08/13/2011 9:24PM

Saratoga Spa Babies for August 14, Race 9

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Welcome to Spa Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile contest at the meet and hope for a tidy profit.

In past years, I would list the stats for each horse before writing up my analysis, selections and wagering strategy.  In order to streamline the content, this year's Spa Babies will showcase written analyses of each juvenile race.  Each analysis will include relevant statistical information.  Following the analysis, top three selections and wagering strategy will be provided.

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MORE DETAILED STATISTICAL ANALYSIS WILL RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY'S CARD

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Race 9
6 1/2 Furlongs
Adirondack Stakes (Grade 2)
2-year-old fillies
Purse $150,000

 

Analysis:

#5 MY MISS AURELIA easily earned this field's best Beyer when winning her debut here on Opening Day. A $550,000 yearling purchase, My Miss Aurelia is a half-sister to stakes-placed miler Albergatti. The dam, a half-sister to stakes-winning router Soul Warrior, was a very fast performer, winning four races with triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures (including a 111 for her victory in the six-furlong Desert Stormer Handicap on dirt at Hollywood Park). My Miss Aurelia has good speed, but also boasts a strong attack post position. She should be prominent when the field swings into the stretch and looms a reasonable favorite despite facing winners for the first time.

#2 BELLACOURT showed an affinity for this Saratoga surface by whipping New York-bred maidens by open lengths on July 31. A $23,000 short yearling that resold for $25,000 as a yearling, Bellacourt is out of a stakes-placed dam and shows a quick workout over the all weather training track at Fair Hill in preparation for this. Handicappers may want to forgive her career debut as she attempted to rally over a speed-favoring surface at Belmont on July 10. Bellacourt obviously faces tougher and could find the fractions hotter than in her maiden win, but she has some valuable experience and can't be counted out if the favorite stubs her toe.

#4 MILLIONREASONSWHY, a perfect two-for-two in her career, won the Grade 2 Matron in a time that was faster than what the boys put up in the Grade 2 Futurity earlier on the card at Belmont on July 3. A $115,000 yearling, Millionreasonswhy is a half-sister to stakes-winning sprinter Beyondallboundaries (87 Beyer in winning the Dearly Precious Stakes going six furlongs at Monmouth) and has the experience edge on the betting favorite. She may have benefited slightly by a closer-friendly track when winning the Matron, but would appreciate a hot pace up front.

#1 NEW WAVE, a $300,000 yearling purchase, is a half-sister to Grade 1 turf winner General Quarters. She showed courage in winning her career debut over the Arlington polytrack against next-out graduate Stephanie's Kitten (won turf maiden at Arlington next-out with 74 Beyer), but will have to prove her mettle on dirt this afternoon after breaking from a tricky inside post position.

#3 FUNNY PROPOSITION, a $275,000 yearling buy, is the first starter out of stakes-winner Humorous Miss (took the Hatoof Stakes at 1 1/16 miles on turf with an 87 Beyer). Trained by Mark Casse, Funny Proposition earned a solid pace figure when going gate-to-wire from the rail in her career debut at Churchill Downs. Note that the fourth-finisher from that race returned to graduate at Ellis Park with a 76 Beyer. Funny Proposition may attempt to take the race to My Miss Aurelia given an alert break, but needs a Beyer boost if she is to upset the chalk.

#6 ANNA SOPHIA, a $290,000 RNA as a yearling, boasts a precocious pedigree and may attempt to work out an outside stalking trip under Jose Lezcano. She won first-out at Belmont on June 30, but that race looks pretty weak in hindsight (the third-finisher is now 0-6 this year). Anna Sophia must improve off her 59 Beyer as she makes her first start against winners.

 

Selections:
1. My Miss Aurelia
2. Bellacourt
3. Millionreasonswhy

The Play:
My Miss Aurelia - Bellacourt Exacta
My Miss Aurelia - Millionreasonswhy Exacta

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*Meet record based on starts, wins, top pick (after scratches) in the money, and profit/loss of that day's play ($2 wager, scheduled surface only): 38-10-18 (+$8.00)