08/26/2011 8:33PM

Saratoga Spa Babies for August 27, Race 3

Email

Welcome to Spa Babies! I'll break down the statistics for  every juvenile contest at the meet and hope for a tidy profit.  In past years, I would list the stats for each horse before writing up my analysis, selections and wagering strategy.  In order to streamline the content, this year's Spa Babies will showcase written analyses of each juvenile race.  Each analysis will include relevant statistical information.  Following the analysis, top three selections and wagering strategy will be provided.

 

Race 3
1 1/16 Miles (Turf)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-olds
Purse $61,000

 

Analysis:

12. DADDY NOSE BEST  (Scat Daddy - Follow Your Bliss, by Thunder Gulch, March 3, 2009 in Kentucky, $34,000 RNA Keeneland November weanling, $35,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (5-9, 1.3M, 3-5 at two) that is 8-59 (14%) with juveniles and 4-11 (36%) with turf runners from his first crop of 2011.  The dam was placed on turf (0-12, 22K, 0-11 on turf) and has foaled 1 winner from 2 runners (0-2 with 2yos, 0-2 with turfers).  The second dam is Grade 2 winner Follow the Money (6-14, 339K, 5-11 on turf).  Trainer Steve Asmussen is 5-35 (14%, $2.65 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles in maiden special weight turf routes (1-5, 20%, $4.00 ROI at Saratoga). Finished willingly after racing in a bit tight on the far turn of turf debut.

8. CHALYBEATE SPRINGS (Dynaformer - Chaposa Springs, by Baldski, April 1, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a multiple Grade 2 winner (7-30, 671K, 1-5 at two, 2-7 on turf) that is 138-1170 (12%) with juveniles and 102-726 (14%) with first-turfers. The dam, a $75,000 juvenile, was a multiple Grade 1 sprint winner (14-23, 762K, 3-6 at two, 1-2 on turf, first-turf winner) and has foaled 2 winners from 6 runners (1-4 with juveniles, 2-3 with turfers). The dam is a half-sister to Grade 1 router You and I (6-16, 701K, 2-2 at two, 0-2 on turf) and stakes-placed turfer Point Gold (3-30, 90K, 1-2 at two, 1-14 on turf).  The August 5 workout matches trainer D. Wayne Lukas' juvenile filly Tura Isabel (finished second in $20,000 maiden claimer on dirt at Delaware on August 23 with 24 Beyer). The August 13 workout matches Lukas' 4-year-old Northern Giant (finished fifth in 'n3x' optional claimer on dirt on August 26, 83 Beyer on turf, 89 on synthetic). The August 21 workout matches Lukas' juvenile Optimizer (71 Beyer on turf).  Lukas is 1-2 (50%, $12.60 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles returning from 31-60 day layoffs and going dirt to turf and sprint to route in maiden special weight (0-1 at Saratoga). Tried to rally over speed-favoring surface against promising gate-to-wire winner.  May show speed stretching out in distance.

6. COACH ROYAL (Lemon Drop Kid - Pagosa Springs, by A.P. Indy, April 1, 2009 in Kentucky, Withdrawn Keeneland September yearling, Withdrawn Keeneland April Juvenile) is by a multiple Grade 1 winner (10-24, 3.2M, 2-6 at two) that is 61-498 (12%) with juveniles and 227-1630 (14%) with turfers.  The Lemon Drop Kid - A.P. Indy breeding 'nick' has produced Peruvian stakes-winning router Spicer Boy (10-35, 67K, 3-7 on turf).  The dam, a $275,000 yearling, was placed routing (0-6, 19K) and has foaled 1 winner from 3 runners (1-3 with juveniles, 0-2 with turfers).  The dam is a half-sister to juvenile stakes-placed sprinter Cahill's Touch (3-12, 74K, 2-3 at two, 0-2 on turf). Trainer Bill Mott is 18-154 (12%, $1.30 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles in maiden special weight turf routes (5-40, 13%, $1.15 ROI at Saratoga). Made late bid in turf debut and should move forward with that effort under his girth. 

9. SEVE (Giant's Causeway - Our Dani, by Homebuilder, January 23, 2011 in Kentucky, $140,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Group 1 turf winner (9-13, 3.0M, 3-3 at two, 9-12 on turf) that is 60-443 (14%) with juveniles and 315-2058 (15%) with turfers.  The dam, a $6,500 weanling, was a sprint winner (2-20, 11K, 0-1 at two, 0-1 on turf) and has foaled 3 winners from 7 runners (2-5 with juveniles, 0-4 with turfers).  Seve is a half-brother to multiple Grade 1 winner You (9-23, 2.1M, 3-6 at two).  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed Tammany Doll (1-21, 40K, 0-5 at two, 0-2 on turf).  Trainer Dale Romans is 8-44 (18%, $1.79 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles in maiden special weight turf routes (0-11 at Saratoga). Finished behind Coach Royal after wide trip on August 6. 

7. SCHOOL SPIRIT (Pulpit - Just a Ginny, by Go for Gin, May 5, 2009 in Kentucky, $300,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Grade 2 route winner (4-6, 728K) that is 38-301 (13%) with juvenile debut runners (4-30, 13%, $0.92 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 older winner on turf) and 37-347 (11%) with first-turfers. The dam, a $23,000 yearling, was a winner (3-15, 98K, 1-9 on turf) and has foaled 3 winners from 4 runners (1-3 with 2yos, debut winner, 1-2 with turfers).  School Spirit is a half-brother to stakes-winning turfer Logic Way (11-43, 611K, 0-4 at two, 11-35 on turf), Grade 3 route winner Big Truck (3-15, 370K, 2-4 at two, won debut, 0-3 on turf) and Puerto Rican stakes-winner Be a Ginny (3-9, 53K). The dam is a half-sister to juvenile Grade 2-placed router Goodbye Doeny (2-15, 90K, 2-7 at two, won debut, 0-1 on turf). The July 19 workout matches trainer Chad Brown's juvenile filly Book Review (finished second in career debut on dirt on August 14 with 76 Beyer).  Brown is 4-22 (18%, $2.27 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf routes (3-11, 27%, $3.61 ROI at Saratoga). Brown is 4-33 (12%, $1.68 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

2. POLITICALLYCORRECT (Kitten's Joy - Exceedexpectations, by Tale of the Cat, May 14, 2009 in Kentucky, Withdrawn Fasig-Tipton Spring May juvenile) is by a multiple Grade 1 turf winner (9-14, 2.0M, 2-4 at two, 9-12 on turf, first-turf winner) that is 19-107 (18%) with juvenile debut runners (5-49, 10%, $1.87 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 juvenile debut winner, 1 older winner on turf) and 20-128 (16%) with first-turfers. The dam was a sprint winner (2-13, 68K) and this is her first starter. This is the female family of Grade 2 juvenile winner Big Sur (4-25, 323K, 2-8 at two). Trainer Wesley Ward is 1-4 (25%, $1.570 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf routes (0-2 at Saratoga). Ward is 14-44 (31%, $1.78 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

1. AFFIRMED WARRIOR (A.P. Warrior - Afirmada, by Affirmed, January 29, 2009 in California, $30,000 Barretts January short yearling, Withdrawn OBS Open June juvenile) is by a multiple Grade 2 winner (4-13, 548K, 2-5 at two, 1-2 on turf, first-turf winner) that is 6-56 (11%) with juveniles and 1-8 (13%) with first-turfers. The dam was placed (0-10, 17K, 0-6 at two, 0-1 on turf) and has foaled 3 winners from 5 runners (1-3 with 2yos, 0-2 with turfers). The second dam is multiple stakes-winner Some for All (7-21, 192K, 1-2 at two, 0-2 on turf). Trainer Ken McPeek is 2-11 (18%, $2.29 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles going dirt to turf and sprint to route in maiden special weight (0-5 at Saratoga). Outrun in sprint earlier in the meet, but should appreciate today's extra distance.

3. MASTER ACHIEVEMENT (Master Command - Mysteryachievement, by Regal Classic, March 11, 2009 in Kentucky, $15,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Grade 2 route winner (8-17, 1.1M) that is 3-30 (10%) with juveniles and 1-6 (17%) with turfers from his first crop of 2011.  The dam, a $24,475 yearling, was a multiple stakes-placed sprinter (1-7, 85K, 1-1 at two) and has foaled 3 winners from 4 runners (2-3 with juveniles, 1-3 with turfers). Master Achievement is a half-brother to juvenile stakes-winning sprinter The Thought Occurs (1-4, 43K, 1-4 at two).  The second dam is juvenile stakes-placed sprinter Domascarama (3-21, 77K, 0-2 at two).  Trainer David Fawkes is 0-23 over the past five years with juveniles in maiden special weight turf routes (0-3 at Saratoga). Pressed pace in turf debut only to falter late.  Figures up close to the pace once again this afternoon.

3. SPEIGHTSCITY (Speightstown - My American Girl, by Quiet American, April 22, 2009 in Kentucky, $65,000 Keeneland September yearling, Withdrawn Fasig-Tipton February juvenile, Withdrawn OBS Select March juvenile, $49,000 RNA Fasig-Tipton Spring May juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.3 prior to the May auction.  He is by a Grade 1 sprint winner (10-16, 1.2M, 0-1 at two) that is 59-331 (18%) with juveniles and 61-356 (17%) with turfers  The dam, a $21,000 yearling, was multiple stakes-placed (2-16, 42K, 1-12 at two) and has foaled 3 winners from 4 runners (1-3 with juveniles, 1-3 with turfers).  Speightscity is a half-brother to stakes-winning juvenile My Royal Girl (7-31, 63K, 2-5 at two, 1-6 on turf). The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Lucinda (5-19, 109K, 2-4 at two, 0-2 on turf) and stakes-placed sprinter Smokin Bee (1-9, 31K, 0-3 at two, 0-1 on turf). Trainer Gary Contessa is 1-17 (6%, $0.33 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles in maiden special weight turf routes (1-5, 20%, $1.14 ROI at Saratoga). Disappointed in career debut for $75,000 tag on August 11 and is stuck on the also eligible list.

11. TIGER WALK (Tale of the Cat - Majestic Trail, by Kris S., April 20, 2009 in Kentucky, Out Keeneland November weanling, Withdrawn Fasig-Tipton Summer July yearling, Out Keeneland September yearling, Withdrawn Fasig-Tipton October yearling) is by a Grade 2 sprint winner (5-9, 360K, 1-1 on turf) that is 215-1142 (19%) with juveniles and 177-1536 (12%) with turfers. The dam was unraced and this is her first starter. The dam is a half-sister to Grade 2 juvenile route winner Supremo (2-7, 228K, 2-6 at two, 0-1 on turf) and multiple stakes-winner (Germany) Personal Love.  Trainer Ignacio Correas is 2-11 (18%, $3.36 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles on turf (0-1 at Saratoga). Raced greenly in debut, but may be more forwardly-placed this time around.

5. STATE FLAG (Street Cry - Salute, by Unbridled, May 4, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a multiple Grade/Group 1 route winner (5-12, 5.1M, 1-5 at two) that is 11-100 (11%) with juvenile debut runners (2-15, 13%, $1.33 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 juvenile debut winner at this meet). and 16-127 (13%) with first-turfers. The dam was Grade 2-placed at two (1-10, 103K, 1-4 at two) and this is her first starter. The dam is a half-sister to Grade 1 route winner Miner's Mark (6-18, 967K, 1-2 at two), multiple Grade 1-placed Our Emblem (5-27, 366K, 1-3 at two), multiple Grade 1 route winner My Flag (6-20, 1.5M, 2-6 at two, won debut, Grade 3-placed router Proud and True (3-9, 96K, 1-5 at two) and Grade 1 route winner Traditionally (5-20, 495K, 2-5 at two, 0-4 on turf). The May 28, June 3 workouts match trainer Shug McGaughey's juvenile Covert Ops (finished fourth in career debut on dirt on July 23 with 50 Beyer). The June 20 workout went .02 slower than McGaughey's juvenile But You Promised (finished eighth in career debut on turf on August 13 with 56 Beyer).  The July 10, July 16, July 29 workouts match But You Promised.  The August 18 workout matches McGaughey's juvenile Trade (73 Beyer on dirt). McGaughey is 1-14 (7%, $1.32 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf routes (0-8 at Saratoga).  McGaughey is 1-15 (6%, $2.79 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

14. VENTURA BAR (Officer - Ventura Hotel, by Grand Slam, January 24, 2009 in Kentucky, $8,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a juvenile Grade 1 route winner (6-9, 804K, 5-8 at two) that is 100-548 (18%) with juveniles and 45-422 (11%) with turfers. The dam was a sprint winner (1-6, 4K) and has foaled 2 winners from 3 runners (1-2 with juveniles, 0-2 with turfers). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winner Playinaround (13-33, 241K, 9-25 on turf) and multiple stakes-winning juvenile Playing 'n Gold (3-9, 150K, 3-9 at two). Trainer Ken McPeek is 2-2 (100%, $12.60 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles going dirt to turf and sprint to route following 31-60 day layoff in maiden special weight.  In steep last time sprinting against J C's Pride, but should appreciate getting back to grass.

10. ANONYMOUS DONOR (Scat Daddy - Thai Lilac, by Tale of the Cat, April 15, 2009 in Kentucky, $50,000 Keeneland November weanling) is by a multiple Grade 1 winner (5-9, 1.3M, 3-5 at two) that is 8-59 (14%) with juveniles and 2-9 (22%) with first-turf runners from his first crop of 2011. The dam, a $145,000 weanling and $300,000 yearling, was unraced and has foaled 1 winner from 3 runners (1-2 with juveniles, 0-1 with turfers). The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed Nicki (4-42, 81K, 1-3 at two, 0-1 on turf), stakes-placed Short Man (11-69, 131K, 1-2 at two, 0-1 on turf) and stakes-winner Nice of You (6-13, 145K). Trainer Todd Pletcher is 2-15 (13%, $1.08 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles going dirt to turf and sprint to route in maiden special weight (0-3 at Saratoga). Chased runaway gate-to-wire winner over speed favoring, muddy track in debut.

4. SHKSPEARE SHALIYAH (Shakespeare - Tricky Mistress, by Clever Trick, April 21, 2009 in Florida, Out OBS Winter January short yearling, $21,000 OBS Open June juvenile) worked 2 furlongs in 22.4 prior to the June auction.  He is by a multiple Grade 1 turf winner (7-8, 1.2M, 7-8 on turf, first-turf winner) that is 1-3 (33%, $1.77 ROI) with juvenile debut runners (debut winner on turf) and 1-3 (33%) with his first-turf runners from his first crop of 2011. The dam was unplaced (0-7, $0, 0-3 at two, 0-3 on turf) and has foaled 3 winners from 3 runners (1-1 with 2yos, debut winner, 1-2 with turfers).  Shkspeare Shaliyah is a half-brother to multiple stakes-placed Zip Trick (3-17, 118K, 2-10 on turf) and juvenile stakes-placed Master Tricky (4-53, 72K, 1-8 at two, won debut, 0-13 on turf). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed Chief Meadowlake (8-48, 203K, 0-5 at two, 0-1 on turf), juvenile Grade 3-placed sprinter Cecilia's Crown (4-40, 169K, 1-5 at two, 0-6 on turf), multiple stakes-placed Barney's Mistress (3-38, 200K, 0-5 at two, 0-2 on turf) and stakes-placed router Daisy Mountain (3-43, 92K, 1-6 at two, 0-11 on turf). The July 16 workout went .01 faster than trainer Doodnauth Shivmangal's juvenile Harry Consolidator (finished seventh in career debut on dirt on July 23 with 0 Beyer).  Shivmangal is 0-3 over the past five years with juveniles on turf.  Shivmangal is 0-13 with all debut runners since January 1, 2010.

 

Selections:
1. Daddy Nose Best
2. Chalybeate Springs
3. Coach Royal

The Play:
Daddy Nose Best to Win at 7-2 odds or greater