08/19/2011 7:44PM

Saratoga Spa Babies for August 20, Race 8

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Welcome to Spa Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile contest at the meet and hope for a tidy profit.

In past years, I would list the stats for each horse before writing up my analysis, selections and wagering strategy. In order to streamline the content, this year's Spa Babies will showcase written analyses of each juvenile race. Each analysis will include relevant statistical information. Following the analysis, top three selections and wagering strategy will be provided.

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Saturday, August 20, 2011

Race 8
1 1/16 Miles (Turf)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-olds
Purse $50,000

Analysis:

1. ANIMAL SPIRITS (Arch - Pennant Champion, by Mr. Prospector, April 20, 2009 in Kentucky, $95,000 RNA Fasig-Tipton Fall November weanling, $50,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a Grade 1 route winner (5-7, 480K, 1-1 at two) that is 14-149 (9%) with juvenile debut runners (3-22, 14%, $2.47 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 2 older winners on turf) and 26-235 (11%) with first-turfers. The Arch - Mr. Prospector breeding 'nick' has produced turf stakes-winner Irish Osprey (3-18, 115K, 3-18 on turf). The dam was a winner (2-7, 48K) and has foaled 7 winners from 7 runners (0-1 with 2yos, 1-3 with turfers, first-turf winner). The dam is a full sister to Grade 1 route winner Miner's Mark (6-18, 967K, 1-2 at two), multiple Grade 1-placed Our Emblem (5-27, 366K, 1-3 at two), Grade 3-placed router Proud and True (3-9, 96K, 1-5 at two) and Grade 1 route winner Traditionally (5-20, 495K, 2-5 at two, 0-4 on turf).  The dam is a half-sister to multiple Grade 1 route winner My Flag (6-20, 1.5M, 2-6 at two, won debut) and juvenile Grade 2-placed router Salute (1-10, 103K, 1-4 at two). The August 12 workout went .05 slower than trainer Al Stall's 4-year-old Cease (89 turf Beyer). Stall is 2-9 (22%, $5.82 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf routes (1-2, 50%, $8.30 ROI at Saratoga). Stall is 7-34, 20%, $1.87 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

4. ANCIL (City Zip - Le Grand Belle, by With Approval, April 26, 2009 in Kentucky, Out Keeneland April juvenile) is by a juvenile Grade 1 sprint winner (9-23, 818K, 5-11 at two, 0-2 on turf) that is 150-776 (19%) with juveniles and 143-891 (16%) with turfers. The City Zip - With Approval breeding 'nick' has produced Grade 2 route winner With a City (4-13, 359K, 3-10 at two, 2-3 on turf) and juvenile stakes-winning sprinter Romantic Hideaway (3-6, 128K, 3-4 at two) The dam was a turf winner (2-10, 34K, 2-9 on turf) and has foaled 1 winner from 3 runners (0-2 with 2yos, 0-2 with turfers). The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Johnny Dollar (9-39, 369K, 1-3 at two, 5-20 on turf) and stakes-placed turfer Black Java (3-20, 117K, 3-14 on turf). Trainer Joan Scott is 0-1 over the past five years with juveniles returning from 31-60 day layoff on turf.  Already stakes-placed on turf at Colonial Downs and should show speed stretching out three furlongs in distance.

11. DADDY NOSE BEST  (Scat Daddy - Follow Your Bliss, by Thunder Gulch, March 3, 2009 in Kentucky, $34,000 RNA Keeneland November weanling, $35,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (5-9, 1.3M, 3-5 at two) that is 5-49 (10%) with juveniles and 1-6 (17%) with turf runners from his first crop of 2011.  The dam was placed on turf (0-12, 22K, 0-11 on turf) and has foaled 1 winner from 2 runners (0-2 with 2yos, 0-1 with turfers).  The second dam is Grade 2 winner Follow the Money (6-14, 339K, 5-11 on turf).  Trainer Steve Asmussen is 5-35 (14%, $2.65 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles in maiden special weight turf routes (1-5, 20%, $4.00 ROI at Saratoga).  Finished ahead of several of these when chasing promising Captain Webb.

9. HONOR CALL (Empire Maker - Collect Call, by Meadowlake, January 14, 2009 in Kentucky, $300,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (4-8, 1.9M, 1-2 at two) that is 41-217 (19%) with juveniles and 88-592 (15%) with turfers.  The dam, a $250,000 juvenile, was a Grade 3 winner (3-17, 434K, 1-4 at two) and has foaled 2 winners from 4 runners (2-3 with juveniles, 0-1 with turfers).  Honor Call is a half-brother to Grade 2 route winner Old Fashioned (4-6, 583K, 3-3 at two).  This is the female family of Grade 1 winner Mitterand (6-17, 446K). Trainer Wayne Lukas is 0-2 over the past five years with juveniles going second off a layoff in maiden special weight turf routes (0-1 at Saratoga). Showed improved speed in first route attempt and that race may have him legged up to route.  Could be a forward factor for Mr. Lukas.

3.  SATURDAY CLASSIC (Any Given Saturday - Classic Approval, by With Approval, May 7, 2009 in Kentucky, $75,000 OBS Select August yearling, $180,000 OBS Select March juvenile, Out Keeneland April juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.2 prior to the March auction.  He is by a Grade 1 route winner (6-11, 1.0M, 2-3 at two) that is 2-12 (17% with juvenile debut runners and 1-4 (25%) with turf runners from his first crop of 2011.  The dam was multiple stakes-placed (3-14, 109K, 1-5 at two, 3-10 on turf) and has foaled 8 winners from 9 runners (3-6 with juveniles, 6-9 with turfers).  Saturday Classic is a half-brother to multiple Grade 3 winner Gulch Approval (8-40, 593K, 0-2 at two, 5-21 on turf), stakes-winner Approval Rating (4-16, 302K, 2-4 at two, 1-3 on turf) and Grade 2-placed router Highest Class (2-12, 120K, 2-5 at two, 0-1 on turf). The dam is a half-sister to Grade 2 winner Class Kris (10-27, 603K, 0-1 at two, 6-12 on turf), multiple Grade 3-placed sprinter Class on Class (5-34, 189K, 1-3 at two, 0-2 on turf) and stakes-winner Patriot Act (4-19, 452K, 0-4 at two). Casse is 1-10 (10%, $3.52 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles in maiden special weight turf routes. Gave a solid showing in career debut and wouldn't be a surprise with normal second-out improvement.

12. SEVE (Giant's Causeway - Our Dani, by Homebuilder, January 23, 2011 in Kentucky, $140,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Group 1 turf winner (9-13, 3.0M, 3-3 at two, 9-12 on turf) that is 60-442 (14%) with juveniles and 315-2052 (15%) with turfers.  The dam, a $6,500 weanling, was a sprint winner (2-20, 11K, 0-1 at two, 0-1 on turf) and has foaled 3 winners from 7 runners (2-5 with juveniles, 0-3 with turfers).  Seve is a half-brother to multiple Grade 1 winner You (9-23, 2.1M, 3-6 at two).  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed Tammany Doll (1-21, 40K, 0-5 at two, 0-2 on turf).  Trainer Dale Romans is 8-46 (17%, $1.71 ROI) with juveniles in maiden special weight turf routes (0-12 at Saratoga). Raced wide in turf debut, but is hung out in outside post once again.

6. AWESOME'S ELEVEN (Awesome Again - Remember Love, by A.P. Indy, March 14, 2009 in Kentucky, $100,000 RNA Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (9-12, 4.3M) that is 81-521 (16%) with juveniles and 15-257 (6%) with first-turfers. The Awesome Again - A.P. Indy breeding 'nick' has produced Grade 3 router Awesome Chic (3-12, 216K, 1-2 at two).  The dam, an $800,000 yearling, was unraced and has foaled 1 winner from 3 runners (0-1 with 2yos, 0-2 with turfers). The second dam is French stakes-placed turfer First Night (2-5, 33K, 2-5 on turf).  The July 20 workout matches trainer Dallas Stewart's juvenile Flashy Sunrise (entered in today's sixth race). Stewart is 1-2 (50%, $7.80 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles going dirt to turf and sprint to route in maiden special weight. Didn't do much in the slower division of maiden special weight sprints at Churchill Downs on July 3, but is bred to appreciate today's longer distance.

13. POLITICALLYCORRECT (Kitten's Joy - Exceedexpectations, by Tale of the Cat, May 14, 2009 in Kentucky, Withdrawn Fasig-Tipton Spring May juvenile) is by a multiple Grade 1 turf winner (9-14, 2.0M, 2-4 at two, 9-12 on turf, first-turf winner) that is 19-105 (18%) with juvenile debut runners (5-46, 11%, $1.99 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 juvenile debut winner, 1 older debut winner on turf) and 20-127 (16%) with first-turf runners.. The dam was a sprint winner (2-13, 68K) and this is her first starter. This is the female family of Grade 2 juvenile winner Big Sur (4-25, 323K, 2-8 at two).  Trainer Wesley Ward is 1-4 (25%, $1.70 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf routes (0-2 at Saratoga). Ward is 14-44 (31%, $1.78 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

2. ARTHUR (Artie Schiller - Janeian, by The Jogger, April 6, 2009 in Kentucky, $32,000 Keeneland September yearling, $150,000 OBS Select March juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.2 prior to the March auction. He is by Grade 1 turf winner (10-22, 2.0M, 2-5 at two, 10-19 on turf) that is 13-117 (11%) with juveniles and 25-137 (18%) with turfers. The dam was a Grade 3 turf winner (9-41, 393K, 9-40 on turf) and has foaled 1 winner from 3 runners (0-1 with 2yos, 1-2 with turfers). Trainer Kathy Ritvo is 0-1 over the past five years with second-time juveniles going sprint to route on turf. Gave a good showing in sprint debut and switches to Ramon Dominguez.

5. TIZ A HOMERUN (Tiznow - Carsonality, by Carson City, April 11, 2009 in Kentucky, $300,000 yearling Fasig-Tipton Select August 2010, Out Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (8-15, 6.4M) that is 77-506 (15%) with juveniles and 78-651 (12%) with turfers.  The Tiznow - Carson City breeding 'nick' has produced juvenile Grade 1-placed router Big Tiz (1-8, 160K, 1-6 at two, 0-3 on turf) and stakes-winning sprinter Lady Chace (6-19, 252K, 1-2 at two, 1-6 on turf). The Tiznow - Carson City breeding 'nick' has produced Grade 3-placed sprinter Big Tiz (1-8, 160K, 1-6 at two, 0-1 on turf) and stakes-winning sprinter Lady Chace (6-19, 252K, 1-2 at two, 1-6 on turf). The dam, an $18,000 yearling, was a stakes-winner (4-23, 121K, 0-7 at two, 2-8 on turf) and has foaled 3 winners from 7 runners (1-5 with juveniles, 0-5 with turf runners).  Tiz a Homerun is a half-brother to Grade 3-placed router Larrys Revenge (5-15, 71K, 1-4 at two).  The dam is a half-sister to multiple Grade 1 winner Fran's Valentine (13-34, 1.3M, 3-9 at two, 0-3 on turf), Grade 2 winner Iz a Saros (4-15, 212K, 1-5 at two, 0-1 on turf), multiple stakes-placed Recommendation (6-68, 244K, 0-2 at two, 2-13 on turf) and Grade 2-placed Crissy Aya (3-10, 119K, 0-1 on turf).  Trainer Graham Motion is 6-26 (23%, $3.06 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles in maiden special weight turf routes (1-3, 33%, $1.63 ROI at Saratoga). Had some traffic trouble in career debut and figures to have gained valuable experience from that run.

7. RALLY POINT (Thunder Gulch - Boogie Beach Blues, by Cure the Blues, April 22, 2009 in Kentucky, $65,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (9-16, 2.9M, 2-6 at two) that is 31-349 (9%) with juvenile debut runners (2-35, 6%, $1.02 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 older winner on turf) and 43-442 (10%) with first-turfers. The dam, an $80,000 weanling, was unraced and has foaled 2 winners from 3 runners (1-3 with 2yos, 2-2 with turfers).  Rally Point is a half-brother to multiple stakes-winner Storm Treasure (6-40, 710K, 1-3 at two, 3-25 on turf). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winner Miss North Beach (5-22, 149K, 3-11 on turf), stakes-winning sprinter Lonely Fact (4-17, 46K, 1-3 at two, 0-4 on turf) and stakes-placed juvenile Ww Conquistador (25-137, 373K, 1-7 at two, 0-3 on turf). The dam is a full sister to Hong Kong turf winner Victory Mount (4-51, 459K). The June 4, June 17 workouts match trainer Ken McPeek's juvenile filly Callmenancy (finished ninth in career debut on dirt on August 7 with 17 Beyer). The June 25, August 9 workouts match McPeek's juvenile Bunker's Ledge (finished third in career debut on dirt in $50,000 maiden claimer on July 31 with 58 Beyer). The July 2 workout matches McPeek's juvenile filly Why Take a Chance (finished first in career debut in $50,000 maiden claimer on dirt on August 4 with 62 Beyer). The July 15 workout matches McPeek's juvenile filly Bye Love You (finished second in career debut in $50,000 maiden claimer on dirt on July 29 with 50 Beyer; has 61 Beyer on turf). The July 28, August 3 workouts match McPeek's juvenile Affirmed Warrior (finished fourth in career debut on dirt on August 10 with 43 Beyer). McPeek is 4-33 (12%, $2.73 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf routes (1-10, 10%, $4.84 ROI at Saratoga). McPeek is 4-47 (8%, $1.14 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

10. FANTASTIC SONG (Lemon Drop Kid - Fantastic Shirl, by Fantastic Light, January 19, 2009 in Kentucky, $95,000 RNA Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Grade 1 winner (10-24, 3.2M, 2-6 at two) that is 15-168 (9%) with juvenile debut runners (3-42, 7%, $0.73 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 juvenile debut winner) and 35-288 (12%) with first-turf runners.  The dam, a $170,000 yearling, was a turf stakes-winner (4-19, 251K, 4-18 on turf, first-turf winner) and this is her first starter.  The dam is a half-sister to juvenile stakes-placed sprinter Winning Talk (7-37, 113K, 1-3 at two, won debut, 0-1 on turf), multiple Grade 1 turfer Shakespeare (7-8, 1.2M, 7-8 on turf, first-turf winner), stakes-winner Lady Shakespeare (7-12, 495K, 1-2 at two, won debut, 6-11 on turf, first-turf winner) and Grade 2 turfer Perfect Shirl (3-12, 238K, 2-9 on turf). The June 7 workout matches trainer Chad Brown's 3-year-old Kitten in May (76 turf Beyer). The June 16, June 22, July 4, July 11, July 18, August 1, August 8 workouts match Brown's juvenile Liquidity Trap (finished sixth in career debut on august 13 with 61 Beyer). The July 25 workout matches Brown's juvenile Takemebaktoartemus (finished fifth in career debut on August 6 with 64 Beyer). Brown is 3-21 (14%, $1.45 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf routes (2-10, 20%, Positive ROI at Saratoga). Brown is 3-31 (9%, $1.14 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

8. SITUATIONAL ETHICS (Broken Vow - Ayla Bella, by Touch Gold, January 30, 2009 in Kentucky, $60,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a Grade 2 route winner (9-14, 725K) that is 103-732 (14%) with juveniles and 170-1321 (13%) with turfers. The dam, a $150,000 juvenile, was a stakes-winner (7-22, 107K, 0-3 at two, 3-7 on turf) and this is her first starter. The dam is a half-sister to Group 2-placed juvenile turfer Jobe (3-19, 48K, 1-5 at two, 3-18 on turf) and multiple stakes-winning router Alec's Moon (4-11, 125K, 2-5 at two, 0-2 on turf). Trainer Mark Hennig is 0-10 over the past five years with second-time juveniles going sprint to route in maiden special weight on turf (0-4 at Saratoga).  Made up some late ground going shorter in his debut, but catches a tough group.

14. MY ADONIS (Pleasantly Perfect - Silent Justice, by Elusive Quality, April 23, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a multiple Grade/Group 1 route winner (9-18, 7.7M) that is 27-130 (21%) with juveniles. The dam, a $70,000 yearling, was unraced and this is her first starter.  The dam is a half-sister to Grade 3 sprint winner Lakota Brave (8-21, 447K, 8-20 sprinting), British Group 3-placed turfer Silverdale.  Trainer Kelly Breen is 26-92 (28%, $1.58 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles in maiden special weight dirt sprints.  Capable if this race is washed to the main track.

Selections:
1. Animal Spirits
2. Ancil
3. Daddy Nose Best

The Play:
Animal Spirits to Win and Place at 9-2 odds or greater

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*Meet record based on starts, wins, top pick (after scratches) in the money, and profit/loss of that day's play ($2 wager, scheduled surface only): 48-12-22 (-$19.40)