07/31/2011 7:41AM

Saratoga: Spa Babies for July 31, Race 4

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Welcome to Spa Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile contest at the meet and hope for a tidy profit.

In past years, I would list the stats for each horse before writing up my analysis, selections and wagering strategy.
In order to streamline the content, this year's Spa Babies will showcase written analyses of each juvenile race.
Each analysis will include relevant statistical information.  Following the analysis, top three selections and wagering strategy will be provided.

Race 4
5 1/2 Furlongs
Maiden Claiming ($50,000
2-year-olds
Purse $29,000

Analysis:

BUNKER'S LEDGE (Harperstown - Cookie Bight Cove, by Elusive Quality, January 23, 2009 in Arkansas) is by a multiple stakes-placed runner (3-10, 109K, 1-4 at two, 1-5 sprinting) that is 0-18 with juvenile debut runners.  The dam was a route winner (1-12, 18K, 0-4 at two, 0-3 sprinting) and this is her first starter.  This is the family of Grade 2 route winner Wortheroatsingold (4-36, 328K, 1-6 at two, 0-2 sprinting).  The June 19 workout matches trainer Ken McPeek's juvenile Ventura Bar (finished second in career debut on turf at Ellis Park on July 2 with 41 Beyer; has 61 Beyer on dirt).  The July 2 workout went .02 faster than McPeek's 3-year-old Cardsontablefaceup (69 Beyer on turf, 67 Beyer on synthetic).  The July 16 workout matches McPeek's juvenile filly Illegally Blonde (finished fifth in maiden special weight on turf here on July 28 with 61 Beyer; has 55 on dirt).

SEAWALKER (Monarchos - Ninth of July, by Sea Salute, March 26, 2009 in Florida, $1,200 OBS Open August yearling, $5,500 OBS Spring April juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.3 prior to the April auction.  He is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (4-10, 1.7M, 0-2 at two, 1-3 sprinting) that is 13-106 (12%) with juvenile debut runners.  The dam, a $10,000 juvenile, was a turf winner (1-10, 30K) and this is her first foal.  The second dam is multiple stakes-placed Mistical Mirage (2-26, 63K, 0-1 at two, 2-20 sprinting).  The June 30 workout went .01 slower than trainer Bernardo Callejas' 5-year-old Ezzy (83 Beyer on dirt).

SILVER MAX (Badge of Silver - Kissin Rene, by Kissin Kris, March 8, 2009 in Kentucky, $20,000 Fasig-Tipton Summer July yearling) is by a multiple Grade 2 winner (7-16, 1.0M, 1-1 at two, 3-5 sprinting) that is 6-49 (12%) with juvenile debut runners (5-30, 17%, $2.54 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 2 juvenile debut winners).  The dam was a sprint winner (1-6, 7K, 1-3 sprinting) and has foaled 2 winners from 4 runners (1-2 with juveniles, 2-4 with sprinters).  Silver Max is a half-brother to stakes-winner True Kiss (4-21, 115K, 1-2 at two, 3-18 sprinting).  The dam is a half-sister to Grade 3 winner Prince of the Mt. (10-51, 396K, 0-4 at two, 6-29 sprinting) and stakes-placed sprinter Mt. Rene (2-8, 36K, 1-2 at two, won debut, 2-6 sprinting).

AFLEET BANDIT (Afleet Alex - Bendita, by Baldski, Foaled February 26, 2009 in Kentucky, $120,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Grade 1 winner (8-12, 2.7M, 4-6 at two, won debut, 5-5 sprinting) that is 10-86 (12%) with juvenile debut runners (4-33, 12%, $2.63 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 2 juvenile debut winners).  The dam was stakes-placed on turf (5-19, 89K, 0-2 sprinting) and has foaled 6 winners from 7 runners (0-2 with juveniles, 0-4 with sprinters).  Afleet Bandit is a half-brother to Grade 3-placed Beat the Play (2-7, 91K, 0-2 at two, 0-2 sprinting), multiple Grade 1 turfer Better Talk Now (51-14-8-5, 4.3M, 0-1 at two, 0-2 sprinting) and stakes-winner B. A. Way (5-24, 320K).  The July 20 workout matches trainer Wayne Lukas' juvenile filly Tura Isabel (40 Beyer top).  The July 27 workout matches Lukas' 3-year-old Alstom (85 Beyer top).

YONDER 'TIS (Orientate - Four Once, by Grand Slam, April 16, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a multiple Grade 1 sprint winner (10-19, 1.7M, 0-2 at two, 8-11 sprinting) that is 25-210 (12%) with juvenile debut runners (2-30, 7%, $0.44 ROI with all debut runners in 2011).  The dam, a $100,000 juvenile, was a route winner in the slop (1-9, 51K, 0-1 at two) and this is her first starter.  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winning juvenile Ells End (10-39, 238K, 3-9 at two, won debut, 4-18 sprinting), stakes-winning juvenile First Again (4-16, 182K, 2-5 at two, 1-4 sprinting) and multiple stakes-placed Ells Editor (7-53, 160K, 1-5 at two, 7-42 sprinting).  The May 22 workout went .05 slower than trainer Mark Hennig's juvenile filly Sally's Dream (finished fourth in career debut at Belmont on July 10 with 43 Beyer, entered in second race).  The May 29 workout matches Sally's Dream.  The June 14 workout went .02 slower than Sally's Dream. The June 14 workout matches Hennig's 3-year-old Settle for Medal (finished fourth in 'n1x' optional claimer at Belmont on June 29 with 60 Beyer).  The July 18 workout matches Hennig's juvenile filly Proud and Charming (finished fourth in career debut here on July 22 with 44 Beyer). 

PROFESSOR FATE (Lion Heart - Sixteen Spices, by Capote, April 16, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (5-10, 1.3M, 3-3 at two, 2-2 sprinting) that is 25-175 (14%) with juvenile debut runners (9-47, 19%, $1.98 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 5 juvenile debut winners, 1 at this meet).  The Lion Heart - Capote breeding 'nick' has produced Grade 1 route winner Line of David (3-7, 662K, 0-2 at two, 0-1 sprinting). The dam, an $85,000 yearling, was unraced and has foaled 1 winner from 3 runners (0-1 with juveniles, 0-2 with sprinters).  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed True Gold (3-16, 130K, 2-10 sprinting). The May 25, June 1 workouts match trainer Eddie Kenneally's juvenile Francois (finished sixth in career debut at Ellis Park on July 30 with 17 Beyer).

KING AND CRUSADER (Lion Heart - Sugarloaf, by Regal Intention, April 9, 2009 in Maryland, $8,000 Keeneland September yearling, $26,000 OBS Spring April juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.3 prior to the April auction.  He is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (5-10, 1.3M, 3-3 at two, 2-2 sprinting) that is 25-175 (14%) with juvenile debut runners (9-47, 19%, $1.98 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 5 juvenile debut winners, 1 at this meet).  The dam was a juvenile debut winner (1-1, 21K, 1-1 sprinting) and has foaled 4 winners from 6 runners (0-2 with juveniles, 4-6 with sprinters).  King and Crusader is a half-brother to multiple stakes-placed sprinter (5-22, 220K, 0-7 at two, 5-22 sprinting). The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner McKilts (6-20, 260K, 1-4 at two, 2-8 sprinting).  The June 20 workout matches trainer David Fawkes' juvenile filly Valley of Avoca (finished third in career debut at Belmont on June 24 with 42 Beyer; 65 Beyer on turf).  The June 20 workout matches Fawkes' juvenile Master Achievement (finished fourth in debut at Belmont on July 8 with 8 Beyer). The June 26 workout went .03 faster than Fawkes' 3-year-old Perfection Plus (finished tenth in debut here on July 23 on 39 Beyer). The July 16 workout went .04 slower than Fawkes' 3-year-old Cousin Rich (finished third in $50,000 maiden claimer on turf here on July 28 with 68 Beyer).

ENRICO PALLAZZO (Scat Daddy - Bountempo, by Capt Town, February 23, 2009 in Kentucky, $50,000 RNA Keeneland January short yearling, $52,000 Keeneland September yearling, $50,000 OBS Select March juvenile) worked 2 furlongs in 22.1 prior to the March auction.  He is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (5-9, 1.3M, 3-5 at two, 2-3 sprinting) that is 4-31 (13%) with juvenile runners from his first crop of 2011.  The dam, a $55,000 yearling, was a stakes-placed sprinter at two (2-7, 46K, 2-3 at two, 2-7 sprinting) and has foaled 0 winners from 2 runners (0-1 with juveniles, 0-2 with sprinters). This is the family of Grade 2 route winner Benburb (7-22, 1.1M, 0-6 at two, 0-1 sprinting).

LIONATOR (Lion Heart - Dracken, by Millennium Allstar, January 23, 2009 in Kentucky, $8,000 Keeneland January short yearling, $7,500 OBS Open August yearling, $21,000 OBS Spring April juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.4 prior to the April auction. He is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (5-10, 1.3M, 3-3 at two, 2-2 sprinting) that is 25-175 (14%) with juvenile debut runners (9-47, 19%, $1.98 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 5 juvenile debut winners, 1 at this meet).  The dam, a $2,547 yearling, was a juvenile sprint winner (1-9, 11K, 1-6 at two, 1-9 sprinting) and this is her first foal. The dam is a full sister to Grade 3 winner Dancing Allstar (9-19, 517K, 5-7 at two, won debut, 8-15 sprinting).  The June 14, June 19 workouts match trainer Scott Schwartz' 3-year-old City Look (entered for debut in today's third race).  The June 28, July 10 workouts match Schwartz' juvenile Knock Rock (finished sixth in career debut on turf at Belmont on July 15 with 44 Beyer).
 
MOREFORYOURMONEY (Value Plus - I's a Fact, by Is It True, March 20, 2009 in Kentucky, $14,000 RNA OBS Open August yearling, $32,000 OBS Spring April juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.2 prior to the April auction.  He is by a stakes-winning sprinter (3-15, 414K, 1-4 at two, won debut, 3-8 sprinting) that is 9-82 (11%) with juvenile debut runners (4-28, 14%, $1.88 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 juvenile debut winner).  The dam, a $6,500 weanling, was a stakes-placed sprinter (0-8, 32K, 0-3 at two, 0-8 sprinting) and has foaled 2 winners from 2 runners (2-2 with juveniles, 2 juvenile debut winners, 2-2 with sprinters).  This is the family of stakes-placed turfer Broadway (2-19, 42K, 0-1 sprinting).  The May 31 workout matches trainer Mike Hushion's juvenile B Shanny (finished second in career debut at Belmont on July 14 with 36 Beyer).  The June 8 workout went .04 slower than B Shanny.

TWO AND TWENTY (Northern Afleet - Infinitely Greedy, by Mr. Greeley, May 27, 2009 in Oklahoma, Out Fasig-Tipton Texas August yearling, Withdrawn Keeneland September yearling, $105,000 OBS Select March juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.2 prior to the March auction.  He is by a multiple Grade 2 winner (5-21, 626K, 1-3 at two, won debut, 3-11 sprinting) that is 36-218 (17%) with juvenile debut runners (1-15, 7%, $0.93 ROI with all debut runners in 2011).  The dam, an $85,000 juvenile, was a route winner (1-8, 24K, 0-2 at two, 0-1 sprinting) and has foaled 2 winners from 3 runners (1-2 with juveniles, 1 juvenile debut winner, 2-3 with sprinters). The dam is a full sister to stakes-winner Lovewithoutend (5-11, 59K, 0-1 at two, 4-10 sprinting).

Selections:
1. Bunker's Ledge
2. Seawalker
3. Silver Max

The Play:
Bunker's Ledge to Win and Place at 8-1 odds or greater.

***

*Meet record based on starts, wins, top pick (after scratches) in the money, and profit/loss of that day's play ($2 wager, scheduled surface only): 14-4-5 (-$27.70)