08/12/2011 9:28PM

Saratoga Spa Babies for August 13, Race 6

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Welcome to Spa Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile contest at the meet and hope for a tidy profit.

In past years, I would list the stats for each horse before writing up my analysis, selections and wagering strategy.  In order to streamline the content, this year's Spa Babies will showcase written analyses of each juvenile race.  Each analysis will include relevant statistical information.  Following the analysis, top three selections and wagering strategy will be provided.

 

Race 6
6 Furlongs
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-olds
Purse $50,000

 

Analysis:

2. CLIP THE COUPONS (Congrats - Cajun Dawn, by Awesome Again, January 25, 2009 in Florida, Withdrawn Keeneland November weanling, $100,000 OBS Select August yearling) is by a Grade 2 route winner (7-26, 998K, 1-2 at two, won debut, 2-5 sprinting) that is 9-72 (13%) with juvenile debut runners (5-38, 13%, $1.61 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 2 juvenile debut winners).  The dam was placed in the slop (0-9, 6K, 0-4 sprinting) and has foaled 1 winner from 2 runners (1-2 with 2yos, debut winner, 1-2 with sprinters).  Clip the Coupons is a half-brother to Grade 2-placed sprinter Peace At Dawn (5-24, 182K, 1-4 at two, won debut, 5-18 sprinting). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winner Diplomat's Reward (15-101, 147K, 1-4 at two, 4-43 sprinting) and stakes-winner Dispersed Reward (3-21, 135K, 2-6 at two, 1-2 sprinting). The June 27 workout went .02 slower than trainer Chad Brown's juvenile filly Dorothy's Spirit (finished fourth in career debut on turf on August 5 with 57 Beyer).  The June 27, July 4, July 18 workouts match Brown's juvenile Gavett (finished tenth in career debut on turf on August 6 with 37 Beyer).  The July 18 workout went .04 faster than Brown's 5-year-old War Hoot (90 Beyer on turf). The July 18 workout went .04 faster than Brown's 6-year-old Unaccountable (89 Beyer on turf, 84 on synthetic, 64 on dirt).  Brown is 3-20 (15%, $1.28 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (3-9, 33%, $2.85 ROI at Saratoga).  Brown is 2-27 (7%, $0.75 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

4. HOW DO I WIN (Corinthian - Silver Crown, by Distorted Humor, April 13, 2009 in Kentucky, $120,000 Keeneland November weanling, $190,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a sire that was a Grade 1 route winner (1-2 at two, 0-1 sprinting) and is 2-24 (8%) with juveniles from his first crop of 2011.  The dam was a stakes-winning sprinter (6-27, 272K, 2-4 at two, 6-24 sprinting) and has foaled 1 winner from 2 runners (1-2 with 2yos, 1-2 with sprinters).   The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Silvery Topping (5-36, 150K, 1-9 sprinting), Grade 2 route winner Powerful Punch (10-59, 873K, 0-2 sprinting) and Grade 3-placed Powerful Goer (7-49, 394K, 0-1 at two, 6-28 sprinting).  Trainer Todd Pletcher is 1-6 (17%, $0.86 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles adding blinkers in maiden special weight dirt sprints (0-3 at Saratoga). Highly-touted baby disappointed in debut, but figures to show good early speed with the addition of blinkers.

8. MOONRUSH (Malibu Moon - Restless Cat, by Storm Cat, March 1, 2009 in Kentucky, $250,000 Keeneland November weanling, $325,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a juvenile sprint winner (1-2, 33K, 1-2 at two, 1-2 sprinting) that is 158-811 (19%) with juveniles.  The Malibu Moon - Storm Cat breeding 'nick' has produced stakes-winner Pinkarella (4-10, 258K, 1-1 at two, 4-9 sprinting). The dam was unraced and has foaled 0 winners from 3 runners (0-3 with 2yos, 0-3 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Wild Kitty (5-25, 127K, 2-14 sprinting), multiple Grade 3 winner Shy Tom (10-36, 812K, 2-5 at two, 0-1 sprinting), juvenile stakes-placed sprinter West Virginia (3-12, 73K, 1-3 at two, 2-9 sprinting) and Grade 1 sprint winner Pearl City (6-11, 367K, 1-2 at two, 6-10 sprinting).  The dam is a full sister to juvenile Grade 1 sprint winner Hennessy (4-9, 580K, 4-9 at two, 4-6 sprinting).  Trainer Wayne Lukas is 15-214 (7%, $1.67 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles in maiden special weight dirt sprints (6-92, 7%, $2.15 ROI at Saratoga). Overmatched against leading juvenile Overdriven in the Grade 2 Sanford on July 24.  Three weeks prior, he raced in the slower division of juvenile maiden special weights at Churchill Downs.  Should be up close to the pace early.

5. RIGHT TO VOTE (Political Force - What a Knight, by Tough Knight, February 23, 2009 in Kentucky, $20,000 OBS Select March juvenile) worked a furlong in 10.2 prior to the March auction).  He is by a Grade 1 route winner (4-17, 607K, 1-5 at two, 1-7 sprinting) that is 1-6 (17%, $2.30 ROI) with juvenile debut runners from his first crop of 2011.  The dam, a $12,000 weanling, was a juvenile stakes-winning sprinter (3-21, 62K, 2-5 at two, 3-20 sprinting) and has foaled 3 winners from 4 runners (2-3 with 2yos, 2 juvenile debut winners, 3-4 with sprinters). Right to Vote is a half-brother to juvenile Grade 2 sprinter What a Song (3-3, 179K, 3-3 at two, 3-3 sprinting).  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winning juvenile Time of Sale (3-15, 89K, 2-6 at two), juvenile stakes-winning sprinter Foxy Island (3-23, 67K, 2-6 at two, 3-20 sprinting), multiple stakes-placed juvenile One Sharp Tara (2-10, 22K, 0-5 at two, 2-6 sprinting) and stakes-placed sprinter Andi's Knight (3-8, 31K, 3-5 at two, 2-6 sprinting).  The dam is a full sister to multiple juvenile stakes-winning sprinter Tough Tara (2-12, 65K, 2-7 at two, 2-12 sprinting).  The May 17, May 24, June 2, June 8, June 16, June 23, July 7, July 13 workouts trainer Eoin Harty's juvenile filly Karma Police (finished fifth in career debut on July 22 with 40 Beyer).  The July 20 workout matches Harty's 3-year-old filly Storm Spell (finished seventh in 'n2L' allowance on August 1 with 28 Beyer).  Harty is 2-32 (6%, $0.64 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (1-16, 6%, $0.58 ROI at Saratoga).  Harty is 4-14 (29%, $2.54 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

1. SUPERSTRUCTURE (Henny Hughes - Kind Hearted, by Montbrook, February 16, 2009 in Kentucky, $35,000 RNA Fasig-Tipton Summer July yearling, $105,000 Fasig-Tipton February juvenile, Out Keeneland April juvenile) worked a furlong in 10.2 prior to the February auction.  He is by a multiple Grade 1 sprint winner (6-10, 1.1M, 3-6 at two, won debut, 6-8 sprinting) that is 7-52 (13%) with juvenile debut runners (5-37, 14%, $1.68 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 3 juvenile debut winners).  The dam was a sprint winner (1-3, 13K, 1-3 sprinting) and this is her first starter.  The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winning sprinter Silk Concorde (5-18, 271K, 2-4 at two, won debut, 5-16 sprinting), multiple stakes-placed Concorde's Appeal (5-31, 130K, 1-6 at two, 5-29 sprinting) and Grade 2-placed router Valid Notebook (8-28, 237K, 7-18 sprinting).  The July 5, July 12 workouts matches trainer Eddie Kenneally's juvenile filly Black Chocolate (finished fifth in career debut at Ellis Park on July 31 with 10 Beyer).  The July 20, August 2 workouts match Kenneally's juvenile Maan (64 Beyer). Kenneally is 11-61 (18%, $3.51 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (2-14, 14%, $1.17 ROI at Saratoga).  Kenneally is 6-27 (22%, $1.83 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

9. ODOM (Pulpit - Bronze Route, by Mud Route, March 1, 2009 in Kentucky, Withdrawn Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Grade 2 route winner (4-6, 728K, 1-1 sprinting) that is 38-294 (13%) with juvenile debut runners (3-21, 14%, $1.12 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 older debut winner at Saratoga).  The dam was a juvenile debut sprint winner (1-1, 26K, 1-1 at two, 1-1 sprinting) and has foaled 2 winners from 2 runners (2-2 with 2yos, 1 debut winner, 1-2 with sprinters).  Odom is a half-brother to juvenile stakes-winner Top Seed (4-23, 117K, 3-3 at two, 3-17 sprinting).  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed juvenile Box of Jewels (6-42, 109K, 1-8 at two, 6-35 sprinting), multiple Grade 1 winner Golden Ballet (6-10, 732K, 2-5 at two, 4-7 sprinting) and Grade 3 sprint winner Gilded Gem (4-10, 223K, 4-10 sprinting). The June 14, June 26 workouts matches trainer Richard Dutrow Jr.'s juvenile filly Buccella (finished fourth in career debut in $50,000 maiden claimer on July 29 with 47 Beyer).  The July 14, July 28, August 3 workouts match Dutrow's juvenile filly Trashi Diva (finished fourth in career debut in $35,000 maiden claimer on August 10 with 15 Beyer).  The July 20 workout matches Dutrow's 5-year-old Cantrushperfection (DNF in $25,000 beaten claimer on July 29 with 0 Beyer).  Dutrow is 14-60 (23%, $2.11 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (3-9, 33%, $2.86 ROI at Saratoga).  Dutrow is 2-15 (13%, $1.21 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

6. LOVE TO RUN (Pulpit - I Love America, by Quiet American, May 6, 2009 in Kentucky, $200,000 RNA Keeneland September yearling, $190,000 OBS Select March juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.2 prior to the March auction.  He is by a multiple Grade 2 route winner (4-6, 728K, 1-1 sprinting) that is 38-294 (13%) with juvenile debut runners (3-21, 14%, $1.12 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 older winner out of a Quiet American mare, 1 older winner at Saratoga).  The dam, a $200,000 weanling and $220,000 yearling, was a route winner (1-15, 48K, 0-2 sprinting) and this is her first starter.  The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed Apak (9-77, 235K, 2-5 at two, 7-64 sprinting), Group 1-placed turfer Adair (1-3, 86K, 1-1 at two), Grade 3-placed turfer Cyclorama (2-7, 108K, 1-1 at two) and stakes-winning turfer Dynaman (5-20, 128K, 0-2 sprinting). Trainer John Kimmel is 7-53 (13%, $2.05 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners (3-20, 15%, $3.06 ROI at Saratoga).  Kimmel is 0-7 with all debut runners in 2011.

7. BURNED BRIDGES (Bernardini - Steady Cat, by Storm Cat, February 11, 2009 in Kentucky, $50,000 Keeneland November weanling) is by multiple Grade 1 route winner (6-8, 3.0M, 0-1 sprinting) that is 8-45 (18%) with juvenile debut runners in 2011 (7-41. 17%, $1.66 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 4 juvenile debut winners, 1 older winner out of a Storm Cat mare).  The dam was Grade 2-placed sprinting at two (5-19, 224K, 2-3 at two, won debut, 5-18 sprinting) and has foaled 4 winners from 6 runners (3-4 with juveniles, 2 debut winners, 3-5 with sprinters).  Burned Bridges is a three-quarter brother to juvenile Grade 2 sprinter Jump Start (2-5, 221K, 2-5 at two, won debut, 2-3 sprinting).  The dam is a half-sister to Grade 1-placed router Union City (2-11, 183K, 0-4 at two, 0-1 sprinting). The dam is a full sister to juvenile stakes-winning sprinter Apollo Cat (4-16, 161K, 2-7 at two, won debut, 4-14 sprinting) and Grade 3-placed router Ozzie Cat (2-19, 127K, 1-7 at two, 2-10 sprinting).  Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin is 27-140 (19%, $1.62 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (6-46, 13%, $0.80 ROI at Saratoga).  McLaughlin is 3-24 (13%, $0.75 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

3. FIRST CORINTHIAN (Corinthian - Bird Cage, by Kris S., May 20, 2009 in Kentucky, Withdrawn Keeneland September yearling) is by a Grade 1 route winner (6-12, 1.2M, 1-2 at two, 0-1 sprinting) that is 1-18 (6%, $0.17 ROI) with juvenile debut runners from his first crop of 2011.  The dam was a sprint winner in the slop (1-23, 23K, 0-4 at two, 1-10 sprinting) and has foaled 6 winners from 8 runners (3-7 with 2yos, 5-8 with sprinters).  First Corinthian is a half-brother to Grade 3-placed juvenile Ninth Client (5-38, 133K, 1-6 at two, 1-4 sprinting).  The dam is a half-sister to Grade 2-placed Mountain Bird (2-18, 147K, 0-4 at two, 2-14 sprinting, multiple Grade 1 route winner Bird Town (4-12, 871K, 1-4 at two, 1-4 sprinting), multiple Grade 1 router Birdstone (5-9, 1.5M, 2-3 at two, won debut, 1-2 sprinting) and stakes-placed sprinter So Long Birdie (2-5, 60K, 1-2 at two, 1-3 sprinting).  Trainer Nick Zito is 14-126 (11%, $1.87 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (7-61, 11%, $1.57 ROI at Saratoga).  Zito is 1-31 (3%, $0.49 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

 

Selections:
1. Clip the Coupons
2. How Do I Win
3. Moonrush

The Play:
Clip the Coupons to Win at 5-2 odds or greater.