07/26/2011 4:41PM

Saratoga: Spa Babies for July 27, Race 3

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Welcome to Spa Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile contest at the meet and hope for a tidy profit.

In past years, I would list the stats for each horse before writing up my analysis, selections and wagering strategy.
In order to streamline the content, this year's Spa Babies will showcase written analyses of each juvenile race.
Each analysis will include relevant statistical information.  Following the analysis, top three selections and wagering strategy will be provided.

Monday's results:
Race 3 - Select Cat finished first
Race 6 - Dancin N Prancin scratched; second-choice Sweet Cat finished second (off-the-turf)

 

Wednesday, July 27, 2011
Race 3

5 Furlongs
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-olds
Purse $50,000

 

Analysis:

J C'S PRIDE (Henny Hughes - Hi Lili, by Silver Deputy, April 16, 2009 in Kentucky, $190,000 Keeneland November weanling, $90,000 Keeneland September yearling, Withdrawn OBS Select March juvenile, $200,000 Fasig-Tipton Spring May juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.1 prior to the March auction. He is by a multiple Grade 1 sprint winner (6-10, 1.1M, 3-6 at two, 6-8 sprinting) that is 22-130 (17%) with juvenile runners. The dam, a $240,000 yearling, was a route winner (1-8, 36K, 0-1 at two, 0-3 sprinting) and has foaled 1 winner from 2 runners (1-1 with 2yos). The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed Bitter Lemon (3-23, 140K, 1-6 at two, 0-3 sprinting), multiple stakes-winning turfer Sales Tax (4-20, 178K, 2-5 at two, 0-1 sprinting) and Grade 3 winner Blind Date (8-17, 357K, 2-3 at two, 3-5 sprinting). Trainer Robert Barbara is 1-47 over the past two years at Saratoga. J C's Pride may have been slightly aided by a speed-favoring track in his debut at Belmont, but it took a 100-Beyer performance from Overdriven (won the Sanford here in his second start) to take him down. He should show high speed once again under Jose Lezcano.

CHALYBEATE SPRINGS (Dynaformer - Chaposa Springs, by Baldski, April 1, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a multiple Grade 2 winner (7-30, 671K, 1-5 at two, 1-4 sprinting) that is 138-1166 (12%) with juvenile runners. The dam, a $75,000 juvenile, was a multiple Grade 1 sprint winner (14-23, 762K, 3-6 at two, 13-16 sprinting) and has foaled 2 winners from 6 runners (1-4 with juveniles). The dam is a half-sister to Grade 1 router You and I (6-16, 701K, 2-2 at two, 4-10 sprinting) and stakes-placed Point Gold (3-30, 90K, 1-2 at two, 1-7 sprinting). Trainer Wayne Lukas is 3-70 (4%, $1.43 ROI) with juvenile runners over the past year. Chalybeate Springs ran into a runaway in his debut at Churchill Downs (the fourth-place finisher of that race returned to finish fourth here on July 23 with a 61 Beyer while the seventh-runner came back go graduate at Ellis Park with a 41 Beyer). Last out, Chalybeate Springs was simply overmatched in the Grade 3 Bashful Manor Stakes. This is a more reasonable spot.

MR. STYLE (Bluegrass Cat - Number One Girl, by Tiznow, February 7, 2009 in Kentucky, $60,000 Fasig-Tipton Fall weanling, Out Keeneland November weanling, $70,000 RNA Fasig-Tipton Summer yearling, $135,000 Fasig-Tipton Select October yearling) is by a Grade 1 route winner (5-11, 1.7M, 3-4 at two, 1-2 sprinting) that is 12-73 (16%) with juvenile debut runners (3-35, 9%, $2.36 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, all juvenile debut winners). The dam, a $380,000 yearling, was placed routing (0-2, 4K, 0-1 sprinting) and has foaled one winner from one runner (1-1 with juveniles). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winning sprinter Quick Draw (6-2-2-0, 57K, 2-6 sprinting). The July 12 workout matches trainer Todd Pletcher's juvenile Doctor Chit (entered in today's fifth race on turf). Pletcher is 58-266 (22%, $1.57 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight sprints (17-84, 20%, $1.72 ROI at Saratoga).

HARD NOSED (Hard Spun - Katy Kat, by Forest Wildcat, April 15, 2009 in Kentucky, $100,000 yearling Keeneland September yearling, $70,000 RNA Fasig-Tipton February juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.4 prior to the February auction. He is by a Grade 1 sprint winner (7-13, 2.6M, 3-3 at two, 4-4 sprinting) that is 1-12 (8%, $0.67 ROI) with juvenile debut runners from his first crop of 2011. The dam, a $92,000 yearling and $240,000 juvenile, was a stakes-winner (4-15, 210K, 1-1 at two, 1-2 sprinting) and has foaled 4 winners from 4 runners (2-3 with juveniles). The dam is a half-sister to multiple Grade 3-placed router Kombat Kat (4-24, 234K, 2-5 at two, 2-5 sprinting). The dam is a full sister to multiple juvenile stakes-winning sprinter Yaddo Cat (3-8, 112K, 3-6 at two, won debut, 3-6 sprinting). The June 27 workout matches trainer Nick Zito's 3-year-old Birdway (finished third in maiden special weight at Saratoga on July 23 with 68 Beyer). The June 27 workout also matches Zito's 4-year-old The Director (78 Beyer). Over the past four years, trainer Nick Zito is 0-24 when teamed up with jockey Javier Castellano.

DELTA RANGER (Mr. Greeley - Ever Hopeful, by With Approval, May 4, 2009 in Kentucky, $1,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Grade 3 sprint winner (5-16, 474K, 2-6 at two, 4-11 sprinting) that is 35-325 (11%) with juvenile debut runners (1-33, 3%, $0.13 ROI with all debut runners in 2011 (juvenile debut winner). The dam was unplaced (0-1, $930, 0-1 at two, 0-1 sprinting) and has foaled 4 winners from 5 runners (1-5 with juveniles). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed Monkey Seventeen (6-30, 135K, 0-1 at two, 4-19 sprinting), stakes-placed Golightly (4-10, 148K, 4-9 sprinting) and stakes-winner Private Dreams (4-8, 91K, 3-4 sprinting, won debut). The July 8 workout matches trainer Michelle Nihei's 3-year-old David the Great (finished seventh in a $50,000 starter allowance at Saratoga on July 22 with a 63 Beyer). Nihei won two races at Saratoga last year, including juvenile debut winner Silent Joy.

VENTURA BAR (Officer - Ventura Hotel, by Grand Slam, January 24, 2009 in Kentucky, $8,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a juvenile Grade 1 route winner (6-9, 804K, 5-8 at two, 5-5 sprinting) that is 97-539 (18%) with juvenile runners. The dam was a sprint winner (1-6, 4K, 1-6 sprinting) and has foaled 2 winners from 3 runners (1-2 with juveniles). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winner Playinaround (13-33, 241K, 2-3 sprinting) and multiple stakes-winning juvenile Playing 'n Gold (3-9, 150K, 3-9 at two, 2-7 sprinting). The July 16 workout matches trainer Ken McPeek's juvenile filly Volcat (finished third in maiden special weight at Saratoga on July 25 with 52 Beyer)

Selections:
1. J C's Pride
2. Chalybeate Springs
3. Mr. Style

The Play:
J C's Pride - Chalybeate Springs Exacta
J C's Pride - Mr. Style Exacta