09/01/2011 9:09AM

Saratoga: Spa Babies for Sept. 1, Race 11

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Welcome to Spa Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile contest at the meet and hope for a tidy profit.

In past years, I would list the stats for each horse before writing up my analysis, selections and wagering strategy. In order to streamline the content, this year's Spa Babies will showcase written analyses of each juvenile race. Each analysis will include relevant statistical information. Following the analysis, top three selections and wagering strategy will be provided.

Race 11
5 1/2 Furlongs (Turf)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-old fillies
Purse $50,000

Analysis:

5. CONSTANTINOPLE (Istan - Silver Comic, by Silver Hawk, February 14, 2009, Withdrawn Fasig-Tipton Fall November weanling, Withdrawn Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Grade 3 winner (9-21, 461K, 1-2 at two, won debut, 3-8 on turf, first-turf winner) that is 0-9 with juvenile debut runners and 0-3 with first-turfers from his first crop of 2011. The dam was a Grade 2 turf winner (4-9, 216K, 4-8 on turf, first-turf winner) and has foaled 2 winners from 6 runners (2-4 with 2yos, 1 debut winner, 2-4 with turfers, 2 first-turf winners).  Constantinople is a half-sister to Grade 3 winner Silver Reunion (5-10, 254K, 1-2 at two, 2-4 on turf, first-turf winner). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winning router Akiba (3-17, 75K, 2-3 at two, won debut, 0-4 on turf), British Group 3 turf winner Lucayan Prince (6-38, 400K, 1-2 at two, won debut, 4-26 on turf, first-turf winner) and multiple Grade 3 winner Comic Strip (10-23, 967K, 2-5 at two, 5-11 on turf, first-turf winner). The August 13 workout matches trainer Graham Motion's 5-year-old mare Minute Limit (96 turf Beyer).  The August 20 workout matches Motion's 3-year-old Clearance Sale (58 Beyer on dirt). Motion is 4-23 (17%, $1.66 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf sprints (2-3, 67%, $9.73 ROI at Saratoga). Motion is 3-31 (9%, $1.46 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

1. ROCK ON HOME (Rock Hard Ten - Escape From Home, by Came Home, March 23, 2009 in Pennsylvania, $13,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Grade 1 winner (7-11, 1.8M) that is 7-52 (13%) with juvenile debut runners (6-37, 16%, $2.78 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 juvenile debut winner, 3 older winners on turf) and 15-90 (17%) with first-turfers. The dam was placed sprinting (0-8, 10K, 0-2 at two, 0-3 on turf) and this is her first starter.  The dam is a half-sister to multiple Grade 3 turf winner Sweetest Thing (6-13, 857K, 6-13 on turf, first-turf winner) and stakes-placed Bold Thing (4-38, 230K, 0-5 at two, 3-16 on turf). The July 3 workout went .01 faster than trainer David Donk's 3-year-old filly Speedy's Gal (finished third in $50,000 starter allowance on grass at Belmont on July 7 with 74 Beyer).  The July 14 went .01 slower than Donk's 6-year-old Smart Enuf (finished ninth in $20,000 beaten claimer on turf on August 11 with 45 Beyer).  The July 26 workout went .01 faster than Donk's 5-year-old mare Strike the Bell (finished third in the Smart N Fancy Stakes on turf on August 1 with 87 Beyer).  The July 31 workout matches Speedy's Gal (finished sixth in 'n1x' allowance on turf on August 3 with 71 Beyer).  The August 21 workout matches Strike the Bell (finished seventh in the Grade 2 Ballston Spa Stakes on turf on August 27 with 85 Beyer).  The August 26 workout matches Donk's 3-year-old Canaveral (80 turf Beyer). Donk is 0-16 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf sprints (0-2 at Saratoga). Donk is 8-189 (4%, $1.34 ROI) with all debut runners since January 1, 2003.

8. INNY MINNIE (Hard Spun - Inny River, by Seattle Slew, February 4, 2009 in Kentucky, $210,000 RNA Fasig-Tipton Select August yearling, Withdrawn OBS Select March juvenile, $240,000 Keeneland April juvenile) worked 2 furlongs in 21.2 prior to the April auction.  She is by a Grade 1 sprint winner (7-13, 2.6M, 3-3 at two) that is 6-37 (16%) with juveniles and 3-10 (30%) with turf runners from his first crop of 2011.  The dam, a $330,000 yearling, was placed sprinting (0-4, 10K) and has foaled 6 winners from 9 runners (3-7 with juveniles, 3-8 with turfers).  Inny Minnie is a half-sister to Group 2 turf winner Montgomery's Arch (3-11, 228K, 2-4 at two, 3-11 on turf) and juvenile stakes-winner Welcome Inn (3-12, 137K, 3-8 at two, 0-1 on turf).  The dam is a half-sister to multiple Grade 3 winner Lotus Pool (11-43, 698K, 9-36 on turf), multiple Grade 1-placed router Golden Larch (11-46, 604K, 1-1 at two, 0-2 on turf), stakes-placed Tru Story (4-44, 131K, 1-4 at two, 0-1 on turf), Grade 3-placed juvenile router Honour a Bull (3-18, 92K, 1-4 at two, 0-4 on turf) and Grade 3-placed router Golden Glen (11-60, 423K, 0-5 at two, 1-11 on turf).  Trainer Steve Margolis is 1-5 (20%, $0.80 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles in maiden special weight turf sprints. Enjoyed a good ground-saving trip in career debut before racing a bit greenly in the stretch.  Capable of improvement with that run under her belt.

2. RUN A RISK (Distorted Humor - Commodities, by Private Account, February 13, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a multiple Grade 2 sprint winner (8-23, 769K) that is 151-867 (17%) with juveniles and 34-377 (9%) with first-turfers. The dam, a $305,000 yearling, was a winner (2-6, 59K, 1-2 on turf) and has foaled 3 winners from 6 runners (1-3 with juveniles, 3-4 with turfers, 1 first-turf winner). Run a Risk is a half-sister to multiple Grade 3 winner Rey de Cafe (4-13, 302K, 2-6 at two, 3-9 on turf), stakes-winner Tricky Causeway (7-38, 333K, 6-22 on turf, first-turf winner) and Grade 3 turfer El Crespo (2-24, 236K, 0-2 at two, 2-20 on turf). The dam is a half-sister to Grade 1-placed sprinter Western Expression (3-16, 140K, 0-1 on turf) and multiple Grade 2 turf winner King Cugat (7-16, 1.2M, 2-4 at two, 7-16 on turf, first-turf winner). The August 24 workout matches trainer Rusty Arnold's juvenile filly Smokin' Alice (29 Beyer on dirt). Arnold is 0-2 over the past five years with second-time juveniles going dirt to turf in maiden special weight sprint. Strong grass pedigree indicates she'll improve on the surface switch.

10. MILL BRANCH MILLIE (Pulpit - Peebles, by Gone West, February 19, 2009 in Kentucky, $15,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Grade 2 route winner (4-6, 728K) that is 38-302 (13%) with juvenile debut runners (4-31, 13%, $0.81 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 older winner on turf) and 37-348 (11%) with first-turfers.  The dam, a $500,000 weanling and $400,000 yearling, was placed sprinting (0-3, 6K, 0-1 on turf) and has foaled 1 winner from 1 runner (1-1 with 2yos, 1-1 with turfers, first-turf winner).  Mill Branch Millie is a half-sister to juvenile stakes-placed turfer Mesonic (1-5, 30K, 1-5 at two, 1-4 on turf, first-turf winner). The second dam is multiple stakes-winner Poetically (5-14, 561K, 4-6 at two, won debut, 0-1 on turf). Trainer Eddie Kenneally is 0-2 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf sprints.  Kenneally is 6-32 (18%, $1.54 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

11. SWEET CAT (Kitten's Joy - Claire's Smile, by Carson City, March 14, 2009 in Kentucky, $95,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Grade 1 turf winner (9-14, 2.0M, 2-4 at two, 9-12 on turf, first-turf winner) that is 59-306 (19%) with juveniles and 20-131 (15%) with first-turfers. The dam, a $165,000 yearling, was unraced and has foaled 2 winners from 4 runners (1-2 with juveniles, 0-2 with turfers). Sweet Cat is a half-sister to stakes-winner Loose Leaf (5-18, 231K, 2-6 at two, 0-3 on turf). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed router Draw It (1-5, 60K). The August 23 workout matches trainer Todd Pletcher's juvenile Bay Park Boy (88 Beyer on dirt).  The August 23 workout went .04 faster than Pletcher's juvenile filly Victory Island (81 dirt Beyer; entered in today's third race). Pletcher is 4-7 (57%, $5.47 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles going dirt to turf in maiden special weight sprints (0-1 at Saratoga). Showed good speed in his debut on dirt, is by a turf champion and could be the one to catch once again.

6. PEACE PRESERVER (War Front - Preserver, by Forty Niner, April 28, 2009 in Kentucky, $120,000 Keeneland September yearling, $75,000 OBS Select March juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.4 prior to the March auction.  She is by a Grade 2 sprint winner (4-13, 424K, 0-1 at two) that is 1-42 (2%) with juvenile debut runners (2-21, 10%, $0.73 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 juvenile debut winner on turf at this meet) and 6-31 (19%) with first-turfers.  The dam was placed sprinting (0-6, 5K, 0-4 at two) and has foaled 5 winners from 6 runners (0-3 with 2yos, 2-4 with turfers).  Peace Preserver is a half-sister to Grade 3-placed router Stake (5-23, 166K, 0-3 at two, 0-3 on turf), Grade 3-placed turfer My Rachel (3-13, 138K, 2-9 on turf) and stakes-placed Tequila Bound (4-27, 68K, 0-1 at two, 0-2 on turf). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winner Rail (15-71, 255K, 2-7 at two, won debut, 3-10 on turf).  The dam is a full sister to multiple Grade 2-placed juvenile Tourney (3-11, 119K, 1-5 at two, won debut). Trainer John Parisella is 13-84 (15%, $2.08 ROI) over the past five years with all turfers (3-16, 19%, $1.45 ROI at Saratoga).  Parisella is 0-7 with all debut runners since January 1, 2010.

12. MEMORIES MADE (Perfect Soul - Memories for Us, by Street Cry, April 3, 2009 in Kentucky, $12,000 Keeneland November weanling, $53,000 Fasig-Tipton October yearling) is by a Grade 1 turf winner (7-21, 1.5M, 7-21 on turf, first-turf winner) that is 8-72 (11%) with juvenile debut runners (2-29, 7%, $2.29 ROI with all debut runners, 1 juvenile debut winner, 1 older winner on turf) and 7-94 (7%) with first-turfers. The dam was unraced and has this is her first foal. The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winning turfer British Blue (6-29, 201K, 0-2 at two, 6-26 on turf), stakes-winning turfer War Trace (3-7, 86K, 0-1 at two, 3-5 on turf, first-turf winner), multiple Grade 2 turfer Winter Memories (5-7, 548K, 2-3 at two, won debut, 5-7 on turf, first-turf winner) and Grade 3-placed turfer La Cloche (3-13, 134K, 0-3 at two, 3-11 on turf). The August 8 workout matches trainer Ralph Nicks' 3-year-old filly Thunder Lilly (finished second in $50,000 maiden claimer on dirt on August 25 with 54 Beyer; has 64 Beyer on turf).  Trainer Ralph Nicks is 1-2 (50%, $7.80 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf sprints (1-1, 100%, $15.60 ROI at Saratoga).  Nicks is 3-26 (11%, $3.87 ROI) with all debut runners since January 1, 2010.

7. DOROTHY'S SPIRIT (Scat Daddy - Im Out First, by Allen's Prospect, April 29, 2009 in Kentucky, $120,000 Keeneland September yearling, Withdrawn OBS Select March juvenile) is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (5-9, 1.3M, 3-5 at two) that is 10-63 (16%) with juveniles and 5-13 (38%) with turf runners from his first crop of 2011.  The dam, a $26,000 weanling, was a multiple stakes-winner (10-56, 438K, 1-10 at two, 0-6 on turf) and has foaled 4 winners from 7 runners (1-5 with juveniles, 1-4 with turfers).  Dorothy's Spirit is a half-sister to multiple juvenile stakes-winning sprinter Im a Dixie Girl (3-11, 167K, 3-9 at two) and stakes-winning turfer First Ascent (5-19, 141K, 5-15 on turf).  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winning router Zenith (4-24, 205K, 0-3 at two, 0-7 on turf).  Trainer Chad Brown is 0-1 over the past five years with second-time juveniles in maiden special weight turf sprints.  Made up some late ground in career debut and can't be counted out for strong barn.

3. COMPOSITION (Malibu Moon - St Lucinda, by St. Jovite, May 8, 2009 in Kentucky, $190,000 RNA Keeneland September yearling, $350,000 Fasig-Tipton February juvenile, Out Keeneland April juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.2 prior to the February auction.  She is by a juvenile sprint winner (1-2, 33K, 1-2 at two) that is 161-826 (19%) with juveniles and 28-292 (10%) with first-turfers. The dam was multiple stakes-placed on turf (2-11, 57K, 1-1 at two, 2-10 on turf, first-turf winner) and has foaled 5 winners from 9 runners (2-5 with juveniles, 4-7 with turfers, 1 first-turf winner).  Composition is a half-sister to Grade 2 turf winner Mananan McLir (9-47, 506K, 1-7 at two, 6-35 on turf), stakes-winning turfer Sandra's Rose (4-14, 199K, 4-10 on turf, first-turf winner) and stakes-winning turfer Charming N Lovable (3-7, 146K, 3-7 on turf).  The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed Magic Carr (6-31, 83K, 6-15 on turf, first-turf winner) and stakes-placed Majestico (8-72, 93K, 4-29 on turf).  The August 18 workout matches trainer Christophe Clement's juvenile filly Golden Rock (60 Beyer on turf). Clement is 1-3 (33%, $5.40 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles going dirt to turf in maiden special weight sprints.  Like Run a Risk, this one has a strong grass pedigree and can do better on the lawn.

4. ISLAND PRAYER (Pulpit - Cozy Island, by Cozzene, March 31, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a multiple Grade 2 route winner (4-6, 728K) that is 125-796 (16%) with juveniles and 231-1740 (13%) with turfers. The dam was Grade 2-placed (3-15, 160K, 1-11 on turf) and has foaled 1 winner from 4 runners (1-3 with 2yos, 0-2 with turfers). The third dam is stakes-placed Jamaican Spell (2-7, 14K, 1-3 at two).  Trainer Nick Zito is 0-7 over the past five years with second-time juveniles on turf (0-1 at Saratoga). Disappointed in career debut going long.  Has a nice pedigree but may need a few more races to get the hang of things.

9. CERTAINTY (Lawyer Ron - I Don't Know, by Star de Naskra, May 9, 2009 in Kentucky, $22,000 RNA OBS Fall October weanling, $55,000 Keeneland April juvenile) is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (12-26, 2.7M, 3-10 at two, 0-5 on turf) that is 4-27 (15%) with juveniles and 0-0 with first-turfers from his first crop of 2011. The dam, a $34,000 weanling, was unplaced (0-2, 2K) and has foaled 3 winners from 7 runners (0-4 with 2yos, 0-3 with turfers). The second dam is juvenile stakes-winner Bel Ray (10-43, 303K, 2-4 at two, 0-1 on turf).  Trainer Frank Alexander is 0-2 over the past five years with second-time juveniles going dirt to turf (0-1 at Saratoga). Didn't do much on dirt, but faced a very promising filly.  Best to draw a line through that effort.

13. THISIZSPARTA (Corinthian - Deputy Sue, by Silver Deputy, February 17, 2009 in Kentucky, $70,000 Keeneland November weanling) is by a Grade 1 route winner (6-12, 1.2M, 1-2 at two, 0-1 sprinting) that is 1-27 (4%) with juvenile debut runners from his first crop of 2011 (debut winner at this meet out of a Silver Deputy mare). The dam, a $55,000 yearling, was a multiple stakes-winner (8-24, 231K, 1-10 sprinting) and has foaled 2 winner from 3 runners (0-2 with 2yos, 1-3 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to Grade 2 route winner Gourami (11-52, 380K, 4-13 at two, 2-14 sprinting). Trainer Jimmy Jerkens is 9-49 (18%, $2.01 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (2-11, 18%, $2.64 ROI at Saratoga). Jerkens is 1-31 (3%, $0.30 ROI) with all debut runners since January 1, 2010.

14. AUBBY K (Street Sense - Lilly Capote, by Capote, April 20, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (6.13, 4.3M, 2-5 at two, 1-2 sprinting) that is 2-13 (15%, $3.92 ROI) with juvenile debut runners from his first crop of 2011 (1 at this meet).  The dam, a $110,000 yearling and $250,000 juvenile, was a juvenile Grade 3 winner (5-13, 265K, 3-6 at two, 3-7 sprinting) and has foaled 4 winners from 5 runners (3-5 with 2yos, 1 debut winner, 3-5 with sprinters).  Aubby K is a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed America's Storm (3-17, 106K, 0-3 at two, 0-6 sprinting), juvenile Grade 2-placed sprinter Mythical Pegasus (2-14, 126K, 1-6 at two, 2-8 sprinting) and juvenile Grade 2-placed sprinter Flying Pegasus (2-17, 206K, 2-3 at two, won debut, 2-9 sprinting). The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Bubba Dulyah (11-45, 220K, 2-4 at two, won debut, 10-42 sprinting). Trainer Ralph Nicks is 4-31 (13%, $2.76 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (2-7, 29%, $10.28 ROI at Saratoga). Nicks is 3-26 (11%, $3.87 ROI) with all debut runners since January 1, 2010.

15. DYNAMIC STAR (Trippi - Valid Forbes, by Valid Appeal, February 17, 2009 in Florida, $115,000 OBS Spring April juvenile) worked 2 furlongs in 21.4 prior to the April auction.  She is by a Grade 1 sprint winner (7-14, 666K, 6-11 sprinting) that is 37-244 (15%) with juvenile debut runners (8-46, 17%, $2.28 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 3 juvenile debut winners). The dam was a multiple stakes-winner (4-15, 401K, 3-5 at two, won debut, 2-9 sprinting) and has foaled 2 winners from 3 runners (2-3 with 2yos, 2-3 with sprinters). The dam is a full sister to stakes-placed Valid Lightning (9-47, 217K, 8-35 sprinting). The dam is a half-sister to juvenile stakes-winning sprinter Pharmstar (3-16, 159K, 2-4 at two, won debut, 3-11 sprinting) and stakes-placed Savo Island (4-29, 93K, 1-3 at two, 3-23 sprinting). Trainer Kathy Ritvo is 0-1 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints. Ritvo is 0-16 with all debut runners since January 1, 2004.

16. SIBERIAN WILDCAT (Wildcat Heir - Artic Experience, by Slewpy, February 20, 2009 in Florida, Out Keeneland November weanling, $24,000 RNA OBS Select yearling, $46,000 OBS Spring juvenile) worked one furlong in 10.1 prior to the April auction. She is by a Grade 1 sprint winner (6-12, 424K, 1-2 at two, 6-12 sprinting) that is 77-375 (21%) with juveniles. The dam was a Grade 2-placed sprinter at two (1-3, 27K, 1-2 at two, 1-3 sprinting) and has foaled 4 winners from 6 runners (4-6 with juvenile runners, 4-6 with sprinters). Siberian Wildcat is a half-sister to juvenile stakes-winning sprinter Crackalackin (5-12, 105K, 2-3 at two, 5-12 sprinting). This is the female family of Grade 3 winner Kissapotamus (10-58, 152K, 2-7 at two). Trainer Gary Contessa is 24-191 (13%, $1.61 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles in maiden special weight dirt sprints (3-52, 6%, $1.23 ROI at Saratoga).

Selections:
1. Constantinople
2. Rock On Home
3. Inny Minnie

The Play:
Constantinople to Win and Place at 4-1 odds or greater.

* Meet record based on starts, wins, top pick (after scratches) in the money, and profit/loss of that day's play ($2 wager, scheduled surface only): 66-13-31 (-$34.90)