08/09/2011 2:48PM

Saratoga Spa Babies for August 10, Race 4

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Welcome to Spa Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile contest at the meet and hope for a tidy profit.  In past years, I would list the stats for each horse before writing up my analysis, selections and wagering strategy.  In order to streamline the content, this year's Spa Babies will showcase written analyses of each juvenile race.  Each analysis will include relevant statistical information.  Following the analysis, top three selections and wagering strategy will be provided.

 

Race 4
5 1/2 Furlongs
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-olds
Purse $50,000

 

Analysis:

7. RACONTEUR (A.P. Indy - Miss Kate, by Storm Cat, March 31, 2009 in Kentucky, $300,000 RNA Keeneland September yearling, $240,000 Keeneland April juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.3 prior to the April auction. He is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (8-11, 2.9M, 3-4 at two, 1-2 sprinting) that is 44-378 (12%) with juvenile debut runners (5-26, 19%, $2.34 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 2 juvenile debut winners, 2 debut winners at this meet, 1 older debut winner out of a Storm Cat mare). The A.P. Indy - Storm Cat breeding 'nick' has produced stakes-placed router Hockley (3-13, 142K, 0-5 at two, 0-3 sprinting). The dam was a stakes-placed router (4-17, 144K, 1-4 at two, 1-5 sprinting) and has foaled 3 winners from 3 runners (1-1 with juveniles, won debut, 2-2 with sprinters). Raconteur is a half-sister to stakes-winning turfer Katerbug (3-15, 119K, 2-4 at two, won debut). The dam is a half-sister to multiple Grade 1 winner Clear Mandate (10-31, 1.0M, 1-2 at two, 4-10 sprinting), Grade 2 winner Dream Scheme (8-27, 431K, 4-18 sprinting), stakes-placed Special Event (5-27, 111K, 2-10 sprinting), and multiple stakes-placed sprinter A Diehl (3-25, 219K, 0-1 at two, 3-22 sprinting). The May 24, June 6 workouts match trainer Todd Pletcher's juvenile Doctor Chit (finished sixth in career debut on turf on July 27 with 51 Beyer). The June 6 workout went .04 slower than Pletcher's juvenile Zow (finished first in career debut on dirt at Belmont on July 1 with 73 Beyer). The June 27 workout matches Pletcher's juvenile Big Creek (finished third in career debut at Belmont on July 1 with 47 Beyer). The July 26 workout matches Pletcher's juvenile Captain Webb (finished first in career debut on turf on July 30 with 72 Beyer). Pletcher is 62-269 (23%, $1.64 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (21-86, 24%, $1.97 ROI at Saratoga). Pletcher is 23-83 (27%, $1.92 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

4. WIN ALL (Tale of the Cat - Regala di Trieste, by Old Trieste, March 14, 2009 in Florida, $300,000 Fasig-Tipton Select August yearling, Out Keeneland September yearling) is by a Grade 2 sprint winner (5-9, 360K, 1-3 sprinting) that is 73-390 (19%) with juvenile debut runners (12-52, 23%, $2.43 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 7 juvenile debut winners, 1 at this meet). The dam was a juvenile route winner (1-2, 23K, 1-2 at two, 0-1 sprinting) and has foaled 2 winners from 2 runners (0-1 with 2yos, 2-2 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to multiple Grade 2-placed Forefathers (3-20, 200K, 2-3 at two, 2-12 sprinting) and multiple Grade 1 route winner Pioneerof the Nile (5-10, 1.6M, 2-5 at two). Trainer Seth Benzel is 0-27 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (0-11 at Saratoga). Benzel is 1-51 (1%, $0.41 ROI) with debut runners since January 1, 2010.

3. ELUSIVE STORY (Tale of the Cat - Elusive Honey, by Elusive Quality, May 18, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a Grade 2 sprint winner (5-9, 360K, 1-3 sprinting) that is 213-1130 (19%) with juveniles. The dam, a $32,000 yearling and $80,000 juvenile, was a winner (3-14, 111K, 2-8 sprinting) and has foaled 2 winners from 3 runners (1-2 with 2yos, 2-3 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to Grade 3-placed sprinter Mon Capitan (5-27, 111K, 3-20 sprinting). Trainer Ralph Nicks is 0-5 over the past five years with juveniles returning from 31-60 day layoffs in maiden special weight dirt sprints. Showed speed in the slower division of maiden special weights at Churchill Downs on July 3. Can be a pace factor again.

1. AFFIRMED WARRIOR (A.P. Warrior - Afirmada, by Affirmed, January 29, 2009 in California, $30,000 Barretts January short yearling, Withdrawn OBS Open June juvenile) is by a multiple Grade 2 winner (4-13, 548K, 2-5 at two, won debut, 1-2 sprinting) that is 0-18 with juvenile debut runners. The dam was placed (0-10, 17K, 0-6 at two, 0-9 sprinting) and has foaled 3 winners from 4 runners (1-3 with 2yos, 2-4 with sprinters). The second dam is multiple stakes-winner Some for All (7-21, 192K, 1-2 at two, 6-13 sprinting). The June 11 workout matches trainer Ken McPeek's juvenile Bunker's Ledge (finished third in career debut in $50,000 maiden claimer on July 31 with 58 Beyer). July 2 workout went .01 faster than Bunker's Ledge. The July 2 workout went .03 faster than McPeek's 3-year-old Cardsontablefaceup (69 Beyer on turf, 67 on synthetic). The July 22 workout matches McPeek's juvenile filly Bye Love You (finished second in career debut in $50,000 maiden claimer on July 29 with 50 Beyer). McPeek is 10-69 (14%, $2.30 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (0-14 at Saratoga). McPeek is 4-44 (9%, 1.22 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

2. VEXOR (Wildcat Heir - Real Clever Trick, by Yes It's True, March 10, 2009 in Florida, $10,000 OBS Fall October weanling, $90,000 OBS Select August yearling) is by a Grade 1 sprint winner (6-12, 424K, 1-2 at two, 6-12 sprinting) that is 76-366 (21%) with juveniles. The dam, an $85,000 juvenile, was unraced and has foaled 1 winner from 3 runners (1-3 with 2yos, 1-3 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to juvenile stakes-placed sprinter Miss Blues Sweep (7-35, 203K, 3-7 at two, 7-34 sprinting), multiple stakes-placed Living on the Line (5-42, 150K, 1-10 at two, 0-4 sprinting) and stakes-placed juvenile Stars Go Blues (3-24, 159K, 1-3 at two, 0-1 sprinting). The dam is a full sister to juvenile stakes-winning sprinter Bathed in Blue (2-4, 41K, 2-4 at two, 2-4 sprinting). Trainer John Kimmel is 4-21 (19%, $1.65 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles in maiden special weight dirt sprints (2-6, 33%, $2.40 ROI at Saratoga). Finished ahead of two next-out winners when chasing a runaway debut winner at Belmont.

5. SEEKER (Hard Spun - Classic Olympio, by Olympio, March 18, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a Grade 1 sprint winner (7-13, 2.6M, 3-3 at two, 4-4 sprinting) that is 2-16 (13%, $1.29 ROI) with juvenile debut runners from his first crop of 2011 The dam, a $27,000 weanling, was a multiple stakes-winning sprinter (6-19, 336K, 3-6 at two, 6-15 sprinting) and has foaled 3 winners from 3 runners (1-3 with 2yos, debut winner, 3-3 with sprinters. Seeker is a half-brother to multiple stakes-winner Classify (9-25, 336K, 0-4 at two, 7-16 sprinting) and stakes-winning sprinter Simplify (4-22, 261K, 1-3 at two, won debut, 4-20 sprinting). The dam is a half-sister to juvenile stakes-winning sprinter Mr. Felipe (2-3, 56K, 2-3 at two, 2-3 sprinting) and multiple stakes-placed Dewey's Trick (4-20, 180K, 1-10 sprinting). The July 13 workout matches trainer Steve Asmussen's juvenile Truetap (finished third in $40,000 maiden claimer over Woodbine's polytrack on July 30 with 34 Beyer). Asmussen is 57-382 (15%, $1.34 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (7-39, 18%, $1.72 ROI at Saratoga). Asmussen is 10-97 (10%, $1.18 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

6. QUARTERMAIN (After Market - Desert Radiance, by Desert Wine, February 12, 2009 in Kentucky, $65,000 Keeneland November weanling) is by a multiple Grade 1 turf winner (8-13, 903K, 1-1 at two) that is 3-16 (19%, $1.21 ROI) with juvenile debut runners from his first crop of 2011. The dam, a $40,000 juvenile, was a stakes-winner (6-28, 107K, 1-3 at two, won debut, 2-10 sprinting) and has foaled 8 winners from 10 runners (1-6 with 2yos, 4-6 with sprinters). Quartermain is a half-sister to stakes-winning router Wild Desert (3-10, 1.0M, 2-8 at two, 0-1 sprinting) and stakes-placed Kick'em Jenny (2-8, 104K, 2-6 sprinting). The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner King's Palm (in Mexico). Trainer John Hertler is 0-25 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (0-7 at Saratoga). Hertler is 0-28 with debut runners since January 1, 2009.

 

Selections:
1. Raconteur
2. Win All
3. Elusive Story

The Play
Raconteur - Win All Exacta
Raconteur - Elusive Storm Exacta

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*Meet record based on starts, wins, top pick (after scratches) in the money, and profit/loss of that day's play ($2 wager, scheduled surface only): 30-7-13 (-$22.60)