08/02/2011 5:41PM

Saratoga Spa Babies for August 3, Race 2

Email

Welcome to Spa Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile contest at the meet and hope for a tidy profit.

In past years, I would list the stats for each horse before writing up my analysis, selections and wagering strategy.
In order to streamline the content, this year's Spa Babies will showcase written analyses of each juvenile race.  Each analysis will include relevant statistical information.  Following the analysis, top three selections and wagering strategy will be provided.

***

Sunday's results:
Race 2: Princess Phoebe finished eighth
Race 4: Bunkers Ledge finished third

No juvenile races on Monday

***

Wednesday, August 3, 2011

Race 2
5 Furlongs
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-olds
Purse $50,000


Analysis:

HUNT CROSSING (Corinthian - Silver Lace, by Silver Deputy, February 28, 2009 in Kentucky, $260,000 Keeneland November weanling, $275,000 RNA Fasig-Tipton Select August yearling, $150,000 Fasig-Tipton Select October yearling, $285,000 RNA Fasig-Tipton February juvenile) worked a furlong in 10.2 prior to the February auction). He is by a Grade 1 route winner (6-12, 1.2M, 1-2 at two, 0-1 sprinting) that is 0-11 with juvenile debut runners from his first crop of 2011. The dam, a $37,000 weanling and $52,000 yearling, was a stakes-winner (5-19, 139K, 4-10 sprinting) and has foaled 1 winner from 2 runners (0-1 with juveniles, 0-2 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed Hallowed (2-25, 75K, 0-3 at two, 2-21 sprinting) and stakes-winner Buddha Lady (6-23, 153K, 0-2 at two, 0-5 sprinting). The July 21 workout matches trainer Todd Pletcher's 4-year-old Ibboyee (100 Beyer, entered in today's eighth race). Pletcher is 59-267 (22%, $1.59 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (18-84, 21%, $1.81 ROI at Saratoga). Pletcher is 20-74, 27%, $1.92 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

MANX (English Channel - Supreme Council, by Rahy, February 26, 2009, Out Keeneland April juvenile) is by a multiple Grade 1 turf winner (13-23, 5.3M, 1-1 at two) that is 2-15 (13%) with juvenile runners from his first crop of 2011. The dam was placed on turf (0-11, 29K) and this is her first starter. The dam is a half-sister to Grade 2 juvenile router Saarland (5-21, 591K, 2-5 at two, 0-1 sprinting). The July 27 workout matches trainer Wayne Lukas' 3-year-old Derivative (86 Beyer top). Lukas is 3-16 (19%, $4.20 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles going turf to dirt (1-3, 33%, $11.93 ROI) at Saratoga). Manx faced a runaway in his debut on turf, but finished only 3 1/2 lengths behind the runner-up, a next-out winner on grass at Indiana Downs with a 53 Beyer. The winner of Manx's debut returned to finish fourth in the Grade 2 Sanford here.

AL MUDEER (Malibu Moon - Getaway Girl, by Silver Deputy, February 8, 2009 in Kentucky, $230,000 Keeneland November weanling) is by a juvenile sprint winner (1-2, 33K, 1-2 at two, 1-2 sprinting) that is 46-277 (17%) with juvenile debut runners (8-47, 17%, $1.51 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 4 juvenile debut winners). The dam was a sprint winner (3-5, 21K, 3-5 sprinting) and has foaled 2 winners from 2 runners (0-2 with juveniles, 1-2 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to juvenile Grade 1 sprint winner City Zip (9-23, 803K, 5-11 at two, 9-16 sprinting) and multiple Grade 1 winner Ghostzapper (9-11, 3.4M, 1-2 at two, won debut, 5-7 sprinting). Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin is 28-140 (20%, $1.66 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (7-46, 15%, $0.91 ROI at Saratoga). McLaughlin is 3-18 (17%, $0.99 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

MY WAHOO (Flatter - Batidas, by Siphon, January 28, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a Grade 2-placed router (4-6, 148K, 1-2 sprinting) that is 13-125 (10%) with juvenile debut runners (4-30, 13%, $0.71 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 3 juvenile debut winners). The dam, a $17,000 yearling and $320,000 juvenile, was placed sprinting (0-7, 19K, 0-6 sprinting) and this is her first starter. The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winning juvenile Indy's Alexandra (4-18, 167K, 3-3 at two, 3-13 sprinting). The June 27 workout matches trainer Steve Margolis' 5-year-old mare Winners Get Even (finished seventh in a 'n2x' optional claimer at Churchill Downs on July 2 with 67 Beyer). The July 19 workout matches Margolis' 3-year-old Troilus (64 Beyer). Margolis is 3-37 (8%, $0.58 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints. Margolis is 1-11 (9%, $1.29 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

ONE SLICK DUDE (Corinthian - Easabeau Fille, by Capote, February 14, 2009 in Kentucky, $75,000 Fasig-Tipton Select August yearling, Out Keeneland September yearling) is by a Grade 1 route winner (6-12, 1.2M, 1-2 at two, 0-1 sprinting) that is 0-11 with juvenile debut runners from his first crop of 2011. The dam, a $155,000 weanling and $200,000 juvenile, was a turf winner (1-26, 75K, 0-3 at two, 0-4 sprinting) that has foaled 3 winners from 4 runners (2-3 with juveniles, 2-4 with sprinters). One Slick Dude is a half-brother to juvenile stakes-placed router Cherokee Wild (1-7, 15K, 1-5 at two, 1-5 sprinting). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed turfer River God (4-6, 149K, 1-1 at two), Grade 2 route winner Minister Eric (3-13, 562K, 1-5 at two, 1-5 sprinting) and stakes-placed router Pitched Perfectly (3-20, 134K, 1-3 at two, 0-1 sprinting). The June 3 workout matches trainer Bruce Levine's juvenile Rockin Boogie (finished fourth in career debut at Belmont on July 9 with 64 Beyer). Levine is 2-47 (4%, $0.67 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (0-12 at Saratoga). Levine is 1-50 (2%, $0.23 ROI) since January 1, 2010 with all debut runners.

IRON POST (Malibu Moon - Price for Freedom, by Unbridled, April 30, 2009 in Kentucky, $32,000 RNA Keeneland September yearling, $30,000 OBS Select March juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 11.0 prior to the March auction. He is by a juvenile sprint winner (1-2, 33K, 1-2 at two, 1-2 sprinting) that is 46-277 (17%) with juvenile debut runners (8-47, 17%, $1.51 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 4 juvenile debut winners). The dam, a $900,000 yearling, was unraced and has foaled 1 winner from 2 runners (1-2 with juveniles, 1 juvenile debut winner, 1-2 with sprinters). This is the female family of Grade 1 route winner Cannonade (7-25, 501K, 5-17 at two). The July 23 workout went .02 faster than trainer David Fawkes' juvenile King and Crusader (finished sixth in career debut in $50,000 maiden claimer at Saratoga on July 31 with 49 Beyer). The July 29 workout went .02 slower than Fawkes' juvenile filly Valley of Avoca (42 Beyer on dirt, 65 on grass). Fawkes is 3-51 (6%, $1.49 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (0-2 at Saratoga). Fawkes is 7-47 (14%, $1.83 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

BACKNBIZ (First Samurai - Lady Fu Peg, by Fusaichi Pegasus, March 29, 2009 in Kentucky, $45,000 RNA Keeneland September yearling, Withdrawn OBS Select March juvenile, Out Keeneland April juvenile, $50.000 Fasig-Tipton Spring May juvenile) worked 2 furlongs in 22.2 prior to the May auction. He is by a multiple Grade 1 juvenile winner (5-8, 915K, 4-5 at two, 3-4 sprinting) that is 16-112 (14%) with juveniles. The dam, a $400,000 yearling, was unplaced (0-4, $0) and has foaled 0 winners from 2 runners (0-1 with juveniles, 0-1 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to Grade 2 sprinter Golden Gear (13-26, 667K, 2-5 at two, 10-18 sprinting), multiple Grade 1 winner Keeper Hill (4-21, 1.6M, 0-3 at two, 0-1 sprinting) and Grade 3-placed Chasm (2-14, 96K, 1-6 at two, 1-7 sprinting). Trainer Rick Schosberg is 0-4 over the past five years with second-time juveniles in maiden special weight dirt sprints (0-1 at Saratoga). Backnbiz must improve off dull debut effort at 24-1 odds.

Selections:
1. Hunt Crossing
2. Manx
3. Al Mudeer

***

The Play:
Hunt Crossing - Manx Exacta
Hunt Crossing - Al Mudeer Exacta

***

*Meet record based on starts, wins, top pick (after scratches) in the money, and profit/loss of that day's play ($2 wager, scheduled surface only): 16-4-6 (-$35.70)