08/06/2011 9:34PM

Saratoga Spa Babies for August 7, Race 8

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Welcome to Spa Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile contest at the meet and hope for a tidy profit.

In past years, I would list the stats for each horse before writing up my analysis, selections and wagering strategy.  In order to streamline the content, this year's Spa Babies will showcase written analyses of each juvenile race.  Each analysis will include relevant statistical information.  Following the analysis, top three selections and wagering strategy will be provided.

 

Race 8
6 1/2 Furlongs
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-old fillies
Purse $50,000

 

Analysis:

#1a WICKED MIZZ (Mizzen Mast - Wickedly Wise, by Tactical Cat, February 27, 2009 in Florida, $170,000 RNA Keeneland September yearling) is by a Grade 1 sprint winner (5-11, 554K, 1-3 at two, won debut, 1-1 sprinting) that is 10-132 (8%) with juvenile debut runners (1-21, 5%, $0.45 ROI with all debut runners in 2011). The dam, a $90,000 weanling and $105,000 yearling, was placed sprinting (0-3, 16K, 0-3 sprinting) and has foaled 2 winners from 2 runners (1-1 with 2yos, debut winner, 2-2 with sprinters). Wicked Mizz is a half-sister to Grade 2-placed router Ash Zee (3-8, 142K, 3-5 sprinting) and juvenile Grade 1 router Wickedly Perfect (3-4, 404K, 3-4 at two, won debut, 2-3 sprinting). The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed sprinter Oh Summer (8-23, 184K, 0-2 at two, 7-20 sprinting) and stakes-winner Cayman Sunset (4-13, 106K, 2-4 at two, 3-7 sprinting). The June 29 workout matches trainer Tony Dutrow's 3-year-old filly Solar Storm (finished first in career debut in maiden special weight at Delaware on July 6 with 64 Beyer. The July 8, July 17 workouts match Dutrow's juvenile filly True Feelings (finished second in the Grade 3 Schuylerville Stakes on July 22 with 72 Beyer). The July 25 workout went .04 slower than Dutrow's 3-year-old filly Ohbabyobeyme (finished first in $20,000 maiden claimer at Saratoga on August 1 with 65 Beyer). Dutrow is 17-105 (16%, $1.32 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (0-5 at Saratoga). Dutrow is 7-18 (38%, $3.69 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

3. SEA ISLAND (Pulpit - Resort, by Pleasant Colony, February 9, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a multiple Grade 2 route winner (4-6, 728K, 1-1 sprinting) that is 38-294 (13%) with juvenile debut runners (1 older winner at this meet). The dam was multiple Grade 1-placed (4-19, 247K, 1-2 at two, 1-3 sprinting) and has foaled 2 winners from 3 runners (1-1 with 2yos, 0-2 with sprinters). Sea Island is a full sister to Grade 2 route winner Sightseeing (2-18, 508K, 1-5 at two, 0-2 sprinting). The dam is a half-sister to Grade 2 route winner Living Vicariously (5-15, 356K, 1-5 at two, 2-5 sprinting) and Grade 3 winner With Distinction (6-29, 447K, 5-18 sprinting). Trainer Shug McGaughey is 0-47 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (0-18 at Saratoga). McGaughey is 1-12 (8%, $3.48 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

7. ZULTANITE (El Corredor - Roaming Wild, by Wild Again, January 31, 2009 in Kentucky, $23,000 RNA Keeneland November 2009, $57,000 Fasig-Tipton Summer July yearling) is by a Grade 1 route winner (7-10, 727K, 1-2 at two, 4-6 sprinting) that is 20-243 (8%) with juvenile debut runners (2-36, 6%, $0.42 ROI with all debut runners in 2011). The dam, a $25,000 yearling, was a turf winner (2-8, 34K, 2-4 at two, won debut, 0-2 sprinting) and has foaled 0 winners from 1 runner (0-1 with 2yos, 0-1 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winning sprinter Cedar Knolls (6-25, 312K, 0-1 at two, 6-24 sprinting). Trainer David Donk is 0-27 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (0-6 at Saratoga). Donk is 1-33 (3%, $0.41 ROI) since January 1, 2009 with debut runners.

9. CRESPANO (Mineshaft - Code of Ethics, by Honour and Glory, March 12, 2009 in Kentucky, $145,000 Fasig-Tipton Summer July yearling, Out Keeneland September yearling, $45,000 OBS Select March juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.2 prior to the March auction. She is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (10-18, 2.2M) that is 48-311 (15%) with juvenile runners. The dam, a $35,000 juvenile, was a stakes-winner (4-20, 116K, 0-1 at two, 0-2 sprinting) and has foaled 0 winners from 3 runners (0-3 with 2yos, 0-2 with sprinters). The dam is a full sister to juvenile Grade 3 turf winner One and Twenty (2-12, 176K, 2-6 at two, 0-2 sprinting). Trainer Todd Pletcher is 21-96 (22%, $1.07 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles in maiden special weight dirt sprints (6-41, 15%, $0.61 ROI at Saratoga).

10. CALLMENANCY (Political Force - Mayan Milagra, by Menifee, March 22, 2009 in Kentucky, $12,000 Keeneland September yearling, $100,000 RNA Keeneland April juvenile) worked 2 furlongs in 21.3 prior to the April auction. She is by a Grade 1 route winner (4-17, 607K, 1-5 at two, 1-7 sprinting) that is 1-5 (20%, $2.76 ROI) with juvenile debut runners from his first crop of 2011. The dam is unplaced (0-3, $161, 0-1 at two, 0-3 sprinting) and has foaled 1 winner from 1 runner (1-1 with 2yos, debut winner, 1-1 with sprinters). Callmenancy is a half-sister to juvenile Grade 2 winner Dancinginherdreams (2-5, 216K, 2-2 at two, 1-2 sprinting). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winner Deodar (6-28, 162K, 0-1 at two, 1-3 sprinting), stakes-winner Bema (3-8, 146K, 2-5 at two, 1-3 sprinting) and Grade 3-placed Morada Key (3-25, 180K, 0-7 at two, 1-14 sprinting). The July 9, July 24 workouts match trainer Ken McPeek's juvenile filly Why Take a Chance (finished first in career debut in $50,000 maiden claimer on August 4 with 62 Beyer). The July 16 workout went .03 faster than Why Take a Chance. The July 29 workout went .01 faster than Why Take a Chance. McPeek is 10-68 (15%, $2.33 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (0-13 at Saratoga). McPeek is 4-43 (9%, $1.25 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

6. POR QUE' TE QUIERO (A.P. Indy - Sensation, by Dixie Union, April 27, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (8-11, 2.9M, 3-4 at two, 1-2 sprinting) that is 164-989 (17%) with juveniles. The dam, a $475,000 yearling, was a Grade 3 sprint winner at two (3-7, 181K, 3-5 at two, 3-6 sprinting) and has foaled 0 winners from 2 runners (0-2 with 2yos, 0-2 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to Grade 2-placed I've Decided (15-60, 324K, 1-2 at two, 2-5 sprinting). Trainer Eric Guillot is 0-3 over the past five years with juveniles going synthetic to dirt in sprints.

2. SALSA MAMBO (Include - Miss Special Salsa, by Mr. Greeley, March 25, 2009 in Kentucky, $14,000 RNA Keeneland November weanling, $10,000 OBS Open August yearling, $35,000 OBS Spring April juvenile) worked a furlong in 10.1 prior to the April auction. She is by a Grade 1 route winner (10-20, 1.6M, 0-2 at two, 1-3 sprinting) that is 79-506 (16%) with juveniles. The Include - Mr. Greeley breeding 'nick' has produced Grade 3-placed router Infrattini (1-5, 69K, 0-1 at two, 0-1 sprinting). The dam, a $230,000 weanling and $145,000 juvenile, was unraced and has foaled 1 winner from 2 runners (0-1 with juveniles, 1-2 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed Four Song Limit (2-11, 81K, 0-5 at two, 0-3 sprinting) and stakes-winning router Victoryasecret (7-17, 184K, 0-1 at two, 1-2 sprinting). Trainer Gary Contessa is 9-51 (18%, $1.41 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles in maiden special weight dirt sprints (1-12, 8%, $1.06 ROI at Saratoga).

4. I KNOW YOU KNOW (Officer - Fickle Factor, by Touch Gold, March 30, 2009 in Kentucky, Out Keeneland September yearling) is by a Grade 1 winning router at two (6-9, 804K, 5-8 at two, won debut, 5-5 sprinting) that is 26-183 (14%) with juvenile debut runners (5-30, 17%, $1.30 ROI with all debut runners in 2011). The dam was a winner (4-14, 83K, 3-7 sprinting) has foaled two winners from as many runners (1-2 with 2yos, 1-2 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed sprinter Allude (2-8, 88K, 1-3 at two, 2-7 sprinting). The June 20 workout matches trainer Richard Dutrow Jr.'s juvenile Take the Gold (finished third in career debut on August 6). The June 26, July 2, July 14 workouts match Dutrow's juvenile filly Buccella (finished fourth in career debut on July 29 with 47 Beyer). Dutrow is 14-59 (24%, $2.14 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (3-8, 38%, $3.22 ROI at Saratoga). Dutrow is 2-14 (14%, $1.40 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

1. DARK NEBULA (Exchange Rate - Pure Glitter, by Glitterman, April 19, 2009 in Maryland, $80,000 Keeneland November weanling) is by a Grade 2 sprint winner (6-15, 479K, 1-3 at two, won debut, 3-6 sprinting) that is 28-185 (15%) with juvenile debut runners (5-32, 16%, $1.55 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 3 juvenile debut winners). The dam was stakes-placed (2-10, 69k, 0-2 sprinting) and has foaled 4 winners from 5 runners (2-3 with 2yos, 4-5 with sprinters). Dark Nebula is a half-sister to stakes-winning juvenile Richters Star (6-28, 75K, 2-4 at two, 4-24 sprinting). This is the family of multiple Grade 3 juvenile winner Soviet Sojourn (3-10, 270K, 3-9 at two, 3-6 sprinting). The July 2 workout matches trainer Rusty Arnold's juvenile filly Run a Risk (finished sixth in career debut on July 25 with 0 Beyer). Arnold is 5-39 (13%, $3.89 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (1-14, 7%, $1.67 ROI at Saratoga). Arnold is 4-16 (25%, $8.41 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

5. SHE'SAFLASHYMISS (Flashy Bull - Carol's Amore, by Two Punch, January 29, 2009 in Florida, $40,000 Keeneland November weanling, $87,000 OBS Select August yearling) is by a Grade 1 route winner (5-19, 844K, 1-6 at two, 1-6 sprinting) that is 3-15 (20%, $2.29 ROI) with juvenile debut runners from his first crop of 2011. The dam, a $75,000 yearling, was unplaced (0-1, $410, 0-1 sprinting) and has foaled 2 winners from 2 runners (1-2 with 2yos, debut winner, 2-2 with sprinters). She'saflashymiss is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winning sprinter Ju Jitsu Jax (10-30, 463K, 3-3 at two, 10-26 sprinting). The second dam is multiple stakes-placed Lady Bering (7-26, 151K, 0-1 at two, 0-1 sprinting). The July 31 workout matches trainer Tom Albertrani's 3-year-old filly Style Squad (finished seventh in maiden special weight on turf on August 4 with 53 Beyer, unraced on dirt). Albertrani is 6-67 (9%, $1.27 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (1-23, 4%, $1.92 ROI at Saratoga). Albertani is 2-20 (10%, $1.57 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

8. AND WHY NOT (Street Cry - Alchemist, by A.P. Indy, May 2, 2009 in Kentucky, $775,000 Fasig-Tipton Select August 2010, Out Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (5-12, 5.1M, 1-5 at two, 1-3 sprinting) that is 10-98 (10%) with juvenile debut runners (1-13, $0.26 ROI with all debut runners in 2011). The dam was Grade 3-placed (4-17, 200K, 1-1 sprinting) and has foaled 3 winners from 3 runners (0-2 with 2yos, 2-3 with sprinters). And Why Not is a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed Burj Dubai (3-10, 76K, 3-5 sprinting). The dam is a full sister to Grade 3 route winner Altesse (7-23, 412K, 0-1 sprinting). The June 22, July 1, July 7 workouts match trainer Michael Matz' juvenile filly Assateague (finished seventh in career debut on turf on August 5 with 53 Beyer). Matz is 1-44 (2%, $0.40 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (0-8 at Saratoga). Matz is 1-15 (6%, $1.19 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

 

Selections:
1. Wicked Mizz
2. Sea Island
3. Zultanite

The Play:
Wicked Mizz to Win at 5-2 odds or greater.

***
*Meet record based on starts, wins, top pick (after scratches) in the money, and profit/loss of that day's play ($2 wager, scheduled surface only): 26-7-11 (-$18.60)