09/01/2011 8:50PM

Saratoga: Spa Babies for Sept. 2, Race 5

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Welcome to Spa Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile contest at the meet and hope for a tidy profit.

In past years, I would list the stats for each horse before writing up my analysis, selections and wagering strategy. In order to streamline the content, this year's Spa Babies will showcase written analyses of each juvenile race. Each analysis will include relevant statistical information. Following the analysis, top three selections and wagering strategy will be provided.

Race 5
1 1/8 Miles
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-olds
Purse $51,000

Analysis:
6. SPEIGHTSCITY (Speightstown - My American Girl, by Quiet American, April 22, 2009 in Kentucky, $65,000 Keeneland September yearling, Withdrawn Fasig-Tipton February juvenile, Withdrawn OBS Select March juvenile, $49,000 RNA Fasig-Tipton Spring May juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.3 prior to the May auction.  He is by a Grade 1 sprint winner (10-16, 1.2M, 0-1 at two, 0-1 routing) that is 59-334 (18%) with juveniles.  The dam, a $21,000 yearling, was multiple stakes-placed (2-16, 42K, 1-12 at two, 1-5 routing) and has foaled 3 winners from 4 runners (1-3 with juveniles, 1-1 with routers).  Speightscity is a half-brother to stakes-winning juvenile My Royal Girl (7-31, 63K, 2-5 at two). The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Lucinda (5-19, 109K, 2-4 at two, 1-6 routing) and stakes-placed sprinter Smokin Bee (1-9, 31K, 0-3 at two, 0-3 routing).  Trainer Gary Contessa is 1-6 (17%, $0.96 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles going turf to dirt in maiden special weight route.  Took money for career debut on dirt, but failed to make an impression.  Still, he should benefit from that two-turn effort.

5. POLITICALLYCORRECT (Kitten's Joy - Exceedexpectations, by Tale of the Cat, May 14, 2009 in Kentucky, Withdrawn Fasig-Tipton Spring May juvenile) is by a multiple Grade 1 turf winner (9-14, 2.0M, 2-4 at two, 0-1 routing) that is 59-306 (19%) with juveniles. The dam was a sprint winner (2-13, 68K, 0-1 routing) and this is her first starter. This is the female family of Grade 2 juvenile winner Big Sur (4-25, 323K, 2-8 at two, 1-12 routing). Trainer Wesley Ward is 0-4 over the past five years with second-time juveniles going turf to dirt (0-3 at Saratoga). Faltered after pressing the pace on grass six days ago and could be a forward factor switching to dirt.

1. MAORI (Even the Score - Karaka, by Storm Creek, March 31, 2009 in Kentucky, $17,000 RNA Fasig-Tipton October yearling) is by a multiple Grade 2 route winner (9-29, 751K, 5-11 routing) that is 29-241 (12%) with juveniles.  The dam was unraced and has foaled 1 winner from 3 runners (0-1 with 2yos, 1-1 with routers).  The dam is a half-sister to juvenile Grade 2 winner Dubleo (7-13, 422K, 6-9 at two). Trainer Michelle Nihei is 0-13 over the past five years with all runners going turf to dirt (0-3 at Saratoga). Didn't do much running in grass debut, but may be more aggressive adding blinkers.

4. OUR MIDNIGHT RUN (Mr. Greeley - Quiet Maggy, by Quiet American, January 25, 2009 in Kentucky, $220,000 Fasig-Tipton Select August yearling) is by a multiple Grade 3 sprint winner (5-16, 474K, 2-6 at two, 1-5 routing) that is 123-930 (13%) with juveniles. The dam was unraced and this is her first starter.  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winner Unforgettable Max (5-23, 384K, 2-2 at two, 3-14 routing), multiple Grade 1 winner Afleet Alex (8-12, 2.7M, 4-6 at two, 3-7 routing) and juvenile stakes-placed sprinter Stormin Maggy (1-7, 28K, 1-5 at two, 0-1 routing). Trainer Ken McPeek is 2-3 (67%, $6.93 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles going turf to dirt while adding Lasix (1-2, 50%, $7.90 ROI at Saratoga). The August 27 workout matches McPeek's juvenile Ventura Bar (61 Beyer on dirt). Didn't have an easy trip in career debut on grass and now adds Lasix for overdue barn.

8. DOCTORIOUS (Smart Strike - Dandanna, by Linamix, February 2, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a Grade 1 route winner (6-8, 337K, 4-5 routing) that is 150-860 (17%) with juvenile runners.  The dam was a juvenile winner on turf in England (1-1, 8K, 1-1 at two) and has foaled 2 winners from 5 runners (1-2 with juveniles, 0-3 with routers).  Doctorious is a half-brother to multiple British stakes-placed turfer Centaurus (2-14, 54K, 1-1 at two, 0-1 routing).  The dam is a half-sister to Group 2 turf winner Courteous (3-16, 349K, 1-2 at two) and British stakes-winner Scriptwriter (7-24, 175K, 0-2 at two).  Trainer Wayne Lukas is 0-6 over the past five years with juveniles returning from 31-60 day layoffs and going sprint to route in maiden special weights on dirt. Chased solid field sprinting on dirt here on July 30 (runner-up returned to graduate with 86 Beyer) and can be close to the fractions.

7. A SINGLE MAN (Bernardini - Kettleoneup, by Victory Gallop, May 7, 2009 in Kentucky, $240,000 Keeneland September yearling, Withdrawn Fasig-Tipton February juvenile) is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (6-8, 3.0M, 6-7 routing) that is 18-90 (20%) with juveniles. The dam was a multiple Grade 2 winner (6-19, 376K, 1-4 at two, 5-9 sprinting) and this is her first starter.  The dam was a Grade 2 route winner (7-21, 659K, 7-17 routing) and this is her first starter.  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed Golden Hare (29-68, 480K, 0-4 routing). Trainer Nick Zito is 0-1 over the past five years with second-time juveniles removing blinkers and going sprint to route in maiden special weight on dirt.  Nicely-bred colt is eligible to improve for barn that does better second-out.  Broke poorly against promising field in debut and is bred to appreciate added distance.

3. RACONTEUR (A.P. Indy - Miss Kate, by Storm Cat, March 31, 2009 in Kentucky, $300,000 RNA Keeneland September yearling, $240,000 Keeneland April juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.3 prior to the April auction. He is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (8-11, 2.9M, 3-4 at two, 7-9 routing) that is 164-993 (17%) with juveniles. The A.P. Indy - Storm Cat breeding 'nick' has produced stakes-placed router Hockley (3-13, 142K, 0-5 at two, 0-3 routing) and stakes-winning router Love and Pride (3-4, 98K, 3-4 routing). The dam was a stakes-placed router (4-17, 144K, 1-4 at two, 3-11 routing) and has foaled 3 winners from 4 runners (1-2 with juveniles, 0-1 with routers). Raconteur is a half-sister to stakes-winning turfer Katerbug (3-15, 119K, 2-4 at two). The dam is a half-sister to multiple Grade 1 winner Clear Mandate (10-31, 1.0M, 1-2 at two, 6-21 routing), Grade 2 winner Dream Scheme (8-27, 431K, 4-7 routing), stakes-placed Special Event (5-27, 111K, 3-16 routing), and multiple stakes-placed sprinter A Diehl (3-26, 221K, 0-1 at two, 0-2 routing).  Trainer Todd Pletcher is 16-45 (36%, $2.47 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles going sprint to route in maiden special weights on dirt.  Didn't break well in career debut as the chalk, but is bred to appreciate this longer distance.

2. WHY BROADWAY (Whywhywhy - Angry Reply, by Grand Slam, April 2, 2009 in Kentucky, $5,500 Keeneland September yearling) is by a juvenile Grade 1 winner (3-9, 315K, 3-5 at two, 1-3 routing) that is 44-410 (11%) with juveniles. The dam was unraced and has foaled 1 winner from 2 runners (0-1 with 2yos, 1-1 with routers). The dam is a half-sister to Grade 3 sprint winner Fortifier (6-28, 218K, 3-6 at two, 0-1 routing) and multiple stakes-winner Restage (5-12, 161K, 0-1 routing). Trainer Doodnauth Shivmangal is 1-2 (50%, $16.80 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles adding blinkers on dirt. May attempt to show more early speed stretching out with blinkers.

Selections:
1. Speightscity
2. Politicallycorrect
3. Maori

The Play:
Speightscity to Win at 5-2 odds or greater.

* Meet record based on starts, wins, top pick (after scratches) in the money, and profit/loss of that day's play ($2 wager, scheduled surface only): 70-13-32 (-$50.90)