07/26/2011 4:47PM

Saratoga: Spa Babies for July 27, Race 5

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Welcome to Spa Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile contest at the meet and hope for a tidy profit.

In past years, I would list the stats for each horse before writing up my analysis, selections and wagering strategy. In order to streamline the content, this year's Spa Babies will showcase written analyses of each juvenile race. Each analysis will include relevant statistical information. Following the analysis, top three selections and wagering strategy will be provided.

 

Race 5:
5 1/2 Furlongs (Turf)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-olds
Purse $50,000

Analysis:

WOODS HOLE (Kitalpha - Divine Wine, by Father Steve, March 24, 2009 in Kentucky, Out Keeneland September yearling) is by an unraced sire that is 1-5 (20%, $1.32 ROI) with juvenile debut runners from his first crop of North American runners in 2011. This is the sire's first turf runner in North America. The dam was unplaced (0-4, $700, 0-2 at two) and this is her first starter. The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed juvenile Hold On Chris (4-31, 40K, 2-8 at two, 0-1 on turf), stakes-winner Dinner Affair (6-26, 125K, 1-9 at two, 2-3 on turf), stakes-winner Reporter (17-96, 456K, 2-10 at two, 0-8 on turf) and stakes-placed sprinter Source (12-61, 368K, 0-1 on turf). The June 25 workout matches trainer Todd Pletcher's 3-year-old filly Dance Quietly (finished fourth in the Grade 2 Delaware Oaks on July 9 on dirt with 81 Beyer). The July 3 workout matches Pletcher's 5-year-old Alma d'Oro (finished first in the $100,000 Carpenter Memorial Stakes at Delaware on dirt with a 90 Beyer, 78 Beyer on turf). Pletcher is 4-37 (11%, $0.60 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf sprints (1-9, 11%, $0.96 ROI at Saratoga). Pletcher is 16-61 (26%, $1.87 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011 (1-15, 7%, $1.15 ROI this year on turf). Sire is out of the great turf miler Miesque and had a solid stallion career in Zimbabwe before being imported to the United States.

TIGER WALK (Tale of the Cat - Majestic Trail, by Kris S., April 20, 2009 in Kentucky, Out Keeneland November weanling, Withdrawn Fasig-Tipton Summer July yearling, Out Keeneland September yearling, Withdrawn Fasig-Tipton October yearling) is by a Grade 2 sprint winner (5-9, 360K, 1-1 on turf) that is 71-386 (18%) with juvenile debut runners (10-46, 22%, $2.51 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 5 juvenile debut winners, 1 older winner on turf) and 42-411 (10%) with first-time turfers. The dam was unraced and this is her first starter. The dam is a half-sister to Grade 2 juvenile route winner Supremo (2-7, 228K, 2-6 at two, won debut, 0-1 on turf) and multiple stakes-winner (Germany) Personal Love. Trainer Ignacio Correas IV is 0-3 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf sprints. Correas is 1-5 (20%, $1.04 ROI) with all debut runners (0-2 with turf firsters). Has been working over the synthetic surface at Sagamore Farm.

SITUATIONAL ETHICS (Broken Vow - Ayla Bella, by Touch Gold, January 30, 2009 in Kentucky, $60,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a Grade 2 route winner (9-14, 725K) that is 24-235 (10%) with juvenile debut runners (5-25, 20%, $2.15 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 on turf) and 32-270 (12%) with first-turf runners. The dam, a $150,000 juvenile, was a stakes-winner (7-22, 107K, 0-3 at two, 3-7 on turf, first-turf winner) and this is her first starter. The dam is a half-sister to Group 2-placed juvenile turfer Jobe (3-19, 48K, 1-5 at two, 3-18 on turf) and multiple stakes-winning router Alec's Moon (4-10, 125K, 2-5 at two, 0-1 on turf). The July 4 workout matches trainer Mark Hennig's juvenile filly Proud and Charming (finished fourth in debut on dirt at Saratoga on July 22 with 44 Beyer). Hennig is 2-8 (25%, $7,80 ROI over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf sprints (1-4, 25%, $5.65 ROI) at Saratoga. Hennig is 1-8 (13%, $1.70 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011 (0-1 with turf firsters).

STATE OF PLAY (War Front - Valeta, by Procida, April 29, 2009 in Kentucky, $13,000 Keeneland September yearling, Withdrawn OBS Spring April juvenile) is by a Grade 2 sprint winner (4-13, 424K, 0-1 at two) that is 0-39 with juvenile debut runners (1-16, 6%, $0.40 ROI with all debut runners in 2011) and 5-26 (15%) with first-turf runners. The dam was a turf winner (3-18, 111K, 0-5 at two, 3-11 on turf) and has foaled 5 winners from 5 runners (1-4 with juveniles, 1-5 with turfers). State of Play is a half-brother to stakes-winning sprinter Knoxville (2-8, 74K, 1-5 at two, won debut, 0-1 on turf). The dam is a half-sister to French stakes-placed turfer Winds of Light (5-11, 51K, 1-1 at two, 5-11 on turf). The May 21 workout matches trainer Graham Motion's juvenile filly Inspeight (finished seventh in career debut on dirt at Delaware on July 12 with 0 Beyer). Motion is 4-24 (17%, $1.67 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf sprints (2-4, 50%, $7.75 ROI) at Saratoga. Motion is 1-17 (5%, $1.22 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011 (1-8, 13%, $2.60 ROI with turf firsters).

DOCTOR CHIT (War Front - True Gritz, by Yes It's True, April 11, 2009 in Kentucky, $42,000 Keeneland September yearling, $375,000 OBS Select March juvenile) worked 2 furlongs in 21.1 prior to the March auction. He is by a Grade 2 sprint winner (4-13, 424K, 0-1 at two) that is 0-39 with juvenile debut runners (1-16, 6%, $0.40 ROI with all debut runners in 2011) and 5-26 (15%) with first-turf runners. The dam, a $41,000 juvenile was placed (0-9, 7K) and this is her first starter. This is the female family of multiple Grade 3 sprint winner Mr. Greeley (5-16, 474K, 2-6 at two). The July 12 workout matches trainer Todd Pletcher's juvenile Mr. Style (entered on dirt in today's third race). Pletcher is 4-37 (11%, $0.60 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf sprints (1-9, 11%, $0.96 ROI at Saratoga). Pletcher is 16-61 (26%, $1.87 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011 (1-15, 7%, $1.15 ROI this year on turf). Pletcher's go-to rider takes the mount on this part of the uncoupled entry.

TEN W FORTY (Kitten's Joy - Heavenly Oil, by Golden Missile, April 1, 2009 in Kentucky, $19,000 RNA Fasig-Tipton October yearling) is by a multiple Grade 1 turf winner (9-14, 2.0M, 2-4 at two, 9-12 on turf, first-turf winner) that is 19-97 (20%) with juvenile debut runners (5-38, 13%, $2.41 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 juvenile debut winner, 1 older winner on turf) and 18-120 (15%) with first-turf runners. The dam, a $60,000 yearling, was a juvenile route winner (2-13, 33K, 2-6 at two, 0-3 on turf) and has foaled 1 winner from 1 runner (1-1 with juveniles, debut winner, 1-1 on turf, first-turf winner). This is the female family of multiple Grade 1 winner Dancing Spree (10-35, 1.4M, 0-7 on turf). Trainer Wesley Ward is 1-7 (14%, $1.57 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf sprints (1-1, 100%, $11.00 ROI at Saratoga). Ward is 14-44 (31%, $1.78 ROI) with all debut runners this year (0-3 with turf firsters).

TEXAS JOSH (Istan - Carmrachkim, by Go for Gin, April 1, 2009, Withdrawn Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Grade 3 winner (9-21, 461K, 1-2 at two, 3-8 on turf, first-turf winner) that is 0-3 with juvenile debut runners and is 0-1 with first-turf runners. The dam was a juvenile turf winner (1-8, 21K, 1-3 at two, 1-5 on turf) and this is her first starter. The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winning sprinter She's a Mugs (3-9, 111K, 0-1 at two). Trainer Nick Zito is 0-1 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf sprints. Zito is 1-25 (4%, $0.60 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011. Since January 1, 1991, Zito is 0-33 with first-time starters on turf.

SARK (English Channel - November Snow, by Storm Cat, January 16, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a multiple Grade 1 turf winner (13-23, 5.3M, 1-1 at two, 13-22 on turf, first-turf winner) that is 1-10 (10%) with juvenile runners and 0-3 with turf runners from his first crop of 2011. The dam, a $35,000 yearling, was a multiple Grade 1 winner (8-22, 554K, 3-4 at two) and has foaled 6 winners from 9 runners (1-6 with juveniles, 3-5 with turfers). Sark is a half-brother to Grade 2-placed juvenile November Slew (3-14, 134K, 1-3 at two). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winning router Lady Sorolla (4-17, 202K, 0-2 on turf) and stakes-winning router Scatmandu (6-16, 330K, 1-3 at two). Sark finished a nose behind next-out winner Papa Sid (62 Beyer on turf at Arlington) when the beaten-favorite at Churchill on June 25 (the runner-up from that race returned to run second in the Chenery Stakes on grass at Colonial with a 62 Beyer). Trainer Wayne Lukas is 0-1 over the past five years with juveniles adding Lasix following a 31-60 day layoffs in maiden special weight turf sprints (0-1 at Saratoga). Lukas is 3-70 (4%, $1.43 ROI) with juvenile runners over the past year.

POLITICALLYCORRECT (Kitten's Joy - Exceedexpectations, by Tale of the Cat, May 14, 2009 in Kentucky, Withdrawn Fasig-Tipton Spring May juvenile) is by a multiple Grade 1 turf winner (9-14, 2.0M, 2-4 at two, 9-12 on turf, first-turf winner) that is 19-97 (20%) with juvenile debut runners (5-38, 13%, $2.41 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 juvenile debut winner, 1 older winner on turf) and 18-120 (15%) with first-turf runners. The dam was a sprint winner (2-13, 68K) and this is her first starter. This is the female family of Grade 2 juvenile winner Big Sur (4-25, 323K, 2-8 at two). The July 7 and July 13 workouts match trainer Wesley Ward's juvenile My Man Dan (54 Beyer on dirt). The July 26 workout (3F - 37B) at Monmouth matches Ward's juvenile Raging Daoust (59 Beyer on Tapeta and dirt). Trainer Wesley Ward is 1-7 (14%, $1.57 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf sprints (1-1, 100%, $11.00 ROI at Saratoga). Ward is 14-44 (31%, $1.78 ROI) with all debut runners this year (0-3 with turf firsters).

ARTHUR (Artie Schiller - Janeian, by The Jogger, April 6, 2009 in Kentucky, $32,000 Keeneland September yearling, $150,000 OBS Select March juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.2 prior to the March auction. He is by Grade 1 turf winner (10-22, 2.0M, 2-5 at two, won debut, 10-19 on turf) that is 3-45 (7%) with juvenile debut runners (3-31, 10%, $1.03 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 juvenile debut winner, 1 turf winner) and 9-49 (18%) with first-turf runners. The dam was a Grade 3 turf winner (9-41, 393K, 9-40 on turf) and has foaled 1 winner from 2 runners (1-1 with turfers). Trainer Kathy Ritvo is 0-1 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf sprints. Ritvo is 0-14 since January 1, 2004 with all debut runners (0-5 with turf firsters during that time period.

Selections:
1. Woods Hole
2. Tiger Walk
3. State of Play

The Play:
Woods Hole to Win and Place at 5-1 odds or greater

*Meet record based on starts, wins, top pick (after scratches) in the money, and profit/loss of that day's play ($2 wager, scheduled surface only): 8-2-4 (-$15.60)