08/07/2011 8:31PM

Saratoga Spa Babies for August 8, Race 4

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Welcome to Spa Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile contest at the meet and hope for a tidy profit.

In past years, I would list the stats for each horse before writing up my analysis, selections and wagering strategy.  In order to streamline the content, this year's Spa Babies will showcase written analyses of each juvenile race.  Each analysis will include relevant statistical information.  Following the analysis, top three selections and wagering strategy will be provided.

 

Race 4
5 1/2 Furlongs (Turf)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-olds
Purse $50,000

 

Analysis:

6. ANONYMOUS DONOR (Scat Daddy - Thai Lilac, by Tale of the Cat, April 15, 2009 in Kentucky, $50,000 Keeneland November weanling) is by a multiple Grade 1 winner (5-9, 1.3M, 3-5 at two, won debut) that is 4-24 (17%, $1.27 ROI) and 1-5 (20%) with first-turf runners from his first crop of 2011. The dam, a $145,000 weanling and $300,000 yearling, was unraced and has foaled 1 winner from 2 runners (1-1 with juveniles, 0-1 with turfers). The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed Nicki (4-42, 81K, 1-3 at two, won 0-1 on turf), stakes-placed Short Man (11-69, 131K, 1-2 at two, 0-1 on turf) and stakes-winner Nice of You (6-13, 145K). The July 3 workout matches trainer Todd Pletcher's juvenile filly Sweet Cat (finished second in career debut on dirt on July 25 with 58 Beyer). The August 1 workout matches Pletcher's juvenile Finale (79 Beyer on turf). Pletcher is 4-39 (10%, $0.57 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf sprints (1-13, 8%, $0.81 ROI at Saratoga). Pletcher is 22-81 (27%, $1.91 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

2. BELVOIR (Jump Start - Mountain Bonfire, by Mt. Livermore, May 3, 2009 in Kentucky, $55,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a Grade 2 sprint winner at two (2-5, 221K, 2-5 at two, won debut) that is 17-183 (9%) with juvenile debut runners (1-19, 5%, $0.24 ROI with all debut runners in 2011) and 5-124 (4%) with first-turf runners. The dam was unraced and has foaled 2 winners from 2 runners (1-2 with 2yos, 1 debut winner, 1-2 with turfers, 1 first-turf winner). Belvoir is a half-brother to juvenile stakes-placed turfer Smart Shot (1-3, 25K, 1-2 at two, won debut, 1-3 on turf, first-turf winner). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed turfer Follow the Piper (2-11, 121K, 2-11 on turf), stakes-placed sprinter Smart Roar (4-6, 87K, 1-2 on turf) and Grade 3-placed Burst of Fire (4-15, 299K, 2-10 on turf). The dam is a full sister to stakes-placed Mountain Beacon (2-19, 153K, 0-6 on turf). The June 23 workout matches trainer Graham Motion's uncoupled stable mate Turkish. The July 22 workout matches Motion's juvenile State of Play (finished first in career debut on turf on July 27 with 68 Beyer). The August 1 workout matches Motion's 3-year-old filly Humadea (finished first in career debut on turf on August 4 with 83 Beyer). Motion is 5-25 (20%, $1.96 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf sprints (3-5, 60%, $8.00 ROI at Saratoga). Motion is 3-23 (13%, $1.97 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

4. SCANDALICIOUS (Giant's Causeway - Salty You, by Salt Lake, April 27, 2009 in Kentucky, $150,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Group 1 turf winner (9-13, 3.0M, 3-3 at two, 9-12 on turf, first-turf winner) that is 18-191 (9%) with juvenile debut runners (8-38, 21%, $3.37 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 3 juvenile debut winners, 1 at this meet, 1 older debut winner on turf) and 37-354 (10%) with first-turf runners. The dam, a $55,000 yearling, was a Grade 1 winner at two (5-18, 332K, 2-4 at two, 3-12 on turf) and has foaled 1 winner from 3 runners (0-1 with 2yos, 1-3 with turfers). The dam is a half-sister to Grade 3-placed turfer Silent Crystal (2-12, 58K, 2-12 on turf) and stakes-winner Lone Star Deputy (4-19, 95K, 0-2 at two, 2-12 on turf, first-turf winner). Trainer Carlos Martin is 2-17 (12%, $2.18 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf sprints (1-8, 13%, $1.80 ROI at Saratoga). Martin is 2-14 (14%, $2.09 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

5. BENOFEAR (Malibu Moon - Queen Amira, by Forestry, April 14, 2009 in Kentucky, Withdrawn Keeneland November weanling, Withdrawn Keeneland September yearling) is by a juvenile sprint winner (1-2, 33K, 1-2 at two) that is 46-281 (16%) with juvenile debut runners (8-53, 15%, $1.34 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 4 juvenile debut winners, 1 on turf) and 27-285 (9%) with first-turf runners. The dam, a $50,000 yearling and $75,000 juvenile, was a stakes-winner on turf (2-16, 88K, 2-13 on turf, first-turf winner) and this is her first starter. The second dam is multiple stakes-winner Lady Gin (6-20, 227K, 3-5 at two, 3-8 on turf). The August 3 workout matches trainer Dale Romans' 3-year-old filly Party Vow (71 turf Beyer). Trainer Dale Romans is 0-5 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf sprints. Romans is 2-25 (8%, $1.35 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

1. JAGATI (Yes It's True - Look for Good, by Unbridled's Song, January 29, 2009 in Kentucky, $25,000 Keeneland September yearling, $55,000 RNA OBS Select March auction) worked 1 furlong in 10.1 prior to the March sale. He is by a Grade 1 sprint winner (11-22, 1.0M, 5-9 at two) that is 161-1127 (14%) with juveniles and 56-775 (7%) with turfers. The dam, a $100,000 yearling, was a sprint winner (1-11, 32K) and has foaled 3 winners from 5 runners (2-4 with 2yos, 1 debut winner, 0-3 with turfers). Jagati is a half-sister to multiple juvenile stakes-placed sprinter Miz Vizcaya (2-11, 75K, 2-7 at two). The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Nonproductiveasset (6-38, 491K, 4-17 on turf, first-turf winner). Trainer Eddie Kenneally is 1-2 (50%, $3.60 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles in maiden special weight turf sprints (0-1 at Saratoga). The third-place finisher from the Churchill debut returned to graduate on grass at Arlington with a 62 Beyer.

7. POLITICALLYCORRECT (Kitten's Joy - Exceedexpectations, by Tale of the Cat, May 14, 2009 in Kentucky, Withdrawn Fasig-Tipton Spring May juvenile) is by a multiple Grade 1 turf winner (9-14, 2.0M, 2-4 at two, 9-12 on turf, first-turf winner) that is 19-104 (18%) with juvenile debut runners (5-43, 12%, $2.13 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 juvenile debut winner, 1 older winner on turf) and 19-124 (15%) with first-turf runners. The dam was a sprint winner (2-13, 68K) and this is her first starter. This is the female family of Grade 2 juvenile winner Big Sur (4-25, 323K, 2-8 at two). The July 7 and July 13 workouts match trainer Wesley Ward's juvenile My Man Dan (54 Beyer on dirt). The July 13 workout matches Ward's 5-year-old Saar (finished first in a $7,500 'n2L' claimer over the Arlington polytrack on July 30 with 65 Beyer). The July 26 workout matches Ward's juvenile Raging Daoust (60 Beyer on Tapeta, 59 on dirt). Ward is 1-7 (14%, $1.57 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf sprints (1-1, 100%, $11.00 ROI at Saratoga). Ward is 14-44 (31%, $1.78 ROI) with all debut runners this year (0-3 with turf firsters).

9. DULLAHAN (Even the Score - Mining My Own, by Smart Strike, February 8, 2009 in Kentucky, $250,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Grade 2 route winner (9-29, 751K, 3-16 on turf, first-turf winner) that is 29-238 (12%) with juvenile runners and 11-85 (13%) with first-turf runners. The dam was unraced and has foaled 2 winners from 3 runners (1-3 with juveniles, 0-1 with turfers). Dullahan is a half-brother to Grade 1 route winner Mine That Bird (5-18, 2.2M, 4-6 at two, 0-1 on turf). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winning sprinter Golden Sunray (2-3, 87K). The July 22 workout matches trainer Dale Romans' juvenile Seve (finished sixth in maiden special weight on turf on August 6 with 64 Beyer). Romans is 1-4 (25%, $2.50 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles going dirt to turf following 31-60 day layoff in maiden special weight sprint (1-1, 100%, $10.00 ROI at Saratoga). Finished ahead of Daddy Nose Best in most recent start at Churchill. That one returned to finish second here on turf with a 66 Beyer. Mine That Bird's brother may want more distance.

10. MONEY'S WORTH (Johannesburg - Saratoga Honey, by Boundary, April 30, 2009 in Kentucky, Withdrawn Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Grade/Group 1 winner at two (7-10, 1.0M, 7-7 at two, 6-8 on turf, first-turf winner) that is 17-207 (8%) with juvenile debut runners (3-37, 8%, $0.93 ROI with all debut runners in 2011) and 27-246 (11%) with first-turf runners. The dam, a $102,000 yearling, was a sprint winner (1-3, 32K) and has foaled 2 winners from 3 runners (1-2 with 2yos, debut winner, 2-3 with turfers, 2 first-turf winners). Money's Worth is a full brother to juvenile Group 3 turf winner Jupiter Pluvius (2-4,105K, 2-2 at two, 2-4 on turf, first-turf winner). The dam is a half-sister to multiple Grade 2-placed juvenile Solly's Honor (3-30, 117K, 1-9 at two, 0-2 on turf), multiple stakes-winner Koennecker (22-107, 213K, 2-4 at two, won debut), multiple juvenile stakes-winning sprinter High Heeled Hope (4-11, 235K, 4-8 at two) and stakes-placed sprinter My Man Marty (2-11, 64K, 0-1 on turf). The June 7 workout matches trainer Bill Mott's juvenile Coach Royal (finished second in career debut on dirt at Belmont on July 8 with 37 Beyer, has 67 Beyer on turf). The June 15 workout went .05 slower than Mott's juvenile Winston C (finished ninth in career debut on turf on August 6 with 52 Beyer). The June 20 workout matches Winston C. The July 23 workout matches Mott's juvenile filly Read the Research (finished sixth in career debut on turf on August 4 with 48 Beyer). Mott is 0-28 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf sprints (0-13 at Saratoga). Mott is 3-35 (8%, $1.46 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

11. GOLDEN NOBLE (Noble Causeway - Goldendale, by Saint Ballado, April 30, 2009 in Kentucky, Withdrawn Keeneland September yearling) is by a Grade 1-placed router (0-2 at two, 0-2 sprinting) that is 0-8 with juvenile debut runners from his first crop of 2011 (this is his first turf starter). The dam was unraced and has foaled 2 winners from 5 runners (2-4 with juveniles, 1-2 with turfers). The dam is a half-sister to Grade 3-placed juvenile Sisti's Pride (1-10, 70K, 1-6 at two). The July 8 workout matches trainer Nick Zito's juvenile Texas Josh (finished seventh in career debut on turf on July 27 with 28 Beyer). Zito is 0-2 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf sprints (0-1 at Saratoga). Zito is 1-30 (3%, $0.51 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

3. POLITICAL COURAGE (Elusive Quality - Ladina, by Wild Again, March 19, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a multiple Grade 3 turf winner (9-20, 413K, 2-4 on turf, first-turf winner) that is 33-213 (15%) with juvenile debut runners (3-29, 10%, $0.90 ROI with all debut runners in 2011) and 27-315 (9%) with first-turf runners. The dam was a route winner (2-16, 109K, 1-2 at two) and this is her first starter. The dam is a half-sister to juvenile Group 2-placed turfer Alexander Castle (1-7, 56K, 1-2 at two, won debut, 1-6 on turf). Trainer Michael Matz is 1-6 (17%, $4.23 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf sprints (1-4, 25%, $6.35 ROI at Saratoga). Matz is 2-16 (13%, $2.15 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

8. TURKISH (Istan - Tresor, by Pleasant Tap, April 1, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a multiple Grade 3 winner (9-21, 461K, 1-2 at two, won debut, 3-8 on turf, first-turf winner) that is 0-6 with juvenile debut runners and 0-2 with first-turf runners from his first crop of 2011. The dam was placed on turf (0-3, 0-3 on turf) and has foaled 3 winners from 4 runners (1-4 with juveniles, debut winner, 1-4 with turfers). The dam is a half-sister to French Group 1 turf winner Treble (2-7, 127K, 1-2 at two, 2-7 on turf) and French stakes-placed turfer Trezene (7-21, 123K, 6-20 on turf). The June 23 workout matches trainer Graham Motion's uncoupled stable mate Belvoir. Motion is 5-25 (20%, $1.96 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf sprints (3-5, 60%, $8.00 ROI at Saratoga). Motion is 3-23 (13%, $1.97 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

 

Selections:
1. Anonymous Donor
2. Belvoir
3. Scandalicious


The Play:
Anonymous Donor to Win at 5-2 odds or greater.

 

***
*Meet record based on starts, wins, top pick (after scratches) in the money, and profit/loss of that day's play ($2 wager, scheduled surface only): 28-7-12 (-$20.60)