07/28/2011 5:15PM

Saratoga: Spa Babies for July 29, Race 9

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Welcome to Spa Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile contest at the meet and hope for a tidy profit.

In past years, I would list the stats for each horse before writing up my analysis, selections and wagering strategy. In order to streamline the content, this year's Spa Babies will showcase written analyses of each juvenile race. Each analysis will include relevant statistical information. Following the analysis, top three selections and wagering strategy will be provided.

Thursday's result:
Race 5:  Crazy Party finished first

Friday, July 29, 2011
Race 9

5 1/2 Furlongs
Maiden Claiming ($50,000)
2-year-old fillies
Purse $29,000

Analysis:

BUCCELLA (Corinthian - Western Tempest, by Gone West, March 5, 2009 in Kentucky, Withdrawn Keeneland November weanling, $50,000 OBS Select March juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.2 prior to the March auction.  She is by a Grade 1 route winner (6-12, 1.2M, 1-2 at two, 0-1 sprinting) that is 0-10 with juvenile debut runners from his first crop of 2011.  The dam was unraced and has 1 winner from 2 runners (1-2 with juveniles, winner in Peru).  The dam is a half-sister to Grade 3 route winner Windrush (5-14, 219K, 2-6 at two, 1-3 sprinting). The June 21 workout matches trainer Rick Dutrow Jr.'s 3-year-old filly Celebrity Sighting (finished second in $50,000 starter allowance at Belmont on June 29 with 80 Beyer).  Dutrow is 14-60 (23%, $2.11 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden claiming dirt sprints (3-9, 33%, $2.86 ROI at Saratoga).  He is 2-12 (17%, $1.52 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

ANGEL LOVE (Corinthian - Open Story, by Open Forum, March 26, 2009 in Kentucky, Withdrawn Keeneland November weanling, Out Keeneland September yearling, $30,000 claim May juvenile) is by a Grade 1 route winner (6-12, 1.2M, 1-2 at two, 0-1 sprinting) that is 0-13 with juveniles from his first crop of 2011.  The dam, a $60,000 juvenile, was a stakes-winning sprinter at two (1-12, 76K, 1-8 at two, 1-12 sprinting) that has foaled 2 winners from 4 runners (2-4 with juveniles, 2-4 with sprinters).  Angel Love is a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed Love Buzz (1-21, 86K, 1-12 at two, 1-12 sprinting). The second dam is stakes-winning juvenile Diablo's Story (3-15, 195K, 2-8 at two, 1-8 sprinting).  Trainer Michael Maker is 1-1 (100%, $4.00 ROI) over the past five years with second off-the-claim juveniles in dirt sprint maiden claimers.  Angel Love improved in her first start off the Maker claim.  The winner of that race returned to finish second in a $25,000 stakes races at the Lincoln Fair in Nebraska with a 34 Beyer.

HARBOR MIST (Rockport Harbor - Jaramar Miss, by Risen Star, February 13, 2009 in New York, $40,000 New York Mixed October weanling) is by a juvenile Grade 2 route winner (5-8, 324K, 4-4 at two, 2-2 sprinting) that is 8-83 (10%) with juvenile debut runners (4-36, 11%, $0.88 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 2 juvenile debut winners).  The dam, an $18,000 weanling, was a juvenile sprint winner (1-13, 22K, 1-9 at two, 1-9 sprinting) that has foaled 9 winners from 9 runners (1-5 with juveniles, 5-9 with sprinters).  Harbor Mist is a half-sister to stakes-winning router Jaramar Rain (5-23, 292K, 0-1 at two, 0-1 sprinting).  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winning juvenile So Cozy (2-4, 32K, 2-3 at two), stakes-winning sprinter Special Power (12-34, 173K, 3-8 at two, 12-32 sprinting) and French juvenile stakes-placed turfer Wezzo.  The June 8, June 15, June 22, June 30 and July 7 workouts match trainer Phil Serpe's juvenile filly Pure Gossip (finished first in career debut here on July 22 with 66 Beyer).  Serpe is 2-6 (33%, $8.10 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden claiming dirt sprints (2-5, 40%, $9.72 ROI at Saratoga).  He is 1-6 (17%, $12.67 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011 (juvenile debut winner at the meet).

PURSES GALORE (Successful Appeal - Evening Stroll, by Johannesburg, April 18 in Kentucky, $20,000 Keeneland November weanling, $60,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Grade 2 winner (8-22, 654K, 3-6 at two, 7-13 in main track sprints) that is 129-599 (22%) with juveniles.  The dam, a $135,000 weanling, was unraced and this is her first foal.  This is the female family of multiple Grade 1 winner Devil His Due (11-41, 3.2M, 2-5 sprinting). Trainer Eddie Kenneally is 2-14 (14%, $0.87 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles in maiden claiming dirt sprints (0-2 at Saratoga).  Purses Galore was no match for a favored winner in his debut at Churchill.  Of the six horses to run back from that race, four returned to hit the board (60 Beyer top).  Purses Galore should be forwardly-placed and fits nicely here.

TORCHME (Gimmeawink - Torchera, by Pirate's Bounty, April 21, 2009 in Florida, $14,000 RNA Keeneland September yearling) is by multiple stakes-winner (9-23, 531K, 3-5 at two, 5-8 sprinting) that is 26-185 (14%) with juveniles.  The dam was a multiple stakes-placed sprinter (3-15, 122K, 0-3 at two, 3-13 sprinting) that has foaled 4 winners from 8 runners (0-5 with juveniles, 1-5 with sprinters).  Torchme is a half-sister to Grade 1 route winner Da' Tara (2-19, 743K, 0-2 at two, 0-3 sprinting).  The dam is a full sister to stakes-placed juvenile Tough Job (16-63, 141K, 1-5 at two, 15-54 sprinting), Grade 1 winner Private Persuasion (8-24, 502K, 2-7 at two, 3-9 sprinting), and stakes-winning sprinter Sound Wisdom (3-13, 145K, 1-1 at two, 3-12 sprinting).  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed It's So Simple (9-66, 388K, 1-3 at two, 0-8 sprinting) and stakes-winner Wishful Splendor (5-22, 271K, 0-2 at two, 0-4 sprinting). Trainer John Salzman Jr. is 1-2 (50%, $4.80 ROI) over the past five years with second-time starters adding blinkers in dirt sprints.  Torchme was getting to the favored winner in his debut and adds blinkers for crafty Mid-Atlantic barn.

TRUST N MADAM (Trust N Luck - Sweetsouthernmadam, by Sweetsouthernsaint, April 11, 2009 in Florida) is by a Grade 1 route winner (5-12, 727K, 4-8 at two, 2-6 sprinting) that is 24-196 (12%) with juveniles.  The dam was unplaced (0-1, $220, 0-1 sprinting) that has foaled 0 winners from 2 runners (0-1 with juveniles, 0-2 with sprinters).  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed juvenile Kipski (10-106, 178K, 2-9 at two, 10-98 sprinting).  Trainer David Fawkes is 0-6 over the past five years with second-time juveniles dropping from maiden special weights in dirt sprints.  Trust N Madam didn't have an easy trip in her debut when in against Awesome Belle (returned to finish second in the $100,000 J J's Dream Stakes at Calder with a 61 Beyer).

CAVIAR N CHAMPAGNE (Formal Dinner - Arctic Dove, by Dove Hunt, March 8, 2009 in Ohio, $13,000 OBS Open, August yearling) is by a multiple Grade 3 winner (7-39, 454K, 2-10 at two, 5-25 sprinting) that is 196-1392 (14%) with juveniles.  The dam, a $15,000 yearling and $42,000 juvenile, was a juvenile route winner (1-15, 36K, 1-4 at two, 0-9 sprinting) that has foaled 1 winner from 2 runners (1-2 with juveniles, 1-2 with sprinters).  Caviar N Champagne is a full sister to stakes-winning sprinter Paizano (3-8, 70K, 1-3 at two, 3-7 sprinting).  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winner The Bourse (7-38, 136K, 5-26 sprinting), stakes-placed juvenile Artic Alert (9-69, 203K, 3-9 at two, 8-57 sprinting) and stakes-winner Frozen Dinner (3-18, 105K, 2-9 at two, 2-6 sprinting). Trainer Allen Iwinski is 0-1 over the past five years with second-time juveniles dropping from maiden special weights in dirt sprints.  Caviar N Champagne looms a pace factor in this spot.

DOWNHILL JOEY (Henny Hughes - Lil Cozette, by Kris S., March 30, 2009 in Kentucky, $70,000 Keeneland January short yearling, $100,000 Fasig-Tipton Select August yearling, $62,000 OBS Select March juvenile) worked a furlong in 10.1 prior to the March auction.  She is by a multiple Grade 1 sprint winner (6-10, 1.1M, 3-6 at two, 6-8 sprinting) that is 23-132 (17%) with juveniles.  The dam, a $375,000 yearling, was unplaced (0-2, 0-1 sprinting) that has foaled 4 winners from 7 runners (2-4 with juveniles, 2-6 with sprinters).  Downhill Joey is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winning turfer Cosmic Kris (4-35, 249K, 0-3 at two, 0-1 sprinting) and multiple stakes-placed sprinter Foret (3-15, 71K, 1-4 at two, 2-10 sprinting).  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed juvenile Doc Wild (6-33, 191K, 1-3 at two, 3-12 sprinting) and Grade 3 winner Final Fling (2-9, 181K, 1-3 at two, 1-5 sprinting).  Trainer Rick Violette is 1-6 (17%, $1.46 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles dropping from maiden special weights in dirt sprints (0-1 at Saratoga).  Downhill Joey raced greenly when in against a runaway winner and should appreciate the class relief (the third- and fourth-finishers from the debut returned to win).

WESLEY'S AUNTS (Montbrook - Catch the Ghost, by Silver Ghost, May 5, 2009 in Kentucky, $30,000 OBS Select March juvenile) worked 2 furlongs in 22.0 prior to the March auction.  She is by a multiple Grade 3 sprint winner (5-8, 373K, 5-7 sprinting) that is 36-322 (11%) with juvenile debut runners (2-12, 17%, $4.58 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 juvenile debut winner).  The dam was a sprint winner (1-6, 8K, 0-2 at two, 1-5 sprinting) that has foaled 4 winners from 6 runners (2-4 with juveniles, 1 juvenile debut winner, 3-6 with sprinters).  Wesley's Aunts is a full sister to juvenile stakes-winning sprinter Phantom Income (2-9, 169K, 2-5 at two, won debut, 2-8 sprinting).  The dam is a half-sister to juvenile Grade 1 sprint winner City Zip (9-23, 803K, 5-11 at two, 9-16 sprinting) and multiple Grade 1 winner Ghostzapper (9-11, 3.4M, 1-2 at two, won debut, 5-7 sprinting). The June 23 workout matches trainer Merrill Scherer's juvenile filly Kathy's in Charge (finished seventh in lone career start over polytrack at Keeneland). Scherer is 1-30 (3%, $1.45 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden claiming dirt sprints (0-4 at Saratoga).  He is 1-13 (7%, $1.02 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

BYE LOVE YOU (Stevie Wonderboy - Touch of Joy, by Crafty Prospector, March 3, 2009 in Kentucky, $20,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a juvenile Grade 1 route winner (3-6, 1.0M, 3-5 at two, 2-4 sprinting) that is 0-8 with juvenile debut runners from his first crop of 2011.  The dam was a sprint winner (2-9, 16K, 2-9 sprinting) that has foaled 3 winners from 4 runners (2-3 with juveniles, 2-3 with sprinters).  Bye Love You is a half-brother to multiple stakes-winner Sea the Joy (5-22, 188K, 3-5 at two, 3-10 sprinting).  The second dam is stakes-winner Fairway Style (5-24, 84K, 1-4 sprinting).  Trainer Ken McPeek is 3-18 (17%, $1.05 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden claiming dirt sprints (1-2, 50%, $3.35 ROI at Saratoga).  McPeek is 3-39 (7%, $0.80 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

MY VIVA LOCA (Chapter One - Sassy Sails, by Captain Bodgit, January 29, 2009 in Florida) is the first starter from an unraced sire's first crop of runners in 2011.  The dam, a $25,000 short yearling and $30,000 yearling, was unraced and has foaled 2 winners from 2 runners (2-2 with juveniles, 2-2 with sprinters).  This is the female family of Belmont Stakes winner Stage Door Johnny (5-8, 223K, 0-2 at two, 0-2 sprinting).  The July 12 workout matches entry mate One Lovely Lady.  Trainer John Quiles is 0-1 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in dirt sprints.  He is 0-16 since January 1, 2004 with all debut runners.

ONE LOVELY LADY (Formal Dinner - Design Appeal, by Honour and Glory, February 7, 2009 in Florida) is by a multiple Grade 3 winner (7-39, 454K, 2-10 at two, 5-25 sprinting) that is 30-310 (10%) with juvenile debut runners (0 debut winners in 2011)  The dam, a $15,000 yearling, was unraced and has foaled 1 winner from 3 runners (1-2 with juveniles, 1-3 with sprinters).  The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Timeless Design (18-71, 404K, 2-6 at two, won debut, 4-21 sprinting).  The July 12 workout matches entry mate My Viva Loca. Trainer John Quiles is 0-1 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in dirt sprints.  He is 0-16 since January 1, 2004 with all debut runners.

EXPECT THUNDER (Thunder Gulch - Expected, by Concern, May 2, 2009 in Kentucky, $1,500 Fasig-Tipton Winter February short yearling, $4,000 RNA Fasig-Tipton Select October yearling) is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (9-16, 2.9M, 2-6 at two, 1-3 sprinting) that is 31-346 (9%) with juvenile debut runners (1-29, 3%, $1.00 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, older winner).  The dam was unraced and has foaled 0 winners from 3 runners (0-2 with sprinters).  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed Bawdens (6-48, 152K, 0-1 at two, 0-13 sprinting) and stakes-placed sprinter Hillswick (5-22, 209K, 5-17 sprinting). Trainer Joe Aquilino is 0-12 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden claiming dirt sprints (0-3 at Saratoga).  Aquilino is 1-55 (1%, $1.35 ROI) since January 1, 2006 with all debut runners.

Selections:
1. Buccella
2. Angel Love
3. Harbor Mist

The Play:
Buccella to win and place at 9-2 odds or greater

* Meet record based on starts, wins, top pick (after scratches) in the money, and profit/loss of that day's play ($2 wager, scheduled surface only): 11-4-5 (-$21.70)