09/02/2011 10:15PM

Saratoga: Spa Babies for Sept. 3, Race 12

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Welcome to Spa Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile contest at the meet and hope for a tidy profit.

In past years, I would list the stats for each horse before writing up my analysis, selections and wagering strategy. In order to streamline the content, this year's Spa Babies will showcase written analyses of each juvenile race. Each analysis will include relevant statistical information. Following the analysis, top three selections and wagering strategy will be provided.

Race 12
6 1/2 Furlongs
Maiden Special Weight (New York Breds)
2-year-olds
Purse $40,000

Analysis:
5. THINK I'M HOOKED (Hook and Ladder - Mighty Emy, by Mighty Adversary, May 19, 2009, $48,000 RNA Fasig-Tipton Spring May juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.2 prior to the May auction.  He is by a Grade 2 sprint winner (6-19, $388K, 1-1 at two, 6-18 sprinting) that is 43-374 (11%) with juveniles.  The dam was a juvenile stakes-winning sprinter (2-13, 42K, 2-7 at two, 2-9 sprinting) and has foaled 8 winners from 10 runners (1-8 with juveniles, 7-9 with sprinters). Think I'm Hooked is a half-brother to stakes-winning sprinter Mighty Eros (2-6, 95K, 2-6 sprinting).  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed Summer Lucky (5-46, 139K, 2-13 at two, 2-19 sprinting), multiple stakes-winner Mop Squeezer (6-26, 143K, 0-1 sprinting) and juvenile stakes-winning sprinter Jacksrbetter (2-6, 90K, 2-6 at two, 2-6 sprinting).  Trainer Gary Contessa is 6-28 (21%, $1.67 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles in statebred maiden special weight dirt sprints (1-5, 20%, $2.56 ROI at Saratoga). Dueled from the rail with eventual winner The Prize Fighter (returned to finish third in the Gold and Roses Stakes yesterday) before packing it in during the final eighth.  Should benefit from the effort and figures among the leaders once more.

10. SARATOGA SNACKS (Tale of the Cat - Near and Dear, by Red Ransom, March 6, 2009, $60,000 Fasig-Tipton Preferred August yearling) is by a Grade 2 sprint winner (5-9, 360K, 1-3 sprinting) that is 216-1150 (19%) with juveniles. The dam was a turf winner (3-9, 80K) and has foaled 2 winners from 3 runners (2-3 with 2yos, 1-2 with sprinters in North America). Saratoga Snacks is a half-brother to multiple Group 3-placed Rajman (4-15, 13K, 1-7 at two in Peru). The dam is a half-sister to juvenile stakes-placed sprinter Bond Arbitrage (5-23, 77K, 1-4 at two, 5-20 sprinting). Trainer Gary Sciacca is 1-4 (25%, $5.55 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles in statebred maiden special weight dirt sprints (1-2, 50%, $11.10 ROI at Saratoga). Took a ton of money for career debut and was easily second-best behind gate-to-wire winner over speed-favoring surface.  Looms the one to beat.

8. PARACHUTE CONEY (Badge of Silver - Queen of Valentine, by Storm Creek, April 10, 2009, $50,000 Keeneland January short yearling, $150,000 Fasig-Tipton Summer July yearling, Out Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Grade 2 winner (7-16, 1.0M, 1-1 at two, 3-5 sprinting) that is 6-51 (12%) with juvenile debut runners (6-37, 16%, $2.28 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 2 juvenile debut winners). The dam, a $95,000 weanling, was unraced and has foaled 2 winners from 2 runners (0-1 with 2yos, 1-2 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to multiple Grade 3 sprint winner Feline Story (5-17, 435K, 3-6 at two, won debut, 5-16 sprinting). Trainer Todd Pletcher is 15-24 (63%, $4.31 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in statebred maiden special weight dirt sprints (6-11, 55%, $3.84 ROI at Saratoga). Pletcher is 24-98 (24%, $1.68 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

12. THERE GOES VINNY (Western Pride - Super Deelites, by Afternoon Deelites, February 27, 2009, $8,000 OBS Open August yearling, $46,000 RNA juvenile OBS Spring April juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 11.1 prior to the April auction.  He is by a multiple Grade 2 winner (10-32, 1.2M, 1-6 at two, 1-9 sprinting) that is 0-20 with juvenile debut runners.  The dam was unplaced (0-5, 2K, 0-1 sprinting) and this is her first starter. The dam is a half-sister to multiple Grade 3 winner Atlantic Ocean (5-19, 678K, 3-8 at two, 1-5 sprinting). The August 27 workout matches trainer Eddie Barker's 3-year-old Johardy (63 Beyer on synthetic). Trainer Eddie Barker is 1-2 (50%, $11.10 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles on dirt.  Barker is 1-29 (3%, $0.23 ROI) with all debut runners since January 1, 2001.

6. CYBERTRON (Whywhywhy - Victory's Sister, by Cryptoclearance, April 15, 2009) is by a juvenile Grade 1 sprint winner (3-9, 315K, 3-5 at two, 2-6 sprinting) that is 44-410 (11%) with juveniles. The dam, a $20,000 yearling, was placed routing (0-10, 23K, 0-2 sprinting) and has foaled 1 winner from 3 runners (0-3 with 2yos, 0-3 with sprinters). This is the female family of Grade 2 winner Miss Indy Anna (7-10, 349K, 5-8 sprinting) and Grade 2 sprint winner Time Limit (5-13, 379K, 3-8 at two, 5-6 sprinting). Trainer Phil Serpe is 4-21 (19%, $4.74 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles in statebred maiden special weight dirt sprints (3-11, 27%, $8.43 ROI at Saratoga). Improved in the mud second-time out, but remains very, very green.

9. LIVE FOR TODAY (Mineshaft - Zip, by Danzig, April 14, 2009, $22,000 RNA Fasig-Tipton Select October yearling) is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (10-18, 2.2M) that is 6-119 (5%) with juvenile debut runners (1-35, 3%, $2.71 ROI with all debut runners in 2011).  The Mineshaft - Danzig breeding 'nick' has produced multiple stakes-placed sprinter Philippe (2-11, 90K, 1-4 at two, 2-11 sprinting). The dam, an $850,000 yearling, was a sprint winner (2-4, 30K, 1-1 at two, 2-4 sprinting) and has foaled 1 winner from 5 runners (0-2 with 2yos, 0-4 with sprinters).  The dam is a full sister to Grade 3-placed Hidden Truth (3-9, 123K, 0-1 sprinting). The June 28 workout went .01 slower than trainer Dominick Schettino's juvenile filly Motion Lounge (finished first in career debut on August 21 with 53 Beyer). The July 16, July 27 workouts match Motion Lounge. The August 12 workout went .01 faster than Motion Lounge.  The August 12 workout went .01 faster than Schettino's juvenile filly My Jopia (finished third in career debut in $50,000 maiden claimer on August 19 with 55 Beyer). The August 12 workout went .03 faster than Schettino's juvenile filly Alwaysinmycircle (finished eighth in career debut on August 21 with 14 Beyer). Schettino is 1-7 (14%, $5.42 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in statebred maiden special weight dirt sprints (1-2, 50%, $19.00 ROI at Saratoga). Schettino is 10-84 (11%, $2.01 ROI) with all debut runners since January 1, 2008.

2. WILD EXPLOIT (Wild Desert - Exploited Kris, by Exploit, April 5, 2009) is by a stakes-winning router (3-20, 1.0M, 2-8 at two, 0-1 sprinting) that is 1-15 (7%) with juveniles from his first crop of 2011.  The dam, a $1,200 yearling, was unplaced (0-4, 0-3 at two, 0-4 sprinting) and this is her first starter.  The dam is a half-sister to Grade 2-placed Ra Der Dean (8-57, 213K, 2-28 sprinting), stakes-placed Calamity Girl (3-15, 102K, 2-7 sprinting) and stakes-winning sprinter Herecomeshollywood (5-13, 190K, 5-12 sprinting). Trainer Mark Hennig is 1-7 (14%, $1.80 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles in statebred maiden special weight dirt sprints (0-5 at Saratoga). Passed some tired ones late in debut, but must improve here.

3. DOWN BROADWAY (Grand Slam - Morning Sun, by Dehere, April 23, 2009, $30,000 Fasig-Tipton Preferred August yearling, Withdrawn OBS Select March juvenile, $90,000 Fasig-Tipton Spring May juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.3 prior to the May auction.  He is by a multiple juvenile Grade 1 winner (4-15, 971K, 3-5 at two, 1-4 sprinting) that is 182-1061 (17%) with juveniles.  The dam, a $15,000 juvenile, was a multiple stakes-winning juvenile (3-19, 138K, 3-8 at two, 2-6 sprinting) and has foaled 4 winners from 6 runners (1-4 with juveniles, 3-6 with sprinters).  Down Broadway is a half-brother to stakes-winner Lauren's Tizzy (4-23, 198K, 1-3 at two, 2-5 sprinting). The second dam is British stakes-placed turfer Grand Blush (2-16, 21K, 0-4 at two). Trainer Billy Badgett is 1-5 (20%, $2.52 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles in statebred maiden special weight dirt sprints (0-2 at Saratoga). Rallied nicely to finish third in race that has produced several next-out winners.  Not out of this.

1. THEWIZARDOFNASSAU (Tiznow - Worth Fighting For, by Broken Vow, February 23, 2009) is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (8-15, 6.4M, 0-1 sprinting) that is 77-510 (15%) with juveniles.  The dam was a juvenile sprint winner (1-9, 25K, 1-6 at two, 1-7 sprinting) and this is her first starter. The dam is a half-sister to Grade 3 winner Daylight Savings (8-34, 461K, 0-1 sprinting).  Trainer Jimmy Jerkens is 0-1 over the past five years with second-time juveniles adding blinkers and going turf to dirt in maiden special weight sprints.  Finished evenly on grass, but adds blinkers and may show better speed from the inside post.

7. COALITION (Patriot Act - Promises Promises, by Dixie Union, April 24, 2009, Withdrawn Keeneland September yearling) is the first starter by a stakes-winner (4-19, 452K, 0-4 at two, 1-6 sprinting). The dam was placed sprinting at two (0-1, 8K, 0-1 at two, 0-1 sprinting) and has foaled 1 winner from 1 runner (0-1 with 2yos, 1-1 with sprinters). The dam is a three-quarter sister to stakes-winner Swear by Dixie (3-8, 186K, 1-2 at two, 2-4 sprinting). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winning router Queen's Word (3-16, 196K, 0-2 at two, 0-2 sprinting). Trainer Shug McGaughey is 0-1 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in statebred maiden special weight dirt sprints. McGaughey is 1-17 (5%, $2.46 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

11. POTUS (Political Force - Alie's Dolly, by Put It Back, February 16, 2009, $65,000 Fasig-Tipton Preferred August yearling) is by a Grade 1 route winner (4-17, 607K, 1-5 at two, 1-7 sprinting) that is 2-12 (17%, $2.12 ROI) with juvenile debut runners from his first crop of 2011.  The dam, a $20,000 short yearling, was a winner (3-36, 60K, 0-1 at two, 1-17 sprinting) and this is her first starter. The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed Dolly's Fortune (5-37, 177K, 1-5 at two, 5-29 sprinting). Trainer Bruce Levine is 0-25 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in statebred maiden special weight dirt sprints (0-10 at Saratoga). Levine is 8-178 (4%, $0.74 ROI) with all debut runners since January 1, 2007.

4. TAX RETURN (Friendly Island - Tax Considerations, by Yes It's True, March 14, 2009) is by a Grade 2 sprint winner (8-19, 1.3M, 8-18 sprinting) that is 1-2 (50%, $4.80 ROI) with juvenile debut runners from his first crop of 2011 (winner at this meet). The dam, a $170,000 yearling, was a winner (5-39, 183K, 1-4 at two, 3-22 sprinting) and this is her first starter. This is the female family of multiple Grade 1 route winner Bold Forbes (8-13, 501K, 2-3 at two). Trainer Charlton Baker is 0-6 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in statebred maiden special weight dirt sprints (0-2 at Saratoga). Baker is 2-31 (6%, $0.39 ROI) with all debut runners since January 1, 2010.

Selections:
1. Think I'm Hooked
2. Saratoga Snacks
3. Parachute Coney

The Play:
Think I'm Hooked to Win at 7-2 odds or greater

* Meet record based on starts, wins, top pick (after scratches) in the money, and profit/loss of that day's play ($2 wager, scheduled surface only): 73-15-35 (-$25.30)