07/21/2011 5:43PM

Saratoga: Spa Babies for July 22, Race 5

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Welcome to Spa Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile contest at the meet and hope for a tidy profit.

In past years, I would list the stats for each horse before writing up my analysis, selections and wagering strategy.

In order to streamline the content, this year's Spa Babies will showcase written analyses of each juvenile race.

Each analysis will include relevant statistical information. Following the analysis, top three selections and wagering strategy will be provided.

Race 5
5 1/2 Furlongs
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-old fillies
Purse $50,000

Analysis: 

REFINING (Malibu Moon - Good Cause, by Giant's Causeway, foaled February 8, 2009 in Florida, $37,000 RNA Keeneland September yearling) is by a juvenile sprint winner that is 45-271 (17%) with juvenile debut runners (6-40, 15%, $1.53 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 3 juvenile debut winners). Refining is the first foal from the unraced dam.  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winner Tee Cat (8-37, 198K, 0-1 at two, 3-15 sprinting), multiple stakes-placed Chula (3-20, 69K), stakes-placed Anon (9-44, 167K, 0-2 at two, 0-3 sprinting) and stakes-winner Snug Harbour (6-16, 164K, 1-5 at two, 3-7 sprinting). Trainer Bill Mott has struggled over the past three years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints at Saratoga (0-32), but he has sent out a pair of first-time winners in 2011, including Anna Sophia (also ridden by Jose Lezcano) during the Belmont sprint meet.

BARGAIN BLITZ (Rahy - Freedom of Speech, by Danzig, March 30, 2009 in Kentucky, Withdrawn Keeneland September yearling) is by a Grade 2 route winner that is 104-802 (13%) with juvenile runners.  The Rahy - Danzig breeding "nick" has produced multiple Grade 1 turf winner Tranquility Lake and stakes-winning router Right Revved (22-102, 477K, 1-5 at two, 5-20 sprinting).  Bargain Blitz is a full sister to Grade 2 turf winner T. D. Vance (9-25, 576K, 1-2 at two, 1-3 in main track sprints) and a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed sprinter Philippe (2-9, 75K, 1-4 at two). The unraced dam is a full sister to stakes-placed sprinter New Way (5-14, 120K) and multiple Grade 2-placed router Treasure Island (2-6, 96K, 1-1 at two, 1-2 sprinting).  The dam is also a half-sister to multiple Grade 1 winner Finder's Fee (7-27, 708K, 3-8 at two, won debut, 5-17 sprinting).  Trainer Neil Howard went 1-25 (4%) last year at Saratoga.

STOPSHOPPINGMARIA (More Than Ready - Skybox, by Spend a Buck, February 21, 2009 in Kentucky, $50,000 Keeneland September yearling, $100,000 OBS Select juvenile) worked a quarter-mile in 21.1 prior to the March 2-year-old auction.  Her sire, a Grade 1 sprint winner at Saratoga (5-7 at two, won debut), is 34-298 (11%) with juvenile debut runners (1-27, 4%, $0.44 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, juvenile debut winner for this trainer).  Stopshoppingmaria is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Sand Ridge (17-59, 708K in earnings, 2-3 at two, 16-49 sprinting), stakes-winner Dootsie (4-18, 117K, 0-1 at two, 3-12 sprinting) and stakes-placed turf sprinter Peter Paul Rubens (4-13, 148K).  The dam, a $35,000 yearling purchase, was stakes-placed sprinting at two (1-6, 23K, all races at two), and is a half-sister to Grade 2-placed juvenile Royal Weekend (2-11, 71K, 0-4 sprinting). Trainer Todd Pletcher is 15-58 (26%, $1.91 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011. The May 14 workout went .02 slower than Pletcher's 3-year-old filly Ready and Good (48 Beyer).  The May 22 workout matches Pletcher's juvenile Overdriven (won debut at Belmont on July 1 with 100 Beyer).  The June 10 workout matches Pletchers' 3-year-old filly Dixie Shoes (62 Beyer when seventh in career debut on grass for $65,000 tag at Belmont on June 16).  The June 19 workout went .05 faster than Pletcher's 3-year-old Manresa Road (finished third in career debut on grass for $50,000 tag at Belmont on July 7 with 68 Beyer).  The July 4 workout went .01 faster than Pletcher's 3-year-old filly Shared Heart (79 Beyer top).

DELIGHTFUL MAGIC (Mineshaft - Magic Kitty, by Storm Cat, March 21, 2009 in Kentucky, $16,000 Keeneland September yearling, $210,000 OBS Spring juvenile) worked a furlong in 10.1 prior to the April 2-year-old auction.  Her sire, a multiple Grade 1 route winner, is 6-115 (5%) with juvenile debut runners (1-31, 3%, $3.06 ROI with all debut runners in 2011). The Mineshaft - Storm Cat breeding "nick" has produced Florida Derby winner Dialed In.   Delightful Magic is a half to juvenile debut winner She's a Lady Cat (3-9, 32K, 1-6 sprinting).  The dam, a $400,000 yearling purchase, went 0-13 in her career and is a half-sister to stakes-placed Sir Hopeful (4-18, 66K, 0-2 at two, 4-15 sprinting) and multiple Grade 3 winner Shawnee Country (5-11, 430K, 3-7 at two, won debut, 2-6 sprinting).  Trainer Mark Casse is 7-31 (23%, $1.82 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011. The June 16 workout matches up with Casse's juvenile Lockout (finished second in career debut at Churchill Downs on July 3 with 69 Beyer). 
BOURBONESQUE (Dynaformer - Rhineland, by Mr. Prospector, May 19, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a multiple Grade 2 winner that is 138-1165 (12%) with juvenile runners.  The Dynaformer - Mr. Prospector breeding "nick" has produced Grade 1 turf winner Film Maker.  Bourbonesque is a half-sister to stakes-placed turf runners Cologne (2-21, 121K, 0-1 sprinting) and St. Hildegard (2-15, 103K, 0-1 at two). The dam is an unraced half-sister to Grade 2 Remsen winner Saarland (5-21, 595K, 2-5 at two, 0-1 sprinting). Trainer Wayne Lukas is 4-98 (4%, $0.80 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles adding Lasix.  Bourbonesque finished behind Bargain Blitz on June 19 at Churchill Downs.


MY MISS AURELIA (Smart Strike - My Miss Storm Cat, by Sea of Secrets, March 16, 2009 in Kentucky, $550,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a Grade 1 route winner that is 47-322 (15%) with juvenile debut runners (5-30, 17%, $1.34 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 juvenile debut winner).  My Miss Aurelia is a half-sister to stakes-placed miler Albergatti (1-4, 63K, 1-2 sprinting).  The dam, a $70,000 yearling, was a stakes-winning sprinter (5-7, 190K, 1-2 at two, won debut) and is a half-sister to West Virginia Derby (Grade 2) winner Soul Warrior (3-10, 642K, 1-2 at two, 0-1 sprinting). Trainer Steve Asmussen is 8-86 (9%, $1.09 ROI) with all debut runners this year. The May 18 workout matches up with Asmussen's 3-year-old filly Malibu Cougar (34 Beyer top).  The July 6 workout went .01 faster than Malibu Cougar.

I KNOW YOU KNOW (Officer - Fickle Factor, by Touch Gold, March 30, 2009 in Kentucky, Out Keeneland September yearling) is by a Grade 1 winning router at two (5-8 at two, won debut) that is 26-182 (14%) with juvenile debut runners (4-26, 15%, $1.23 ROI with all debut runners in 2011). The winning dam (4-14, 83K, 3-7 sprinting) has foaled two winners from as many runners (1 juvenile winner).  The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed sprinter Allude (2-8, 88K, 1-3 at two).  Trainer Richard Dutrow Jr. is 2-11 (18%, $1.65 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

PARTY OF INTEREST (Bernardini - Search Party, by Seeking the Gold, May 9, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner that is 7-36 (19%) with juvenile debut runners (6-30, 20%, $2.12 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 3 juvenile debut winners).  The Bernardini - Giant's Causeway breeding "nick" has produced Grade 1-placed router R Gypsy Gold. Party of Interest is a half-sister to multiple Grade 3 winner Criminologist (9-22, 554K, 0-1 at two, 0-2 sprinting) and Grade 2-placed Rescue Squad (2-14, 162K, 1-1 at two). The dam was Grade 3-placed (6-25, 258K, 0-2 at two, 0-4 sprinting) and is a full sister to multiple Grade 3-placed Manoa (4-25, 262K, 0-5 sprinting).  The dam is also a half-sister to Grade 2-placed juvenile Proxy Statement (3-8, 105K, won debut, 0-1 sprinting). Trainer Shug McGaughey is 1-9 (11%, $4.64 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.
 
Selections:

1. Refining
2. Bargain Blitz
3. Stopshopping Maria

The Play:
Refining to Win and Place at 4-1 odds or greater.

The Play:
Gypsy Robin to Win at 2-1 odds or greater

More Spa Babies for July 22:
Race 7
Race 9