08/30/2011 11:43PM

Saratoga: Spa Babies for Aug. 31, Race 7

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Welcome to Spa Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile contest at the meet and hope for a tidy profit.

In past years, I would list the stats for each horse before writing up my analysis, selections and wagering strategy. In order to streamline the content, this year's Spa Babies will showcase written analyses of each juvenile race. Each analysis will include relevant statistical information. Following the analysis, top three selections and wagering strategy will be provided.

Race 7
5 1/2 Furlongs
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-olds
Purse $50,000

Analysis:
5. MR. STYLE (Bluegrass Cat - Number One Girl, by Tiznow, February 7, 2009 in Kentucky, $60,000 Fasig-Tipton Fall weanling, Out Keeneland November weanling, $70,000 RNA Fasig-Tipton Summer yearling, $135,000 Fasig-Tipton Select October yearling) is by a Grade 1 route winner (5-11, 1.7M, 3-4 at two, 1-2 sprinting) that is 32-253 (13%) with juveniles. The dam, a $380,000 yearling, was placed routing (0-2, 4K, 0-1 sprinting) and has foaled 1 winner from 2 runners (1-2 with juveniles, 1-2 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winning sprinter Quick Draw (2-6, 57K, 2-6 sprinting). Trainer Todd Pletcher is 20-93 (22%, $1.05 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles in maiden special weight dirt sprints (5-38, 13%, $0.53 ROI at Saratoga). Chased J C's Pride, a promising juvenile that broke the track record here on July 27.  Tried all the way down to the line while easily second-best and should be a strong pace factor here.

2. OFFICER PRADO (Officer - Prado Lady, by El Prado, May 4, 2009 in Texas) is by a Grade 1 route winner at two (6-9, 804K, 5-8 at two, 5-5 sprinting) that is 100-548 (18%) with juveniles.  The dam was a winner (4-12, 40K, 3-7 sprinting) and has foaled 2 winners from 4 runners (0-2 with juveniles, 1-4 with sprinters).  The second dam is stakes-placed sprinter Jaded Lady (3-16, 98K, 3-13 sprinting).  Trainer Steve Asmussen is 31-123 (25%, $1.77 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles returning from 31-60 day layoffs in maiden special weight dirt sprints (4-15, 27%, $2.34 ROI at Saratoga). Improved second-out, as many Steve Asmussen-trained juveniles seem to do, and has the valuable experience edge over the likely favorite.

3. SEVEN LIVELY SINS (Stormy Atlantic - Carson's Star, by Carson City, February 8, 2009 in Kentucky, $22,000 RNA Keeneland November weanling, $70,000 RNA Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple stakes-winning sprinter (6-15, 148K, 0-1 at two, 6-15 sprinting) that is 49-440 (11%) with juvenile debut runners (10-63, 16%, $2.04 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, juvenile debut winners). The Stormy Atlantic - Carson City breeding 'nick' has produced Grade 2 sprint winner California Nectar (4-10, 275K, 2-6 at two, 3-6 sprinting) juvenile Grade 1 route winner Stormello (3-11, 700K, 3-7 at two, 1-5 sprinting) and multiple stakes-winning router Miss Atlantic City (3-7, 299K, 2-5 at two, 1-3 sprinting). The dam was a sprint winner (1-10, 22K, 0-5 at two, 1-8 sprinting) and has foaled 0 winners from 1 runner (0-1 with 2yos, 0-1 sprinting). The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winning router Jaramar Rain (5-23, 292K, 0-1 at two, 0-1 sprinting). Trainer Al Stall is 6-34 (18%, $1.11 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (0-5 at Saratoga). Stall is 7-35 (20%, $1.81 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

7. BENOFEAR (Malibu Moon - Queen Amira, by Forestry, April 14, 2009 in Kentucky, Withdrawn Keeneland November weanling, Withdrawn Keeneland September yearling) is by a juvenile sprint winner (1-2, 33K, 1-2 at two, 1-2 sprinting) that is 48-292 (16%) with juvenile debut runners (10-67, 15%, $1.52 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 6 juvenile debut winners). The dam, a $50,000 yearling and $75,000 juvenile, was a stakes-winner on turf (2-16, 88K, 0-3 sprinting) and this is her first starter. The second dam is multiple stakes-winner Lady Gin (6-20, 227K, 3-5 at two, 3-11 sprinting). The August 21 workout went .01 slower than trainer Dale Romans' 3-year-old filly Virtuously (76 Beyer on turf, 74 on polytrack, 72 on dirt). Romans is 15-122 (12%, $1.74 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (3-18, 17%, $3.34 ROI at Saratoga).  Romans is 3-30 (10%, $1.49 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

9. SILVER MAX (Badge of Silver - Kissin Rene, by Kissin Kris, March 8, 2009 in Kentucky, $20,000 Fasig-Tipton Summer July yearling) is by a multiple Grade 2 winner (7-16, 1.0M, 1-1 at two, 3-5 sprinting) that is 25-142 (18%) with juveniles. The dam was a sprint winner (1-6, 7K, 1-3 sprinting) and has foaled 2 winners from 5 runners (1-3 with juveniles, 2-5 with sprinters). Silver Max is a half-brother to stakes-winner True Kiss (4-21, 115K, 1-2 at two, 3-18 sprinting). The dam is a half-sister to Grade 3 winner Prince of the Mt. (10-51, 396K, 0-4 at two, 6-29 sprinting) and stakes-placed sprinter Mt. Rene (2-8, 36K, 1-2 at two, 2-6 sprinting). Trainer Dale Romans is 7-50 (14%, $1.85 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles in maiden special weight dirt sprints (1-6, 17%, $1.41 ROI at Saratoga). Took a ton of money in career debut and was compromised by an awkward beginning.  Those were maiden claimers, however, and he may face some heavy hitters in this special weight.

6. LURE OF THE SOUTH (Southern Image - Concolour, by Our Native, March 3, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a multiple Grade 1 winner (6-8, 1.8M, 1-1 at two, 2-3 sprinting) that is 6-63 (10%) with juvenile debut runners (4-22, 18%, $4.19 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 juvenile debut winner). The dam was a juvenile sprint winner (1-4, 7K, 1-2 at two, 1-3 sprinting) and has foaled 11 winners from 12 runners (4-7 with 2yos, 8-11 with sprinters).  Lure of the South is a half-brother to stakes-placed Sikkim (5-18, 128K, 5-12 sprinting) and Grade 1 router Evening Attire (15-69, 2.9M, 1-5 at two, 1-6 sprinting). The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Alstroemeria (3-11, 78K, 3-9 sprinting). The July 24 workout matches trainer Pat Kelly's 4-year-old Con the Cat (finished tenth in $35,000 'n2L' claimer on turf on August 4 with 55 Beyer; 58 on dirt). Kelly is 2-22 (9%, $2.84 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (0-8 at Saratoga).  Kelly is 0-2 with all debut runners in 2011.

4. MINOTAUR (Flashy Bull - Just Touching, by Touch Gold, March 25, 2009 in Kentucky, $15,000 RNA Keeneland September yearling) is by a Grade 1 route winner (5-19, 844K, 1-6 at two, 1-6 sprinting) that is 4-24 (17%, $1.59 ROI) with juvenile debut runners from his first crop of 2011.  The dam, a $120,000 juvenile, was unraced and has foaled 1 winner from 2 runners (0-1 with 2yos, 1-2 with sprinters). The second dam is Grade 3 winner Little Miss Fast (5-23, 178K, 2-9 at two, won debut, 2-12 sprinting). Trainer Graham Motion is 8-83 (10%, $1.75 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (0-3 at Saratoga). Motion is 3-31 (9%, $1.46 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

1. LE GRAND ARTISTE (Grand Slam - Artistry, by Theatrical, February 11, 2009 in Kentucky, $45,000 Keeneland November weanling, $63,000 OBS Select August yearling, Out Keeneland September yearling, $70,000 OBS Select March juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.1 prior to the March auction.  He is by a multiple Grade 1 juvenile winner (4-15, 971K, 3-5 at two, won debut, 1-4 sprinting) that is 47-379 (12%) with juvenile debut runners (5-55, 9%, $0.97 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 3 juvenile debut winners). The dam, a $130,000 yearling, was a turf winner (1-13, 61K) and has foaled 1 winner from 2 runners (0-1 with 2yos, 0-2 with sprinters).  Le Grand Artiste is a half-brother to Grade 3 turfer Kingship (3-20, 232K, 0-7 sprinting). The third dam is stakes-winner Honest Joy (8-26, 97K, 0-1 at two). The August 22 workout went .01 faster than trainer Michael Matz's juvenile In My Eyes (entered in today's eleventh race).  Matz is 2-44 (5%, $0.78 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (1-9, 11%, $1.84 ROI at Saratoga).  Matz is 3-18 (17%, $5.11 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

8. FULL (More Than Ready - Total, by Forest Wildcat, April 27, 2009 in Kentucky) is by a Grade 1 sprint winner (7-17, 1.0M, 5-7 at two, won debut, 7-9 sprinting) that is 34-309 (11%) with juvenile debut runners (3-40, 8%, $0.55 ROI with all debut runners in 2011, 1 juvenile debut winner). The dam was a stakes-winning sprinter (3-8, 155K, 2-3 at two, 3-6 sprinting) and this is her first foal. The dam is a half-sister to juvenile Grade 3-placed sprinter Barrier (2-7, 94K, 1-2 at two, won debut, 2-5 sprinting). Trainer Al Stall is 6-34 (18%, $1.11 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight dirt sprints (0-5 at Saratoga). Stall is 7-35 (20%, $1.81 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

Selections:
1. Mr. Style
2. Officer Prado
3. Seven Lively Sins

The Play:
Mr. Style - Officer Prado Exacta
Mr. Style - Seven Lively Sins Exacta