08/13/2011 9:02PM

Saratoga Spa Babies for August 14, Race 2

Email

Welcome to Spa Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile contest at the meet and hope for a tidy profit.

In past years, I would list the stats for each horse before writing up my analysis, selections and wagering strategy.  In order to streamline the content, this year's Spa Babies will showcase written analyses of each juvenile race.  Each analysis will include relevant statistical information.  Following the analysis, top three selections and wagering strategy will be provided.

***

Saturday's results:
Race 2: Tug of War finished sixth
Race 6: Clip the Coupons finished first
Race 7: Tiz Sardonic Joe finished first

***

MORE DETAILED STATISTICAL ANALYSIS WILL RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY'S CARD

***

Race 2
1 1/16 Miles (Turf)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-old fillies
Purse $50,000

 

Analysis:

3. REMARKABLE MOON (Lemon Drop Kid - Moravia, by A.P. Indy, February 18, 2009 in Kentucky, Withdrawn Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Grade 1 winner (10-24, 3.2M, 2-6 at two) that is 15-165 (9%) with juvenile debut runners and 35-285 (12%) with first-turfers. The dam was a route winner (1-9, 43K, 0-2 on turf) and this is her first starter. The dam is a full sister to Grade 2 route winner Adriano (4-13, 728K, 1-4 at two, 3-8 on turf) and is a half-sister to stakes-placed turfer Gold d'Oro (3-16, 149K, 0-2 at two, 2-13 on turf).

9. CAT GIRL (Discreet Cat - Famous Story, by Rahy, April 1, 2009 in Kentucky, $80,000 Fasig-Tipton Fall weanling, $160,000 Fasig-Tipton Summer yearling) is by a Grade 1 route winner (6-9, 1.6M, 1-1 at two). The dam was unraced and has foaled 2 winners from 3 runners (0-3 with juveniles, 0-3 with turfers). The dam is a full sister to Grade 3 winner Tubrok (5-41, 317K, 1-6 at two, 3-31 on turf) and is a half-sister to Grade 3 turf winner Sunshine for Life (4-17, 221K, 0-1 at two, 4-15 on turf). Finished behind Isra in career debut on grass before running a sneaky-good fourth on the main track here on July 25. There is some distance and turf pedigree here and Cat Girl can improve stretching out around two turns.

7. WELCOME DANCE (Henny Hughes - Choreograph, by Dynaformer, March 26, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a multiple Grade 1 sprint winner (6-10, 1.1M, 3-6 at two, won debut) that is 7-53 (13%) with juvenile debut runners and 2-22 (9%) with first-turfers. The dam was a first-turf winner (3-13, 70K, 3-13 on turf) and has foaled 0 winners from 1 runner (0-0 with 2yos, 0-0 with turfers). The second-dam is Grade 1-placed router Dance for Vanny (4-22, 167K, 1-4 at two, won debut, 2-12 on turf).

1. ISRA (Easing Along - Constant Companion, by Relaunch, February 17, 2009 in Kentucky, Withdrawn Keeneland November weanling) is by a juvenile winner (2-6, 56K, 2-3 at two) that is 0-4 with turf runners. The dam was unraced, but has already foaled multiple Grade 1 turf winner Forever Together (9-26, 2.9M, 1-1 at two, 6-18 on turf). Isra makes the two sprints to a route move, draws the advantageous inside post position and is really bred for this additional distance. She figures to show improved speed this time around and looms a strong contender.

8. BARGAIN BLITZ (Rahy - Freedom of Speech, by Danzig, March 30, 2009 in Kentucky, Withdrawn Keeneland September yearling) is by a Grade 2 route winner that is 45-417 (11%) with first-turfers. The Rahy - Danzig breeding "nick" has produced multiple Grade 1 turf winner Tranquility Lake and stakes-winning router Right Revved (22-102, 477K, 1-5 at two, 1-10 on turf). Bargain Blitz is a full sister to Grade 2 turf winner T. D. Vance (9-25, 576K, 1-2 at two, 8-23 on turf) and a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed sprinter Philippe (2-10, 86K, 1-4 at two). The unraced dam is a full sister to stakes-placed sprinter New Way (5-14, 120K, 0-1 on turf) and multiple Grade 2-placed router Treasure Island (2-6, 96K, 1-1 at two). The dam is also a half-sister to multiple Grade 1 winner Finder's Fee (7-27, 708K, 3-8 at two, won debut, 0-1 on turf).

5. WAIT TIL DAWN (Giant's Causeway - Path of Thunder, by Thunder Gulch, April 16, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a multiple Group 1 winner on turf that is 18-193 (9%) with juvenile debut runners and 37-358 (10%) with first-turf runners. The dam, a $1,200,000 yearling, was a multiple stakes-winner (6-18, 246K, 0-2 at two, 3-12 on turf) and has foaled 1 winner from 1 runner (1-1 with 2yos, debut winner, 1-1 with turfers, first-turf winner). Wait Til Dawn is a full sister to Grade 3 turf winner Excited (3-10, 244K, 1-4 at two, won debut, 3-9 on turf, first-turf winner). The dam is a full sister to multiple Grade 1 winner Spain (9-35, 3.5M, 1-6 at two) and is a half-sister to multiple Grade 2 winner Puerto Banus (5-20, 380K, 3-11 on turf) and Grade 3 turf winner Fantastic Spain (5-15, 362K, 5-15 on turf, first-turf winner).

2. DISPOSABLEPLEASURE (Giacomo - My Canada, by With Approval, May 2, 2009 in Kentucky, Withdrawn Keeneland November weanling, $45,000 Fasig-Tipton Summer July yearling) is by a Grade 1 route winner (3-16, 2.5M, 1-4 at two) that is 4-42 (10%) with juvenile debut runners and 2-16 (13%) with first-turf runners. The dam was unplaced from five starts (0-1 at two, 0-3 on grass) and has foaled 3 winners from 3 runners (1-1 with 2yos, 0-2 with turfers) including juvenile stakes-winning sprinter Romantic Hideaway (3-6, 128K, 3-4 at two). The dam is a full sister to juvenile stakes-winner Patriot Love (4-47, 359K, 2-7 at two, 3-35 on turf, first-turf winner) and is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Deputy Country (13-33, 341K) and Grade 3 sprint winner Riley Tucker (6-33, 582K, 1-3 at two, won debut).

6. ISLAND PRAYER (Pulpit - Cozy Island, by Cozzene, March 31, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a multiple Grade 2 route winner (4-6, 728K) that is 13%) with juvenile debut runners and 37-342 (11%) with first-turf runners. The dam was Grade 2-placed (3-15, 160K, 1-11 on turf) and has foaled 1 winner from 3 runners (1-2 with 2yos, 0-1 with turfers). The third dam is stakes-placed Jamaican Spell (2-7, 14K, 1-3 at two).

4. COASTING (Smart Strike - Cat Cay, by Pleasant Colony, January 27, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a Grade 1 route winner (6-8, 337K) that is 48-324 (15%) with juvenile debut runners and 54-503 (11%) with first-turf runners. The dam was a Grade 2 winner (8-25, 488K) and has foaled 1 winner from 4 runners (0-1 with 2yos, 0-2 with turfers). The dam is a half-sister to juvenile Grade 1 winner Strolling Along (6-19, 450K, 2-7 at two, 2-7 on turf, first-turf winner) and Grade 2-placed sprinter Lion Hearted (4-18, 191K, 1-3 at two).

10. BLUEGRASS SAPPHIRE (Bluegrass Cat - Radiant Ring, by Halo, February 10, 2009 in Kentucky, $22,000 Keeneland September yearling, $48,000 Pegasus February juvenile) is by a Grade 1 route winner (5-11, 1.7M, 3-4 at two) that is 2-44 (5%) with first-turf runners. The dam was a Grade 2 winner (11-33, 775K, 2-3 at two, 10-28 on grass (first-turf winner) and has foaled stakes-placed Earth Shadow (2-12, 68K, 1-2 at two, 1-9 on turf, first-turf winner), Grade 3 winner Catch the Ring (7-25, 918K, 0-3 at two, 1-6 on turf, first-turf winner), multiple stakes-placed Lucky Old Sun (2-17, 155K, 1-4 at two, 2-16 on turf, first-turf winner), multiple stakes-winner Seeking the Ring (3-7, 314K, 0-1 on turf) and stakes-winner Diamond Fever (4-26, 175K, 0-2 at two, 3-19 on turf, first-turf winner). Faced a runaway favored winner in career debut on dirt at Ellis Park, but has strong turf bloodlines. Must overcome tough outside post.

11. MISS RET (Senor Swinger - Momo's Favorite, by Mountain Cat, February 22, 2009 in Pennsylvania, $2,300 Fasig-Tipton December weanling, $8,500 Fasig-Tipton Select October yearling) is the first turf runner by a Grade 2 winner (10-37, 964K, 1-1 at two, 8-30 on turf, first-turf winner). The unraced dam has foaled 4 winners from 7 runners (1-5 with juveniles, 3-4 with turfers). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winning turfer Manila Magic (6-23, 163K, 0-2 at two, 6-21 on turf).

12. REFINING (Malibu Moon - Good Cause, by Giant's Causeway, foaled February 8, 2009 in Florida, $37,000 RNA Keeneland September yearling) is by a juvenile sprint winner. Refining is the first foal from the unraced dam. The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winner Tee Cat (8-37, 198K, 0-1 at two, 3-15 sprinting), multiple stakes-placed Chula (3-20, 69K), stakes-placed Anon (9-44, 167K, 0-2 at two, 0-3 sprinting) and stakes-winner Snug Harbour (6-16, 164K, 1-5 at two, 3-7 sprinting). Ran into three promising fillies in her career debut and should improve with barn that owns better numbers second-out than with firsters. Likely factors if this race is washed to the main track.

 

Selections:
1. Remarkable Moon
2. Cat Girl
3. Welcome Dance

The Play:
Remarkable Moon to Win and Place at 5-1 odds or greater.