07/31/2011 7:45AM

Saratoga: Spa Babies for July 31, Race 2

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Welcome to Spa Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile contest at the meet and hope for a tidy profit.

In past years, I would list the stats for each horse before writing up my analysis, selections and wagering strategy.
In order to streamline the content, this year's Spa Babies will showcase written analyses of each juvenile race.
Each analysis will include relevant statistical information.  Following the analysis, top three selections and wagering strategy will be provided.

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Saturday's result:
Race 2:  Stealcase finished fourth
Race 6:  Colbert finished ninth

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Race 2
6 Furlongs
Maiden Special Weight (New York)
2-year-old fillies
Purse $40,000

 

Analysis:

PRINCESS PHOEBE (Defer - Nick's Honor, by Jump Start, February 22, 2009) is the first starter by a juvenile Grade 3 winner (4-18, 260K, 2-3 at two, won debut, 1-2 sprinting).  The dam, a $40,000 weanling and $45,000 yearling, was unraced and this is her first foal.  The second dam was stakes-placed sprinter Gaye's Express (1-9, 13K, 0-1 at two, 1-9 sprinting).  The June 25 workout matches trainer Eric Reed's juvenile filly Blushing Martha (finished second in career debut over the Tapeta surface at Presque Isle Downs on July 9 with 40 Beyer).  The July 24 workout went .05 faster than Reed's 3-year-old filly Mai Tai Mama (59 Beyer top).

ERIN ENCHANTED (Lion Heart - Gold 'n Sugar, by Java Gold, May 9, 2009, $45,000 Fasig-Tipton Preferred August yearling) is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (5-10, 1.3M, 3-3 at two, 2-2 sprinting) that is 85-521 (16%) with juveniles.  The dam was multiple stakes-placed (6-15, 226K, 1-2 at two, 3-5 sprinting) and has foaled 4 winners from 7 runners (1-5 with juveniles, 2-7 with sprinters).  The third dam is multiple stakes-winning juvenile Sue Babe (3-4, 103K, 3-4 at two).

SHESABRONXBOMBER (Afleet Alex - Beppin, by Forest Wildcat, April 12, 2009, $17,000 OBS Winter short yearling, $35,000 Fasig-Tipton Preferred yearling, Withdrawn Fasig-Tipton February juvenile, Withdrawn OBS Select March juvenile) is by a multiple Grade 1 winner (8-12, 2.7M, 4-6 at two, 5-5 sprinting) that is 34-253 (13%) with juvenile runners.  The dam, a $72,000 yearling, was a winner (2-15, 47K, 0-4 sprinting) and this is her first starter.  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed sprinter Scootchie (0-4, 6K, 0-1 at two, 0-3 sprinting) and Grade 3 sprint winner Cashel Castle (5-11, 239K, 3-3 at two, 5-9 sprinting).

SALLY'S DREAM (Utopia - Linda Britt, by Cormorant, March 21, 2009, $20,000 Fasig-Tipton Preferred August yearling) is by a multiple Grade 1 winner in Japan (9-34, 4.9M, 3-4 at two, 2-3 at two) that is 1-13 (8%) with juvenile runners from his first crop of 2011.  The dam was placed sprinting (0-1, 5K, 0-1 sprinting) and has foaled 5 winners from 7 runners (1-4 with juveniles, 5-7 with sprinters).  Sally's Dream is a half-sister to stakes-winning juvenile Shot Berry (2-12, 84K, 2-6 at two, 1-8 sprinting).  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed Figi Bidders (3-22, 95K, 1-2 at two, 2-10 sprinting).

CASTLES BURNING (Hook and Ladder - One Wise Cowgirl, by Wiseman's Ferry, April 12, 2009, $2,000 OBS Winter short yearling, Withdrawn OBS Spring April juvenile, Withdrawn OBS Open June juvenile) is by a Grade 2 sprint winner (6-19, 388K, 1-1 at two, 6-18 sprinting) that is 16-114 (14%) with juvenile debut runners (2-23, 9%, $0.73 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, both juvenile debut winner).  The dam was unraced and this is her first starter.  The dam is a half-sister to juvenile stakes-placed sprinter North Beach Condo (3-22, 59K, 2-3 at two, 3-22 sprinting).

SUAVE N SASSY (Suave - Devilish Max, by Gold Token, March 27, 2009) is by a multiple Grade 2 route winner (7-27, 1.3M, 1-5 at two, 0-2 sprinting) that is 18-147 (12%) with juvenile runners. The dam was unplaced (0-4 at two, 0-4 sprinting) and this is her first starter.  This is the family of multiple stakes-winner Christina Czarina (7-34, 293K, 2-5 at two, 6-27 sprinting).

BEAUTIFUL BUT BLUE (El Corredor - Beautiful America, by Dixie Brass, February 26, 2009) is by a Grade 1 route winner (7-10, 727K, 1-2 at two, 4-6 sprinting) that is 20-239 (8%) with juvenile debut runners (2-33, 6%, $0.46 ROI with all debut runners in 2011).  The dam was a multiple stakes-winner (6-21, 523K, 4-6 at two, won debut, 4-12 sprinting) and has foaled 2 winners from 2 runners (0-2 with juveniles, 2-2 with sprinters).  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed juvenile Eyeofthehunter (1-5, 60K, 1-4 at two, 1-4 sprinting). 

BELLACOURT (Lion Heart - Gold Court, by Strike the Gold, March 27, 2009, $23,000 Keeneland January short yearling, $25,000 Fasig-Tipton Preferred August yearling) is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (5-10, 1.3M, 3-3 at two, 2-2 sprinting) that is 85-521 (16%) with juveniles.  The dam, an $18,000 yearling, was stakes-placed (5-24, 152K, 0-5 at two, 2-14 sprinting) and has foaled 1 winner from 3 runners (0-2 with juveniles, 1-3 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winning sprinter Savage Creek (3-12, 43K, 0-3 at two, 3-9 sprinting).

CLEVER SPIRIT (Smarty Jones - Unbridled Valor, by Unbridled, May 7, 2009) is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (8-9, 7.6M, 2-2 at two, 2-2 sprinting) that is 11-66 (17%) with juvenile debut runners (2-28, 7%, $1.74 ROI with all debut runners in 2011).  The dam, a $375,000 yearling, was a route winner (1-8, 35K, 0-2 at two) and has foaled 3 winners from 4 runners (2-3 with juveniles, 2-4 with sprinters).  The dam is a three-quarter sister to stakes-winning turfer Unbridled Danz (3-4, 81K). The May 14 and June 10 workouts went .01 slower than trainer Ramon Hernandez' juvenile filly Project Runaway (finished eighth in career debut here on July 22 with 35 Beyer).  The May 28 workout went .02 slower than Project Runaway.  The June 19 workout matches Project Runaway.  The July 17 workout went .01 faster than Project Runaway.

LADY SAMURI (First Samurai - Redeye Rain, by Instrument Landing, March 31, 2009, $50,000 Fasig-Tipton Preferred August yearling, $57,000 OBS Select March juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.4 prior to the March auction.  She is by a multiple Grade 1 winner at two, 915K, 4-5 at two, won debut, 3-4 sprinting) that is 2-38 (5%) with juvenile debut runners (4-26, 15%, $1.64 ROI with all debut runners in 2011 (1 juvenile debut winner).  The dam was a turf winner (1-12, 7K, 0-6 sprinting) and has foaled 8 winners from 12 runners (1-7 with juveniles, 5-12 with sprinters).  Lady Samuri is a half-sister to stakes-winner Message Red (6-14, 240K, 1-6 sprinting) and stakes-placed turfer Red Down South (2-32, 116K, 0-4 at two, 0-6 sprinting).  This is the family of juvenile Grade 1 sprinter Palm Hut (5-20, 157K, 4-7 at two).

GOLDIE'S REWARD (Grand Reward - Hyde the Gold, by Fast Gold, March 23, 2009) is by a Grade 2 route winner (4-24, 545K, 1-4 at two, won debut, 0-3 sprinting) that is 8-100 (8%) with juvenile debut runners (1-14, 7%, $0.51 ROI with all debut runners in 2011).  The dam was a winner (7-44, 49K, 0-4 at two, 0-5 sprinting) and has foaled 4 winners from 4 runners (1-3 with juveniles, 1-4 with sprinters).  Goldie's Reward is a half-sister to stakes-placed juvenile Princeton Hills (3-50, 163K, 0-3 at two, 0-3 sprinting) and stakes-placed Forbidden Forest (2-11, 100K, 1-5 at two, 1-3 sprinting).  The dam is a half-sister to Grade 2-placed router Hofre (4-55, 79K, 1-6 at two, 1-11 sprinting).  The July 1 workout went .05 faster than trainer George Weaver's juvenile Quiet Danger (finished ??? in career debut on grass on July 30 with ??? Beyer).  The July 8 workout matches Weaver's 3-year-old Fiddlers Padre (5 Beyer on turf). 

Selections:
1. Princess Phoebe
2. Erin Enchanted
3. Shesabronxbomber

The Play
Princess Phoebe to Win and Place at 5-1 odds or greater