09/02/2011 10:07PM

Saratoga: Spa Babies for Sept. 3, Race 2

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Welcome to Spa Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile contest at the meet and hope for a tidy profit.

In past years, I would list the stats for each horse before writing up my analysis, selections and wagering strategy. In order to streamline the content, this year's Spa Babies will showcase written analyses of each juvenile race. Each analysis will include relevant statistical information. Following the analysis, top three selections and wagering strategy will be provided.

Friday's results:
Race 2: Bay Park Boy scratched; second-choice The Prize Fighter finished third
Race 4: Royal Bonnie finished first
Race 5: Speightscity finished first

Saturday, September 3, 2011
Race 2
1 1/16 Miles (Turf)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-olds
Purse $51,000

Analysis:
6. DA VINCI (A.P. Indy - Friendly Michelle, by Artax, January 28, 2009 in Kentucky, $600,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (8-11, 2.9M, 3-4 at two) that is 44-380 (12%) with juvenile debut runners (5-28, 18%, $2.17 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 2 juvenile debut winners, 1 at this meet on grass, 1 older debut winner at this meet on grass) and 54-382 (14%) with first-turf runners.  The dam, a $77,000 yearling, was a Grade 1 sprint winner (5-12, 404K, 2-3 at two) and has foaled 0 winners from 1 runner (0-0 with 2yos, 0-1 with turfers). The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed Abba Gold (4-34, 179K, 1-3 at two, 0-2 on turf). The August 21 workout matches trainer Todd Pletcher's 3-year-old Clement Rock (88 turf Beyer). The August 27 workout matches Pletcher's juvenile Raconteur (finished second in maiden special weight on dirt on September 2). Pletcher is 7-66 (11%, $0.66 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf routes (5-32, 16%, $1.05 ROI at Saratoga). Pletcher is 24-98 (24%, $1.68 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

7. PUNCTUAL JEFF (More Than Ready - Floating Island, by A.P. Indy, February 2, 2009 in Kentucky, $230,000 Keeneland September yearling, Withdrawn Keeneland April juvenile) is by a Grade 1 sprint winner (7-17, 1.0M, 5-7 at two, won debut) that is 34-310 (11%) with juvenile debut runners (3-42, 7%, $0.52 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 juvenile debut winner, 1 older debut winner on grass) and 55-383 (14%) with first-turf winners.  The More Than Ready - A.P. Indy breeding 'nick' has produced Grade 2 turf winner Hungry Island (4-8, 216K, 0-3 at two, 4-8 on turf). The dam, a $170,000 yearling, was placed (0-6, 21K, 0-1 on turf) and has foaled 0 winners from 1 runner (0-0 with 2yos, 0-0 with turfers). The dam is a half-sister to British Group 3 turf winner Salmon Ladder (10-55, 309K, 0-2 at two, 10-41 on turf), stakes-winner Capote's Prospect (5-22, 132K, 2-3 at two, 2-9 on turf, first-turf winner) and multiple Grade 3 winner Pico Teneriffe (6-22, 538K, 2-6 at two, won debut, 5-18 on turf, first-turf winner). The July 19 workout matches trainer Chad Brown's juvenile Takemebaktoartemus (finished fifth in career debut on turf August 6 with 64 Beyer). The July 25 workout matches Brown's 4-year-old Day of Destiny (finished sixth in 'n3L' optional claimer on dirt on August 8 with 38 Beyer; has 86 Beyer on turf). The July 31 workout went .01 faster than Brown's 4-year-old filly Vee (finished second in $35,000 'n2L' claimer on turf on August 5 with 67 Beyer). The August 6 workout went .01 slower than Brown's 3-year-old Code of Conduct (86 turf Beyer). The August 12, August 26 workouts match Code of Conduct. Brown is 4-23 (17%, $2.17 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf routes (3-12, 25%, $3.31 ROI at Saratoga). Brown is 4-34 (11%, $1.64 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

1. APSE (Arch - In Reverence, by Alysheba, May 5, 2009 in Kentucky, Out Keeneland January short yearling, $50,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a Grade 1 route winner (5-7, 480K, 1-1 at two) that is 57-421 (14%) with juveniles and 160-1156 (14%) with turfers.  The Arch - Alysheba breeding 'nick' has produced multiple stakes-winner turf Arch Rebel (8-47 in Europe, 0-2 at two, 6-35 on turf). The dam, a $30,000 weanling, was stakes-placed on turf (3-11, 60K, 0-1 at two, 1-4 on turf) and has foaled 5 winners from 7 runners (0-5 with 2yos, 3-5 with turfers).  Apse is a half-brother to stakes-placed Revered Soldier (12-66, 174K, 0-5 at two, 1-9 on turf) and stakes-placed turfer Deputy Kris (3-9, 120K, 0-1 at two, 3-7 on turf). The dam is a half-sister to juvenile Grade 3 winner Hasty Pasty (13-66, 563K, 3-6 at two, 1-13 on turf), stakes-winning sprinter Dearest Desert (4-20, 79K, 0-2 on turf) and Grade 3 winner Cairo Express (8-38, 441K, 1-9 on turf). Trainer Mark Hennig is 0-13 over the past five years with second-time juveniles in maiden special weight turf routes (0-5 at Saratoga). Ran well in debut after going wide off slow pace.

13. ST MOOSE (Lemon Drop Kid - Lady Reiko, by Sadler's Wells, May 1, 2009 in Kentucky, $20,000 Keeneland September yearling, $50,000 Keeneland April juvenile) worked 2 furlongs in 21.4 prior to the April auction.  He is by a multiple Grade 1 winner (10-24, 3.2M, 2-6 at two) that is 16-173 (9%) with juvenile debut runners (4-48, 8%, $1.14 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 2 juvenile debut winners, 1 at this meet on turf) and 37-293 (13%) with first-turfers.  The Lemon Drop Kid - Sadler's Wells breeding 'nick' has produced British stakes-winning turfer Mad Rush (3-12, 402K, 3-12 on turf). The dam, a $100,000 yearling, was a stakes-winner (7-26, 303K, 1-1 at two, 4-15 on turf) and has foaled 4 winners from 6 runners (0-1 with 2yos, 3-6 with turfers, 1 first-turf winner).  St Moose is a half-brother to stakes-winner Chopper Won (4-17, 149K, 3-16 on turf, first-turf winner). The dam is a half-sister to Grade 1 route winner Willa On the Move (6-13, 442K, 1-1 at two), Grade 1-placed router Citidancer (3-4, 80K), multiple stakes-placed router Sweet Willa (1-13, 41K, 0-2 at two, 0-1 on turf) and multiple Grade 1 route winner Will's Way (6-13, 956K). Trainer Randall Granger is 0-6 over the past five years with all turf runners (0-2 at Saratoga). This is Granger's first debut runners in 2011.

4. O'PRADO AGAIN (El Prado - Leh She Run, by Pulpit, February 11, 2009 in Kentucky, $350,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by an Irish Group 1 turf winner at two (4-9, 236K, 4-6 at two, 4-9 on turf, first-turf winner) that is 142-967 (15%) with juveniles and 52-532 (10%) with first-turfers. The dam was unplaced (0-3) and has foaled 2 winners from 3 runners (1-2 with 2yos, 2-2 with turfers, 1 first-turf winner). The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winning sprinter Freddie Frisson (7-24, 263K, 0-1 on turf) and Grade 3 winner Sky Blue Pink (7-17, 300K, 0-1 on turf). Trainer Dale Romans is 2-13 (15%, $0.87 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles going dirt to turf and sprint to route in maiden special weight (0-6 at Saratoga). Finished ahead of next-out winner Sheriff Silverstar (41 Beyer on dirt at Ellis Park) after breaking poorly in sloppy Churchill Downs maiden.

8. SCANDALICIOUS (Giant's Causeway - Salty You, by Salt Lake, April 27, 2009 in Kentucky, $150,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Group 1 turf winner (9-13, 3.0M, 3-3 at two, 9-12 on turf, first-turf winner) that is 60-445 (13%) with juveniles and 38-361 (11%) with first-turf runners. The dam, a $55,000 yearling, was a Grade 1 winner at two (5-18, 332K, 2-4 at two, 3-12 on turf) and has foaled 2 winners from 4 runners (0-2 with 2yos, 1-3 with turfers). The dam is a half-sister to Grade 3-placed turfer Silent Crystal (2-12, 58K, 2-12 on turf) and stakes-winner Lone Star Deputy (4-19, 95K, 0-2 at two, 2-12 on turf, first-turf winner). Trainer Carlos Martin is 0-3 over the past five years with second-time juveniles going dirt to turf and sprint to route in maiden special weight.  Rallied for second behind runaway, gate-to-wire winner over speed-favoring track in debut.

2. GLORYLAND (Pulpit - Netherland, by Roy, February 6, 2009 in Kentucky, $130,000 RNA Keeneland September yearling, $150,000 juvenile Fasig-Tipton February juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 11.1 prior to the February auction).  He is by a multiple Grade 2 route winner (4-6, 728K) that is 38-302 (13%) with juvenile debut runners (4-32, 13%, $0.86 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 older debut winner on turf) and 37-348 (11%) with first-turfers.  The dam was a Group 1 winner in Argentina (6-21, 229K, 2-6 at two, 2-3 on turf, first-turf winner) and has foaled 2 winners from 2 runners (1-1 with 2yos, 1-2 with turfers).  Gloryland is a half-brother to French juvenile stakes-placed turfer Full Snow Moon (1-7, 65K, 1-6 at two, won on synthetic). Trainer Frank Alexander is 0-4 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf routes (0-1 at Saratoga). Alexander is 0-7 with all debut runners since January 1, 2010.

11. TODD COLE (Malibu Moon - Critical Cat, by Tactical Cat, March 28, 2009 in Kentucky, $120,000 RNA Fasig-Tipton Select August yearling, $90,000 Fasig-Tipton Select October yearling, $160,000 Keeneland April juvenile) worked 2 furlongs in 21.4 prior to the April auction).  He is by a juvenile sprint winner (1-2, 33K, 1-2 at two) that is 48-293 (16%) with juvenile debut runners (10-68, 15%, $1.50 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 6 juvenile debut winners, 1 on turf) and 28-292 (10%) with first-turfers.  The dam was a winner (2-10, 58K, 1-2 at two, 1-5 on turf, first-turf winner) and has foaled 0 winners from 1 runner (0-0 with 2yos, 0-1 with turfers). The dam is a half-sister to multiple Grade 1 winner Critical Eye (14-38, 1.0M, 1-3 at two, won debut, 2-6 on turf) and multiple stakes-placed Personable Pete (4-40, 245K, 2-3 at two, won debut, 0-1 on turf). Trainer Nick Zito is 0-3 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf routes (0-2 at Saratoga). Zito is 1-36 (3%, $0.42 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

5. KITTEN'S KID (Kitten's Joy - Madame Du Lac, by Lemon Drop Kid, April 29, 2009 in Kentucky, $6,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Grade 1 turf winner (9-14, 2.0M, 2-4 at two, 9-12 on turf, first-turf winner) that is 19-109 (17%) with juvenile debut runners (5-55, 9%, $1.67 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 juvenile debut winner, 1 older winner on turf) and 20-131 (15%) with first-turfers.  The dam, a $70,000 yearling, was unraced and this is her first foal.  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed turfer Krista's Quik Chic (2-14, 81K, 2-6 on turf, first-turf winner). The August 10, August 18 workouts match trainer Merrill Scherer's juvenile filly Gattino (finished sixth in career debut on dirt in $50,000 maiden claimer on September 1 with 29 Beyer). Scherer is 1-6 (17%, $17.23 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners on turf. Scherer is 1-20 (5%, $0.66 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

15. SILVER MAX (Badge of Silver - Kissin Rene, by Kissin Kris, March 8, 2009 in Kentucky, $20,000 Fasig-Tipton Summer July yearling) is by a multiple Grade 2 winner (7-16, 1.0M, 1-1 at two, 1-2 on turf, first-turf winner) that is 25-142 (18%) with juveniles and 4-33 (12%) with first-turfers. The dam was a sprint winner (1-6, 7K, 0-2 on turf) and has foaled 2 winners from 5 runners (1-3 with juveniles, 0-3). Silver Max is a half-brother to stakes-winner True Kiss (4-21, 115K, 1-2 at two, 0-2 on turf). The dam is a half-sister to Grade 3 winner Prince of the Mt. (10-51, 396K, 0-4 at two, 0-2 on turf) and stakes-placed sprinter Mt. Rene (2-8, 36K, 1-2 at two). Trainer Dale Romans is 2-13 (15%, $0.87 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles going dirt to turf and sprint to route in maiden special weight (0-6 at Saratoga). Took tons of betting action for career debut on dirt and ran on well for second.  These are tougher, however, and he'll have to avoid a wide trip if he breaks in from the also eligible list.

9. UR (Giant's Causeway - Sue's Last Dance, by Forty Niner, April 26, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a multiple Group 1 turf winner (9-13, 3.0M, 3-3 at two, 9-12 on turf) that is 60-445 (13%) with juveniles and 317-2066 (15%) with all turfers.  The dam was unraced and has foaled 7 winners from 10 runners (6-8 with juveniles, 1-4 with turfers in the United States).  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winning router Niigon (4-23, 1.0M, 0-3 at two, 0-4 on turf). Trainer Mark Shuman is 0-5 over the past five years with juveniles in maiden special weight turf routes (0-2 at Saratoga). Broke poorly in career debut against next-out stakes-winner Finale (won Continental Mile at Monmouth by over 10 lengths with 77 Beyer) and tackled a promising runner in Optimizer (finished second in the Grade 2 With Anticipation Stakes earlier in the week) in initial route effort.

10. WINSTON C (Corinthian - The Happy Hopper, by El Prado, January 15, 2009 in Kentucky, Out Keeneland November weanling, $75,000 RNA Keeneland September yearling) is by a Grade 1 route winner (6-12, 1.2M, 1-2 at two) that is 3-39 (8%) with juveniles and 0-5 with turfers from his first crop of 2011.  The dam, a $25,000 weanling and $72,000 yearling, was a multiple stakes-winner (12-38, 801K, 3-7 at two, 1-5 on turf) and has foaled 2 winners from 4 runners (0-2 with juveniles, 0-3 with turfers).  The second dam is juvenile stakes-winner Village Dancer (5-20, 193K, 2-5 at two, 2-8 on turf).  Trainer Bill Mott is 6-57 (11%, $1.65 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles in maiden special weight turf routes (2-16, 13%, $0.94 ROI at Saratoga).  Showed good works leading up to career debut and flashed high speed before understandably tiring late.  Looms a pace factor again for barn that does better second-out than with firsters.

14. VENTURA BAR (Officer - Ventura Hotel, by Grand Slam, January 24, 2009 in Kentucky, $8,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a juvenile Grade 1 route winner (6-9, 804K, 5-8 at two) that is 101-549 (18%) with juveniles and 45-425 (11%) with turfers. The dam was a sprint winner (1-6, 4K) and has foaled 2 winners from 3 runners (1-2 with juveniles, 0-2 with turfers). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winner Playinaround (13-33, 241K, 9-25 on turf) and multiple stakes-winning juvenile Playing 'n Gold (3-9, 150K, 3-9 at two). Trainer Ken McPeek is 1-1 (100%, $18.80 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles returning from 31-60 day layoffs and going dirt to turf and sprint to route while adding Lasix in maiden special weight.  Didn't have an easy trip in lone grass trip at Ellis Park and ran into Grade 1 Hopeful aspirant J C's Pride in lone start on dirt.

3. SUPER SATURDAY (Any Given Saturday - Lady Aloma, by Cozzene, May 5, 2009 in Kentucky, $75,000 Keeneland September yearling, Withdrawn OBS Spring April juvenile) is by a Grade 1 route winner (6-11, 1.0M, 2-3 at two, won debut) that is 1-12 (8%, $1.62 ROI) with juvenile debut runners and 1-3 (33%) with first-turf runners from his first crop of 2011.  The dam was a multiple stakes-winner (3-11, 110K, 2-6 on turf, first-turf winner) and has foaled 5 winners from 6 runners (0-2 with 2yos, 4-6 with turfers, 1 first-turf winner).  Super Saturday is a half-brother to stakes-winning turfer Karra Kul (8-36, 286K, 8-35 on turf), Grade 3 turf winner Chopinina (5-16, 613K, 5-15 on turf, first-turf winner) and Grade 3 winner Despite the Odds (4-17, 261K, 0-1 on turf). The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed Areydne (7-33, 273K, 1-3 at two, 0-4 on turf) and Grade 2 route winner Benburb (7-22, 1.1M, 0-6 at two, 0-4 on turf).  The July 2 workout matches trainer Michael Trombetta's 3-year-old filly Devil of a Woman (finished third in $10,000 maiden claimer on dirt at Penn National on July 8 with 28 Beyer; has 9 Beyer on synthetic). The July 9 workout matches Trombetta's 4-year-old filly Vanishing Grey (finished first in 'n2L' allowance over the Tapeta surface at Presque Isle Downs on July 27 with 78 Beyer). The July 9 workout matches Trombetta's 3-year-old filly Lady in the Park (finished first in a $12,500 maiden claimer over the Tapeta surface at Presque Isle Downs on July 20 with 59 Beyer). The July 16 workout matches Trombetta's juvenile Dehere of the Cat (finished first in career debut on dirt on July 24 with 70 Beyer).  The August 6 workout matches Trombetta's 3-year-old filly Purely Love (finished first in career debut on dirt in $50,000 maiden claimer on August 25 with 69 Beyer). The August 6 workout matches Trombetta's juvenile French Lieutenant (finished fourth in career debut over the Tapeta surface at Presque Isle Downs on August 24 with 34 Beyer).  The August 6 workout matches Trombetta's juvenile Yes He Did (finished fourth in the Continental Mile Stakes on turf on August 20 with 43 Beyer). Trombetta is 2-3 (67%, $6.46 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf routes.  Trombetta is 4-32 (13%, $1.73 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

12. CORINTHIAN'S JEWEL (Corinthian - Rhumb Line, by Mr. Greeley, March 23, 2009 in Kentucky, $130,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a Grade 1 route winner (6-12, 1.2M, 1-2 at two) that is 1-27 (4%, $0.11 ROI) with juvenile debut runners (won at this meet) and 0-4 with first-turfers from his first crop of 2011.  The dam, a $150,000 yearling and $150,000 juvenile, was a winner (3-9, 96K, 0-1 on turf) and has foaled 2 winners from 3 runners (2-3 with 2yos, 1-2 with turfers).  Corinthian's Jewel is a half-brother to Group 2-placed juvenile turfer Art Princess (1-11, 49K, 1-9 at two, 1-11 on turf) and Grade 1 winner Zazu (3-10, 532K, 1-4 at two). The third dam is stakes-winner Rosy Spectre (5-20, 91K, 0-1 at two, 3-7 on turf). The June 20 workout matches trainer George Weaver's juvenile Richmond County (0 Beyer on dirt). The July 1 workout matches Weaver's 3-year-old Fiddlers Padre (5 Beyer on turf). The July 11 workout matches Weaver's 4-year-old Top Yank (finished fifth in $16,000 'N2L' claimer at Belmont on July 16 with 63 Beyer). The August 13 workout matches Weaver's juvenile filly Star Vesta (finished third in career debut on dirt in $50,000 maiden claimer on September 1 with 52 Beyer). Weaver is 1-20 (5%, $0.93 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf routes (1-10, 10%, $1.86 ROI at Saratoga). Weaver is 5-28 (17%, $2.54 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

1a. YONDER 'TIS (Orientate - Four Once, by Grand Slam, April 16, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a multiple Grade 1 sprint winner (10-19, 1.7M, 0-2 at two, 8-11 sprinting) that is 96-646 (15%) with juveniles.  The dam, a $100,000 juvenile, was a route winner in the slop (1-9, 51K, 0-1 at two) and has foaled 0 winners from 2 runners (0-1 with 2yos, 0-1 with sprinters).  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winning juvenile Ells End (10-39, 238K, 3-9 at two, 4-18 sprinting), stakes-winning juvenile First Again (4-16, 182K, 2-5 at two, 1-4 sprinting) and multiple stakes-placed Ells Editor (7-53, 160K, 1-5 at two, 7-42 sprinting). Trainer Mark Hennig is 3-28 (11%, $2.26 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles in maiden special weight dirt sprints (1-11, 9%, $4.10 ROI at Saratoga). Rallied belatedly in career debut after breaking from inside post and can factor if this race is rained to the main track.

Selections:
1. Da Vinci
2. Punctual Jeff
3. Apse

The Play:
Da Vinci to Win at 2-1 odds or greater