08/07/2011 7:25PM

Saratoga Spa Babies for August 8, Race 2

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Welcome to Spa Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile contest at the meet and hope for a tidy profit.

In past years, I would list the stats for each horse before writing up my analysis, selections and wagering strategy.  In order to streamline the content, this year's Spa Babies will showcase written analyses of each juvenile race.  Each analysis will include relevant statistical information.  Following the analysis, top three selections and wagering strategy will be provided.

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Sunday's results:
Race 2: Shot Gun Pennie finished fifth
Race 8: Wicked Mizz finished third

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Monday, August 8, 2011

Race 2
5 Furlongs
Maiden Special Weight (New York Breds)
2-year-olds
Purse $40,000

 

Analysis:

1x. GOODTIME BOY (Stonesider - Babyifurgoodtogo, by Elusive Quality, February 6, 2009) is by a juvenile debut sprint winner (1-1, 25K, 1-1 at two, 1-1 sprinting) that is 0-6 with juvenile debut runners from his first crop of 2011. The dam, a $100,000 yearling, was a winner (4-22, 75K, 2-15 sprinting) and this is her first starter. The third dam is stakes-winner Dynanite (6-13, 103K). The July 2 workout went .01 faster than trainer Carlos Martin's juvenile Goose No Fruit (finished second in career debut in a $50,000 maiden claimer on August 6 with 56 Beyer). The July 2 workout went .01 slower than Martin's juvenile Scandalicious (entered in today's fourth race). Martin is 1-16 (6%) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in state bred maiden special weight dirt sprints (0-4 at Saratoga). Martin is 2-14 (14%, $2.09 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

1a. THE PRIZE FIGHTER (Pure Prize - Miss Winning Sweep, by End Sweep, April 10, 2009) is by a Grade 2 route winner (5-17, 475K, 1-3 at two, 0-4 sprinting) that is 76-442 (17%) with juveniles. The dam, a $75,000 yearling, was a sprint winner (2-5, 54K, 1-3 at two, 2-5 sprinting) and has foaled 4 winners from 5 runners (2-4 with 2yos, 4-5 with sprinters). The Prize Fighter is a half-brother to Grade 3-placed juvenile sprinter Winning Expression (1-5, 78K, 1-5 at two, 1-5 sprinting) and stakes-placed router Shrewd Ice (2-8, 134K, 1-1 at two, 1-4 sprinting). This is the female family of Precisionist (20-46, 3.4M, 3-5 at two, 3-9 sprinting). Trainer Phil Serpe is 0-2 over the past five years with second-time juveniles in state bred maiden special weight dirt sprints (0-1 at Saratoga).

3. SARATOGA SNACKS (Tale of the Cat - Near and Dear, by Red Ransom, March 6, 2009, $60,000 Fasig-Tipton Preferred August yearling) is by a Grade 2 sprint winner (5-9, 360K, 1-3 sprinting) that is 72-388 (19%) with juvenile debut runners (11-48, 23%, $2.51 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 6 juvenile debut winners, 1 at this meet). The dam was a turf winner (3-9, 80K) and has foaled 2 winners from 2 runners (2-2 with 2yos, 1-1 with sprinters in North America. Saratoga Snacks is a half-brother to multiple Group 3-placed Rajman (4-15, 13K, 1-7 at two in Peru). The dam is a half-sister to juvenile stakes-placed sprinter Bond Arbitrage (5-23, 77K, 1-4 at two, won debut, 5-20 sprinting). Trainer Gary Sciacca is 1-9 (11%, $5.17 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in state bred maiden special weight dirt sprints (0-5 at Saratoga). Sciacca is 0-23 since January 1, 2009 with debut runners.

1. CYBERTRON (Whywhywhy - Victory's Sister, by Cryptoclearance, April 15, 2009) is by a Grade 1-winning juvenile sprinter (3-9, 315K, 3-5 at two, 2-6 sprinting) that is 43-397 (11%) with juveniles. The dam, a $20,000 yearling, was placed routing (0-10, 23K, 0-2 sprinting) and has foaled 1 winner from 3 runners, 0-3 with 2yos, 0-3 with sprinters). This is the female family of Grade 2 winner Miss Indy Anna (7-10, 349K, 5-8 sprinting) and Grade 2 sprint winner Time Limit (5-13, 379K, 3-8 at two, 5-6 sprinting). Trainer Phil Serpe is 0-2 over the past five years with second-time juveniles in state bred maiden special weight dirt sprints (0-1 at Saratoga).

6. RAFFIE'S BANDIT (Raffie's Majesty - Moody Woman, by Charismatic, May 18, 2009, Out Keeneland September yearling, $1,000 RNA Fasig-Tipton Select October yearling, $2,500 OBS Spring April juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 11.0 prior to the April auction. He is by a Grade 1-placed router (2-8, 249K) that is 0-42 with juvenile debut runners (1-5, 20%, $2.84 ROI with all debut runners in 2011). The dam was unplaced (0-6, 1K, 0-5 at two) and has foaled 1 winner from 1 runner (0-1 with 2yos, 0-1 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winning sprinter Wilzada (9-15, 294K, 9-15 sprinting). The June 14 workout went .04 slower than trainer Jim Ryerson's juvenile Image of Disco (finished thirteenth in career debut in $50,000 maiden claimer on August 6 with 0 Beyer). The July 3 workout went .01 slower than Ryerson's juvenile filly Darn That Trip (finished eighth in career debut on August 7 with 0 Beyer). Ryerson is 1-16 (6%) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in state bred maiden special weight dirt sprints (0-3 at Saratoga). Ryerson is 1-12 (8%, $0.48 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

5. BAY PARK BOY (Johannesburg - Combanchera, by Seattle Slew, March 15, 2009) is by a multiple Grade/Group 1 winner at two (7-10, 1.0M, 7-7 at two) that is 17-207 (8%) with juvenile debut runners (3-37, 8%, $0.93 ROI with all debut runners in 2011). The dam was multiple stakes-placed at two (2-5, 87K, 2-4 at two, won debut, 1-2 sprinting) and has foaled 2 winners from 2 runners (2-2 with 2yos, 1 debut winner, 2-2 with sprinters). The dam is a full sister to stakes-placed router Seattle Glory (4-12, 109K, 2-3 sprinting). The July 25 workout matches trainer Todd Pletcher's juvenile filly Coral Glade (finished tenth in career debut on turf on August 5 with 27 Beyer). Pletcher is 14-23 (61%, positive ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in state bred maiden special weight dirt sprints (5-10, 50%, positive ROI at Saratoga). Pletcher is 22-81 (27%, $1.91 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

4. WILL GEER ROAD (Cherokee Run - Sweet Sweet, by Honour and Glory, March 4, 2009) is by a Grade 1 sprint winner (13-28, 1.5M, 5-7 at two, won debut, 10-17 sprinting) that is 33-369 (9%) with juvenile debut runners (3-15, 20%, $2.08 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 juvenile debut winner). The dam was a multiple stakes-winning sprinter (4-10, 191K, 1-1 at two, 4-10 sprinting) and this is her first starter. The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed War Paint (12-52, 265K, 1-4 at two, 3-15 sprinting). Trainer Mike Hushion is 3-20 (15%, $1.87 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in state bred maiden special weight dirt sprints (1-3, 33%, $4.06 ROI at Saratoga). Hushion is 1-11 (9%, $0.33 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

2. PANTHRO (Discreet Cat - All At Once, by Touch Gold, March 2, 2009, Withdrawn Keeneland September yearling, $50,000 Fasig-Tipton October yearling, Withdrawn Fasig-Tipton Spring May juvenile) is by a Grade 1 route winner (6-9, 1.6M, 1-1 at two, 2-3 sprinting) that is 3-17 (18%, $1.35 ROI) with juvenile debut runners from his first crop of 2011 (1 winner at this meet). The dam, a $210,000 yearling, was a route winner (2-11, 67K, 0-1 at two, 0-2 sprinting) and has foaled 1 winner from 2 runners (0-0 with 2yos, 1-1 with sprinters). The second dam is stakes-winner Star of Apalachee (4-38, 112K, 0-6 at two, 1-21 sprinting). Trainer Stanley Hough is 0-2 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in state bred maiden special weight dirt sprints (0-2 at Saratoga). Hough is 1-11 (9%, $1.96 ROI) since January 1, 2009 with all debut runners.

Selections:
1. Goodtime Boy
2. The Prize Fighter
3. Saratoga Snacks

The Play:
Goodtime Boy (POE) - Saratoga Snacks Exacta