07/27/2011 7:52PM

Saratoga Spa Babies for July 28, Race 5

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Welcome to Spa Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile contest at the meet and hope for a tidy profit.

In past years, I would list the stats for each horse before writing up my analysis, selections and wagering strategy.
In order to streamline the content, this year's Spa Babies will showcase written analyses of each juvenile race.
Each analysis will include relevant statistical information.  Following the analysis, top three selections and wagering strategy will be provided.

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Wednesday's results:
Race 3:  J C'S PRIDE finished first
Race 5:  WOODS HOLE finished eighth

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Race 5
1 1/16 Miles (Turf)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-old fillies
Purse $51,000

 

ANALYSIS:

CRAZY PARTY (A.P. Indy - Wakigoer, by Miswaki, May 1, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (8-11, 2.9M, 3-4 at two) that is 42-376 (11%) with juvenile debut runners (3-24, 13%, $1.86 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 older winner on turf at this meet) and 53-480 (11%) with first-turf runners.  The dam was a turf winner in France (1-10, 37K, 0-4 at two, 1-8 on turf) and has foaled 4 winners from 6 runners (3-4 with juveniles, 2 juvenile debut winners, 4-5 with turfers,  2 first-turf winners).  Crazy Party is a half-sister to French Group 3 turf winner Acago (3-15, 165K, 1-5 at two, won debut, first-turf winner, 3-14 on turf), French Group 3 juvenile turf winner Quiet Royal (5-20, 435K, 2-5 at two, 5-19 on turf), and French Group 3 juvenile turf winner Sandwaki (3-7, 131K, 3-5 at two, won debut, 3-7 on turf, first-turf winner).  The dam is a half-sister to multiple Grade 1 route winner Dare and Go (7-22, 1.6M, 3-4 at two, won debut, 4-11 on turf, first-turf winner), French multiple stakes-placed Going Green (2-51, 82K, 0-3 at two, 1-20 on turf) and Grade 1 turf winner Go Deputy (6-19, 1.1M, 6-19 on turf).  Pletcher is 10-68 (15%, $1.05 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf routes (8-33, 24%, $1.87 ROI at Saratoga).  Pletcher is 17-68 (25%, $1.78 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011 (1-8, 13%, $2.18 ROI in turf routes).

HONEY TALK (Distorted Humor - Sweet Talker, by Stormin Fever, May 1, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a multiple Grade 2 sprint winner (8-23, 769K) that is 151-858 (18%) with juveniles and 34-367 (9%) with first-time turfers. The dam, a $50,000 weanling, was a Grade 1 turf winner (9-18, 1.0M, 3-5 at two, 7-12 on turf, first-turf winner) and has foaled 1 winner from 2 runners (1-2 with juveniles, 1-1 with turfers).  Honey Talk is a full sister to Grade 3-placed turfer Perregaux (2-7, 85K, 2-5 at two, 1-6 on turf). The dam is a half-sister to Grade 3 router Silver Medallion (3-8, 282K, 2-5 at two, 2-4 on turf, first-turf winner).  The July 13 workout matches trainer Neil Howard's 6-year-old Hidden Glance (87 Beyer top on turf).  The July 19 workout matches Howard s 4-year-old Mine Train (86 Beyer on synthetic, 81 on dirt).  Howard is 0-3 over the past five years with second-time juveniles going dirt to turf and sprint to route in maiden special weights (0-2 at Saratoga).  He is 0-32 over the past two years with first-time turf performers.  Let's toss the poor dirt debut as she is bred to go long on the grass.

SOUTHERN DRIFTER (Dixie Union - Excellentadventure, by Slew City Slew, February 8, 2009 in Kentucky, $270,000 Keeneland November weanling) is by a multiple Grade 1 winner (7-12, 1.2M, 4-6 at two) that is 114-719 (16%) with juveniles and 20-220 (9%) with first-time turfers.  The dam, a $180,000 yearling, was a sprint winner (1-4, 15K, 0-1 at two) and has foaled 2 winners from 4 runners (1-3 with juveniles, 1-3 with turfers, 1 first-turf winner).  Southern Drifter is a three-quarter sister to multiple stakes-winning juvenile sprinter Excellent Band (4-27, 161K, 4-5 at two, 0-1 on turf).  The dam is a full sister to Grade 2 juvenile route winner Evansville Slew (5-7, 338K, 5-6 at two).  The July 19 workout matches up with trainer Wayne Lukas' 4-year-old Northern Giant (89 Beyer on synthetic, 83 Beyer on turf).  The July 25 workout matches up with Lukas' 4-year-old filly Glowing Report (88 Beyer on dirt, 73 on synthetics).  Lukas is 0-1 over the past five years with second-time juveniles adding Lasix and going from dirt to turf (0-1 at Saratoga).  He is 3-70 (4%, $1.43 ROI) over the past year with juvenile runners.  Finished behind Illegally Blonde at Churchill, but adds Lasix for the stretch-out and may show improved early speed.

ILLEGALLY BLONDE (Mineshaft - Unbridled's Pride, by Unbridled, March 25, 2009 in Kentucky, $160,000 Fasig-Tipton Summer July yearling, Out Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (10-18, 2.2M, 1-7 on turf) that is 48-309 (16%) with juveniles and 6-90 (7%) with first-time turfers.  The dam, a $500,000 yearling, was a first-turf winner (1-8, 30K, 1-7 on turf) and has foaled 1 winner from 2 runners, (0-1 with juveniles, 0-1 with turfers).  The dam is a half-sister to Grade 3-placed turfer Perfect Copy (3-13, 132K, 3-13 on turf) and Grade 3-placed Stealin' Kisses (2-26, 104K, 0-2 at two, 1-13 on turf).  Trainer Ken McPeek is 2-10 (20%, $1.22 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles going sprint to route and turf to dirt in maiden special weight (0-4 at Saratoga). Illegally Blond came with a strong late run after breaking poorly in her career debut on dirt at Churchill Downs and is bred to appreciate this longer distance.  The runner-up from that race returned to finish third in a maiden special weight here with a 52 Beyer. 

FORMATIVE  (Dynaformer - Formal Approval, by Kingmambo, March 27, 2009 in Kentucky, $170,000 Fasig-Tipton Fall November weanling, $130,000 RNA Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Grade 2 winner (7-30, 671K, 1-5 at two, 2-7 on turf) that is 39-378 (10%) with juvenile debut runners (2-22, 9%, $0.40 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, both older winners, 1 on turf) and 101-720 (14%) with first-time turfers.  The Dynaformer - Kingmambo breeding 'nick' has produced German champion Wiener Walzer (4-14, 775K, 0-1 at two, 4-14 on turf), British champion Ocean Silk (4-22, 370K, 0-1 at two, 4-21 on turf) and Grade 1 turf winner Gozzip Girl (5-14, 814K, 1-2 at two, 5-12 on turf).  The dam was placed on turf overseas (0-6, 5K, 0-6 on turf) and has foaled 0 winners from 2 runners (0-1 with juveniles, 0-2 with turfers). The dam is a half-sister to Japanese stakes-winner Maruka Diesis (5-24, 1.3M), French Group 3 juvenile turf winner Woodland Melody (3-4, 57K, 3-3 at two, 3-4 on turf), and British Group 3 juvenile turf winner Saintly Speech (2-2, 43K, 2-2 at two, 2-2 on turf).  Trainer Bill Mott is 5-57 (9%, $0.69 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf routes (2-22, 9%, $0.51 ROI at Saratoga).  He is 3-30 (10%, $1.71 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011 (1-13, 7%, $1.98 ROI in turf routes). 

TIANA (Offlee Wild - Creme de La Creme, by Vettori, April 15, 2009 in Kentucky $37,000 RNA Keeneland September yearling, $27,000 RNA OBS Spring April juvenile) worked a furlong in 10.4 prior to the April auction.  She is by a Grade 1 route winner (6-19, 976K, 1-3 at two) that is 38-214 (18%) with juveniles and 9-104 (9%) with turfers.  The dam, a $114,187 yearling, was unplaced (0-8, 3K, 0-6 on turf) and has foaled 2 winners from 3 runners (2-3 with juveniles, 2-3 with turfers).  Tiana is a half-sister to French juvenile turf stakes-winner Chantilly Creme (2-6, 88K, 2-6 at two, 2-6 on turf).  The dam is a half-sister to French Group 3 juvenile turf winner via Milano (3-11, 131K). Trainer Rick Dutrow Jr. is 1-7 (14%, $0.81 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles going from sprint to routes in maiden special weights on grass (1-5, 20%, $1.14 ROI at Saratoga).  Tiana didn't have the easiest journey in her debut and can improve second-out as she stretches out in distance while picking up Ramon Dominguez.  The runner-up from the debut returned to finish third with a 57 Beyer.

LA CAPELLA (Smart Strike - Venetian Glass, by Deputy Minister, March 16, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a Grade 1 route winner (6-8, 337K) that is 48-323 (15%) with juvenile debut runners (6-31, 19%, $1.57 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 2 juvenile debut winners, 1 older winner on turf) and 54-502 (11%) with first-turf runners.  The Smart Strike - Deputy Minister breeding 'nick' has produced two-time Horse of the Year Curlin (11-16, 10.5M, 0-1 on turf) and Grade 2 route winner Tenpins (9-17, 1.1M).  The dam, a $300,000 yearling, was placed (0-13, 39K, 0-6 on turf) and has foaled 2 winners from 2 runners (0-1 with 2yos, 1-1 with turfers).  The dam is a half-sister to French juvenile stakes-winning turfer Red Monsoon (5-42, 127K, 1-2 at two, 1-12 on turf), Grade 2 sprint winner Esteemed Friend (20-69, 805K, 2-7 at two, won debut, 0-1 on turf) and Grade 2 turf winner Badouizm (4-17, 242K, 0-3 at two, 4-14 on turf). The June 29 workout matches trainer Steve Asmussen's juvenile filly M. Antoinette (finished third in career debut on turf at Ellis Park on July 23 with 36 Beyer).  The June 29, July 6 and July 12 workouts match Asmussen's juvenile filly Morning Shine (finished first in career debut on dirt here on July 25 with 73 Beyer).  The July 6 workout went .05 slower than Asmussen's 3-year-old filly Malibu Cougar (finished fourth in maiden special weight on dirt here on July 25 with 38 Beyer).  Asmussen is 0-11 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf routes (0-1 at Saratoga).  Asmussen is 10-95 (10%, $1.20 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.  He is 0-41 since January 1, 1993 with all debut runners in turf routes.

REGALO MIA (Sligo Bay - Shake It Up, by Red Bullet, February 20, 2009 in Florida) is by a Grade 1 turf winner (4-17, 484K, 1-5 at two, 4-17 on turf) that is 4-68 (6%) with juvenile debut runners (0 debut winners in 2011) and 9-105 (9%) with first-time turfers.  The dam was placed sprinting (0-2, 4K) and this is her first starter.  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winner Hot Talent (5-10, 387K, 4-8 on turf, first-turf winner).  Trainer Michelle Nihei is 0-1 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in turf routes.  She is 1-15 (6%, $0.81 ROI) since January 1, 2010 with all debut runners and 0-8 with all debut runners in turf routes since January 1, 2009.

VAPOUR MUSING (GB) (Manduro - Miss University, by Beau Genius, February 5, 2009 in Great Britain, $83,438 RNA Tattersalls October yearling) is by a multiple Group 1 turf winner in Europe (10-18, 1.9M, 2-2 at two, 10-18 on turf, first-turf winner) that is 0-12 (in Great Britain and Ireland) with his first crop of juveniles (0-12 on turf).  The dam, twice sold for $20,000 as a yearling, was unplaced in England (0-2, 0-2 on turf) and has foaled 3 winners from 5 runners (0-4 with juveniles, 2-4 with turfers).  Vapour Musing is a half-sister to Grade 2 turf winner Three Degrees (3-16, 490K, 0-2 at two, 3-15 on turf).  The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed Carols Inheritance (6-45, 135K, 1-9 at two, won debut, 0-6 on turf), multiple stakes-placed Stuteously (3-44, 69K, 0-10 at two), multiple stakes-winning sprinter Reissaurus (5-31, 111K, 2-7 at two, 0-1 on turf), and Panamanian multiple stakes-placed Go Country (15-34, 47K, 4-5 at two). The June 30, July 7 and July 22 workouts match trainer Graham Motion's juvenile filly Zucchini Flower (finished fourth in career debut over the Tapeta surface at Presque Isle Downs on July 26 with 31 Beyer).  The July 7 workout matches Motion's juvenile State of Play (finished first in career debut on turf at Saratoga on July 27 with ??? Beyer).  Motion is 0-15 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf routes (0-4 at Saratoga).  Motion is 2-20 (10%, $1.49 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011 (1-5, 20%, $4.16 ROI in turf routes).  

SALSA MAMBO (Include - Miss Special Salsa, by Mr. Greeley, March 25, 2009 in Kentucky, $14,000 RNA Keeneland November weanling, $10,000 OBS Open August yearling, $35,000 OBS Spring April juvenile) worked a furlong in 10.1 prior to the April auction.  She is by a Grade 1 route winner (10-20, 1.6M, 0-2 at two, 1-3 sprinting) that is 78-505 (15%) with juveniles.  The Include - Mr. Greeley breeding 'nick' has produced Grade 3-placed router Infrattini (1-5, 69K, 0-1 at two, 0-1 sprinting).  The dam, a $230,000 weanling and $145,000 juvenile, was unraced and has foaled 1 winner from 2 runners (0-1 with juveniles, 1-2 with sprinters).  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed Four Song Limit (2-11, 81K, 0-5 at two, 0-3 sprinting) and stakes-winning router Victoryasecret (7-17, 184K, 0-1 at two, 1-2 sprinting).  Trainer Gary Contessa is 9-52 (17%, $1.39 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles in maiden special weight dirt sprints (1-13, 8%, $0.98 ROI) at Saratoga.

Selections:
1. Crazy Party
2. Illegally Blonde
3. Southern Drifter

The Play:
Crazy Party - Honey Talk Exacta
Crazy Party - Southern Drifter Exacta

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*Meet record based on starts, wins, top pick (after scratches) in the money, and profit/loss of that day's play ($2 wager, scheduled surface only): 10-3-5 (-$17.70)