08/04/2011 8:48PM

Saratoga Spa Babies for August 5, Race 2

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Welcome to Spa Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile contest at the meet and hope for a tidy profit.

In past years, I would list the stats for each horse before writing up my analysis, selections and wagering strategy.  In order to streamline the content, this year's Spa Babies will showcase written analyses of each juvenile race.  Each analysis will include relevant statistical information.
Following the analysis, top three selections and wagering strategy will be provided.

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Thursday's results:

Race 3:  Reservation Blues scratched.  Second-choice Composition finished seventh
Race 4:  Dayatthespa finished first
Race 5:  Not Close finished sixth

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Friday, August 5, 2011

Race 2
5 1/2 Furlongs
Maiden Claiming ($150,000)
2-year-old fillies
Purse $44,000

 

Analysis:

#3 HEATHER'S FEATHER (Dixie Union - Santa Rosa Island, by Valiant Nature, April 23, 2009 in Kentucky, $67,000 Keeneland November weanling, Withdrawn Fasig-Tipton Summer July yearling, $77,000 Fasig-Tipton Select October yearling) is by a multiple Grade 1 winner (7-12, 1.2M, 4-6 at two, won debut, 5-7 sprinting) that is 27-243 (11%) with juvenile debut runners (4-30, 13%, $1.15 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 juvenile debut winner).  The dam was a sprint winner (1-10, 68K, 1-3 sprinting) and has foaled 0 winners from 4 runners (0-3 with juveniles, 0-2 with sprinters).  The second dam is juvenile Grade 1 winner Qualique (2-11, 91K, 2-9 at two).  The May 30, July 4, July 12, July 18 workouts match trainer Todd Pletcher's juvenile filly Select Cat (finished first in career debut here in maiden special weight on July 25 with 70 Beyer).  The June 27 workout went .05 slower than Select Cat.  The June 27 workout went .05 slower than Pletcher's juvenile filly Christmas Trippi (finished third in career debut at Delaware on July 30 with 42 Beyer).  The June 27 workout matches Pletcher's juvenile filly Coral Glade (entered in today's fourth race).  The July 18 workout went .01 slower than Coral Glade.  The July 31 workout matches Pletcher's 4-year-old Rule (finished first in the Birdstone Stakes at Saratoga on August 4 with 104 Beyer).  Pletcher is 3-18 (17%) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden claimers (0-5 at Saratoga).  Pletcher is 21-77 (27%, $1.88 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

#5 HEART OF DESTINY (Lion Heart - Doc's Destiny, by Doc's Leader, February 14, 2009 in Kentucky, $12,000 RNA Fasig-Tipton Summer July yearling) is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (5-10, 1.3M, 3-3 at two, 2-2 sprinting) that is 26-182 (14%) with juvenile debut runners (10-54, 19%, $1.99 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 6 juvenile debut winners, 1 at this meet).  The dam was stakes-placed (4-13, 152K) and has foaled 2 winners from 5 runners (0-4 with juveniles, 0-4 with sprinters).  Heart of Destiny is a half-brother to Grade 2-placed router Brother Bobby (3-13, 298K, 0-1 at two).  This is the female family of multiple Grade 1 winner Life's Hope (15-87, 845K).  The August 1 workout went .01 slower than trainer James Baker's 4-year-old Bergerac (90 Beyer on turf). Baker is 0-3 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden claiming dirt sprints.  Baker is 0-31 since January 1, 2009 with debut runners.

#2 SINGLET (Real Quiet - Taylor's Choice, by Conquistador Cielo, February 28, 2009 in Florida, $35,000 OBS Spring April juvenile) worked 2 furlongs in 22.2 prior to the April auction.  She is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (6-20, 3.2M, 2-9 at two, 0-5 sprinting) that is 7-141 (5%) with juvenile debut runners. The dam was a sprint winner (4-11, 50K, 4-10 sprinting) and has foaled 1 winner from 2 runners (0-2 with juveniles, 0-2 with sprinters).  The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed Winning Glory (3-24, 72K, 2-10 sprinting).  The July 27 workout matches trainer Tony Dutrow's juvenile Sovereign Citizen (finished first in career debut in maiden special weight at Delaware on August 1 with 59 Beyer).  Dutrow is 3-35 (9%, $0.89 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden claiming dirt sprints.  Dutrow is 6-17 (35%, $3.08 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

#6 SHESA SWEET TALKER (Stormin Fever - Stalwart's Secret, by Stalwart, April 8, 2009 in Florida, $24,000 RNA OBS Spring April juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 11 prior to the April auction.  She is by a Grade 3 sprint winner (8-21, 484K, 1-2 at two, 6-12 sprinting) that is 103-807 (13%) with juveniles. The Stormin Fever - Stalwart breeding 'nick' has produced Grade 1 turfer Sweet Talker (9-18, 1.0M, 3-5 at two, 2-3 sprinting).  The dam, a $25,000 yearling, was a sprint winner (5-19, 143K, 2-6 at two, 5-18 sprinting) and has foaled 4 winners from 5 runners (0-4 with juveniles, 4-5 with sprinters).  The second dam is multiple stakes-placed I Like Secrets (2-18, 62K, 2-14 sprinting). Trainer Wesley Ward is 1-1 (100%, $4.20 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles returning off a 31-60 day layoff following a trainer change and going from maiden special weight to maiden claimer in dirt sprint. Lost ground late in both starts at Delaware, but looms a forward factor once again.  Note that the winner of the June 27 heat returned to finish second in the Grade 3 Schuylerville here with a 72 Beyer.

#7 SIBERIAN WILDCAT (Wildcat Heir - Artic Experience, by Slewpy, February 20, 2009 in Florida, Out Keeneland November weanling, $24,000 RNA OBS Select yearling, $46,000 OBS Spring juvenile) worked one furlong in 10.1 prior to the April auction. She is by a Grade 1 sprint winner (6-12, 424K, 1-2 at two, 6-12 sprinting) that is 76-363 (21%) with juveniles. The dam was a Grade 2-placed sprinter at two (1-3, 27K, 1-2 at two, 1-3 sprinting) and has foaled 4 winners from 6 runners (4-6 with juvenile runners, 4-6 with sprinters). Siberian Wildcat is a half-sister to juvenile stakes-winning sprinter Crackalackin (5-12, 105K, 2-3 at two, 5-12 sprinting). This is the female family of Grade 3 winner Kissapotamus (10-58, 152K, 2-7 at two). Trainer Gary Contessa is 0-5 over the past five years with second-time juveniles adding blinkers and dropping from maiden special weights in dirt sprints (0-5 at Saratoga).  May not have appreciated slop when chasing a favored winner here 11 days ago and adds blinkers.

#1 BLUEGRASSISLEGAL (Bluegrass Cat - Shop Glack, by Smoke Glacken, March 19, 2009 in Florida, $100,000 Keeneland September yearling), is by a Grade 1 route winner (5-11, 1.7M, 3-4 at two, 1-2 sprinting) that is 12-74 (16%) with juvenile debut runners (3-36, 8%, $2.30 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 3 juvenile debut winners).  The dam was unplaced (0-6, 10K, 0-6 at two, 0-6 sprinting) and this is her first starter.  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winning sprinter Bought in Dixie (7-47, 319K, 0-1 at two, 7-46 sprinting), juvenile Grade 2-placed sprinter Bulling (4-69, 203K, 2-9 at two, 4-47 sprinting), stakes-winner Shop Again (4-21, 122K, 0-6 at two, 3-14 sprinting),Grade 1 route winner Miss Shop (9-27, 1.1M, 2-3 at two, won debut, 1-3 sprinting) and Grade 2 sprint winner Trappe Shot (6-9, 576K, 0-1 at two, 5-6 sprinting).  The June 23 workout went .01 slower than trainer Kiaran McLaughlin's juvenile filly For Her Eyes Only (finished fourth in career debut in a $50,000 maiden claimer on August 2 with 39 Beyer.  The July 5 workout matches McLaughlin's 3-year-old filly War Clan (finished sixth in 'n1x' on turf at Saratoga on July 23 with 72 Beyer, 15 Beyer on dirt).  McLaughlin is 0-7 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden claiming dirt sprints (0-2 at Saratoga).  McLaughlin is 3-20 (15%, $0.90 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

#8 ALYDARLA (Henny Hughes - Mamboalot, by Kingmambo, February 7, 2009 in Kentucky, $15,000 RNA Keeneland September yearling, Out Keeneland April juvenile, $32,000 OBS Spring April juvenile) worked 2 furlongs in 20.4 prior to the April auction.  She is by a multiple Grade 1 sprint winner (6-10, 1.1M, 3-6 at two, 6-8 sprinting) that is 24-137 (18%) with juveniles.  The dam, a $250,000 yearling, was a stakes-placed sprinter (3-11, 53K, 1-1 at two, 0-1 sprinting) and has foaled 1 winner from 2 runners (0-2 with juveniles, 1-2 with sprinters).  The second dam is Grade 2 winner Investalot (7-15, 310K, 6-10 sprinting).  Trainer James Chapman is 0-1 over the past five years with second-time juveniles in maiden claiming dirt sprints. Simply overmatched in the Schuylerville, but fits much better in this spot.

#4 TIARA (Corinthian - Fusaichi Lady, by Fusaichi Pegasus, January 30, 2009 in Kentucky, $190,000 RNA Fasig-Tipton Select August yearling, Out Keeneland September yearling, Out Keeneland April juvenile, Withdrawn OBS Spring April juvenile, Withdrawn Fasig-Tipton Spring May juvenile) is by a Grade 1 route winner (6-12, 1.2M, 1-2 at two, 0-1 sprinting) that is 1-13 (8%, $0.23 ROI) with juvenile debut runners from his first crop of 2011.  The dam, a $525,000 yearling, was unplaced (0-1, $920, 0-1 sprinting) and this is her first starter.  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed sprinter Proposal (2-14, 115K, 1-6 at two, 2-14 sprinting) and multiple Grade 3 winner Multiple Choice (9-74, 692K, 0-1 at two, 8-60 sprinting).  Trainer Dale Romans is 7-39 (18%, $2.83 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden claiming dirt sprints (1-4, 25%, $1.75 ROI at Saratoga).  Romans is 2-24 (8%, $1.41 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011. 

 

Selections:
1. Heather's Feather.
2. Heart of Destiny
3. Singlet

The Play:
Heather's Feather to Win at 2-1 odds or greater.

 

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*Meet record based on starts, wins, top pick (after scratches) in the money, and profit/loss of that day's play ($2 wager, scheduled surface only): 20-6-9 (-$43.80)