07/30/2011 8:08AM

Saratoga: Spa Babies for July 30, Race 2

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Welcome to Spa Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile contest at the meet and hope for a tidy profit.

In past years, I would list the stats for each horse before writing up my analysis, selections and wagering strategy.
In order to streamline the content, this year's Spa Babies will showcase written analyses of each juvenile race.
Each analysis will include relevant statistical information.  Following the analysis, top three selections and wagering strategy will be provided.

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Friday's result:
Race 9:  Buccella finished fourth

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Saturday, July 30, 2011

Race 2
6 Furlongs
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-olds
Purse $50,000

Analysis:

STEALCASE (Lawyer Ron - Steal the Show, by Cat Thief, April 7, 2009 in Kentucky, $35,000 Keeneland November weanling, $35,000 RNA OBS Select August 2010, $320,000 OBS Select March juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.0 prior to the March auction.  He is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (12-26, 2.7M, 3-10 at two, 1-3 sprinting) that is 2-11 (18%, $0.95 ROI) with juvenile debut runners from his first crop of 2011.  The dam was stakes-placed (2-15, 88K, 1-7 at two, 2-12 sprinting) and has foaled 1 winner from 1 runner (1-1 with juveniles, debut winner, 1-1 with sprinters).  The dam is a half-sister to multiple juvenile stakes-placed sprinter Boston Brahmin (3-23, 89K, 1-8 at two, 3-19 sprinting).   The July 10 workout matches up with trainer Mark Casse's 6-year-old Pool Play (102 Beyer top).  The July 10 and July 24 workouts match Casse's juvenile Saturday Classic (entered in today's sixth race).  Casse is 4-16 (25%, $2.03 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (0-2 at Saratoga).  Casse is 7-33 (21%, $1.71 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

TIMELY TALLY (Mr. Greeley - Score, by A.P. Indy, March 7, 2009 in Kentucky, $220,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Grade 3 sprint winner (5-16, 474K, 2-6 at two, 4-11 sprinting) that is 35-326 (11%) with juvenile debut runners (1-34, 3%, $0.13 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, juvenile debut winner).  The dam was unplaced (0-2, 1K, 0-2 sprinting) and has foaled 1 winner from 1 runner (1-1 with sprinters).  The dam is a full sister to stakes-winning router Strategy (4-16, 220K, 0-1 sprinting) and is a half-sister to stakes-winning turfer Consequence (2-15, 221K, 1-3 at two, won debut, 0-3 sprinting).  Trainer Ian Wilkes is 1-36 (3%, $1.13 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (1-4, 25%, $10.20 ROI at Saratoga).  Wilkes is 0-22 with all debut runners in 2011.

GIANT SURPRISE (Giant's Causeway - Twisted Sis, by A.P. Indy, April 16, 2009 in Kentucky, $130,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Group 1 turf winner (9-13, 3.0M, 3-3 at two) that is 16-189 (8%) with juvenile debut runners (6-35, 17%, $3.16 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 juvenile debut winner).  The Giant's Causeway - A.P. Indy breeding 'nick' has produced Grade 3 route winner Worth Repeating (3-19, 199K, 0-3 at two, 0-1 sprinting). The dam was unplaced (0-1, 1K) and this is her first starter.  The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winning sprinter A New Twist (5-11, 284K, 1-3 at two, won debut, 5-11 sprinting), stakes-placed juvenile Fleet Deputy (3-32, 96K, 0-3 at two, 1-17 sprinting),  multiple Grade 2-placed Awesome Twist (5-20, 319K, 5-12 sprinting) and stakes-placed router Shafted (4-16, 81K, 1-2 at two, won debut, 2-6 sprinting).  Trainer Todd Pletcher is 58-265 (22%, $1.57 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (17-83 (20%, $1.74 ROI at Saratoga).  Pletcher is 18-70 (25%, $1.84 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

OFFICER PRADO (Officer - Prado Lady, by El Prado, May 4, 2009 in Texas) is by a Grade 1 route winner at two (6-9, 804K, 5-8 at two, 5-5 sprinting) that is 97-540 (18%) with juvenile runners.  The dam was a winner (4-12, 40K, 3-7 sprinting) and has foaled 2 winners from 4 runners (0-2 with juveniles, 1-4 with sprinters).  The second dam is stakes-placed sprinter Jaded Lady (3-16, 98K, 3-13 sprinting).  Trainer Steve Asmussen is 62-184 (34%, $2.43 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles in maiden special weight dirt sprints (8-20, 40%, $3.73 ROI at Saratoga).  Rallied for fourth behind a well-supported winner at Churchill Downs.  The runner-up from that race returned to finish fifth in the Grade 2 Sanford.

DOCTORIOUS (Smart Strike - Dandanna, by Linamix, February 2, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a Grade 1 route winner (6-8, 337K, 2-3 sprinting) that is 147-852 (17%) with juvenile runners.  The dam was a juvenile debut winner on turf in England (1-1, 8K) and has foaled 2 winners from 5 runners (1-2 with juveniles, 0-3 with sprinters).  Doctorious is a half-brother to multiple British stakes-placed turfer Centaurus (2-14, 54K, 1-1 at two).  The dam is a half-sister to Group 2 turf winner Courteous (3-16, 349K, 1-2 at two) and British stakes-winner Scriptwriter (7-24, 175K, 0-2 at two).  Trainer Wayne Lukas is 0-10 over the past five years with second-time juveniles adding Lasix in maiden special weight dirt sprints (0-5 at Saratoga). Made a nice move on the turn in his debut, but wasn't smooth with his lead changes. 

A CAT THAT FLIES (Fusaichi Pegasus - Sweet Sarah, by Deputy Minister, February 20, 2009 in Kentucky, Withdrawn Keeneland September yearling) is by a Grade 1 route winner (6-9, 1.9M, 0-1 at two, 1-2 sprinting) that is 23-240 (10%) with juvenile debut runners (1-29, 3%, $0.32 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, juvenile debut winner).  The dam was unplaced (0-5, 2K, 0-5 at two, 0-2 sprinting) and has foaled 2 winners from 3 runners (0-2 with juveniles, 1-3 with sprinters).  A Cat That Flies is a full brother to stakes-placed router Amped (2-16, 122K, 0-1 at two, 0-1 sprinting).  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed turfer Krista's Quik Chic (2-14, 81K, 0-3 sprinting).  The July 18 workout matches trainer Nick Zito's juvenile Mr. Continental (finished sixth in career debut here on July 23 with 43 Beyer).  Zito is 16-128 (13%, $2.03 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (9-64, 14%, $1.87 ROI at Saratoga).  Zito is 1-27 (3%, $0.56 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

INVOCATION (Pulpit - Missamerica Bertie, by Quiet American, Foaled February 14, 2009 in Kentucky, $240,000 RNA Fasig-Tipton Select August yearling, Out Keeneland September yearling, $250,000 Fasig-Tipton February juvenile, Out Keeneland April juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.2 prior to the February auction.  He is by a multiple Grade 2 route winner (4-6, 728K, 1-1 sprinting) that is 38-292 (13%) with juvenile debut runners (3-19, 16%, $1.24 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 older winner out of a Quiet American mare).  The dam was placed routing (0-4, 7K) and this is her first starter.  The dam is a half-sister to Grade 2 winner Hurricane Bertie (14-35, 904K, 2-7 at two, won debut, 13-32 sprinting), stakes-placed sprinter My Poppy Bert (10-52, 228K, 1-2 at two, won debut, 9-47 sprinting), and multiple Grade 2 winner Allamerican Bertie (8-14, 799K, 1-3 sprinting).  The June 30 workout matches trainer John Kimmel's juvenile Rutherford B. (finished eighth in career debut at Belmont on July 14 with 12 Beyer).  The July 8 workout went .02 slower than Rutherford B.  Kimmel is 7-52 (13%, $2.09 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (3-19, 16%, $3.22 ROI at Saratoga).  Kimmel is 0-6 with all debut runners in 2011.

DIXIE MINISTER (Dixie Union - Kelli Lee, by Kris S., March 5, 2009 in Kentucky, $110,000 Fasig-Tipton Select August yearling) is by a multiple Grade 1 winner (7-12, 1.2M, 4-6 at two, 5-7 sprinting) that is 114-720 (16%) with juvenile runners.  The dam was a sprint winner in the slop (1-7, 36K, 0-1 at two, 1-3 sprinting) and has foaled 1 winner from 2 runners (0-2 with juveniles, 0-2 with sprinters).  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed turfer River God (4-6, 149K, 1-1 at two), Grade 2 route winner Minister Eric (3-13, 562K, 1-5 at two, 1-5 sprinting) and stakes-placed router Pitched Perfectly (3-20, 134K, 1-3 at two, 0-1 sprinting).  Trainer Dallas Stewart is 0-1 over the past five years with second-time juveniles removing blinkers in maiden special weight dirt sprints.  Exits a key race (the winner returned to take the Tyro Stakes at Monmouth with a 79 Beyer), but raced very greenly.

LOSTANDFOUNDAGAIN (Lost Soldier - Bank On Ashley, by Banker's Gold, May 2, 2009 in New York, $2,500 RNA Fasig-Tipton Select October yearling) is by a Grade 3 winner (11-45, 434K, 2-4 at two, won debut, 0-4 sprinting) that is 18-207 (9%) with juvenile debut runners (1-10, 10%, $0.86 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, older winner).  The dam was unraced and this is her first starter.  The third dam is Grade 2-placed turfer Double Jeux. Trainer Ernest Smith is 0-1 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints.  He is 0-8 with all debut runner since January 1, 2008.

Selections:
1. Stealcase
2. Timely Tally
3. Giant Surprise

The Play:
Stealcase to Win at 2-1 odds or greater.