08/26/2011 8:38PM

Saratoga Spa Babies for August 27, Race 5

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Welcome to Spa Babies! I'll break down the statistics for  every juvenile contest at the meet and hope for a tidy profit.  In past years, I would list the stats for each horse before writing up my analysis, selections and wagering strategy.  In order to streamline the content, this year's Spa Babies will showcase written analyses of each juvenile race.  Each analysis will include relevant statistical information.  Following the analysis, top three selections and wagering strategy will be provided.

 

Race 5
6 Furlongs
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-old fillies
Purse $60,000

 

Analysis:

6. TROPHY WIFE (Giant's Causeway - Pleasant Home, by Seeking the Gold, March 12, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a multiple Group 1 turf winner (9-13, 3.0M, 3-3 at two) that is 18-196 (9%) with juvenile debut runners (8-43, 19%, $2.98 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 3 juvenile debut winners, 1 at this meet). The Giant's Causeway - Seeking the Gold breeding 'nick' has produced Grade 1 route winner Swift Temper (6-31, 1.2M, 1-6 at two, 0-4 sprinting), Grade 1 route winner Carriage Trail (6-16, 746K, 1-1 at two, 2-4 sprinting) and Grade 1 turf winner Internallyflawless (2-12, 275K, 1-4 at two, 0-1 sprinting).  The dam was a Grade 1 route winner (5-12, 1.3M, 1-4 sprinting) and this is her first starter.  The dam is a full sister to multiple Grade 2 winner Country Hideaway (10-21, 762K, 9-14 sprinting). The June 10, June 18, June 29, July 6, July 13 workouts match trainer Shug McGaughey's juvenile filly Coasting (finished eighth in career debut on turf on August 14 with 52 Beyer).  The July 6 workout went .01 faster than McGaughey's 5-year-old Conservative (93 Beyer on synthetic, 88 on turf, 84 on dirt). McGaughey is 0-45 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (0-16 at Saratoga).  McGaughey is 1-15 (6%, $2.79 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

8. BLACK AND WHITE (Roman Ruler - Her Temptation, by High Yield, January 7, 2009 in Florida, $70,000 Keeneland September yearling, Withdrawn OBS Select March juvenile) is by a Grade 1 route winner (5-10, 1.2M, 3-5 at two, won debut, 2-3 sprinting) that is 8-90 (9%) with juvenile debut runners (3-36, 8%, $0.84 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 juvenile debut winner).  The dam, a $115,000 weanling, was a sprint winner (1-7, 10K, 0-3 at two, 1-6 sprinting) and has foaled 1 winner from 1 runner (1-1 with 2yos, 1-1 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winner Jolie the Cat (3-7, 133K, 1-3 at two, 2-4 sprinting).  The August 11, August 18 workouts match trainer Gary Contessa's 3-year-old Molly's Ship (71 Beyer).  Contessa is 9-105 (9%, $1.74 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (1-32, 3%, $1.10 ROI at Saratoga).  Contessa is 3-26 (11%, $1.65 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

10. MI VIDA (Distorted Humor - Crystal Current, by A.P. Indy, February 5, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a multiple Grade 2 sprint winner (8-23, 769K, 7-13 sprinting) that is 151-865 (17%) with juveniles.  The Distorted Humor - A.P. Indy breeding 'nick' has produced Grade 3 route winner Brethren (3-5, 224K, 2-2 at two, 1-1 sprinting), Grade 3 juvenile route winner Z Humor (6-34, 970K, 2-5 at two, 1-5 sprinting), and Grade 1 route winner Any Given Saturday (6-11, 1.0M, 2-3 at two, 1-1 sprinting).  The dam was a stakes-winning router (2-14, 109K, 1-4 at two, 0-3 sprinting) and this is her first starter.  The dam is a full sister to juvenile Grade 1 sprint winner Majestic Warrior (2-7, 239K, 2-3 at two, 2-4 sprinting) and is a half-sister to stakes-winning turfer Evolutionist (3-14, 133K, 0-3 at two, 0-2 sprinting). Trainer Eric Guillot is 0-7 over the past five years with juveniles adding blinkers.  Eligible to show more early speed with the addition of blinkers.

4. STELLABYMOONLIGHT (Malibu Moon - Five Star Dream, by Two Punch, March 3, 2009 in Pennsylvania, $225,000 Fasig-Tipton Summer July yearling) is by a juvenile sprint winner (1-2, 33K, 1-2 at two, 1-2 sprinting) that is 160-822 (19%) with juveniles. The dam was a stakes-winning sprinter (3-11, 128K, 0-4 at two, 3-11 sprinting) and has foaled 1 winner from 2 runners (0-2 with 2yos, 1-2 with sprinters). The second dam is stakes-winning sprinter Time to Dream (3-13, 112K, 3-11 sprinting). Trainer Dale Romans is 7-50 (14%, $1.85 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles in maiden special weight dirt sprints (1-6, 14%, $1.41 ROI at Saratoga). Chased next-out Schuylerville winner Georgie's Angel (76 Beyer) in career debut at Churchill after breaking slowly from the gate.

7. MISS NETTA (Street Sense - Dyna Peak, by Dynaformer, February 20, 2009 in Kentucky, $260,000 Fasig-Tipton Select August yearling) is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (6-13, 4.3M, 2-5 at two, 1-2 sprinting) that is 1-11 (9%, $3.09 ROI) with juvenile debut runners from his first crop of 2011. The dam was unplaced (0-2, $0, 0-2 sprinting) and has foaled 6 winners from 6 runners (0-1 with 2yos, 3-5 with sprinters).  Miss Netta is a half-sister to Grade 3 turf winner Dyna Da Wyna (8-19, 365K, 0-2 at two, 0-1 sprinting), Grade 2-placed sprinter New Joysey Jeff (1-8, 85K, 0-1 sprinting) and Grade 3 turf winner Leroy's Dynameaux (3-13, 185K).  The second dam is stakes-winner Quatre Saisons (9-41, 130K, 1-5 at two). The July 5 workout matches trainer Kiaran McLaughlin's juvenile Burned Bridges (finished seventh in career debut on August 13 with 59 Beyer).  The July 24 workout went .01 slower than McLaughlin's 5-year-old Alyarf (finished ninth in $60,000 claimer on turf on July 30 with 55 Beyer, has 68 Beyer on dirt). Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin is 27-139 (19%, $1.64 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (6-45, 13%, $0.82 ROI at Saratoga).  McLaughlin is 3-27 (11%, $0.66 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

5. WEE PARTY (Indian Charlie - Hen Party, by Hennessy, March 30, 2009 in Kentucky, $330,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a Grade 1 route winner (4-5, 616K, 1-1 at two, 2-2 sprinting) that is 38-243 (16%) with juvenile debut runners (3-37, 8%, $1.08 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 2 juvenile debut winners).  The dam was a sprint winner (1-8, 13K, 1-7 sprinting) and has foaled 3 winners from 3 runners (1-3 with 2yos, 3-3 with sprinters).  Wee Party is a half-sister to stakes-winning sprinter Vanderkaay (4-19, 100K, 1-3 at two, 4-16 sprinting). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed Dehere of the Dog (3-21, 63K, 0-1 at two, 3-14 sprinting) and Grade 3 turfer Ballymore Lady (7-20, 323K, 0-1 sprinting).  The dam is a full sister to juvenile Grade 3 sprint winner Sunray Spirit (4-14, 201K, 2-5 at two, 4-13 sprinting). The August 18 workout matches trainer Bill Mott's Deluxe (111 Racing Post Rating on turf in Europe). The August 24 workout matches Mott's juvenile Court Royal (entered in today's third race).  Mott is 9-112 (8%, $0.96 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (4-52, 8%, $0.59 ROI at Saratoga).  Mott is 3-42 (7%, $1.22 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

9. MANDA BAY (Empire Maker - Summer Wind Dancer, by Siberian Summer, February 1, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (4-8, 1.9M, 1-2 at two, won debut) that is 9-96 (9%) with juvenile debut runners (2-24, 8%, $0.67 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 juvenile debut winner).  The dam was a Grade 2 route winner (5-18, 898K, 3-5 at two, won debut, 2-6 sprinting) and has foaled 2 winners from 3 runners (0-1 with 2yos, 1-3 with sprinters).  Manda Bay is a full sister to stakes-placed router Bahama Bound (3-11, 107K, 0-1 sprinting). This is the family of stakes-winning turfer Lock's Dream (3-17, 94K). The July 24 workout matches trainer Barclay Tagg's 3-year-old filly Song for Siena (finished fourth in career debut on turf on August 19 with 58 Beyer).  The July 31 workout matches Tagg's 4-year-old filly Senada (finished second in the Waya Stakes on turf on August 10 with 88 Beyer).  Tagg is 7-53 (13%, $1.27 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (4-12, 33%, $3.09 ROI at Saratoga). Tagg is 2-21 (9%, $1.43 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

2. TRY TO CATCH HER (Broken Vow - See How She Runs, by Maria's Mon, March 10, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a Grade 2 route winner (9-14, 725K, 1-2 sprinting) that is 24-244 (10%) with juvenile debut runners (5-35, 14%, $1.54 ROI with all debut runners in 2011). The dam was a Grade 1 winner (8-19, 586K, 4-8 sprinting) and has foaled 2 winners from 2 runners (0-0 with 2yos, 2-2 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to Grade 3 turf winner Hasten to Add (4-20, 513K). Trainer Donnie Von Hemel is 8-52 (15%, $2.51 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints.  Von Hemel is 0-20 with all debut runners in 2011.

1. BONNIE PARKER (Aptitude - Zelna J, by Roy, January 31, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (5-15, 1.9M, 0-2 at two) that is 6-168 (4%) with juvenile debut runners. The dam was a sprint winner (8-52, 168K, 1-3 at two, 8-46 sprinting) and this is her first starter. The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winning sprinter Bella Diamante (3-15, 237K, 1-3 at two, won debut, 3-8 sprinting). Trainer Eric Guillot is 0-12 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (0-1 at Saratoga).  Guillot is 2-16 (13%, $1.01 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

3. YELLOW BOAT (Lemon Drop Kid - Wye River, by Pleasant Colony, April 1, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a multiple Grade 1 winner (10-24, 3.2M, 2-6 at two, 1-3 sprinting) that is 16-171 (9%) with juvenile debut runners (4-45, 9%, $1.21 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 2 juvenile debut winners, 1 at this meet).  The dam was a route winner (4-17, 102K, 0-1 sprinting) and has foaled 1 winner from 1 runner (0-1 with 2yos, 0-0 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to juvenile French Group 3 turf winner Comillas.  The July 14, July 28, August 4 workouts match trainer Seth Benzel's juvenile Win All (finished seventh in career debut on August 10 with 12 Beyer). Benzel is 0-28 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (0-12 at Saratoga).  Benzel is 3-99 (3%, $0.85 ROI) with all debut runners since January 1, 2006.

 

Selections:
1. Trophy Wife
2. Black and White
3. Mi Vida

The Play:
Trophy Wife to Win and place at 5-1 odds or greater

***

*Meet record based on starts, wins, top pick (after scratches) in the money, and profit/loss of that day's play ($2 wager, scheduled surface only): 57-12-27 (-$17.50)