08/06/2011 8:26PM

Saratoga Spa Babies for August 7, Race 2

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Welcome to Spa Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile contest at the meet and hope for a tidy profit.

In past years, I would list the stats for each horse before writing up my analysis, selections and wagering strategy.  In order to streamline the content, this year's Spa Babies will showcase written analyses of each juvenile race.  Each analysis will include relevant statistical information.  Following the analysis, top three selections and wagering strategy will be provided.

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Saturday's results:
Race 2: Winston C finished ninth
Race 3: Currency Swap finished first
Race 6: Goose No Fruit finished second

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Race 2
5 Furlongs
Maiden Special Weight (New York Breds)
2-year-old fillies
Purse $40,000

 

Analysis:

6. SHOT GUN PENNIE (Speightstown - Shot Gun Favorite, by Eltish, April 19, 2009, Out Keeneland November weanling, $100,000 Fasig-Tipton Preferred August yearling, Withdrawn OBS Select March juvenile) is by a Grade 1 sprint winner (10-16, 1.2M, 0-1 at two, 10-15 sprinting) that is 17-125 (14%) with juvenile debut runners (7-39, 18%, $2.06 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 3 juvenile debut winners). The dam, a $45,000 weanling and $80,000 yearling, was a multiple stakes-winner (5-16, 202K, 0-2 at two, 2-6 sprinting) and has foaled 2 winners from 3 runners (1-2 with juveniles, 2-3 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to juvenile stakes-placed sprinter Shot Gun Frank (9-49, 133K, 3-12 at two, 9-48 sprinting), Grade 3-placed router Shotgun Fire (5-33, 145K, 1-9 sprinting), multiple stakes-winner Shot Gun Favorite (5-16, 202K, 0-2 at two, 2-6 sprinting), and stakes-placed sprinter Genuine True (5-21, 171K, 5-20 sprinting). Trainer Carlos Martin is 1-15 (7%, $0.69 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in state bred maiden special weight dirt sprints (0-3 at Saratoga). Martin is 2-13 (15%, $2.25 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

5. WINNING CASE (Successful Appeal - Self Rising, by Hansel, April 20, 2009, $10,000 Fasig-Tipton Preferred August yearling) is by a multiple Grade 2 winner (8-22, 654K, 3-6 at two, 7-13 sprinting) that is 129-602 (21%) with juveniles. The dam was a stakes-placed sprinter (4-22, 164K, 1-5 at two, 4-21 sprinting) and has foaled 1 winner from 4 runners (0-3 with juveniles, 1-4 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed turfer Lost Without You (3-19, 143K, 0-3 at two, 0-4 sprinting). Trainer Randi Persaud is 0-10 over the past five years with juveniles on dirt (0-2 at Saratoga).

7. FLEA FLICKER (Hook and Ladder - Savasana, by Scatmandu, February 10, 2009, $9,500 RNA OBS Open August yearling, $120,000 OBS Spring April juvenile) worked two furlongs in 20.3 prior to the April auction. She is by a Grade 2 sprint winner (6-19, 388K, 1-1 at two, 6-18 sprinting) that is 17-116 (15%) with juvenile debut runners (3-26, 12%, $1.51 ROI, 3 juvenile debut winners, 1 at this meet). The dam was a turf winner (2-3, 50K, 1-2 at two) and this is her first starter. The third dam is Grade 2 winner Bodacious Tatas (11-57, 439K, 2-8 at two, won debut, 4-22 sprinting). The June 15, July 13 workouts match trainer Kiaran McLaughlin's juvenile filly For Her Eyes Only (finished fourth in career debut in $50,000 maiden claimer on August 4 with 39 Beyer). The July 28 workout went .01 faster than McLaughlin's juvenile filly Bluegrassislegal (finished seventh in career debut in $150,000 maiden claimer on August 5 with 6 Beyer). McLaughlin is 4-12 (33%, $1.83 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in state bred maiden special weight dirt sprints (1-4, 25%, $1.25 ROI at Saratoga). McLaughlin is 3-22 (13%, $0.81 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

1. CAPE COD CAROL (Rockport Harbor - Expect Becky, by Valid Expectations, March 12, 2009) is by a juvenile Grade 2 route winner (5-8, 324K, 4-4 at two, 2-2 sprinting) that is 8-84 (10%) with juvenile debut runners (4-37, 11%, $0.86 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 2 juvenile debut winners). The dam was unraced and has foaled 3 winners from 4 runners (2-3 with 2yos, 1-3 with sprinters). Cape Cod Carol is a half-sister to stakes-placed router Believeinmenow (6-18, 221K, 2-3 at two, 0-1 sprinting) and stakes-winning turfer Becky's Exchange (4-20, 171K, 0-2 sprinting). The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Thatsusintheolbean (18-77, 455K, 0-4 at two, 6-34 sprinting), stakes-winner Valid Belfast (10-46, 358K, 1-9 at two, 8-35 sprinting) and stakes-placed Belfast Appeal (2-36, 42K, 1-8 at two, 0-7 sprinting). The June 14, July 15 workouts went .01 slower than trainer James Ryerson's juvenile filly Lenders Way (finished second in career debut on July 22 with 56 Beyer). The June 20, June 27 workouts went .01 slower than Ryerson's juvenile Image of Disco (finished thirteenth in career debut in $50,000 maiden claimer on August 6). The June 20 workout went .02 slower than Lenders Way. The July 3 workout went .03 slower than Image of Disco. Ryerson is 1-14 (7%, $0.67 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in state bred maiden special weight dirt sprints (0-1 at Saratoga). Ryerson is 1-10 (10%, $0.57 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

1a. DARN THAT TRIP (Trippi - Twirl, by Darn That Alarm, January 25, 2009, $27,000 RNA Keeneland November weanling) is by a Grade 1 sprint winner (7-14, 666K, 6-11 sprinting) that is 37-241 (15%) with juvenile debut runners (8-42, 19%, $2.50 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 3 juvenile debut winners). The dam was a stakes-placed router at two (1-5, 60K, 1-5 at two, 1-3 sprinting) and has foaled 3 winners from 3 runners (0-3 with juveniles, 3-3 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winning sprinter Chasseresse (5-38, 153K, 1-8 at two, 0-6 on turf) and stakes-placed router Heir D' Twine (7-49, 190K, 1-3 at two, 0-4 on turf). The June 27 workout went .01 faster than trainer James Ryerson's 3-year-old Raffie's Choice (finished fourth in maiden special weight on turf at Belmont on July 1 with 60 Beyer, 54 dirt Beyer). The July 29 workout matches Ryerson's juvenile Image of Disco (finished thirteenth in career debut in $50,000 maiden claimer on August 6). Ryerson is 1-14 (7%, $0.67 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in state bred maiden special weight dirt sprints (0-1 at Saratoga). Ryerson is 1-10 (10%, $0.57 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

8. VICTORY ISLAND (Friendly Island - Victorious Laurie, by Giant's Causeway, February 20, 2009, $60,000 Keeneland September yearling) is the first starter by a Grade 2 sprint winner (8-19, 1.3M, 8-17 sprinting). The dam, a $200,000 yearling, was a sprint winner (2-11, 41K, 1-2 at two, won debut, 2-4 sprinting) and this is her first starter. The dam, a $200,000 yearling, is a half-sister to multiple Grade 1 route winner Victory Gallop (9-16, 3.0M, 3-5 at two, 2-3 sprinting) and multiple stakes-placed Run To Victory (7-26, 258K, 0-2 at two). Trainer Todd Pletcher is 13-22 (59%, $4.03 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in state bred maiden special weight dirt sprints (4-9, 44%, $3.05 ROI at Saratoga). Pletcher is 21-80 (26%, $1.81 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

2. NOTESFROMABROAD (Read the Footnotes - Shanni, by Distinctive Pro, May 17, 2009, Withdrawn OBS Spring April juvenile, $85,000 Fasig-Tipton Spring May juvenile) worked 2 furlongs in 21.4 prior to the May auction. She is by a multiple Grade 2 route winner (5-8, 450K, 4-5 at two, won debut, 2-2 sprinting) that is 5-65 (8%) with juvenile debut runners (1-14, $0.73 ROI with all debut runners in 2011). The dam, a $45,000 yearling, was unplaced (0-2, $530, 0-2 sprinting) and this is her first starter. The dam is a half-sister to juvenile stakes-placed sprinter Shot Gun Frank (9-49, 133K, 3-12 at two, 9-48 sprinting), Grade 3-placed router Shotgun Fire (5-33, 145K, 1-9 sprinting), multiple stakes-winner Shot Gun Favorite (5-16, 202K, 0-2 at two, 2-6 sprinting), and stakes-placed sprinter Genuine True (5-21, 171K, 5-20 sprinting). The June 15 workout went .02 slower than trainer Linda Rice's 4-year-old Recharged (finished third in $20,000 'n2L' claimer on turf at Belmont on June 26 with 73 Beyer, unraced on dirt). Rice is 9-31 (29%, $2.09 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in state bred maiden special weight dirt sprints (4-12, 33%, $2.78 ROI at Saratoga). Rice is 3-36 (8%, $0.95 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

3. MILLIONS IN MOTION (Hook and Ladder - Thanza Million, by Millions, February 22, 2009) is by a Grade 2 sprint winner (6-19, 388K, 1-1 at two, 6-18 sprinting) that is 17-116 (15%) with juvenile debut runners (3-26, 12%, $1.51 ROI, 3 juvenile debut winners, 1 at this meet). The dam was a juvenile sprint winner (1-3, 11K, 1-3 at two, 1-3 sprinting) and has foaled 1 winner from 1 runner (0-1 with 2yos, 0-1 with sprinters). This is the family of multiple stakes-placed Battle Creek (6-20, 144K, 0-2 at two, 6-16 sprinting). Trainer Charlton Baker is 0-5 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in state bred maiden special weight dirt sprints (0-1 at Saratoga). Baker is 0-7 with all debut runners in 2011.

4. MAD FAST (True Direction - Winlocs Grama Rose, by Anjiz, April 5, 2009, $1,000 New York Mixed October weanling, $9,000 OBS Spring April juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.2 prior to the April auction. She is by a Grade 3 sprint winner (8-19, 348K, 8-19 sprinting) that is 0-3 with juvenile debut runners. The dam was a sprint winner (2-23, 90K, 2-17 sprinting) and has foaled 1 winner from 1 runner (0-1 with 2yos, 1-1 with sprinters). This is the family of Grade 1 winner Sharp Belle (10-30, 151K, 3-4 at two). Rice is 9-31 (29%, $2.09 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in state bred maiden special weight dirt sprints (4-12, 33%, $2.78 ROI at Saratoga). Rice is 3-36 (8%, $0.95 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

 

Selections:
1. Shot Gun Pennie
2. Winning Case
3. Flea Flicker

The Play:
Shot Gun Pennie to Win at 2-1 odds or greater