08/09/2011 3:45PM

Saratoga Spa Babies for August 10, Race 2

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Welcome to Spa Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile contest at the meet and hope for a tidy profit.  In past years, I would list the stats for each horse before writing up my analysis, selections and wagering strategy.  In order to streamline the content, this year's Spa Babies will showcase written analyses of each juvenile race.  Each analysis will include relevant statistical information.  Following the analysis, top three selections and wagering strategy will be provided.

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Monday's results:
Race 2: Goodtime Boy finished fifth
Race 4: Anonymous Donor finished third (off-the-turf)

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Wednesday, August 10, 2011

Race 2
5 1/2 Furlongs
Maiden Claiming ($35,000)
2-year-old fillies
Purse $25,000

 

Analysis:

4. FLAVOR GIRL (Northern Afleet - I'll Be the One, by Forest Wildcat, January 11, 2009 in New York, $25,000 Fasig-Tipton Preferred August yearling) is by a multiple Grade 2 winner (5-21, 626K, 1-3 at two, won debut, 3-11 sprinting) that is 36-220 (16%) with juvenile debut runners (1-18, 6%, $0.78 ROI with all debut runners in 2011). The dam, a $27,000 yearling, was a juvenile debut sprint winner (1-3, 28K, 1-3 at two, won debut, 1-3 sprinting) and has foaled 3 winners from 3 runners (0-0 with 2yos, 2-3 with sprinters). The third dam is stakes-placed Unsociable (2-12, 13K, 1-3 at two). Trainer Carlos Martin is 0-24 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden claiming dirt sprints (0-7 at Saratoga). Martin is 2-16 (13%, $1.83 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

8. TRASHI DIVA (More Than Ready - Slew Peg, by Fusaichi Pegasus, February 26, 2009 in Kentucky, Withdrawn Keeneland January short yearling, $14,000 OBS Select March juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.1 prior to the March sale. She is by a Grade 1 sprint winner (7-17, 1.8M, 5-7 at two, won debut, 7-9 sprinting) that is 34-302 (11%) with juvenile debut runners (1-31, 3%, $0.38 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, juvenile debut winner). The dam was a Grade 3-placed router (3-8, 84K, 2-4 at two, 0-1 sprinting) and this is her first starter. The dam is a sister to Grade 3 winner Slew Gin Fizz (4-12, 210K, 1-5 at two, won debut, 3-10 sprinting) and Grade 2 winner Igotrhythm (8-16, 416K, 2-3 at two, won debut, 7-13 sprinting). The May 21, July 8 workouts match trainer Richard Dutrow Jr.'s juvenile filly Buccella (finished fourth in career debut in $50,000 maiden claimer on July 29 with 47 Beyer). The July 21 workout matches Dutrow's 4-year-old filly Full of Gut (finished first in an 'n2x' optional claimer on July 28 with 85 Beyer). Dutrow is 4-23 (17%, $1.93 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden claiming dirt sprints (1-5, 20%, $1.61 ROI at Saratoga). Dutrow is 2-14 (14%, $1.30 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

7. I'D LIE (Songandaprayer - Make Yourself Go, by Track Barron, April 8, 2009 in Florida, $13,000 OBS Spring April juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.1 prior to the April sale. She is by a Grade 1 route winner (3-8, 380K, 2-2 at two, 2-3 sprinting) that is 132-881 (15%) with juveniles. The dam, an $11,500 yearling, was a winner (3-5, 33K, 2-4 sprinting) and has foaled 8 winners from 9 runners (6-7 with juveniles, 7-9 with sprinters). I'd Lie is a half-sister to Grade 3 winner Rochelle's Terms (5-24, 248K, 1-4 at two, 1-4 sprinting). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed Vicki's Vengeance (1-4, 20K, 1-2 sprinting). Trainer Wesley Ward is 9-30 (30%, $1.31 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles returning from 31-60 day layoffs in maiden claiming dirt sprints (0-3 at Saratoga). Of the four horses to return from the July 8 race at Monmouth, none reached the 40 Beyer plateau next-out.

3. MAYVILLE (Straight Man - Madame Rouge, by Montreal Red, March 1, 2009 in Florida, $2,500 RNA OBS Select August yearling) is by a Grade 2 sprint winner (5-15, 333K, 4-9 sprinting) that is 60-462 (13%) with juveniles. The dam was a sprint winner (1-8, 9K, 0-2 at two, 1-7 sprinting) and this is her first starter. The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed Native Son (10-44, 139K, 3-11 sprinting). Trainer Lisa Lewis is 0-1 over the past five years with second-time juveniles in maiden claiming dirt sprints. Broke slowly and was steadied on the backstretch of her debut. She passed some horses late and can improve with the experience under her belt.

9. DUCKY MCLEAN (Stormy Atlantic - Holy Christmas, by Holy Bull, February 22, 2009 in Kentucky, $35,000 Fasig-Tipton October yearling) is by a multiple stakes-winning sprinter (6-15, 148K, 0-1 at two, 6-15 sprinting) that is 49-435 (11%) with juvenile debut runners (9-56, 16%, $2.19 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 2 juvenile debut winners). The dam, a $100,000 yearling, was a stakes-placed router (1-5, 32K, 0-1 at two, 0-2 sprinting and this is her first starter. The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed No Passing Zone (7-68, 185K, 1-3 at two, won debut, 1-12 sprinting) and stakes-winning sprinter Double Down Vinman (16-49, 465K, 2-4 at two, 15-45 sprinting). Trainer Linda Rice is 6-30 (20%, $2.37 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden claiming dirt sprints (2-15, 13%, $0.97 ROI at Saratoga). Rice is 3-37 (8%, $0.92 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

2. CAN SHE RUN (Congaree - Jana D, by Aptitude, January 21, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a multiple Grade 1 winner (12-25, 3.2M, 0-1 at two, 1-3 sprinting) that is 7-90 (8%) with juvenile debut runners (1-12, 8%, $1.73 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, juvenile debut winner). The dam, a $6,000 yearling, was unplaced (0-2, $280, 0-2 sprinting) and this is her first starter. The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed juvenile Bold Feat (2-22, 136K, 1-6 at two, 2-12 sprinting). Trainer Carl Domino is 1-5 (20%, $7.08 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden claiming dirt sprints. Domino is 0-12 with debut runners since January 1, 2009.

5. EXPECT THUNDER (Thunder Gulch - Expected, by Concern, May 2, 2009 in Kentucky, $1,500 Fasig-Tipton Winter February short yearling, $4,000 RNA Fasig-Tipton Select October yearling) is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (9-16, 2.9M, 2-6 at two, 1-3 sprinting) that is 138-1055 (13%) with juveniles. The dam was unraced and has foaled 0 winners from 4 runners (0-1 with 2yos, 0-3 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-placed Bawdens (6-48, 152K, 0-1 at two, 0-13 sprinting) and stakes-placed sprinter Hillswick (5-22, 209K, 5-17 sprinting). Trainer Joe Aquilino is 0-6 over the past five years with second-time juveniles in maiden claiming dirt sprints. Broke poorly from inside draw in career debut at 45-1 odds. May want more ground.

1A. MY VIVA LOCA (Chapter One - Sassy Sails, by Captain Bodgit, January 29, 2009 in Florida) is the first starter from an unraced sire's first crop of runners in 2011. The dam, a $25,000 short yearling and $30,000 yearling, was unraced and has foaled 2 winners from 3 runners (2-3 with juveniles, 2-3 with sprinters). This is the female family of Belmont Stakes winner Stage Door Johnny (5-8, 223K, 0-2 at two, 0-2 sprinting). Trainer John Quiles is 0-2 over the past five years with juveniles on dirt (0-1 at Saratoga). Raced on deepest part of the track after breaking from far outside post, but made no impressing during the running.

1. ONE LOVELY LADY (Formal Dinner - Design Appeal, by Honour and Glory, February 7, 2009 in Florida) is by a multiple Grade 3 winner (7-39, 454K, 2-10 at two, 5-25 sprinting) that is 30-310 (10%) with juvenile debut runners. The dam, a $15,000 yearling, was unraced and has foaled 1 winner from 3 runners (1-2 with juveniles, 1-3 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Timeless Design (18-71, 404K, 2-6 at two, won debut, 4-21 sprinting). The July 12 workout matches entry mate My Viva Loca. Trainer John Quiles is 0-1 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden claiming dirt sprints (0-1 at Saratoga). Quiles is 0-17 with debut runners since January 1, 2004.

6. WESLEY'S AUNTS (Montbrook - Catch the Ghost, by Silver Ghost, May 5, 2009 in Kentucky, $30,000 OBS Select March juvenile) worked 2 furlongs in 22.0 prior to the March auction. She is by a multiple Grade 3 sprint winner (5-8, 373K, 5-7 sprinting) that is 191-1203 (16%) with juveniles. The dam was a sprint winner (1-6, 8K, 0-2 at two, 1-5 sprinting) that has foaled 4 winners from 7 runners (2-6 with juveniles, 3-7 with sprinters). Wesley's Aunts is a full sister to juvenile stakes-winning sprinter Phantom Income (2-9, 169K, 2-5 at two, 2-8 sprinting). The dam is a half-sister to juvenile Grade 1 sprint winner City Zip (9-23, 803K, 5-11 at two, 9-16 sprinting) and multiple Grade 1 winner Ghostzapper (9-11, 3.4M, 1-2 at two, 5-7 sprinting). Trainer Merrill Scherer is 0-30 over the past five years with second-time juveniles in maiden claiming dirt sprints. May have disliked sloppy track in debut effort.

 

Selections:
1. Flavor Girl
2. Trashi Diva
3. I'd Lie

The Play
Flavor Girl to Win at 7-2 odds or greater