08/19/2011 7:27PM

Saratoga Spa Babies for August 20, Race 2

Email

Welcome to Spa Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile contest at the meet and hope for a tidy profit.

In past years, I would list the stats for each horse before writing up my analysis, selections and wagering strategy. In order to streamline the content, this year's Spa Babies will showcase written analyses of each juvenile race. Each analysis will include relevant statistical information. Following the analysis, top three selections and wagering strategy will be provided.

***

Friday's result:
Race 1:  Illegally Blonde finished fifth
Race 7:  Flip the Switch did not finish

***

Saturday, August 20, 2011

Race 2
1 1/16 Miles (Turf)
Maiden Special Weight (New York Breds)
2-year-olds
Purse $41,000

Analysis:

7. UNBRIDLED COMMAND (Master Command - Unbridled Betty, by Unbridled's Song, March 22, 2009, Withdrawn Fasig-Tipton Preferred August yearling, $28,000 OBS Spring April juvenile) worked 2 furlongs in 22.3 prior to the April auction.  He is by a multiple Grade 2 route winner (8-17, 1.1M) that is 3-27 (11%) with juveniles and 1-3 (33%) with first-turfers from his first crop of runners in 2011.  The dam, a $150,000 yearling, was unraced and has foaled 2 winners from 4 runners (0-3 with 2yos, 1-1 with turfers, first-turf winner).  The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Tarage (4-12, 162K, 3-6 on turf, first-turf winner) and stakes-winning juvenile Chartreuse (2-8, 92K, 2-3 at two, 1-3 on turf, first-turf winner). The July 25 workout matches trainer Tom Bush's 5-year-old Get Stormy (102 Beyer top on turf). Bush is 2-3 (67%, $7.20 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles going dirt to turf and sprint to route in statebred maiden special weights (1-2, 50%, $3.60 at Saratoga). Didn't do much on dirt against next-out winner Silent Thunder (64 Beyer in $50,000 maiden claimer on dirt), but shows strong works on grass and may appreciate the additional distance.

6. SWAG DADDY (Scat Daddy - Mrs. Filio, by Eastern Echo, May 3, 2009, $72,000 Fasig-Tipton Preferred yearling, August 2010; $170,000 OBS Select juvenile, March 2011) worked a furlong in 10.3 prior to the March auction.  He is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (5-9, $1.3M, 3-5 at two) that is 5-49 (10%) with juveniles and 1-6 (17%) with first-turfers from his first crop of runners in 2011. The dam, a $36,000 yearling, was a winner (3-21, 39K, 1-8 at two) and has foaled 6 winners from 10 runners (3-9 with juveniles, 0-3 with turfers).  Swag Daddy is a half-brother to Grade 3-placed juvenile What a Tale (3-10, 128K, 1-4 at two) and juvenile stakes-placed router Anjorie (2-13, 102K, 1-3 at two). The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed Saratoga Madame (1-14, 44K, 1-6 at two, 0-1 on turf), and stakes-placed juvenile It's Chemistry (5-26, 98K, 1-5 at two, 0-3 on turf).  The August 3 workout matches trainer Derek Ryan's 4-year-old Alfarabi (finished seventh in $50,000 optional claimer on August 13 with 78 Beyer). Ryan is 0-1 over the past five years with second-time juveniles adding Lasix and going from sprint to route and dirt to turf in maiden special weight.  Took a good deal of money for his career debut and now adds Lasix for barn that has better numbers second-out than with firsters.

10. ROCK STAR CHARLIE (E Dubai - Charlies Paradise, by Winrightt, May 10, 2009, $30,000 Fasig-Tipton Select October yearling) is by a multiple Grade 2 route winner (5-11, 920K, 1-2 at two, won debut) that is 25-154 (16%) with juvenile debut runners (6-40, 15%, $2.47 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 4 juvenile debut winners) and 20-153 (13%) with first-turfers. The dam was a multiple stakes-winning sprinter (6-27, 260K, 5-6 at two, won debut, 0-2 on turf) and has foaled 7 winners from 8 runners (2-4 with 2yos, 1-5 with turfers).  Rock Star Charlie is a half-brother to Japanese stakes-placed Tagano Charlies (4-12, 522K, 1-4 at two, winner on turf), multiple stakes-placed Continuum (11-83, 141K, 0-1 at two, 0-5 on turf) and stakes-placed Bad Big Al (7-30, 163K, 0-2 on turf). The dam is a full sister to Grade 3 sprinter Big Jewel (24-103, 517K, 3-9 at two, 0-2 on turf) and multiple stakes-winning sprinter Miss Gibson County (11-22, 545K, 5-7 at two, won debut, 0-1 on turf).  The dam is a half-sister to juvenile Grade 3-placed sprinter Treasure Man (12-72, 125K, 2-10 at two, won debut), juvenile stakes-placed turfer Correoso (2-12, 62K, 1-5 at two, 2-11 on turf) and Grade 2-placed turfer La Ronge (4-16, 202K, 0-1 at two, 1-8 on turf).  Trainer Linda Rice is 1-8 (13%, $1.35 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in statebred maiden special weight turf routes (1-7, 14%, $1.54 ROI at Saratoga).  Rice is 3-39 (7%, $0.87 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

3. ROYAL BLESSING (Kitten's Joy - Kamaina Rose, by Royal Academy, March 17, 2009, $25,000 Fasig-Tipton Spring May juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.2 prior to the May auction.  He is by a multiple Grade 1 turf winner (9-14, 2.0M, 2-4 at two, 9-12 on turf, first-turf winner) that is 19-105 (18%) with juvenile debut runners (5-46, 11%, $1.99 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 juvenile debut winner, 1 older debut winner on turf) and 20-127 (16%) with first-turf runners. The dam, a $40,000 yearling, was placed (0-6, 13K, 0-1 on turf) and has foaled 0 winners from 1 runner (0-0 with 2yos, 0-0 with turfers). The third dam is British Group 1-placed turfer Konafa.  Trainer Linda Rice is 1-8 (13%, $1.35 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in statebred maiden special weight turf routes (1-7, 14%, $1.54 ROI at Saratoga).  Rice is 3-39 (7%, $0.87 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

4. POST PATTERN (English Channel - Country Cookout, by Formal Dinner, March 24, 2009, $32,000 Fasig-Tipton October yearling) is by a multiple Grade 1 turf winner (13-23, 5.3M, 1-1 at two, 13-22 on turf, first-turf winner) that is 3-12 (25%, $5.66 ROI) with juvenile debut runners (2 debut winner on turf at this meet) and 2-7 (29%) with first-turfers from his first crop of runners in 2011.  The dam was a sprint winner (3-23, 27K, 0-4 at two) and has foaled 1 winner from 2 runners (0-1 with 2yos, 0-1 with turfers).  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed turfer Wekiva Mist (3-28, 115K, 1-7 at two, 3-23 on turf) and Grade 2-placed router Nar (4-27, 177K, 1-2 at two, 0-1 on turf). The August 12 workout matches trainer Dominick Schettino's uncoupled stablemate Ida's Pride.  Schettino is 0-5 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in statebred maiden special weight turf routes (0-2 at Saratoga). Schettino is 3-14 (21%, $2.40 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

8. VAN TASSEL (Corinthian - Adorahy, by Rahy, April 3, 2009, $120,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a Grade 1 route winner (6-12, 1.2M, 1-2 at two) that is 1-21 (5%, $0.14 ROI) with juvenile debut runners (1 at this meet) and 0-2 with first-turfers from his first crop of runners in 2011. The dam was a sprint winner (1-10, 46K, 0-2 on turf) and has foaled 6 winners from 6 runners (2-4 with 2yos, 2 juvenile debut winners, 3-5 with turfers, 1 first-turf winner).  Van Tassel is a half-brother to multiple stakes-winner Icabad Crane (7-27, 549K, 1-1 at two, 0-3 on turf) and stakes-winning turfer Our Golden Dream (3-19, 149K< 1-4 at two, won debut, 3-18 on turf, first-turf winner).  The dam is a half-sister to Grade 2-placed turfer Adoryphar (4-25, 141K, 1-3 at two, won debut, 4-25 on turf, first-turf winner), stakes-winner Adorydar (3-13, 231K, 1-5 on turf, first-turf winner), Grade 3 turf winner Adcat (5-28, 435K, 0-2 at two, 5-24 on turf). Trainer Graham Motion is 0-17 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf routes (0-6 at Saratoga).  Motion is 3-27 (11%, $1.68 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

9.  MISSISSIPPI DUEL (Bernstein - River Nore, by Archers Bay, January 30, 2009, $75,000 Fasig-Tipton Preferred August yearling) is by a multiple Group 3 turf winner (4-8, 173K, 2-3 at two, 4-7 on turf) that is 106-624 (17%) with juveniles and 175-1132 (15%) with turfers. The dam was a stakes-winning sprinter (2-15, 188K, 1-2 at two, 0-2 on turf) and this is her first starter.  The third dam is multiple stakes-winner Fat Emma (7-28, 225K, 0-3 on turf).  Trainer Bill Mott is 1-3 (33%, $2.23 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles going sprint to route in statebred maiden special weights on turf (1-3, 33%, $2.23 ROI at Saratoga). Has valuable grass experience and may be the horse to beat for barn that does well second-out compared to their numbers with first-time starters.

2. IDA'S PRIDE (Sunriver - Baymont, by Wild Again, March 26, 2009) is by a Grade 1 turf winner (6-17, 816K, 1-2 at two, 3-6 on turf, first-turf winner) that is 1-2 (50%, $4.50 ROI) with juvenile debut runners from his first crop of 2011.  Ida's Pride is his first turf starter.  The dam, a $27,000 short yearling, was a winner (5-33, 189K, 0-3 at two, 4-19 on turf) and this is her first starter.  The dam is a half-sister to Grade 3 winner Golden Rahy (5-16, 203K, 4-14 on turf). The July 2 workout matches trainer Dominick Schettino's juvenile filly My Jopia (finished third in career debut on dirt in $50,000 maiden claimer on August 19). The August 3 workout went .04 slower than Schettino's juvenile Five Sixteen (entered in today's sixth race).  The August 3 workout went .03 slower than Schettino's 3-year-old Tu Si Paxxo (finished seventh in his career debut on August 17 with a 44 Beyer). The August 12 workout matches Schettino's uncoupled stable mate Post Pattern.  Schettino is 0-5 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in statebred maiden special weight turf routes (0-2 at Saratoga). Schettino is 3-14 (21%, $2.40 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

5. FOX RULES (Roman Ruler - Shesastonecoldfox, by Foxhound, March 22, 2009, $58,000 RNA Fasig-Tipton Fall November weanling) is by a Grade 1 route winner (5-10, 1.2M, 3-5 at two) that is 40-284 (14%) with juveniles and 6-86 (7%) with first-turfers. The dam was a multiple stakes-winning juvenile (4-10, 216K, 4-5 at two) and has foaled 3 winners from 4 runners (1-4 with 2yos, 1-3 with turfers).  Fox Rules is a half-brother to juvenile stakes-placed Elusive Fox (3-33, 163K, 1-3 at two, 2-24 on turf). The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed Always Belong (6-36, 95K, 1-1 at two, 0-1 on turf), stakes-placed sprinter Raiders Bid (6-52, 75K) and juvenile stakes-winning sprinter Boston Raider (7-61, 127K, 2-5 at two). The July 31 workout matches trainer Anthony Ferraro's 8-year-old Holly Time (finished seventh in $5,000 'n3y' claimer over the Tapeta surface at Presque Isle Downs on August 4 with a 34 Beyer).  Ferraro is 0-1 over the past five years with second-time juveniles going sprint to route and dirt to turf in statebred maiden special weight. Finished ahead of the top pick in debut after poor break.

1. WESTERN TRYST (Western Expression - Pride of Trieste, by Old Trieste, March 22, 2009) is by a Grade 1-placed sprinter (3-16, 140K, 0-1 on turf) that is 28-303 (9%) with juveniles and 12-117 (10%) with first-turfers. The dam, a $75,000 weanling and $55,000 juvenile, was a sprint winner (1-12, 12K) and has foaled 0 winners from 2 runners (0-2 with juveniles, 0-0 with turfers).  This is the family of Grade 3 winner Unknown Heiress (5-27, 73K, 1-12 at two).  Trainer Phil Serpe is 0-5 over the past five years with second-time juveniles going sprint to route and dirt to turf in statebred maiden special weights (0-5 at Saratoga).  Only raced evenly in career debut behind main track only entrymate Goose No Fruit.

11. LIVE FOR TODAY (Mineshaft - Zip, by Danzig, April 14, 2009, $22,000 RNA Fasig-Tipton Select October yearling) is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (10-18, 2.2M) that is 6-117 (5%) with juvenile debut runners (1-33, 3%, $2.87 ROI with all debut runners in 2011).  The Mineshaft - Danzig breeding 'nick' has produced multiple stakes-placed sprinter Philippe (2-10, 86K, 1-4 at two, 2-10 sprinting). The dam, an $850,000 yearling, was a sprint winner (2-4, 30K, 1-1 at two, 2-4 sprinting) and has foaled 1 winner from 5 runners (0-2 with 2yos, 0-4 with sprinters).  The dam is a full sister to Grade 3-placed Hidden Truth (3-9, 123K, 0-1 sprinting). The August 12 workout went .01 faster than trainer Dominick Schettino's juvenile filly My Jopia (finished third in career debut on dirt in $50,000 maiden claimer on August 19).  Schettino is 0-7 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in statebred maiden special weight dirt sprints (0-2 at Saratoga). Schettino is 3-14 (21%, $2.40 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011

12. EDUCATOR (Read the Footnotes - Mrs. Chippy, by Honour and Glory, March 30, 2009, $0 RNA New York Mixed October weanling) is by a multiple Grade 2 route winner (5-8, 450K, 4-5 at two 2-2 sprinting) that is 28-204 (14%) with juveniles. The dam, a $50,000 yearling, was a sprint winner in the slop (1-7, 63K, 0-2 at two, 1-7 sprinting) and has foaled 0 winners from 2 runners (0-2 with 2yos, 0-1 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to juvenile Grade 3-placed What a Tale (3-10, 128K, 1-4 at two, 2-7 sprinting) and juvenile stakes-placed router Anjorie (2-13, 83K, 1-3 at two, 2-9 sprinting). Trainer Dane Kobiskie is 1-4 (25%, $1.55 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles going from routes to sprints. Intriguing invader can factor on dirt.

1a. GOOSE NO FRUIT (Proud Citizen - Bellanique, by Joyeux Danseur, March 22, 2009) is by a Grade 2 route winner (3-16, 638K, 1-4 at two, 2-8 sprinting) that is 61-431 (14%) with juveniles  The dam was a turf winner (2-9, 87K, 0-1 at two, 0-2 sprinting) and has foaled 0 winners from 2 runners (0-1 with juveniles, 0-1 with sprinters).  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed French Transition (7-89, 284K, 0-3 at two, 0-17 sprinting).  Trainer Carlos Martin is 0-2 over the past five years with second-time juveniles in statebred maiden special weight dirt sprints (0-2 at Saratoga). Ran well in career debut and can improve second-out.


Selections:
1. Unbridled Command
2. Swag Daddy
3. Rock Star Charlie

The Play:
Unbridled Command to Win and Place at 6-1 odds or greater.