07/30/2011 8:01AM

Saratoga: Spa Babies for July 30, Race 6

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Welcome to Spa Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile contest at the meet and hope for a tidy profit.

In past years, I would list the stats for each horse before writing up my analysis, selections and wagering strategy.
In order to streamline the content, this year's Spa Babies will showcase written analyses of each juvenile race.
Each analysis will include relevant statistical information.  Following the analysis, top three selections and wagering strategy will be provided.

 

Race 6
1 1/16 Miles (Turf)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-olds
Purse $51,000

Analysis:

COLBERT (Dixie Union - Nicarola Catrola, by Deputy Minister, May 14, 2009 in Kentucky, $90,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Grade 1 winner (7-12, 1.2M, 4-6 at two) that is 114-720 (16%) with juvenile runners and 20-221 (9%) with first-turf runners.  The dam was unraced and has foaled 2 winners from 4 runners (1-4 with juveniles, 0-2 with turfers). The dam is a half-sister to Grade 2-placed turfer Skellytown (10-33, 237K, 5-19 on turf).  McPeek is 0-2 over the past five years with juvenile second-time routers going dirt to turf and adding Lasix in maiden special weight.  Colbert just missed to a favored winner in a solid debut run at Ellis Park.

WINSTON C (Corinthian - The Happy Hopper, by El Prado, January 15, 2009 in Kentucky, Out Keeneland November weanling, $75,000 RNA Keeneland September yearling) is by a Grade 1 route winner (6-12, 1.2M, 1-2 at two) that is 0-10 with juvenile debut runners and 0-1 with first-turf runners from his first crop of 2011.  The dam, a $25,000 weanling and $72,000 yearling, was a multiple stakes-winner (12-38, 801K, 3-7 at two, 1-5 on turf) and has foaled 2 winners from 3 runners (0-1 with juveniles, 0-2 with turfers).  The second dam is juvenile stakes-winner Village Dancer (5-20, 193K, 2-5 at two, 2-8 on turf, first-turf winner).  The July 22 workout matches trainer Bill Mott's 4-year-old filly Deluxe (111 Racing Post Rating on turf in Europe).  Trainer Bill Mott is 5-58 (9%, $0.67 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf routes (2-23, 9%, $0.49 ROI at Saratoga).  He is 3-31 (9%, $1.65 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

SATURDAY CLASSIC (Any Given Saturday - Classic Approval, by With Approval, May 7, 2009 in Kentucky, $75,000 OBS Select August yearling, $180,000 OBS Select March juvenile, Out Keeneland April juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.2 prior to the March auction.  He is by a Grade 1 route winner (6-11, 1.0M, 2-3 at two, won debut) that is 0-5 with juvenile debut runners and 0-1 with first-turf runners from his first crop of 2011.  The dam was multiple stakes-placed (3-14, 109K, 1-5 at two, 3-10 on turf, first-turf winner) and has foaled 8 winners from 8 runners (3-5 with juveniles, 1 juvenile debut winner, 6-8 with turfers, 2 first-turf winners).  Saturday Classic is a half-brother to multiple Grade 3 winner Gulch Approval (8-40, 593K, 0-2 at two, 5-21 on turf, first-turf winner), stakes-winner Approval Rating (4-16, 302K, 2-4 at two, won debut, 1-3 on turf, first-turf winner) and Grade 2-placed router Highest Class (2-12, 120K, 2-5 at two, 0-1 on turf). The dam is a half-sister to Grade 2 winner Class Kris (10-27, 603K, 0-1 at two, 6-12 on turf), multiple Grade 3-placed sprinter Class on Class (5-34, 189K, 1-3 at two, 0-2 on turf) and stakes-winner Patriot Act (4-19, 452K, 0-4 at two). The June 24 workout matches trainer Mark Casse's juvenile filly Delightful Magic (finished second in career debut on dirt here on July 22 with 83 Beyer). The July 10 workout matches up with trainer Mark Casse's 6-year-old Pool Play (102 Beyer on dirt, 98 on synthetic, 97 on turf).  The July 10 and July 24 workouts match Casse's juvenile Stealcase (entered in today's second race).  The July 20 workout matches Casse's 4-year-old Time Trial (78 Beyer on turf).  Casse is 1-8 (13%, $1.80 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf routes (1-1, 100%, $14.40 ROI at Saratoga).  Casse is 7-33 (21%, $1.71 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

SPEIGHTSCITY (Speightstown - My American Girl, by Quiet American, April 22, 2009 in Kentucky, $65,000 Keeneland September yearling, Withdrawn Fasig-Tipton February juvenile, Withdrawn OBS Select March juvenile, $49,000 RNA Fasig-Tipton Spring May juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.3 prior to the May auction.  He is by a Grade 1 sprint winner (10-16, 1.2M, 0-1 at two) that is 17-125 (14%) with juvenile debut runners (7-39, 18%, $2.06 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 3 juvenile debut winners, 1 on turf) and 15-115 (13%) with first-turf runners.  The dam, a $21,000 yearling, was multiple stakes-placed (2-16, 42K, 1-12 at two) and has foaled 3 winners from 3 runners (1-2 with juveniles, 1-2 with turfers).  Speightscity is a half-brother to stakes-winning juvenile My Royal Girl (7-31, 63K, 2-5 at two, 1-6 on turf). The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Lucinda (5-19, 109K, 2-4 at two, 0-2 on turf) and stakes-placed sprinter Smokin Bee (1-9, 31K, 0-3 at two, 0-1 on turf). The June 19 workout went .02 faster than trainer Gary Contessa's juvenile filly Siberian Wildcat (finished fifth in career debut on dirt here on July 25 with 23 Beyer). The June 24 workout went .01 faster than Siberian Wildcat.  The July 4 and July 11 workouts match Siberian Wildcat.  Contessa is 0-12 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf routes (0-5 at Saratoga).  He is 2-22 (9%, $1.00 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

TAKEMEBAKTOARTEMUS (Kitten's Joy - Easy Slam, by Grand Slam, March 27, 2009 in Kentucky, Withdrawn OBS Spring April juvenile) is by a multiple Grade 1 turf winner (9-14, 2.0M, 2-4 at two, 9-12 on turf, first-turf winner) that is 19-102 (19%) with juvenile debut runners (5-41, 12%, $2.23 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 juvenile debut winner, 1 older winner on turf) and 18-121 (15%) with first-turf runners.  The dam, a $325,000 yearling, was a sprint winner at two (1-6, 30K, 1-4 at two) and this is her first starter.  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winning sprinter Came to Pass (3-5, 62K).  Trainer Chad Brown is 3-17 (18%, $1.74 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf routes (2-6, 33%, $3.23 ROI at Saratoga).  Brown is 1-21 (5%, $0.59 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

DULLAHAN (Even the Score - Mining My Own, by Smart Strike, February 8, 2009 in Kentucky, $250,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Grade 2 route winner (9-29, 751K, 3-16 on turf, first-turf winner) that is 29-237 (12%) with juvenile runners and 11-85 (13%) with first-turf runners.  the dam was unraced and has foaled 2 winners from 3 runners (1-3 with juveniles, 0-1 with turfers).  Dullahan is a half-brother to Grade 1 route winner Mine That Bird (5-18, 2.2M, 4-6 at two, 0-1 on turf).  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winning sprinter Golden Sunray (2-3, 87K).  The July 22 workout matches trainer Dale Romans' juvenile Seve (52 Beyer on dirt).  Romans is 2-19 (11%, $0.59 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles going dirt to turf and sprint to route in maiden special weights (0-8 at Saratoga).  Finished ahead of Daddy Nose Best at Churchill and is bred to appreciate longer distances.

TIZ A HOMERUN (Tiznow - Carsonality, by Carson City, April 11, 2009 in Kentucky, $300,000 yearling Fasig-Tipton Select August 2010, Out Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (8-15, 6.4M) that is 18-194 (9%) with juvenile debut runners (3-46, 7%, $0.46 ROI with all debut runners in 2011) and 22-212 (10%) with first-turf runners.  The Tiznow - Carson City breeding 'nick' has produced juvenile Grade 1-placed router Big Tiz (1-8, 160K, 1-6 at two, 0-3 on turf) and stakes-winning sprinter Lady Chace (6-19, 252K, 1-2 at two, won debut, 1-6 on turf). The dam, an $18,000 yearling, was a stakes-winner (4-23, 121K, 0-7 at two, 2-8 on turf) and has foaled 3 winners from 6 runners (1-4 with juveniles, 0-4 with turf runners).  Tiz a Homerun is a half-brother to Grade 3-placed router Larrys Revenge (5-15, 71K, 1-4 at two).  The dam is a half-sister to multiple Grade 1 winner Fran's Valentine (13-34, 1.3M, 3-9 at two, 0-3 on turf), Grade 2 winner Iz a Saros (4-15, 212K, 1-5 at two, 0-1 on turf), multiple stakes-placed Recommendation (6-68, 244K, 0-2 at two, 2-13 on turf) and Grade 2-placed Crissy Aya (3-10, 119K, 0-1 on turf).  The May 20 and July 7 workouts match trainer Graham Motion's juvenile filly Vapour Musing (finished seventh in career debut here on turf on July 28 with 58 Beyer).  The June 3, June 16, June 30, July 7 and July 15 workouts match Motion's juvenile State of Play (finished first in career debut on turf on July 27 with 67 Beyer). Motion is 0-16 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf routes (0-5 at Saratoga).  He is 2-21 (9%, $1.42 ROI) with all debut runners in

MAGICAL MOMENT (Pulpit - Twenty One A.C., by Deputy Minister, May 18, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a multiple Grade 2 winner (4-6, 728K) that is 124-780 (16%) with juvenile runners and 228-1707 (13%) with turf runners. The dam, a $310,000 yearling, was placed routing (7-0-1-1, 15K, 0-2 on turf) and has foaled 2 winners from 6 runners (0-4 with juveniles, 2-5 with turfers).  The Pulpit - Deputy Minister breeding 'nick' has produced multiple stakes-placed Miss Inclined (2-8, 85K, 1-4 at two, 1-3 on turf).  Magical Moment is a half-brother to multiple stakes-placed Terrific Storm (10-45, 374K, 6-27 on turf).  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winning sprinter Diamond Sunjet (11-54, 132K, 1-4 at two, 0-1 on turf), Grade 3-placed juvenile Thinkernot (4-34, 154K, 1-8 at two, 2-19 on turf), multiple Grade 1 route winner Wekiva Springs (10-21, 1.5M, 1-2 at two) and stakes-placed juvenile Indomable (14-153, 190K, 1-16 at two, 2-21 on turf).  Trainer Rusty Arnold is 1-10 (10%, $2.26 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles going sprint to route in maiden special weights on turf (0-4 at Saratoga).  Took some action in the debut and finished ahead of Furman Bisher.  The third-finisher from that race returned to graduate over Arlington turf with a 62 Beyer.

FURMAN BISHER (Langfuhr - Millashand, by Regal Intention, March 10, 2009 in Maryland, $90,000 RNA Fasig-Tipton Summer July yearling) is by a multiple Grade 1 winner (9-23, 698K, 0-5 on turf) that is 153-1126 (14%) with juvenile runners and 287-2402 (12%) with turfers.  The dam was a stakes-winning sprinter (2-12, 106K, 1-3 at two, 0-3 on turf) and has foaled 3 winners from 5 runners (0-4 with juveniles, 1-3 with turfers).  The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Mordacious (3-14, 149K, 2-5 at two, 0-2 on turf) and stakes-placed turfer Obliquity (3-20, 150K, 0-4 at two, 2-13 on turf).  Trainer Neil Howard is 0-5 over the past five years with second-time juveniles going sprint to route in maiden special weights on turf (0-4 at Saratoga).  Must improve off dull debut.

CAPTAIN WEBB (English Channel - Miss Mary Pat, by Service Stripe, March 3, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a multiple Grade 1 turf winner (13-23, 5.3M, 1-1 at two, 13-22 on turf, first-turf winner) that is 1-7 (14%, $0.83 ROI) and 0-3 with first-turf runners from his first crop of 2011.  The dam, a $160,000 juvenile, was a multiple stakes-winning sprinter at two (3-5, 102K, 3-5 at two) and has foaled 0 winners from 1 runner.  The second dam is stakes-placed juvenile sprinter Missadryannaatto (1-9, 69K, 0-1 at two, 0-2 on turf). The July 11 workout went .04 slower than trainer Todd Pletcher's 3-year-old Springcourt (finished fourth in career debut on turf here on July 29 with ??? Beyer).  Pletcher is 11-69 (16%, $1.15 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf routes (9-34, 26%, $2.05 ROI at Saratoga). Pletcher is 18-70 (25%, $1.84 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

DADDY NOSE BEST  (Scat Daddy - Follow Your Bliss, by Thunder Gulch, March 3, 2009 in Kentucky, $34,000 RNA Keeneland November weanling, $35,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (5-9, 1.3M, 3-5 at two) that is 4-31 (13%) with juveniles and 1-2 (50%) with first-turf runners from his first crop of 2011.  The dam was placed on turf (12-0-1-1, $22K, 0-11 on turf) and has foaled 1 winner from 2 runners, 0-2 with juveniles, 0-1 with turfers).  The second dam is Grade 2 winner Follow the Money (6-14, 339K, 5-11 on turf, first-turf winner).  The July 18 workout matches trainer Steve Asmussen's juvenile Sabercat (69 Beyer on dirt).  Asmussen is 0-4 over the past five years with juveniles going dirt to turf and sprint to route in maiden special weights (0-1 at Saratoga). Must avoid wide trip from outside berth.

QUIET DANGER (Bernardini - Amansara, by War Chant, January 14, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (6-8, 3.0M) that is 7-39 (18%) with juvenile debut runners (6-33, 18%, $1.93 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 3 juvenile debut winners) and 1-22 (5%) with first-turf runners.  The dam, a $150,000 yearling, was a stakes-winner on turf (3-11, 140K, 0-1 at two, 3-11 on turf) and this is her first starter.  The dam is a half-sister to Grade 3 turf winner Marastani (11-71, 499K, 0-4 at two, 11-60 on turf), multiple stakes-winner Crimson Classic (10-57, 571K, 1-6 at two, 1-17 on turf), stakes-winner Foret Noire (5-20, 118K, 0-3 at two, 3-11 on turf, first-turf winner), stakes-placed Chief Red Sky (2-12, 76K, 2-6 on turf, first-turf winner), Grade 3 winner Christine's Outlaw (5-20, 351K, 2-6 on turf) and stakes-placed Sacred Feather (5-37, 187K, 1-5 at two, 0-2 on turf). Trainer George Weaver is 1-24 (4%, $0.77 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf routes (1-14, 7%, $1.32 ROI) at Saratoga. He is 4-19 (21%, $2.94 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

HONOR CALL (Empire Maker - Collect Call, by Meadowlake, January 14, 2009 in Kentucky, $300,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (4-8, 1.9M, 1-2 at two) that is 40-214 (19%) with juveniles and 14-148 (9%) with first-turf runners.  The dam, a $250,000 juvenile, was a Grade 3 winner (3-17, 434K, 1-4 at two) and has foaled 2 winners from 4 runners (2-3 with juveniles).  Honor Call is a half-brother to Grade 2 route winner Old Fashioned (4-6, 583K, 3-3 at two).  This is the female family of Grade 1 winner Mitterand (6-17, 446K). The July 19 workout went .04 slower than trainer Wayne Lukas' 3-year-old Alstom (85 Beyer on dirt).  Lukas is 1-6 (17%, $3.16 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles going sprint to route and dirt to turf in maiden special weight (1-3, $6.33 ROI at Saratoga).  Broke poorly in career debut and the sire's best progeny prefer longer distances.

MASTER ACHIEVEMENT (Master Command - Mysteryachievement, by Regal Classic, March 11, 2009 in Kentucky, $15,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Grade 2 route winner (8-17, 1.1M) that is 3-16 (19%) with juveniles and 1-2 (50%) with first-turf runners from his first crop of 2011.  The dam, a $24,475 yearling, was a multiple stakes-placed sprinter (1-7, 85K, 1-1 at two) and has foaled 3 winners from 4 runners (2-3 with juveniles, 1-2 with turfers). Master Achievement is a half-brother to juvenile stakes-winning sprinter The Thought Occurs (1-4, 43K, 1-4 at two).  The second dam is juvenile stakes-placed sprinter Domascarama (3-21, 77K, 0-2 at two).  The July 22 workout matches trainer David Fawkes' juvenile filly Miss Posse (47 Beyer on dirt).  Fawkes is 0-3 over the past five years with second-time juveniles going dirt to turf and sprint to route in maiden special weight.  Raced on the best part of a wet track in debut to no avail, but could do better at this distance.

STREET FIGHT (Street Sense - Reportedly, by Silver Deputy, April 8, 2009 in Ontario, $9,000 Keeneland September yearling, $200,000 Fasig-Tipton February juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.3 prior to the February auction.  He is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (6-13, 4.3M, 2-5 at two, 1-2 sprinting) that is 2-8 (25%) with juvenile runners from his first crop.  The dam was placed sprinting at two (3-0-1-0, 13K, 0-2 at two, 0-3 sprinting) and this is her first foal.  The second dam is stakes-winning juvenile Talk Back (3-6, 159K, 3-4 at two, 2-3 sprinting.  Pletcher is 21-96 (22%, $1.07 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles in maiden special weight dirt sprints (6-41, 15%, $0.61 ROI at Saratoga).  Certainly factors if this race is washed to the main.


Selections:
1. Colbert
2. Winston C
3. Saturday Classic

The Play:
Colbert to Win at 7-2 odds or greater

***

*Meet record based on starts, wins, top pick (after scratches) in the money, and profit/loss of that day's play ($2 wager, scheduled surface only): 12-4-5 (-$25.70)