08/30/2011 10:39PM

Saratoga: Spa Babies for Aug. 31, Race 2

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Welcome to Spa Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile contest at the meet and hope for a tidy profit.

In past years, I would list the stats for each horse before writing up my analysis, selections and wagering strategy. In order to streamline the content, this year's Spa Babies will showcase written analyses of each juvenile race. Each analysis will include relevant statistical information. Following the analysis, top three selections and wagering strategy will be provided.

Monday's results:
Race 5:  Our Pink Ribbon finished fifth
Race 6:  Stock Fund finished fourth

Wednesday, August 31, 2011

Race 2
6 Furlongs
Maiden Claiming ($35,000)
2-year-olds
Purse $25,000

Analysis:
5. FANCY FARM (Forest Grove - Delacour, by Our Emblem, March 4, 2009 in Kentucky, $1,000 RNA Fasig-Tipton October yearling) is by a Grade 3 sprint winner (5-16, 281K, 0-2 at two, 2-8 sprinting) that is 4-30 (13%) with juvenile debut runners (3-18, 17%, $6.06 ROI with all debut runners in 2011). The dam, a $90,000 yearling and $18,000 juvenile, was unraced and has foaled 2 winners from 3 runners (0-1 with 2yos, 2-3 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to Grade 3 winner Stay Sound (7-28, 474K, 1-6 at two, 0-2 sprinting).  The August 18 workout matches trainer Robert Hess' 4-year-old Giarixa (finished ninth in $20,000 beaten claimer on turf on August 27 with 64 Beyer; 67 Beyer on polytrack).   Trainer Bob Hess is 0-2 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden claiming dirt sprints.  Hess is 0-12 with all debut runners in 2011.

6. MOREFORYOURMONEY (Value Plus - I's a Fact, by Is It True, March 20, 2009 in Kentucky, $14,000 RNA OBS Open August yearling, $32,000 OBS Spring April juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.2 prior to the April auction.  He is by a stakes-winning sprinter (3-15, 414K, 1-4 at two, 3-8 sprinting) that is 30-249 (12%) with juveniles.  The dam, a $6,500 weanling, was a stakes-placed sprinter (0-8, 32K, 0-3 at two, 0-8 sprinting) and has foaled 2 winners from 3 runners (2-3 with juveniles, 2-3 with sprinters).  This is the family of stakes-placed turfer Broadway (2-19, 42K, 0-1 sprinting). Trainer Mike Hushion is 1-5 (20%, $1.04 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles in maiden claiming dirt sprints. Showed good speed in career debut and looms a dangerous forward factor under Ramon Dominguez.

2. KING AND CRUSADER (Lion Heart - Sugarloaf, by Regal Intention, April 9, 2009 in Maryland, $8,000 Keeneland September yearling, $26,000 OBS Spring April juvenile) worked 1 furlong in 10.3 prior to the April auction.  He is by a multiple Grade 1 route winner (5-10, 1.3M, 3-3 at two, 2-2 sprinting) that is 88-557 (16%) with juveniles.  The dam was a juvenile winner (1-1, 21K, 1-1 at two, 1-1 sprinting) and has foaled 4 winners from 7 runners (0-3 with juveniles, 4-7 with sprinters).  King and Crusader is a half-brother to multiple stakes-placed sprinter Homesteader (5-22, 220K, 0-7 at two, 5-22 sprinting). The dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner McKilts (6-20, 260K, 1-4 at two, 2-8 sprinting).  Trainer David Fawkes is 11-61 (18%, $0.91 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles in maiden claiming dirt sprints (0-1 at Saratoga). Didn't have an easy trip in career debut and can certainly improve dropping a notch with that experience under his belt.

7. TWO LEFT SHOES (Wildcat Shoes - Contemplative, by Native Uproar, February 17, 2009 in Louisiana) is by a multiple stakes-winning sprinter (8-20, 352K, 3-4 at two, 8-17 sprinting) that is 5-52 (10%) with juveniles.  The dam, a $25,000 yearling, was a sprint winner (3-19, 27K, 0-2 at two, 3-16 sprinting) and has foaled 8 winners from 9 runners (3-7 with 2yos, 5-9 with sprinters).  Two Left Shoes is a half-brother to juvenile stakes-placed sprinter Intellect (6-27, 55K, 2-5 at two, 6-26 sprinting). This is the family of multiple stakes-winner Valam (21-109, 131K, 3-13 at two). Trainer Merrill Scherer is 0-9 over the past five years with second-time juveniles adding Lasix in maiden claiming dirt sprints. Adds Lasix after finishing a nose behind next-out graduate (48 Beyer in $15,000 maiden claimer at Delaware) Kid Knockout.  Shouldn't be too far off the lead heading into the turn.

8. HARRY CONSOLIDATOR (Consolidator - Gammy's Alden, by John Alden, March 21, 2009 in Kentucky, $12,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a juvenile Grade 1 route winner (3-10, 661K, 2-7 at two, 1-6 sprinting) that is 37-389 (10%) with juveniles.  The dam was a multiple stakes-winning router (8-51, 270K, 1-5 at two, 0-6 sprinting) and has foaled 1 winner from 3 runners (1-2 with 2yos, 0-3 with sprinters).   Harry Consolidator is a half-brother to stakes-placed router Johannesburg Star (1-13, 59K, 1-5 at two, 0-4 sprinting).  The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winner Lonesome Sound (9-42, 196K, 0-3 at two, 0-4 sprinting) and stakes-placed router Hay Gammy (4-19, 73K, 2-7 at two, 3-9 sprinting).  Trainer Doodnauth Shivmangal is 0-1 over the past five years with second-time juveniles adding Lasix. Overmatched in career debut against tough crew, but should improve adding Lasix and dropping in class.

3. TEXAS JOSH (Istan - Carmrachkim, by Go for Gin, April 1, 2009, Withdrawn Keeneland September yearling) is by a multiple Grade 3 winner (9-21, 461K, 1-2 at two, 1-5 sprinting) that is 2-15 (13%) with juveniles from his first crop of 2011. The dam was a juvenile turf winner (1-8, 21K, 1-3 at two) and this is her first starter. The dam is a half-sister to stakes-winning sprinter She's a Mugs (3-9, 111K, 0-1 at two, 3-9 sprinting). Trainer Nick Zito is 1-1 (100%, $8.60 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles going turf to dirt in sprints.  Didn't do much in career debut on grass, but probably deserves another chance dropping out of maiden special weights and switching to dirt.

4. PHYSICAL GOLD (Corinthian - Duchess Zea, by Ascot Knight, April 18, 2009 in Kentucky, $57,000 RNA Keeneland January short yearling, $40,000 Keeneland September yearling) is by a Grade 1 route winner (6-12, 1.2M, 1-2 at two, 0-1 sprinting) that is 1-26 (4%, $0.12 ROI) with juvenile debut runners from his first crop of 2011 (debut winner at this meet). The dam, a $53,088 yearling, was a stakes-winning turfer (2-14, 87K, 0-5 at two, 0-6 sprinting) and has foaled 7 winners from 9 runners (1-6 with 2yos, 5-9 with sprinters).  Physical Gold is a half-brother to Grade 3 winner A La Reine (5-14, 266K, 1-4 at two, 1-6 sprinting) and stakes-winner Molly's Pride (4-17, 118K, 0-1 at two, 3-13 sprinting).  The dam is a half-sister to juvenile stakes-winning sprinter Silver Ace (4-15, 60K, 2-3 at two, won debut, 4-15 sprinting), multiple stakes-winning sprinter Silver Set (6-21, 78K, 1-2 at two, won debut, 6-19 sprinting) and multiple stakes-placed sprinter Bold Nxs (8-46, 213K, 4-8 at two, won debut, 8-45 sprinting). The July 21, August 3 workouts match trainer Al Stall's juvenile Animal Spirits (finished second in career debut on turf on August 20 with 68 Beyer).  The July 27 workout went .02 faster than Animal Spirits. Stall is 3-14 (21%, $3.04 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden claiming dirt sprints (0-1 at Saratoga).  Stall is 7-35 (20%, $1.81 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

1. NIGHT MANEUVER (Orientate - Smoke N Shadows, by Smoke Glacken, March 23, 2009 in New York) is by a multiple Grade 1 sprint winner (10-19, 1.7M, 0-2 at two, 8-11 sprinting) that is 25-215 (12%) with juvenile debut runners (2-35, 6%, $0.38 ROI with all debut runners in 2011). The Orientate - Smoke Glacken breeding 'nick' has produced multiple stakes-winning Oneforthecrew (5-16, 36K, 2-3 at two, 3-10 sprinting). The dam, a $55,000 yearling and $155,000 juvenile, was a sprint winner in the slop (1-5, 30K, 1-5 sprinting) and has foaled 1 winner from 3 runners (0-2 with 2yos, 1-3 with sprinters). The dam is a half-sister to multiple Grade 3-placed Big Numbers (5-54, 342K, 2-5 at two, won debut, 1-5 sprinting). The dam is a full sister to Grade 3 sprint winner Carthage (11-27, 339K, 10-25 sprinting). Trainer Carlos Martin is 0-25 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden claiming dirt sprints (0-8 at Saratoga).  Martin is 2-18 (11%, $1.62 ROI) with all debut runners in 2011.

Selections:
1. Fancy Farm
2. Moreforyourmoney
3. King and Crusader

The Play:
Fancy Farm to Win and Place at 5-1 odds or greater