08/04/2011 7:54PM

Saratoga Spa Babies for August 5, Race 4

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Welcome to Spa Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile contest at the meet and hope for a tidy profit.

In past years, I would list the stats for each horse before writing up my analysis, selections and wagering strategy.
In order to streamline the content, this year's Spa Babies will showcase written analyses of each juvenile race.  Each analysis will include relevant statistical information.  Following the analysis, top three selections and wagering strategy will be provided.

 

Race 4
5 1/2 Furlongs (Turf)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-old fillies
Purse $50,000

 

Analysis:

#10 GLINDA THE GOOD (Hard Spun - Magical Flash, by Miswaki, February 17, 2009 in Kentucky, $200,000 RNA Keeneland September yearling, Withdrawn Fasig-Tipton Spring May juvenile) is by a Grade 1 sprint winner (7-13, 2.6M, 3-3 at two) that is 2-14 (14%, $1.48 ROI) with juvenile debut runners (1 debut winner on turf) and 1-3 (33%) with first-turf runners from his first crop in 2011.  The dam, a $60,000 yearling, was a sprint winner (1-11, 69K, 0-3 on turf) and has foaled 11 winners from 12 runners (5-8 with juveniles, 4 juvenile debut winners, 6-9 with turfers, 2 first-turf winners).  Glinda the Good is a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed Oysters (3-36, 224K, 1-3 at two, 2-14 on turf), multiple stakes-winner Bright Magic (4-12, 212K, 0-3 on turf), stakes-winner Hot War (3-13, 165K, 1-1 at two, 1-4 on turf), stakes-placed House of Magic (3-20, 99K, 0-3 at two, 2-11 on turf, first-turf winner), Grade 3 turf winner Take the Ribbon (4-13, 372K, 0-1 at two, 4-12 on turf), stakes-placed router Inside Passage (3-14, 129K, 0-2 on turf) and stakes-placed sprinter Flash Mash (2-4, 65K, 2-2 at two).  The dam is a half-sister to juvenile Grade 2 sprinter Magical Mile (4-7, 131K, 2-2 at two, 0-1 on turf), stakes-winning sprinter Magic Sister (5-8, 116K, 0-1 on turf), multiple Grade 1 winner Magical Maiden (8-26, 901K, 2-4 at two, won debut, 1-2 on turf, first-turf winner).  The July 19 workout went .01 slower than trainer Steve Asmussen's 3-year-old filly Keiko (finished fourth in career debut on dirt on July 27 with 53 Beyer).  Asmussen is 5-30 (17%, $1.71 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf sprints (0-1 at Saratoga).  Asmussen is 10-95 (10%, $1.20 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

#1 GOLDEN ROCK (Bernardini - Zehoorr, by Storm Cat, January 27, 2009 in Florida, $60,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (6-8, 3.0M) that is 7-42 (17%) with juvenile debut runners (6-36, 17%, $1.77 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 3 juvenile debut winners, 1 older winner out of a Storm Cat mare) and 1-26 (4%) with first-turf runners. The dam, an $875,000 yearling, was unraced and this is her first starter.  The dam is a half-sister to Grade 3 winner She's Indy Money (6-16, 342K, 1-2 at two, won debut, 1-4 on turf).  The July 25 workout matches trainer Christophe Clement's 3-year-old Eleven Final Fours (finished sixth in $35,000 'n2L' claimer on turf at Saratoga on August 4 with 73 Beyer).  Trainer Christophe Clement is 3-11 (27%) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf sprints (0-2 at Saratoga).  Clement is 6-42 (14%, $1.77 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

#7 FONTANNE (Distorted Humor - Double Cat, by Storm Cat, May 4, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a multiple Grade 2 sprint winner (8-23, 769K) that is 53-297 (18%) with juvenile debut runners (6-34, 18%, $1.87 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 juvenile debut winner out of a Storm Cat mare) and 34-370 (9%) with first-turf runners.  The Distorted Humor - Storm Cat breeding 'nick' has produced stakes-winning sprinter Ha Ha Tonka (4-6, 151K, 0-1 at two) and Grade 2 route winner Cowtown Cat (4-16, 562K, 1-3 at two).  The dam was a stakes-winner on turf (4-10, 153K, 4-8 on turf, first-turf winner) and has foaled 3 winners from 5 runners (1-3 with juveniles, juvenile debut winner, 1-2 with turfers, first-turf winner).  The dam is a half-sister to Grade 1 turfer War Chant (5-7, 1.1M, 1-1 at two, 2-2 on turf), multiple stakes-winner Ministers Wild Cat (6-22, 368K, 0-1 at two, 0-2 on turf) and Group 2 turf winner Ivan Denisovich (3-14, 437K, 2-6 at two, 3-13 on turf).  The July 27 workout went .01 slower than trainer Bill Mott's juvenile Mississippi Duel (entered in today's ninth race). Mott is 0-26 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf sprints (0-11 at Saratoga).  Mott is 3-32 (9%, $1.60 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

#6 ASSATEAGUE  (Stormy Atlantic - Amelia, by Dixieland Band, March 25, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a multiple stakes-winning sprinter (6-15, 148K, 0-1 at two) that is 49-430 (11%) with juvenile debut runners (8-50, 16%, $2.12 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 2 juvenile debut winners, 3 older debut winners on turf) and 59-448 (13%) with first-time turfers.  The dam was a stakes-winner on turf (4-17, 179K, 0-2 at two, 4-12 on turf, first-turf winner) and has foaled 2 winners from 4 runners (1-3 with juveniles, juvenile debut winner, 2-4 with turfers, 1 first-turf winner).  Assateague is a half-sister to stakes-placed turfer Kindergarten Kid (3-8, 104K, 3-8 on turf).  The dam is a half-sister to juvenile Group 3 turf winner Bertolini (2-23, 723K, 1-7 at two, 2-21 on turf) and stakes-winner Alchemilla (5-13, 208K, 1-1 at two, 0-1 on turf). Trainer Michael Matz is 1-5 (20%, $5.08 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf sprints (1-3, 33%, $8.46 ROI at Saratoga).  Matz is 1-13 (7%, $1.37 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

#12 TAP A BAY YANKEE (Tapit - Raphaela, by Grand Slam, May 6, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a Grade 1 route winner (3-6, 557K, 2-2 at two) that is 73-464 (16%) with juveniles and 14-141 (10%) with first-turfers.  The Tapit - Grand Slam breeding 'nick' has produced stakes-winning router Bandbox (4-6, 183K, 3-4 at two, 1-1 on turf).  The dam was unplaced (0-3, $356) and this is her first foal.  This is the family of Grade 1 turfer Spectacular Tide (6-34, 521K, 6-31 on turf, first-turf winner). Trainer Bob Hess Jr. is 0-1 over the past five years with juveniles going dirt to turf.  The runner-up from the debut try returned to graduate here yesterday.

#13 DANCIN N PRANCIN (Johar - Cozzmic Wonder, by Cozzene, April 2, 2009 in Kentucky, Out Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Grade 1 turf winner (6-16, 1.4M, 6-16 on turf, first-turf winner) that is 6-70 (9%) with juvenile debut runners (4-25, 16%, $1.44 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 juvenile debut winner, 2 older winners on turf) and 17-81 (21%) with first-turfers. The dam, a $50,000 short yearling and $170,000 yearling, was placed (0-5, 23K, 0-3 on turf) and has foaled 2 winners from 3 runners (1-3 with juveniles, debut winner, 2-2 with turf runners, first-turf winner). This is the female family of Grade 3 turf winner Chorwon (13-44, 1.1M, 10-38 on turf). Trainer Richard Dutrow Jr. is 0-5 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf sprints. Dutrow is 2-13 (15%, $1.40 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

#3 DIXIE DARLING (Dixie Union - Holy Way, by Holy Bull, February 27, 2009 in Kentucky, $65,000 OBS Select March juvenile) worked 2 furlongs in 22.2 prior to the March auction.  She is by a multiple Grade 1 winner (7-12, 1.2M, 4-6 at two, won debut) that is 27-243 (11%) with juvenile debut runners (4-30, 13%, $1.15 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 juvenile debut winner) and 20-223 (9%) with first-turf runners.  The dam, an $115,000 yearling, was placed sprinting in the slop (0-2, 2K, 0-1 on turf) and has foaled 3 winners from 3 runners (1-3 with juveniles, 1-2 with sprinters in North American.  Dixie Darling is a half-brother to Group 2-placed Huachano (4-24, 13K, 2-8 at two in Peru).  The dam is a half-sister to multiple Grade 1 juvenile router Phone Chatter (5-15, 838K, 4-6 at two, 0-3 on turf).  The June 2, June 15 workouts went .01 slower than trainer Kathy Ritvo's juvenile Enrico Pallazzo (finished fifth in career debut on dirt at Belmont on July 1 with 42 Beyer). The June 25 workout matches Enrico Pallazzo.  The July 16, July 22 workouts match Ritvo's 3-year-old Whistlin' Dixie (finished second in a $25,000 maiden claimer on turf at Saratoga on August 4 with 70 Beyer).   Ritvo is 0-2 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf sprints (0-1 at Saratoga).  Ritvo is 0-15 since January 1, 2004 with debut runners.

#5 SISTERHOOD (Kitten's Joy - Caterette, by Cozzene, March 25, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a multiple Grade 1 turf winner (9-14, 2.0M, 2-4 at two, 9-12 on turf) that is 55-289 (19%) with juveniles and 82-525 (16%) with turfers.  The dam was a turf winner (1-8, 13K, 1-8 on turf) and has foaled 2 winners from 3 runners (2-3 with juveniles, 2-3 with turfers).  Sisterhood is a full sister to Grade 3-placed juvenile Becky's Kitten (4-25, 238K, 1-6 at two, 2-9 on turf) and Grade 3-placed juvenile Cozy Kitten (1-7, 96K, 1-2 at two, 1-6 on turf).  The dam is a half-sister to juvenile stakes-winner Enduring Will (2-10, 149K, 2-3 at two, 0-3 on turf).   Trainer Wesley Ward is 3-5 (60%, $4.90 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles in maiden special weight turf sprints (1-2, 50%, $3.65 ROI at Saratoga). Gained valuable experience in debut for barn that excels with juveniles. 

#4 INNY MINNIE (Hard Spun - Inny River, by Seattle Slew, February 4, 2009 in Kentucky, $210,000 RNA Fasig-Tipton Select August yearling, Withdrawn OBS Select March juvenile, $240,000 Keeneland April juvenile) worked 2 furlongs in 21.2 prior to the April auction.  She is by a Grade 1 sprint winner (7-13, 2.6M, 3-3 at two) that is 2-14 (14%, $1.48 ROI) with juvenile debut runners (1 debut winner on turf) from his first crop of 2011 and 1-3 (33%) with first-turf runners.  The dam, a $330,000 yearling, was placed sprinting (0-4, 10K) and has foaled 6 winners from 8 runners (3-6 with juveniles, 1 juvenile debut winner, 3-7 with turfers, 2 first-turf winners).  Inny Minnie is a half-sister to Group 2 turf winner Montgomery's Arch (3-11, 228K, 2-4 at two, won debut, 3-11 on turf, first-turf winner) and juvenile stakes-winner Welcome Inn (3-12, 137K, 3-8 at two, 0-1 on turf).  The dam is a half-sister to multiple Grade 3 winner Lotus Pool (11-43, 698K, 9-36 on turf, first-turf winner), multiple Grade 1-placed router Golden Larch (11-46, 604K, 1-1 at two, 0-2 on turf), stakes-placed Tru Story (4-44, 131K, 1-4 at two, 0-1 on turf), Grade 3-placed juvenile router Honour a Bull (3-18, 92K, 1-4 at two, 0-4 on turf) and Grade 3-placed router Golden Glen (11-60, 423K, 0-5 at two, 1-11 on turf).  The June 27 workout matches trainer Steve Margolis' 3-year-old filly Moon Buzz (finished first in 'n1x' optional claimer on dirt at Hoosier on August 2 with 85 Beyer).  The June 27 workout matches Margolis' 5-year-old Cash Refund (finished third in the Dale Baird Memorial Stakes on dirt at Mountaineer on July 3 with 75 Beyer).  The July 11 workout matches Margolis' 3-year-old Southern Rocket (69 Beyer on dirt, 54 on polytrack).  Margolis is 0-5 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf sprints.  Margolis is 1-13 (7%, $1.09 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

#9 SOMALI LEMONADE (Lemon Drop Kid - Chic Corine, by Nureyev, April 26, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a multiple Grade 1 winner (10-24, 3.2M, 2-6 at two) that is 15-163 (9%) with juvenile debut runners (3-36, 8%, $0.86 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 juvenile debut winner) and 35-282 (12%) with first-turf runners.  The dam, a $380,000 yearling was unraced and has foaled 5 winners from 7 runners (1-4 with juveniles, 4-6 with turfers).  Somali Lemonade is a half-sister to stakes-winner Kris's Dancer (14-61, 215K, 0-1 at two, 5-14 on turf), Grade 3-placed Chic Joy (1-16, 95K, 0-2 at two, 1-12 on turf) and stakes-winner Rasta Farian (4-23, 238K, 1-5 at two, 3-18 on turf).  The dam is a half-sister to Grade 2 winner Tara Roma (5-16, 192K, 0-3 on turf) and Grade 2 sprinter Waldoboro (6-19, 202K, 0-1 on turf). The July 1 workout matches trainer Michael Matz' 3-year-old filly Arcina (finished third in'n1x' allowance on dirt at Penn National on July 8 with 45 Beyer, has 48 turf Beyer).  Trainer Michael Matz is 1-5 (20%, $5.08 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf sprints (1-3, 33%, $8.46 ROI at Saratoga).  Matz is 1-13 (7%, $1.37 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

#2 CORAL GLADE (Unbridled's Song - Jessamy Lane, by Hennessy, January 29, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (5-12, 1.3M, 2-3 at two, won debut) that is 36-283 (13%) with juvenile debut runners (6-30, 20%, $1.22 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 2 juvenile debut winners) and 48-387 (12%) with first-turf runners.  The dam, a $750,000 yearling, was unplaced (0-2, $440, 0-1 on turf) and has foaled 0 winners from 1 runner (0-0 with juveniles, 0-0 with turfers).  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winning router Mambo in Seattle (4-14, 421K, 1-2 at two).  The June 27 workout matches trainer Todd Pletcher's juvenile filly Select Cat (finished first in career debut on dirt in maiden special weight on July 25 with 70 Beyer).  The June 27 workout went .05 slower than Pletcher's juvenile filly Christmas Trippi (finished third in career debut on dirt at Delaware on July 30 with 42 Beyer).  The June 27 workout matches Pletcher's juvenile filly Heather's Feather (entered in today's second race).  The July 18 workout went .01 faster than Select Cat.  The July 1 workout went .01 faster than Heather's Feather. Pletcher is 4-39 (10%, $0.57 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf sprints (1-13, 8%, $0.81 ROI at Saratoga). Pletcher is 21-77 (27%, $1.88 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

#11 MY DUE PROCESS (Henny Hughes - Easy Action, by Crafty Prospector, March 4, 2009 in Kentucky, $30,000 OBS Select March juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.1 prior to the March sale.  She is by a multiple Grade 1 sprint winner (6-10, 1.1M, 3-6 at two) that is 24-137 (18%) with juveniles and 1-21 (5%) with first-turfers.  The dam, a $160,000 yearling and $300,000 juvenile, was a stakes-placed sprinter at two (4-16, 149K, 2-4 at two) and has foaled 3 winners from 4 runners (3-4 with juveniles, 0-1 with turfers).  My Due Process is a half-sister to Grade 2-placed juvenile sprinter Kong's Revenge (3-9, 78K, 1-3 at two) and stakes-placed juvenile sprinter Bellissima Luna (2-19, 73K, 1-6 at two, 0-1 on turf).  The dam is a full sister to stakes-placed juvenile sprinter Subito (1-11, 52K, 1-2 at two, 0-1 on turf).  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed Canaan Land (6-53, 150K, 2-4 at two, 4-23 on turf, first-turf winner), Grade 3 winner Itty Bitty Pretty (2-9, 187K, 1-5 at two), multiple stakes-winner Greeley's Conquest (7-26, 475K, 0-1 at two, 0-1 on turf) and juvenile stakes-placed router Never Quicker (1-11, 54K, 0-3 at two, 0-1 on turf). Trainer Dale Romans is 0-3 over the past five years with juveniles going dirt to turf following a 31-60 day layoff in maiden special weight sprint. Overmatched in the Grade 3 Debutante at Churchill Downs on June 25, but seems well-spotted here.

#8 DOROTHY'S SPIRIT (Scat Daddy - Im Out First, by Allen's Prospect, April 29, 2009 in Kentucky, $120,000 Keeneland September yearling, Withdrawn OBS Select March juvenile) is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (5-9, 1.3M, 3-5 at two, won debut) that is 4-23 (17%, $1.32 ROI) with juvenile debut runners from his first crop of 2011 and 1-4 (25%) with first-turf runners.  The dam, a $26,000 weanling, was a multiple stakes-winner (10-56, 438K, 1-10 at two, 0-6 on turf) and has foaled 4 winners from 6 runners (1-4 with juveniles, 1-3 with turfers).  Dorothy's Spirit is a half-sister to multiple juvenile stakes-winning sprinter Im a Dixie Girl (3-11, 167K, 3-9 at two) and stakes-winning turfer First Ascent (5-19, 141K, 5-15 on turf).  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winning router Zenith (4-24, 205K, 0-3 at two, 0-7 on turf).  Trainer Chad Brown is 1-6 (17%) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf sprints (1-4, 25% at Saratoga, winner at this meet).  Brown is 2-23 (8%, $0.88 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

 

Selections:
1. Glinda the Good
2. Golden Rock
3. Fontanne

The Play:
Glinda the Good to Win and Place at 9-2 odds or greater.

 

***

*Meet record based on starts, wins, top pick (after scratches) in the money, and profit/loss of that day's play ($2 wager, scheduled surface only): 20-6-9 (-$43.80)