09/01/2011 8:48PM

Saratoga: Spa Babies for Sept. 2, Race 4

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Welcome to Spa Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile contest at the meet and hope for a tidy profit.

In past years, I would list the stats for each horse before writing up my analysis, selections and wagering strategy. In order to streamline the content, this year's Spa Babies will showcase written analyses of each juvenile race. Each analysis will include relevant statistical information. Following the analysis, top three selections and wagering strategy will be provided.

Race 4
1 1/16 Miles (Turf)
Maiden Special Weight (New York Breds)
2-year-old fillies
Purse $41,000

Analysis:
5. ROYAL BONNIE (Yankee Gentleman - Royal Muskoka, by Theatrical, March 29, 2009, $22,000 Fasig-Tipton Preferred August yearling, $38,000 RNA OBS Spring April juvenile) worked 2 furlongs in 22.1 prior to the April auction.  She is by a stakes-winner (4-10, 202K, 0-1 on turf) that is 17-126 (13%) with juvenile debut runners (2-29, 7%, $1.39 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 2 juvenile debut winners) and 9-83 (11%) with first-turfers. The dam, a $120,000 yearling, was unraced and has foaled 1 winner from 3 runners (0-1 with 2yos, 1-2 with turfers). The dam is a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Malibu Mint (7-25, 723K, 0-3 on turf).  Trainer George Weaver is 1-5 (20%, $3.72 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in statebred maiden special weight dirt routes (1-2, 50%, $9.30 ROI at Saratoga). Weaver is 4-27 (14%, $2.07 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

2. STOCK FUND (Stonesider - Stock Tip, by Thunder Gulch, February 4, 2009) is by a juvenile sprint winner (1-1, 25K, 1-1 at two) that is 1-23 (4%) with juveniles and 0-1 with turfers from his first crop of 2011. The dam, a $200,000 yearling, was a turf winner (1-5, 31K, 0-1 at two, 1-4 on turf) and has foaled 1 winner from 2 runners (0-1 with juveniles, 0-2 with turfers). This is the female family of Grade 1 winners Upper Nile (6-19, 186K, 2-6 at two) and De La Rose (11-26, 544K, 3-8 at two). Trainer Carlos Martin is 0-1 over the past five years with juveniles returning from 1-7 day layoffs and going dirt to turf and sprint to route in statebred maiden special weight. Ran on well in career debut on grass after being shuffled back slightly from the inside.  Wheels back on short notice and is capable of a good ground-saving trip.

8. LADYWELL COURT (Powerscourt - Commander's Lady, by Deputy Commander, March 14, 2009) is by a multiple Grade/Group 1 turf winner (5-21, 1.9M, 1-4 at two, 5-21 on turf) that is 10-96 (10% with juveniles and 15-174 (9%) with turfers. The dam, a $40,000 yearling, was stakes-placed on turf (2-15, 112K, 0-2 at two, 1-14 on turf) and has foaled 1 winner from 2 runners (0-2 with juveniles, 0-2 with turfers). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winner Command Start (6-24, 112K, 0-1 at two, 0-1 on turf), juvenile stakes-winner Rare Deputy (7-78, 109K, 2-4 at two, 0-1 on turf), stakes-placed Beshairt (5-19, 107K, 0-1 on turf), stakes-placed Cinnamon Force (0-8, 10K) and multiple stakes-winner Golden Stripe (7-20, 191K).  Trainer Phil Serpe is 0-7 over the past five years with second-time juveniles going sprint to route in statebred maiden special weights on turf (0-6 at Saratoga). Broke poorly in career debut and was far back while saving ground.  Finished evenly but changed back to wrong racing lead late.

10. PROUD AND CHARMING (Proud Citizen - Dynamism, by Dynaformer, May 9, 2009, $40,000 Fasig-Tipton Preferred) is by a Grade 2 route winner (3-16, 638K, 1-4 at two) that is 62-436 (14%) with juveniles and 12-118 (10%) with first-turfers. The dam, a $20,000 yearling, was placed on turf (0-4, 3K, 0-4 on turf) and has foaled 0 runners from 4 runners (0-1 with 2yos, 0-1 with turfers). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winner Pepita Ramoje (8-23, 259K, 0-2 at two, 0-1 on turf) and Grade 2-placed turfer Kappa King (4-14, 194K, 4-13 on turf).  Trainer Mark Hennig is 0-2 over the past five years with juveniles going dirt to turf and sprint to route in statebred maiden special weight (0-1 at Saratoga). No match for runaway winner last time, but has been legged up following two sprints and has some turf pedigree.

7. WHO'S ZAT GIRL (E Dubai - Beauty Bug, by A.P. Indy, March 10, 2009, $32,000 New York Mixed October weanling) is by a multiple Grade 2 router (5-11, 920K, 1-2 at two, won debut) that is 26-158 (16%) with juvenile debut runners (7-46, 15%, $2.32 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011, 5 juvenile debut winners, 1 on turf) and 21-156 (13%) with first-turfers.  The dam was unplaced (0-4) and has foaled 1 winner from 2 runners (0-1 with 2yos, 1-1 with turfers). The dam is a half-sister to juvenile Grade 3-placed sprinter Aggie Southpaw (3-25, 139K, 1-4 at two, won debut, 0-4 on turf). Trainer Linda Rice is 1-10 (10%, $1.08 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in statebred maiden special weight turf routes (1-9, 11%, $1.20 ROI at Saratoga). Rice is 3-42 (7%, $0.81 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

9. LANDLUBBER (Kitten's Joy - Suncoast Parkway, by Quiet American, March 5, 2009, Out OBS Spring April juvenile) is by a multiple Grade 1 turf winner (9-14, 2.0M, 2-4 at two, 9-12 on turf, first-turf winner) that is 59-306 (19%) with juveniles and 20-131 (15%) with first-turfers.  The dam was placed on turf (0-5, 27K, 0-3 on turf) and has foaled 1 winner from 2 runners (0-1 with 2yos, 0-0 with turfers). The dam is a half-sister to Grade 3 sprinter Top Commander (7-34, 246K, 2-11 on turf). The dam is a full sister to multiple stakes-placed State Power (7-28, 193K, 1-3 on turf). Trainer Michael Maker is 2-3 (67%, $3.53 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles going dirt to turf and sprint to route in maiden special weight (1-1, 100%, $6.20 ROI at Saratoga).  Tackled Harbor Mist in career debut and that one returned to take the Ann Clare Stakes on dirt yesterday afternoon.

3. JOY RISING (El Nino - Mary's Special, by Atticus, February 23, 2009, $25,000 OBS Spring April juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.1 prior to the April auction. She is by a Grade 2-placed sprinter (3-15, 153K, 0-3 at two, 0-1 on turf) that is 1-9 (11%) with juveniles and 0-0 with first-turfers from his first crop of 2011. The dam, a $32,000 yearling, was a turf winner (3-15, 26K, 3-7 on turf) and this is her first starter. The dam is a half-sister to juvenile Grade 3 winner Special Broad (5-25, 263K, 3-7 at two, 0-2 on turf) and multiple stakes-winner Beware Avalanche (20-82, 529K, 1-6 at two, 3-12 on turf). Trainer Linda Rice is 0-2 over the past five years with second-time juveniles going dirt to turf and sprint to route in statebred maiden special weight (0-1 at Saratoga). Took money in career debut and showed brief speed before tiring badly.  Looms a forward factor once more.

11. DESERT BLISS (Utopia - Desert Deed, by Exploit, April 20, 2009) is by a multiple Grade 1 winner in Japan (9-34, 4.9M, 3-4 at two, 2-3 at two, 0-8 on turf) that is 2-26 (8%) with juveniles and 0-4 with turfers from his first crop of 2011.  The dam, an $80,000 yearling, was a turf winner (1-8, 29K, 0-2 at two, 1-6 on turf) and has foaled 1 winner from 3 runners (0-2 with 2yos, 1-2 with turfers). The dam is a half-sister to multiple Grade 2 winner Sir Cat (7-14, 401K, 2-4 at two, 2-5 on turf). Trainer Kimberly DePasquale is 0-7 over the past five years with juveniles on turf.  Easily second-best in second start over Colonial sod, but is mired in a difficult post.

6. HLAO ROO (Utopia - Classic Example, by Maria's Mon, April 13, 2009) is by a multiple Grade 1 winner in Japan (9-34, 4.9M, 3-4 at two, 2-3 at two, 0-8 on turf) that is 2-26 (8%) with juveniles and 0-2 with first-turfers from his first crop of 2011.  The dam, a $32,000 weanling and $75,000 yearling, was a winner (7-44, 203K, 1-1 at two, 0-3 on turf) and this is her first starter. The third dam is multiple stakes-placed Good Intentions (11-33, 107K). The August 12, August 16 workouts match trainer Niall Saville's 3-year-old filly Rockabella Song (36 Beyer on turf, 40 on dirt).  Saville is 0-1 over the past five years with second-time juveniles going dirt to turf.  Didn't do much running on dirt when facing next-out turf graduate Lady's Tale (69 Beyer in $75,000 maiden claimer at Monmouth).

4. ARIZONA TAMMY (Sunriver - Liege, by Theatrical, May 13, 2009) is by a Grade 1 turf winner (6-17, 816K, 1-2 at two, 3-6 on turf, first-turf winner) that is 1-3 (33%, $3.00 ROI) with juvenile debut runners and 0-1 with first-turfers from his first crop of 2011. The dam, a $60,000 yearling, was a turf winner (1-8, 19K, 1-8 on turf) and has foaled 2 winners from 3 runners (1-1 with 2yos, 0-2 with turfers). The second dam is stakes-winner Demonry (4-14, 69K, 2-5 at two, 2-10 on turf, first-turf winner). The August 18, August 26 workouts match trainer Eric Reed's juvenile filly Princess Phoebe (finished first in maiden special weight on dirt on August 29 with 44 Beyer).  Reed is 2-9 (22%, $6.31 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf routes. Reed is 7-52 (13%, $1.25 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

1. SKINNYDIPPER (Friends Lake - Stolen Star, by Cat Thief, February 7, 2009) is by a Grade 1 route winner (3-7, 696K, 2-3 at two) that is 13-115 (11%) with juvenile debut runners (4-40, 10%, $2.68 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 juvenile debut winner) and 1-65 (2%) with first-turf runners. The dam was multiple stakes-placed (3-21, 210K, 1-2 at two, 0-1 on turf) and this is her first starter.  The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Friend Or Foe (5-9, 333K).  Trainer Ramon Hernandez is 0-1 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners on turf (0-1 at Saratoga).  Hernandez is 1-44 (2%, $0.47 ROI) with all debut runners since January 1, 2006.

1a. BERNING CARBS (Bernardini - Carmandia, by Wild Rush, February 20, 2009) is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (6-8, 3.0M) that is 18-90 (20%) with juveniles. The dam was a multiple Grade 2 winner (6-19, 376K, 1-4 at two, 5-9 sprinting) and this is her first starter. The third dam is stakes-placed sprinter Rare Review (3-12, 54K, 0-4 at two, 3-12 sprinting).  Trainer Tom Albertrani is 0-1 over the past five years with second-time juveniles adding Lasix in statebred maiden special weight dirt sprints (0-1 at Saratoga). Adds Lasix and should prove tough if this race is switched to the main track.

Selections:
1. Royal Bonnie
2. Stock Fund
3. Ladywell Court

The Play:
Royal Bonnie to Win and Place at 4-1 odds or greater.