strategy (4-16, 220K, 0-1 sprinting) and is a half-sister to stakes-winning turfer Consequence (2-15, 221K, 1-3 at two, 0-3 sprinting).  Trainer Ian Wilkes is 2-16 (13%, $2.31 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles adding Lasix in maiden special weight dirt sprints (0-3 at Saratoga). No match for Invocation in debut, but barn is known for giving them a race before they are fully cranked.

6. HIERRO (Hard Spun - Brief Bliss, by Navarone, April 23, 2009 in Kentucky, $80,000 RNA yearling (Fasig-Tipton Select August 2010, $350,000 OBS Select March juvenile, Out Keeneland April juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.0 prior to the March auction). He is by a Grade 1 sprint winner (5-8, 324K, 3-3 at two, 4-4 sprinting) that is 2-21 (10%, $0.99 ROI) with juvenile debut runners from his first crop of 2011.  The dam was a juvenile Grade 3-placed router (1-10, 50K, 1-7 at two, 1-5 sprinting) and has foaled 5 winners from 5 runners (3-5 with 2yos, 2 debut winners, 3-5 with sprinters).  Hierro is a half-brother to multiple stakes-winner Cherokee Triangle (5-25, 330K, 2-6 at two, won debut, 0-1 sprinting) and stakes-placed sprinter Sam's Bliss (2-8, 94K, 1-2 at two, 1-6 sprinting). This is the female family of British juvenile turf winner At Risk (2-6, 27K). The July 6, July 19 workouts went .03 slower than trainer Steve Asmussen's 3-year-old filly Keiko (finished fourth in career debut on July 27 with 53 Beyer).  The July 12 workout matches Asmussen's juvenile filly Glinda the Good (finished eighth in career debut on turf on August 5 with 47 Beyer). The July 19 workout went .02 slower than Glinda the Good.  The July 26 workout matches Asmussen's juvenile Irbywood (54 Beyer). The August 17 workout went .01 faster than Asmussen's juvenile Officer Prado (finished first in maiden special weight on August 31 with 86 Beyer). The August 23 workout matches Officer Prado.  Asmussen is 58-388 (15%, $1.34 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (8-42, 19%, $1.77 ROI at Saratoga). Asmussen is 11-105 (10%, $1.16 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

1. ALPHA (Bernardini - Munnaya, by Nijinsky II, March 11, 2009 in Kentucky, Withdrawn Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (6-8, 3.0M, 0-1 sprinting) that is 8-51 (16%) with juvenile debut runners (7-47, 15%, $1.45 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 4 juvenile debut winners). The dam was a stakes-winner on turf in Europe (1-4, 25K, 0-1 at two) and has foaled 9 winners from 11 runners (2-7 with 2yos, 1-3 with sprinters).  Alpha is a half-brother to French stakes-placed turfer Yaya (2-9, 37K), multiple French Group 3-placed turfer Mystic Melody (2-11, 78K, 1-4 at two, won debut) and multiple Grade 2-placed turfer Lavender Sky (2-19, 195K, 1-2 at two). Alpha is a three-quarter brother to Dubai stakes-placed Numaany (9-34, 221K, 1-2 at two, 0-3 sprinting).  The dam is a half-sister to French juvenile stakes-winning turfer Sheer Reason (2-12, 105K, 2-6 at two) and French juvenile stakes-winning turfer Mall Queen (1-6, 29K). The July 31 workout went .03 faster than trainer Kiaran McLaughlin's 4-year-old Lethal Combination (finished ninth in $50,000 optional claimer on turf on September 1 with 75 Beyer; has 76 Racing Post Rating on synthetic in England). The August 13 workout matches McLaughlin's juvenile filly Street Surprise (finished fifth in career debut in $50,000 maiden claimer on September 1 with 29 Beyer). McLaughlin is 28-140 (20%, $1.75 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (7-46, 15%, $1.17 ROI at Saratoga). McLaughlin is 4-29 (13%, $1.20 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

8. A CAT THAT FLIES (Fusaichi Pegasus - Sweet Sarah, by Deputy Minister, February 20, 2009 in Kentucky, Withdrawn Keeneland September yearling) is by a Grade 1 route winner (6-9, 1.9M, 0-1 at two, 1-2 sprinting) that is 87-640 (14%) with juveniles.  The dam was unplaced (0-5, 2K, 0-5 at two, 0-2 sprinting) and has foaled 2 winners from 4 runners (0-3 with juveniles, 1-4 with sprinters).  A Cat That Flies is a full brother to stakes-placed router Amped (2-16, 122K, 0-1 at two, 0-1 sprinting).  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed turfer Krista's Quik Chic (2-14, 81K, 0-3 sprinting). Trainer Nick Zito is 12-38 32%, $2.19 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles in maiden special weight dirt sprints (1-12, 8%, $0.45 ROI at Saratoga). Not much in debut, but Zito is better second-out than with debut runners.

1a. NANDINO (Street Cry - Mama Nadine, by A.P. Indy, February 3, 2009 in Kentucky, $200,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (5-12, 5.1M, 1-5 at two, 1-3 sprinting) that is 11-102 (11%) with juvenile debut runners (2-18, 11%, $1.11 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 juvenile debut winner at this meet out of an A.P. Indy mare). The dam was a stakes-winning router (2-9, 88K, 0-2 at two, 0-1 sprinting) and this is her first starter. The second dam is multiple juvenile Grade 1 winner Countess Diana (7-14, 1.1M, 5-6 at two, won debut, 4-7 sprinting). Trainer Tom Albertrani is 6-63 (10%, $1.35 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (1-19, 5%, $2.32 ROI at Saratoga). Albertrani is 2-27 (7%, $1.16 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

Selections:
1, Go West
2. Africanist
3. Invocation

The Play:
Go West to Win and Place at 9-2 odds or greater.