08/05/2011 8:47PM

Saratoga Spa Babies for August 6, Race 6

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Welcome to Spa Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile contest at the meet and hope for a tidy profit.

In past years, I would list the stats for each horse before writing up my analysis, selections and wagering strategy.  In order to streamline the content, this year's Spa Babies will showcase written analyses of each juvenile race.  Each analysis will include relevant statistical information.  Following the analysis, top three selections and wagering strategy will be provided.

 

Race 6
5 1/2 Furlongs
Maiden Claiming ($50,000, New York-breds)
2-year-olds
Purse $29,000

Analysis:

#1a GOOSE NO FRUIT (Proud Citizen - Bellanique, by Joyeux Danseur, March 22, 2009) is by a Grade 2 route winner (3-16, 638K, 1-4 at two, 2-8 sprinting) that is 14-134 (10%) with juvenile debut runners (3-25, 12%, $1.22 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011, 1 juvenile debut winner).  The dam was a turf winner (2-9, 87K, 0-1 at two, 0-2 sprinting) and has foaled 0 winners from 1 runner (0-0 with juveniles, 0-0 with sprinters).  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed French Transition (7-88, 283K, 0-3 at two, 0-17 sprinting).  The July 24 workout matches trainer Carlos Martin's 3-year-old filly Life's Measure (89 Beyer on dirt). 

#7 TESORO SILVER (Chief Seattle - Lady Jove, by Lord Carson, March 25, 2009) is by a multiple Grade 1-placed juvenile router (1-4, 327K, 1-4 at two, won debut, 1-1 sprinting) that is 16-137 (12%) with juvenile debut runners.  The dam, a $33,000 yearling, was a winner (3-20, 15K, 0-1 at two, 2-15 sprinting) and this is her first starter.  The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed Distinctive Kitten (6-36, 260K, 0-5 at two, 3-23 sprinting).  The June 14 workout went .01 faster than trainer Bruce Levine's 4-year-old Run to Grand Ave. (finished third in $10,000 beaten claimer at Belmont on July 2 with 66 Beyer). 

#9 DERBY NATION (Van Nistelrooy - Rambuckus, by Bold Ruckus, February 12, 2009, $24,000 RNA Fasig-Tipton Preferred August yearling) is by a Group 2 turf winner at two (3-6, 229K, 3-6 at two, won debut) that is 6-103 (6%) with juvenile debut runners.  The Van Nistelrooy - Bold Ruckus breeding 'nick' has produced juvenile Grade 1 sprinter Set Play (2-15, 303K, 2-8 at two, won debut, 2-10 sprinting).  The dam was a multiple stakes-placed router (5-27, 103K, 2-9 sprinting) and has foaled 5 winners from 6 runners (2-2 with juveniles, 2 juvenile debut winners, 3-5 with sprinters.  Derby Nation is a half-brother to stakes-placed turfer Jet's Tradition (2-5, 65K, 2-4 sprinting). The dam, a $5,000 yearling and $13,760 yearling, is a half-sister to juvenile stakes-winner Pirate's Quill (3-12, 76K, 2-9 at two, 2-8 sprinting).  The dam is a full sister to Grade 1 route winner Gal in a Ruckus (5-16, 507K, 1-3 at two, won debut, 2-2 sprinting).   The July 18 workout matches trainer Wayne Lukas' juvenile Sark (finished second in maiden special weight on turf on July 27 with 61 Beyer, has 57 Beyer on dirt).

#11 PURE GRIT (Pure Prize - Brassy Kitten, by Dixie Brass, March 14, 2009) is by a Grade 2 route winner (5-17, 475K, 1-3 at two, 0-4 sprinting) that is 76-442 (17%) with juveniles.  The dam was placed (0-18, 54K, 0-3 at two, 0-12 sprinting) and has foaled 1 winner from 2 runners (0-1 with juveniles, 1-2 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed sprinter That's Rich (6-25, 196K, 1-2 at two, 6-23 sprinting). 

#2 HOWIE AND THE CAT (Tale of the Cat - Bella Madame, by Dancing Groom, February 11, 2009, $30,000 Fasig-Tipton Preferred August yearling) is by a Grade 2 sprint winner (5-9, 360K, 1-3 sprinting) that is 211-1124 (19%) with juveniles.  The dam was a Group 1 turf winner in Chile (3-15, 40K, 0-1 at two) and has foaled 4 winners from 5 runners (1-4 with juveniles, 2-5 with sprinters).  Howie and the Cat is a half-brother to stakes-placed Southern (2-8, 77K, 1-4 at two, 1-5 sprinting). The dam is a half-sister to Group 1-placed (Chile) La Dona and stakes-placed (Chile) Genitor (7-49, 41K, 0-6 at two).  The dam is a full sister to Group 2-placed (Chile) Dancing in Love (6-53, 4K, 1-4 at two).

#10 STONECOLDJESSIE (Stonesider - Baby Jess, by Interprete, February 9, 2009) is by a juvenile debut sprint winner (1-1, 25K, 1-1 at two, 1-1 sprinting) that is 0-4 with juvenile debut runners from his first crop of 2011.  The dam was unraced and this is her first starter.  The June 18 workout matches trainer Michael Matz juvenile Union Rags (finished first in career debut in maiden special weight at Delaware on July 12 with 65 Beyer).  The July 25 workout went .01 faster than Matz' 3-year-old East of Danzig (finished eighth in 'n2x' optional claimer on turf on July 31 with 81 Beyer, has 0 Beyer on dirt). 

#5 SILENT THUNDER (Northern Afleet - Strong Little Girl, by Wolf Power, April 6, 2009, $25,000 OBS Spring April juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.2 prior to the April auction.  He is by a multiple Grade 2 winner (5-21, 626K, 1-3 at two, 3-11 sprinting) that is 116-699 (17%) with juveniles.  The dam was a sprint winner (6-28, 183K, 0-3 at two, 6-27 sprinting) and has foaled 4 winners from 7 runners (1-5 with juveniles, 4-7 with sprinters).  The second dam is multiple stakes-winner Sharp Little Girl (8-22, 174K, 1-1 at two, 7-20 sprinting). 

#1 WESTERN TRYST (Western Expression - Pride of Trieste, by Old Trieste, March 22, 2009) is by a Grade 1-placed sprinter (3-16, 140K, 3-10 sprinting) that is 7-98 (7%) with juvenile debut runners. The dam, a $75,000 weanling and $55,000 juvenile, was a sprint winner (1-12, 12K, 1-11 sprinting) and has foaled 0 winners from 1 runner (0-1 with juveniles, 0-1 with sprinters).  This is the family of Grade 3 winner Unknown Heiress (5-27, 73K, 1-12 at two). The July 25 workout matches trainer Phil Serpe's 3-year-old Rumbletown (70 Beyer on turf, 23 Beyer on dirt). 

#3 DEFERLONG (Defer - Miriam's Song, by Peterhof, May 1, 2009, $1,000 RNA Fasig-Tipton Select October yearling, $12,000 OBS Spring April juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.2 prior to the April auction.  He is by a Grade 3 juvenile winner (4-18, 260K, 2-3 at two, won debut, 1-2 sprinting) that is 0-1 with juvenile debut runners from his first crop of 2011. The dam was a sprint winner (6-28, 93K, 1-5 at two, 6-27 sprinting) and has foaled 1 winner from 2 runners (0-1 with juveniles, 1-2 with sprinters).  The dam is a half-sister to Grade 3 router Sabertooth (8-32, 322K, 6-17 sprinting) and juvenile stakes-placed sprinter Smilodon (5-27, 18K, 0-3 at two, 5-26 sprinting).  The July 7 workout matches trainer Merrill Scherer's juvenile filly Kathy's in Charge (finished seventh in maiden special weight at Hoosier on August 3 with 27 Beyer).  The June 18, May 22 workouts match Scherer's juvenile filly Bonay's Arch (finished fifth in career debut in $20,000 maiden claimer at Delaware on July 11 with 0 Beyer). The June 8 workout matches Scherer's juvenile Two Left Shoes (finished third in career debut in $20,000 maiden claimer at Delaware on July 5 with 37 Beyer).  The June 2 workout matches Scherer's juvenile filly Tale of Utopia (finished ninth in career debut in $30,000 maiden claimer at Churchill on July 3 with 26 Beyer). 

#4 TANNERY TOWN (Hook and Ladder - Inca Sun, by Conquistador Cielo, April 17, 2009) is by a Grade 2 sprint winner (6-19, 388K, 1-1 at two, 6-18 sprinting) that is 16-115 (14%) with juvenile debut runners (2-25, 8%, $0.66 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 2 juvenile debut winners).  The dam, a $125,000 yearling, was a first-turf winner (1-6, 20K, 0-1 sprinting) and has foaled 6 winners from 8 runners (3-7 with juveniles, 1 juvenile debut winner, 6-8 with sprinters).  The dam is a full sister to stakes-winner Windansea (5-21, 138K, 4-16 sprinting).  The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winning sprinter Sing and Swing (6-18, 228K, 2-3 at two, won debut, 6-15 sprinting). 

#6 RICO CAPOTE (Disco Rico - Dr. Capote, by Capote, May 14, 2009) is by a Grade 3 sprint winner (9-17, 532K, 2-3 at two, 9-17 sprinting) that is 7-56 (13%) with juvenile debut runners (1-7, 14%, $1.26 ROI with all debut runners in 2011).  The dam was placed sprinting at two (0-1, 4K, 0-1 at two, 0-1 sprinting) and has foaled 2 winners from 2 runners (1-2 with juveniles, debut winner, 2-2 with sprinters).  The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed Dr Rico (5-33, 212K, 1-5 at two, 1-9 sprinting), multiple stakes-winning sprinter Dance Gal Dance (6-9, 273K, 2-2 at two, 6-9 sprinting), stakes-placed router Judge Margaret (7-32, 145K, 0-5 at two, 2-9 sprinting) and stakes-placed router Dr Disco (3-6, 96K, 1-2 at two, 3-5 sprinting)

#12 IMAGE OF DISCO (Disco Rico - Momma's Image, by Marquetry, February 11, 2009) is by a Grade 3 sprint winner (9-17, 532K, 2-3 at two, 9-17 sprinting) that is 7-56 (13%) with juvenile debut runners (1-7, 14%, $1.26 ROI with all debut runners in 2011). The dam was a first-turf winner (1-16, 33K, 0-1 at two, 0-5 sprinting) and has foaled 1 winner from 1 runner (1-1 with juveniles, 1-1 with sprinters). The dam is a full sister to stakes-winning sprinter To Marquet (5-20, 198K, 1-4 at two, 5-13 sprinting).  The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winning sprinter Pretty Imposing (7-27, 276K, 0-1 at two, 7-23 sprinting).

#8 PRINCE CAVANAGH (Chief Seattle - Princess Cavanagh, by Jacques Who, February 16, 2009) is by a multiple Grade 1-placed juvenile router (1-4, 327K, 1-4 at two, won debut, 1-1 sprinting) that is 16-137 (12%) with juvenile debut runners. The dam was a winner (3-10, 85K) and has foaled 1 winner from 3 runners (0-2 with juveniles, 0-3 with sprinters).  The dam is a full sister to multiple stakes-winner Cavanagh Special (5-26, 381K, 3-9 sprinting).  The June 6 workout went .01 slower than trainer Gregory DiPrima's juvenile Party in the Sun (finished seventh in career debut on turf on August 5).  The June 10, June 25, July 9 workouts went .01 faster than Party in the Sun.  The June 18, July 2, July 16, July 23, August 1 workouts match Party in the Sun. 

 

Selections:
1. Goose No Fruit
2. Tesoro Silver
3. Derby Nation

The Play:
Goose No Fruit to Win and Place at 9-2 odds or greater. 

***

*Meet record based on starts, wins, top pick (after scratches) in the money, and profit/loss of that day's play ($2 wager, scheduled surface only): 23-6-9 (-$47.80)