08/26/2011 8:15PM

Saratoga Spa Babies for August 27, Race 2

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Welcome to Spa Babies! I'll break down the statistics for  every juvenile contest at the meet and hope for a tidy profit.  In past years, I would list the stats for each horse before writing up my analysis, selections and wagering strategy.  In order to streamline the content, this year's Spa Babies will showcase written analyses of each juvenile race.  Each analysis will include relevant statistical information.  Following the analysis, top three selections and wagering strategy will be provided. 

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Thursday's results:
Race 3:  Holiday Broad finished second

No baby races Friday

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Race 2
6 Furlongs
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-olds
Purse $60,000

 

Analysis:

1a. NEVER ON TIME (Any Given Saturday - Past Due, by Devil His Due, February 16, 2009 in Kentucky, $55,000 RNA Keeneland November weanling, $225,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a Grade 1 route winner (6-11, 1.0M, 2-3 at two, won debut, 1-1 sprinting) that is 1-9 (11%, $2.16 ROI) with juvenile debut runners from his first crop of 2011.  The dam was placed sprinting at two (0-5, 11K, 0-3 at two, 0-5 sprinting) and has foaled 1 winner from 1 runner (0-0 with 2yos, 1-1 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to Grade 2 sprint winner Sharp Humor (4-10, 490K, 3-5 at two, won debut, 3-6 sprinting). The July 7, July 27, August 9 workouts match entrymate Our Entourage.  The August 2 workout went .02 faster than trainer Todd Pletcher's juvenile Bay Park Boy (finished first in career debut on August 8 with 88 Beyer).  The August 21 workout went .01 slower than Our Entourage.  Pletcher is 61-267 (23%, $1.62 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (20-84, 24%, $1.90 ROI at Saratoga). Pletcher is 24-94 (25%, $1.75 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

1. OUR ENTOURAGE (Street Cry - Sand Springs, by Dynaformer, May 22, 2009 in Kentucky, $350,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Grade/Group 1 route winner (5-12, 5.1M, 1-5 at two, 1-3 sprinting) that is 11-100 (11%) with juvenile debut runners (2-15, 13%, $1.33 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 juvenile debut winner at this meet).  The dam was a Grade 1 turf winner (9-27, 1.2M, 1-5 at two, won debut) and has foaled 2 winners from 2 runners (0-0 with 2yos, 0-0 with sprinters).  Our Entourage is a half-brother to French stakes-winning turfer Mellon Martini (2-6, 78K). This is the family of Grade 2 route winner Navajo Princess (16-35, 349K). The July 7, July 27, August 9 workouts match entrymate Never On Time.  The July 14 workout matches trainer Todd Pletcher's juvenile Hunt Crossing (finished first in career debut on August 3 with 87 Beyer).  The August 21 workout went .01 faster than Never On Time. Pletcher is 61-267 (23%, $1.62 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (20-84, 24%, $1.90 ROI at Saratoga). Pletcher is 24-94 (25%, $1.75 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

3. FIRE ON ICE (Unbridled's Song - Lost in the Storm, by Storm Cat, March 5, 2009 in Kentucky, $160,000 Fasig-Tipton Summer July yearling, Out Keeneland September yearling, Withdrawn Fasig-Tipton February juvenile, $170,000 RNA Keeneland April juvenile) worked 2 furlongs in 21.3 prior to the April auction.  He is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (5-12, 1.3M, 2-3 at two, won debut, 2-4 sprinting) that is 36-285 (13%) with juvenile debut runners (6-33, 18%, $1.11 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 2 juvenile debut winners, 2 debut winners out of Storm Cat mares).  The Unbridled's Song - Storm Cat breeding 'nick' has produced Grade 1 route winner Buddha (3-4, 489K, 0-1 at two, 1-2 sprinting), Grade 1 turf winner Magnificent Song (5-13, 445K, 1-3 at two) and Grade 2 sprint winner Half Ours (5-7, 319K, 2-2 at two, 4-4 sprinting). The dam, a $275,000 weanling and $525,000 yearling, was unraced and has foaled 0 winners from 1 runner (0-0 with 2yos, 0-1 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to multiple Grade 1 sprint winner Squirtle Squirt (8-16, 1.1M, 5-8 at two, 8-16 sprinting). The July 31 workout matches trainer John Kimmel's juvenile Vexor (finished first in maiden special weight on August 10 with 80 Beyer).  Kimmel is 7-54 (13%, $2.01 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (3-21, 14%, $2.91 ROI at Saratoga). Kimmel is 0-9 with all debut runners in 2011.

6. GOLD MEGILLAH (Purim - Touch Me Once, by Touch Gold, February 25, 2009 in Kentucky, $21,000 RNA Keeneland September yearling, $50,000 Fasig-Tipton February juvenile, Out Keeneland April juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.4 prior to the February auction.  He is by a Grade 1 turf winner (9-23, 928K, 1-2 sprinting) that is 0-10 with juvenile debut runners from his first crop of 2011.  The dam was a sprint winner (2-10, 71K, 2-7 sprinting) and this is her first starter. The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed turfer Mesawmi (8-33, 216K). The July 21, July 29, August 4 workouts match trainer Graham Motion's juvenile Van Tassel (finished seventh in career debut on turf on August 20 with 32 Beyer).  The August 19 workout went .02 faster than Van Tassel.  Motion is 8-84 (10%, $1.73 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (0-2 at Saratoga). Motion is 3-30 (10%, $1.51 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

7. COVERT OPS (Smoke Glacken - Collusion, by Broad Brush, April 30, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a juvenile Grade 1 sprint winner (10-14, 759K, 4-6 at two, 9-10 sprinting) that is 207-1152 (18%) with juveniles. The Smoke Glacken - Broad Brush "nick" has produced multiple stakes-winning sprinter Gazillion (8-19, 304K, 8-17 sprinting). The dam was placed routing in the slop at two (0-3, 6K, 0-2 at two, 0-1 sprinting) and this is her first starter. The dam is a half-sister to multiple Grade 1 route winner Smuggler (5-9, 654K, 2-3 at two, 1-2 sprinting).  Trainer Shug McGaughey is 4-17 (24%, $1.75 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles in maiden special weight dirt sprints (3-8, 38%, $3.36 ROI at Saratoga). Raced greenly in debut, but barn has better numbers second-out than with firsters.

2. AWAITED (Unbridled's Song - Secret Status, by A.P. Indy, February 2, 2009 in Kentucky, $150,000 Keeneland September yearling, $450,000 RNA Fasig-Tipton February juvenile, Withdrawn Fasig-Tipton Spring May juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.3 prior to the February auction.  He is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (5-12, 1.3M, 2-3 at two, won debut, 2-4 sprinting) that is 36-285 (13%) with juvenile debut runners (6-33, 18%, $1.11 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 2 juvenile debut winners). The Unbridled's Song - A.P. Indy breeding 'nick' has produced multiple stakes-winning router Ravi's Song (6-15, 329K, 1-3 sprinting. The dam was a multiple Grade 1 route winner (8-19, 1.0M, 1-4 at two, 1-3 sprinting) and has foaled 2 winners from 4 runners (0-2 with 2yos, 1-3 with sprinters).  Awaited is a full brother to multiple Grade 1-placed router Dunkirk (2-5, 393K, 1-1 sprinting). The dam is a full sister to multiple Grade 3 winner Alumni Hall (9-29, 747K, 1-1 sprinting).  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winner Private Gift (5-19, 212K, 0-3 at two, 1-5 sprinting) and stakes-placed router State Treasure (3-16, 111K, 0-5 at two, 1-3 sprinting). Trainer James Chapman is 0-1 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints.  Chapman is 0-6 with all debut runners since January 1, 2007.

5. PENN'S GRANT (Empire Maker - Mystery Itself, by Pulpit, February 27, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (4-8. 1.9M, 1-2 at two, won debut) that is 9-96 (9%) with juvenile debut runners (2-24, 8%, $0.67 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 juvenile debut winner).  The dam was a stakes-winner on turf (4-18, 165K, 1-1 at two) and has foaled 1 winner from 1 runner (0-1 with 2yos, 0-0 with sprinters).  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed turfer Sly One (3-14, 78K, 0-1 sprinting). The July 22 workout went .02 faster than trainer Barclay Tagg's 3-year-old filly Casa Tua (finished third in $50,000 maiden claimer on turf on July 29 with 68 Beyer).  Tagg is 7-53 (13%, $1.27 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (4-12, 33%, $3.09 ROI at Saratoga). Tagg is 2-21 (9%, $1.43 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

8. CASUAL TRICK (Bernardini - Casual Look, by Red Ransom, May 25, 2009 in Kentucky, $425,000 Keeneland September yearling, $775,000 RNA Fasig-Tipton February juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.4 prior to the February auction.  He is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (6-8, 3.0M, 0-1 sprinting) that is 8-50 (16%) with juvenile debut runners (7-46, 15%, $1.48 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 4 juvenile debut winners). The dam was a Group 1 turf winner in England (2-12, 607K, 1-5 at two) and has foaled 2 winners from 3 runners (1-2 with 2yos, 0-1 with sprinters). The dam is a full sister to French stakes-winning turfer Shabby Chic (2-7, 113K).  The dam is a half-sister to Grade 2-placed router American Style (5-37, 282K, 1-3 at two, 1-8 sprinting) and French juvenile stakes-placed turfer Saville Row (2-12, 44K, 2-4 at two, won debut). The July 10 workout matches trainer Nick Zito's juvenile A Cat That Flies (finished eighth in career debut on July 30 with 37 Beyer).  The July 17, August 8 workouts match Zito's juvenile First Corinthian (finished ninth in career debut on August 13 with 18 Beyer). Zito is 11-122 (9%, $1.56 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (4-58, 7%, $0.85 ROI at Saratoga).  Zito is 1-35 (3%, $0.43 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011

4. DUSTIN' THE REST (High Cotton - Dusty Sparkle, by Dusty Screen, January 29, 2009 in Pennsylvania, $2,000 RNA OBS Winter January short yearling, $1,700 Fasig-Tipton Select October yearling) is by a Grade 3 winner (4-17, 462K, 1-5 at two, 1-3 sprinting) that is 6-32 (19%) with juveniles from his first crop of 2011.  The dam was a winner (2-23, 54K, 0-3 at two, 0-8 sprinting) and has foaled 2 winners from 3 runners (2-3 with 2yos, 2-3 with sprinters). This is the family of Grade 3 route winner Sir Pinder (3-17, 134K, 2-7 at two, 0-2 sprinting). Trainer Ernest Smith is 1-8 (13%, $0.89 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles in maiden special weight dirt sprints (0-1 at Saratoga). Hard to endorse off two races at Suffolk Downs

 

Selections:
1. Never On Time
2. Our Entourage
3. Fire On Ice

The Play:
Pletcher entry - Fire On Ice Exacta
Pletcher entry - Gold Megillah Exacta