08/19/2011 8:39PM

Saratoga Spa Babies for August 20, Race 6

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Welcome to Spa Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile contest at the meet and hope for a tidy profit.

In past years, I would list the stats for each horse before writing up my analysis, selections and wagering strategy. In order to streamline the content, this year's Spa Babies will showcase written analyses of each juvenile race. Each analysis will include relevant statistical information. Following the analysis, top three selections and wagering strategy will be provided.

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Saturday, August 20, 2011

Race 6
7 Furlongs
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-olds
Purse $50,000

Analysis:

4. GRANDPA LEN (Rockport Harbor - Small Pleasures, by Cat Thief, March 18, 2009 in Kentucky, $62,000 Keeneland September yearling, $150,000 OBS Select March juvenile) worked 2 furlongs in 21.1 prior to the March auction.  He is by a juvenile Grade 2 route winner (5-8, 324K, 4-4 at two, 2-2 sprinting) that is 25-215 (12%) with juveniles. The dam was a sprint winner (1-7, 19K, 0-2 at two, 1-6 sprinting) and has foaled 1 winner from 2 runners (1-2 with juveniles, 1-2 with sprinters).  Grandpa Len is a half-brother to Grade 3-placed juvenile (Puerto Rico) Sumei (2-17, 27K, 1-9 at two, 2-16 sprinting). The third dam is stakes-winner File (5-22, 73K).  Trainer David Donk is 1-12 (8%, $0.36 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles in maiden special weight dirt sprints (0-2 at Saratoga). Bumped at the start of his debut, he tracked the pace along the inside before finishing evenly for fourth, with a good figure, behind a promising winner.

6. NEWS PENDING (Harlan's Holiday - Motivated Sreva, by Lear Fan, March 16, 2009 in Kentucky, $180,000 Keeneland November weanling, $220,000 RNA Keeneland September yearling, $185,000 RNA Fasig-Tipton February juvenile, $250,000 Fasig-Tipton Spring May juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.2 prior to the February auction and 1 furlong in 10.3 prior to the May auction.  He is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (9-22, 3.6M, 4-6 at two, 2-3 sprinting) that is 24-174 (14%) with juvenile debut runners (4-41, 10%, $2.97 ROI with all debut runners in 2011).  The dam, a $17,000 yearling, was a turf winner (3-10, 56K, 0-1 sprinting) and this is her first starter.  The dam is a half-sister to Grade 2 sprint winner Adore the Gold (4-15, 239K, 3-4 at two, won debut, 3-9 sprinting).  Trainer Dale Romans is 14-122 (11%, $1.65 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (2-16, 13%, $3.08 ROI at Saratoga).  Romans is 2-27 (7%, $1.25 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

12. STEVIE JONES (Smarty Jones - Southern Streamer, by Dixie Union, April 24, 2009 in Kentucky, $60,000 Keeneland September yearling, Withdrawn OBS Spring April juvenile) is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (8-9, 7.6M, 2-2 at two, 2-2 sprinting) that is 11-69 (16%) with juvenile debut runners (2-33, 6%, $1.47 ROI with all debut runners in 2011).  The dam was placed (0-4, 13K, 0-2 sprinting) and has foaled 1 winner from 1 runner (1-1 with 2yos, debut winner, 1-1 with sprinters). The second dam is multiple stakes-winning router Gold Streamer (5-19, 182K, 0-2 sprinting). Trainer Michael Maker is 4-23 (17%, $1.22 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (1-5, 20%, $1.00 ROI at Saratoga).  Maker is 7-38 (18%, $1.89 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

3. EL PADRINO (Pulpit - Enchanted Rock, by Giant's Causeway, January 22, 2009 in Kentucky, $210,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Grade 2 route winner (4-6, 728K, 1-1 sprinting) that is 38-298 (13%) with juvenile debut runners (4-27, 15%, $1.02 ROI with all debut runners in 2011).  The dam was unplaced (0-1, $169) and this is her first starter.  The dam is a half-sister to Grade 2 route winner Tara Roma (5-16, 192K, 1-3 sprinting) and Grade 2 sprint winner Waldoboro (6-19, 202K, 5-17 sprinting). The August 8 workout matches trainer Todd Pletcher's juvenile How Do I Win (finished fourth in maiden special weight on August 13 with 73 Beyer).  Pletcher is 61-265 (23%, $1.63 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (20-82, 24%, $1.95 ROI at Saratoga).  Pletcher is 24-91 (26%, $1.80 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

1. TRITAP (Tapit - Victory Road, by Ikari, April 25, 2009 in Kentucky, $450,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a Grade 1 route winner (3-6, 557K, 2-2 at two) that is 19-155 (12%) with juvenile debut runners (4-45, 9%, $1.27 ROI with all debut runners in 2011).  The dam was a juvenile stakes-winner (3-14, 93K, 3-7 at two, 1-8 sprinting) and has foaled 2 winners from 4 runners (2-2 with 2yos, 1 juvenile debut winner, 2-4 sprinting).  Tritap is a full brother to stakes-winning sprinter Noisy Feet (4-20, 201K, 1-2 at two, 4-18 sprinting) and Grade 3 winner Touching Beauty (3-10, 183K, 1-4 at two, won debut, 2-7 sprinting).  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winning juvenile Tin Smithen (12-43, 262K, 2-7 at two, 2-9 sprinting).  The July 27 workout matches trainer Steve Asmussen's juvenile Seeker (finished third in career debut on August 10 with 76 Beyer). The August 3 workout went .03 slower than Asmussen's juvenile filly My Miss Aurelia (finished first in the Grade 2 Adirondack on August 14 with a 91 Beyer).  The August 3 workout matches Asmussen's juvenile Tiz Sardonic Joe (finished first in maiden special weight on turf on August 13 with 74 Beyer; 40 Beyer on dirt). Asmussen is 38-385 (15%, $1.35 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (8-41, 20%, $1.82 ROI at Saratoga).  Asmussen is 11-100 (11%, $1.22 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

2. ZELLERS (Distorted Humor - Half Queen, by Deputy Minister, April 15, 2009 in Kentucky, $625,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Grade 2 sprint winner (8-23, 769K, 7-13 sprinting) that is 151-863 (17%) with juveniles.  The dam, a $325,000 weanling, was a sprint winner in the slop (1-6, 43K, 1-5 sprinting) and has foaled 2 winners from 7 runners (1-5 with 2yos, 2-6 with sprinters). Zellers is a half-brother to multiple Grade 1 juvenile winner Halfbridled (4-6, 959K, 4-4 at two, 2-3 sprinting). The dam is a half-sister to multiple Grade 2 route winner Lu Ravi (12-27, $1.9M, 0-2 at two, 0-1 sprinting).   Trainer Wayne Lukas is 2-38 (5%, $0.81 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles adding blinkers in maiden special weight dirt sprints (0-12 at Saratoga).

9. TRIPENDICULAR (Tiznow - True Addiction, by Yes It's True, February 26, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (8-15, 6.4M, 0-1 sprinting) that is 77-506 (15%) with juveniles.  The dam, a $65,000 short yearling and $75,000 yearling, was a juvenile Grade 2-placed sprinter (2-13, 115K, 1-3 at two, 2-11 sprinting) and this is her first starter.  The third dam is Grade 3 winner Risen Colony (6-25, 225K, 0-1 at two). Trainer Kelly Breen is 9-24 (38%, $1.79 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles in maiden special weight dirt sprints.

8. B SHANNY (Street Cry - Nothing But Fun, by Dixie Union, February 24, 2009 in New York) is by a multiple Grade/Group 1 route winner (5-12, 5.1M, 1-5 at two, 1-3 sprinting) that is 39-252 (15%) with juveniles.  The dam, a $150,000 yearling, was a Grade 2 route winner (5-13, 455K, 3-8 sprinting) and this is her first starter.  The third dam is British juvenile Group 2 turf winner Highest Trump.  Trainer Mike Hushion is 1-8 (13%, $3.27 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles in maiden special weight dirt sprints (0-2 at Saratoga).

7. FLASHY SUNRISE (Flashy Bull - Desert Sunrise, by Came Home, April 8, 2009 in Kentucky, $20,000 Keeneland November weanling, $52,000 RNA Keeneland September yearling, $100,000 OBS Select March juvenile) worked 2 furlongs in 21.3 prior to the March auction.  He is by a Grade 1 route winner (5-19, 844K, 1-6 at two, 1-6 sprinting) that is 4-19 (21%, $2.01 ROI) with juvenile debut runners from his first crop of 2011.  The dam, a $105,000 yearling, was unplaced (0-2, $420, 0-2 at two) and has foaled 1 winner from 1 runner (1-1 with 2yos, 1-1 with sprinters).  The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed Pearly White (5-17, 177K, 1-4 sprinting), multiple stakes-winning turfer Wake Up Kiss (5-10, 248K, 0-2 sprinting) and multiple stakes-placed Morning Gallop (5-39, 299K, 0-4 at two, 1-7 sprinting).  The June 15, June 22, August 12 workouts match trainer Dallas Stewart's juvenile Grand Encounter (finished sixth in career debut at Churchill Downs on July 2 with 39 Beyer, finished fourth in $60,000 maiden claimer at Saratoga on August 17 with 39 Beyer).  The July 9 workout matches Stewart's juvenile Laurie's Rocket (finished first in maiden special weight on July 23 with 64 Beyer).  The July 20 workout matches Stewart's juvenile Awesome Eleven (41 Beyer, entered in today's eighth race).  Stewart is 6-63 (10%, $2.11 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (3-17, 18%, $6.54 ROI at Saratoga).  Stewart is 1-38 (2%, $1.82 ROI) with all debut runners since January 1, 2010.

5. SAINT HONORE (Sun King - She Ain't a Saint, by Meadowlake, May 3, 2009 in Kentucky, $29,000 Keeneland November weanling, Out Keeneland September yearling, Out Fasig-Tipton Spring May juvenile) is by a multiple Grade 2 winner (6-28, 2.2M, 1-4 at two, 1-2 sprinting) that is 0-10 with juvenile debut runners from his first crop of 2011.  The dam, a $20,000 yearling, was a sprint winner (5-26, 71K, 5-24 sprinting) and has foaled 5 winners from 6 runners (3-5 at two, 2 juvenile debut winners, 4-6 with sprinters).  Saint Honore is a half-brother to stakes-placed juvenile I Lost My Halo (4-26, 48K, 1-2 at two, won debut, 1-17 sprinting).  The dam is a half-sister to juvenile stakes-placed sprinter Tomica (1-20, 27K, 1-8 at two, won debut, 1-18 sprinting). The July 5 workout matches trainer Nick Zito's juvenile Hard Nosed (finished sixth in career debut on July 27 with 24 Beyer). The July 25 workout matches Zito's juvenile A Cat That Flies (finished eighth in career debut on July 30 with 37 Beyer).  The August 8 workout matches Zito's 3-year-old Alvito (59 Beyer on turf, 43 Beyer on dirt).  Zito is 12-121 (10%, $1.68 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (5-57, 9%, $1.11 ROI at Saratoga).  Zito is 1-33 (3%, $0.46 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

11. RIGHTFULLY SO (A.P. Indy - Society Selection, by Coronado's Quest, March 14, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (8-11, 2.9M, 3-4 at two, 1-2 sprinting) that is 44-379 (12%) with juvenile debut runners (5-27, 19%, $2.26 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 2 juvenile debut winners, 1 juvenile debut winner at this meet, 1 older debut winner at this meet).  The dam was a multiple Grade 1 winner (6-19, 1.9M, 2-3 at two, won debut, 2-3 sprinting) and has foaled 1 winner from 2 runners (0-1 with 2yos, 0-2 with sprinters). The second dam is Grade 3 winner Love That Jazz (6-21, 482K, 2-4 at two, 5-16 sprinting).  The July 17 workout went .01 slower than trainer Allen Jerkens' 3-year-old filly Bella Silver (finished eighth in career debut on July 27 with 18 Beyer).  Jerkens is 0-25 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (0-5 at Saratoga).  Jerkens is 1-7 (14%, $1.31 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

10. FIVE SIXTEEN (Invasor - Third Street, by Salt Lake, February 14, 2009 in Kentucky, $225,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Grade/Group 1 winner (11-12, 7.8M, 1-1 at two, 2-2 sprinting) that is 0-2 with juvenile debut runners from his first crop of 2011.  The dam, an $11,000 yearling and $47,000 juvenile, was a sprint winner (1-4, 17K, 0-1 at two, 1-4 sprinting) and has foaled 4 winners from 6 runners (1-3 with 2yos, 3-6 with sprinters).  Five Sixteen is a half-brother to stakes-winner Doc's Doll (6-23, 207K, 1-5 at two, 2-13 sprinting).  The dam is a half-sister to multiple Group 2 winner Nostradamus (7-15, 87K), and Malaysian stakes-winner Saugatuck (7-26).   The August 3 workout went .01 faster than trainer Dominick Schettino's 3-year-old Tu Si Pazzo (finished seventh in career debut on turf on August 17 with a 44 Beyer).  The August 3 workout went .04 faster than Schettino's juvenile Ida's Pride (entered in today's second race). Schettino is 0-10 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (0-4 at Saratoga).  Schettino is 3-14 (21%, $2.40 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.  

Selections:
1. Grandpa Len
2. News Pending
3. Stevie Jones

The Play:
Grandpa Len to Win at 7-2 odds or greater.