08/04/2011 9:01PM

Saratoga Spa Babies for August 5, Race 9

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Welcome to Spa Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile contest at the meet and hope for a tidy profit.

In past years, I would list the stats for each horse before writing up my analysis, selections and wagering strategy.
In order to streamline the content, this year's Spa Babies will showcase written analyses of each juvenile race.  Each analysis will include relevant statistical information.  Following the analysis, top three selections and wagering strategy will be provided.

Race 9
5 1/2 Furlongs (Turf)
Maiden Special Weight (New York breds)
2-year-olds
Purse $40,000

#2 ADIRONDACK DANCER (Dixieland Band - Camargo, by Brief Truce, March 2, 2009, $30,000 Fasig-Tipton Preferred August yearling, Out Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Grade 2 route winner (8-24, 441K, 3-5 at two, won debut, 0-3 on turf) that is 71-400 (18%) with juvenile debut runners and 63-564 (11%) with first-turf runners.  The dam was a juvenile Group 3 on turf in Ireland (4-14, 150K, 2-5 at two, 4-14 on turf) and has foaled 2 winners from 4 runners (0-2 with juveniles, 0-4 with turfers).  The third dam is multiple stakes-winner Icy Dial (11-38, 186K, 3-9 at two). Trainer Linda Rice is 4-14 (29%) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in state bred maiden special weight turf sprints (3-9, 33% at Saratoga).  Rice is 3-36 (8%, $0.95 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

#1A WESTERN TRYST (Western Expression - Pride of Trieste, by Old Trieste, March 22, 2009) is by a Grade 1-placed sprinter (3-16, 140K, 0-1 on turf) that is 7-98 (7%) with juvenile debut runners and 12-117 (10%) with first-turf runners.  The dam, a $75,000 weanling and $55,000 juvenile, was a sprint winner (1-12, 12K) and has foaled 0 winners from 1 runner (0-1 with juveniles, 0-0 with turfers).  This is the family of Grade 3 winner Unknown Heiress (5-27, 73K, 1-12 at two). The July 25 workout matches trainer Phil Serpe's 3-year-old Rumbletown (70 Beyer on turf).  Serpe is 0-5 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in state bred maiden special weight turf sprints (0-3 at Saratoga).  Serpe is 1-8 (13%, $9.50 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

#8 THEWIZARDOFNASSAU (Tiznow - Worth Fighting For, by Broken Vow, February 23, 2009) is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (8-15, 6.4M) that is 18-197 (9%) with juvenile debut runners (3-50, 6%, $0.42 ROI with all debut runners in 2011) and 22-214 (10%) with first-turf runners.  The dam was a juvenile sprint winner (1-9, 25K, 1-6 at two, 0-2 on turf) and this is her first starter. The dam is a half-sister to Grade 3 winner Daylight Savings (8-34, 461K, 7-31 on turf).  Trainer Jimmy Jerkens is 0-5 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf sprints (0-1 at Saratoga).  Jerkens is 1-27 (4%, $0.35 ROI) since January 1, 2010 with debut runners.

#5 AUDACIOUS DIXIE (Dixieland Band - Miz Audacious, by Miswaki, May 30, 2009, Withdrawn Fasig-Tipton Preferred August yearling, Withdrawn Fasig-Tipton Select October yearling, $30,000 RNA Fasig-Tipton Spring May juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.3 prior to the May auction.  She is by a multiple Grade 2 route winner (8-24, 441K, 3-5 at two, won debut, 0-3 on turf) that is 71-400 (18%) with juvenile debut runners and 63-564 (11%) with first-turf runners.  The dam was placed routing (0-6, 30K, 0-2 on turf) and has foaled 1 winner from 3 runners (0-1 with juveniles, 0-2 with turfers).  This is the family of Grade 3 winner Wings of Grace (6-20, 121K, 2-5 at two). The July 29 workout matches up with trainer David Donk's 3-year-old Canaveral (78 Racing Post Rating).  Trainer Billy Turner Jr. is 0-1 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners on turf.  Turner is 3-76 (3%, $2.41 ROI) since January 1, 2004 with debut runners.

#4 ADRIATIC SPIRIT (Wild Desert - Dinah's Pearls, by Dynaformer, March 11, 2009) is by a stakes-winning router (3-20, 1.0M, 2-8 at two, 1-4 on turf) that is 0-4 with juvenile debut runners and 0-1 with first-turf runners from his first crop of 2011.  The dam, a $25,000 juvenile, was a turf winner (1-23, 87K, 0-2 at two, 1-22 on turf) and has foaled 2 winners from 2 runners (0-2 with juveniles, 0-2 with turfers).  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winner Cat Shaker (4-54, 190K, 1-5 at two, 1-21 on turf). Trainer David Donk is 0-6 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in state bred maiden special weight turf sprints (0-1 at Saratoga).  Donk is 12-251 (4%, $1.32 ROI) with all debut runners since January 1, 2000.

#7 SKORTON (Utopia - Sari, by Cozzene, February 14, 2009, Out Fasig-Tipton Preferred August yearling) is by a multiple Grade 1 winner in Japan (9-34, 4.9M, 3-4 at two, 0-8 on turf) that is 1-15 (7%) with juveniles and 0-3 with turfers from his first crop of 2011.  The dam was placed on turf in England (0-3, 1K, 0-1 at two, 0-3 on turf) and has foaled 1 winner from 4 runners (1-3 with juveniles, 1-3 with turfers).  Skorton is a half-brother to juvenile stakes-winning turfer My Magic Moment (2-19, 149K, 2-5 at two, 2-17 on turf).  The second dam is stakes-placed turfer (England) Yamuna (1-5, 9K, 0-1 at two, 1-5 on turf).  Trainer Seth Benzel is 0-1 over the past five years with juveniles in state bred maiden special weight turf sprints.  Experience usually counts in baby races on grass and Skorton has shown good speed in both outings against open foes. 

#6 FREUDIAN THERAPIST (Freud - Jazzy Discovery, by Regal Discovery, May 2, 2009) is by a Group 2-placed turfer (1-12, 44K, 0-3 at two, 1-12 on turf) that is 232-1169 (20%) with juvenile runners and 26-156 (17%) with first-turf runners. The dam was unplaced (0-1, $164) and has foaled 1 winner from 4 runners (0-3 with juveniles, 0-1 with turfers).  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winning turfer Ma Femme (4-26, 170K, 4-23 on turf).  The June 29 workout went .02 slower than trainer John Campo Jr.'s 3-year-old A Rod (finished seventh in 'n1x' on turf at Belmont on July 3 with 45 Beyer).  Campo is 0-4 over the past five years with juveniles going dirt to turf.  By solid turf sire, this colt adds Lasix while dropping in with state breds for the first time.

#9 SYNTHESIZER (Quiet American - Musical, by El Gran Senor, February 5, 2009) is by a Grade 1 route winner (4-12, 754K, 0-1 at two, 0-3 on turf) that is 20-361 (5%) with juvenile debut runners and 31-422 (7%) with first-turf runners.  The dam was a Grade 3-placed router (4-10, 121K, 2-5 on turf, first-turf winner) and has foaled 2 winners from 4 runners (0-2 with juveniles, 0-4 with turfers).  The Quiet American - El Gran Senor breeding 'nick' has produced multiple stakes-winning turfer Scolara (5-28, 458K, 0-1 at two, 5-26 on turf). The dam is a half-sister to Group 3 turf winner Rhythm Band (5-18, 1.3M, 1-1 at two, 5-17 on turf, first-turf winner) and stakes-placed turfer Storm Dixie (1-10, 63K, 1-3 at two, won debut, 1-10 on turf, first-turf winner). The July 15, July 24 workouts match trainer H. James Bond's juvenile filly Lisini (finished eighth in career debut on turf on August 4 with 38 Beyer.  Bond is 0-1 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in state bred maiden special weight turf sprints (0-1 at Saratoga).  Bond is 1-6 (17%, $2.37 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

#11 MISSISSIPPI DUEL (Bernstein - River Nore, by Archers Bay, January 30, 2009, $75,000 Fasig-Tipton Preferred August yearling) is by a multiple Group 3 turf winner (4-8, 173K, 2-3 at two, won debut, 4-7 on turf, first-turf winner) that is 23-188 (12%) with juvenile debut runners (3-29, 10%, $1.48 ROI with all debut runners in 2011,, 1 older winner on turf) and 32-215 (15%) with first-turf runners.  The dam was a stakes-winning sprinter (2-15, 188K, 1-2 at two, 0-2 on turf) and this is her first starter.  The third dam is multiple stakes-winner Fat Emma (7-28, 225K, 0-3 on turf).  The July 27 workout went .01 faster than trainer Bill Mott's juvenile filly Fontanne (entered in today's 4th race).  Mott is 0-1 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in state bred maiden special weight turf sprints (0-1 at Saratoga).  Mott is 3-32 (9%, $1.60 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

#10 LITTLE DALE (Yankee Gentleman - Our Mimi, by Our Emblem, April 29, 2009, $3,000 Fasig-Tipton October yearling, $24,000 RNA OBS Spring April juvenile, Withdrawn OBS Open June juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.1 prior to the April auction.  She is by a stakes-winner (4-10, 202K, 0-1 on turf) that is 61-379 (16%) with juvenile runners and 9-81 (11%) with first-turf runners.  The dam was a winner (3-22, 98K, 0-1 at two, 1-4 on turf, first-turf winner) and has foaled 1 winner from 2 runners (0-2 with juveniles, 0-0 with turfers).  The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed Iztla (9-44, 152K, 1-2 at two, 0-5 on turf).  Trainer Dale Romans is 0-1 over the past five years with second-time juveniles going dirt to turf in state bred maiden special weight sprints.  Showed good speed in his career debut and has worked swiftly on grass.

1. SPORTSWRITER (Maybry's Boy - Point Spread, by Point Given, February 19, 2009) is by a Grade 3 sprint winner (8-43, 322K, 1-5 at two, 0-4 on turf) that is 0-1 with juvenile debut runners from his first crop of 2011.  This is his first turf starter.  The dam, a $150,000 yearling and $185,000 juvenile, was a sprint winner (1-3, 26K) and has foaled 1 winner from 1 runner (0-1 with juveniles, 1-1 with turfers).  The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Holy Capote (7-25, 325K, 2-3 at two, won debut, 1-10 on turf, first-turf winner).  Trainer Carlos Martin is 1-10 (10%) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in state bred maiden special weight turf sprints (0-4 at Saratoga).  Martin is 1-11 (9%, $1.35 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

#3 PARTY IN THE SUN (Sun King - Party Stripes, by Candy Stripes, April 28, 2009, $19,700 RNA New York Mixed October weanling, Withdrawn yearling Fasig-Tipton October yearling) is by a multiple Grade 2 winner (6-28, 2.2M, 1-4 at two) that is 0-8 with juvenile debut runners and 0-1 with first-turf runners from his first crop of 2011.  The dam, a $16,000 yearling, was unplaced (0-11, 2K, 0-3 at two) and has foaled 1 winner from 3 runners (1-3 with juveniles, 0-2 with turfers).  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed router Melancholy Blues (2-11, 24K, 0-1 on turf).  Trainer Greg DiPrima is 0-1 over the past five years with debut runners on turf (0-1 at Saratoga).  DiPrima is 0-7 since January 1, 2007 with debut runners.

#1x THE PRIZE FIGHTER (Pure Prize - Miss Winning Sweep, by End Sweep, April 10, 2009) is by a Grade 2 route winner (5-17, 475K, 1-3 at two, 0-4 sprinting) that is 76-442 (17%) with juveniles.  The Prize Fighter is a half-brother to Grade 3-placed juvenile sprinter Winning Expression (1-5, 78K, 1-5 at two, 1-5 sprinting) and stakes-placed router Shrewd Ice (2-8, 134K, 1-1 at two, 1-4 sprinting).  The dam, a $75,000 yearling, was a sprint winner (2-5, 54K, 1-3 at two, 2-5 sprinting) and has foaled four winners from five runners (2-4 with juveniles, 4-5 with sprinters). This is the female family of Precisionist (20-46, 3.4M, 3-5 at two, 3-9 sprinting).  Serpe is 0-2 over the past five years with second-time juveniles in maiden special weight dirt sprints (0-1 at Saratoga).  Figures tough if this race is washed off the turf.

 

Selections:
1. Adirondack Dancer
2. Western Tryst
3. Thewizardofnassau

The Play:
Adirondack Dancer to Win at 2-1 odds or greater

 

***

*Meet record based on starts, wins, top pick (after scratches) in the money, and profit/loss of that day's play ($2 wager, scheduled surface only): 20-6-9 (-$43.80)